This study estimates the irrigation water requirement and irrigation water productivity (IWP) of dry-season crops across various sowing dates, and assesses the economic viability of different potential adaptation options. Our findings indicate that current farming practices require 25-48 % more irrigation water for non-rice grain crops, while optimal approaches and government recommendations (BARI/BRRI) lead to more efficient water utilization. IWP of potential DS crops following optimum sowing increased by 89-433 % under the current conditions and by 28-158 % under future conditions, compared to farmers' practices. Notably, achieving a higher grain yield per hectare does not always correspond to higher economic returns from the limited freshwater supply across crops. Our cost-benefit analysis (BCA) reveals a positive net present value (NPV, ranging from BDT 23,750-91,167) and favourable cost-benefit ratios (BCR > 1, ranging from 2.4 to 5.6 BDT over a seven-year period) for investments in deepening home-yard ponds for aquaculture and dry-season cropping across various sowing and transplanting options across farm types. Risk analysis results have confirmed that in the 80th percentile, every BDT spent on pond deepening for aquaculture and rice and non-rice dry-season crop cultivation returns between 2.8 and 9.8 BDT across farm types. We recommend diversifying crops using the optimal sowing/ transplanting options, alongside enhancing on-farm water storage since the optimal sowing option efficiently uses scarce freshwater and consistently performs better, and as a result, it has a more suitable window for sowing crops in saline coastal soil. This approach ensures increased farm income and mitigates risks associated with environmental stress challenges.

Gender responsiveness is a crucial element in achieving inclusive economic and developmental growth of an economy. A gender-differentiated analysis in determining livelihood diversification strategies is, therefore, important for developing gender sensitive policies. The study examined and presented the determinants of livelihood diversification for men and women smallholders' households in rural Pakistan. A multistage data sampling technique was used in selection and collection of the data from 148 men and 147 women households. Considering the three types of ordered structured dependent variable of livelihood strategies preferences (LC1, LC2 and LC3) ordered logit model (OLOGIT) was applied. The results revealed that there were some similarities and some differentials among men and women's for determining livelihood diversification strategies. The first differential was based on signs of the coefficients such as natural disasters, access to public transport and women role in building social relations showed varied nature of response for men and women. The second differential was explored on the basis of statistical significance levels, that revealed the factors that were highly significant for men seems to be non-significant for women and vice versa scenarios existed for most of the determinants of livelihood strategies. Like, the factors family labor, membership in any organization, social linkages, access to latest machinery and accessibility of credit were highly significant for men but non-significant for women. While only education, and family labor were the common significant factors in diversification. The role of formal financial institution was lacking in the study. Women's major livelihood sources was LC1-(on-farm) while men were more towards LC2-(off-farm) and LC3-(Non-farm) strategies. These differentials highlight the importance of a policy initiative to be taken to increase access and availability of assets and services to women households, improve their capacity to participate in non-farm sectors, and accelerate transformative changes at both local and policy levels.

Sustainable livelihoods in less developed countries are threatened by human, natural, physical, social and financial factors. Pakistan is also facing severe negative impacts of these factors in the form of climate shocks, market imperfections and insufficient formal credit availability on rural livelihoods. This study explores rural Pakistani’s adaptation to these threats by diversifying income sources and explores the determining factors for adopting specific livelihood diversification strategies. The study is based on a quantitative survey of 295 households in three districts of rain-fed rural regions of Pakistan’s Punjab with differing annual rainfall. Results showed that households mitigated against threats to their livelihood by having a diversity of income sources (Simpson Diversity Index = 0.61). Moreover, fractional multinomial regression modelling revealed that greater education was associated with a more diversified livelihood strategy, where income was predominantly derived from off-farm and non-farm livelihood activities. On the other hand, households with older members, more livestock and larger farm size focused their livelihoods on their own farms, or primarily diversified into an off-farm strategy by working on other farms. These findings underscore the importance of improved access to education and infrastructure for livelihood diversification. A policy that focuses on reducing low literacy rates in rural Pakistan may also provide new avenues of livelihood diversifications with enhancement of rural literacy rate to mitigate the risks associated with livelihood strategies of smallholders.

The lives and livelihoods of rural communities are affected by climate change in Pakistan. These impacts vary between households, localities and individuals of the same household due to a diversity of livelihood strategies and differing needs. The aim of this study, therefore, was to understand how gender may highlight vulnerability to climate change through a combination of complex and interlinked factors that results in different vulnerabilities for men and women. The study was conducted in three rain-fed localities of Pakistan’s Punjab that represented three different climatic zones namely high rainfall, mid rainfall and low rainfall. The qualitative research method was employed with the help of 30 key informant interviews (15 women, 15 men) that were undertaken to understand gender roles, responsibilities and livelihood strategies. Finding of the study revealed that there is an increased frequency and duration of extreme climatic events and natural disasters with great uncertainty about the rate of change. Women stands on the frontline of these disasters to bear its impacts but with limited and restricted access to human, financial and natural capitals, and this is driving an expanded vulnerability to climate change in study area. Overall, women were culturally and socially dependent on men in a way that increased vulnerability to climate change. It was observed that women empowerment could play an important role in building the resilience toward climate change; hence, voices of women need to be raised and heard. Women groups should be established in each community where they can come and discuss about their issues and suggest possible solutions. Overall, there is a need in improvement of livelihoods and strengthening the adaptation capacity by ensuring women’s access, control and ownership of resources. Women involvement should be considered in developing climate adaptation strategies and policies.

AbstractRice farming in Laos is the least commercialised within the Lower Mekong. Moreover, Laos has suffered the most from variability in production due to the high incidence of droughts and floods. Nevertheless, as in the region as a whole, there has been a remarkable transformation of rice-based farming systems and supply chains over recent decades. These farming systems have been undergoing a transition from subsistence-based to market-oriented production. Rice production is dominated by the rainfed lowland system and is still predominantly for subsistence production of glutinous rice, with only a small proportion marketed and even less exported. However, the cultivated area and especially the yield of both rainfed and irrigated rice have been increasing, contributing to the achievement of rice self-sufficiency at the national level. Moreover, rural livelihoods have become increasingly diversified as the economy of the region develops and opportunities for off-farm and non-farm employment increase.

AbstractRice-based farming systems in the Mekong Delta have been transformed over the last four decades. Needing to boost rice production after 1975, the government increased investment in water control and irrigation and promoted intensification of rice farming through green revolution technology, leading to widespread adoption of double- and triple-cropping systems. As a result, the area of rice increased from 2.0 million ha in the late 1970s to 4.3 million ha in 2016. The yield of the wet-season crop increased from 2 t/ha in 1975 to 5.3 t/ha in 2016. Total paddy production increased from 4 million t in 1975 to 24.2 million t in 2016, the increase attributable equally to the increase in area and the increase in yields. From being a net importer of rice in the 1970s and 1980s, Vietnam exported 4.5 million t worth USD 2 billion in 2016, 90% of which was produced in the Delta. However, the focus on rice intensification has shifted since 2000 as the impacts on farmer livelihoods and the environment have become apparent. Locking farmers into producing low-quality rice for export has not provided adequate returns, especially as demand has shifted in favour of higher-quality rice and more diverse diets. Intensive use of fertilisers and pesticides has led to soil and water pollution and reduction in wild food supply. Moreover, the “total management” of hydrology in the Delta has had major impacts on water flows, sedimentation processes, aquatic species, and land-use options. In response, the government has progressively relaxed its restrictions on the use of paddy lands and rice-based farming systems have become more diversified, with the increased use of paddy lands for non-rice field crops, orchards, and freshwater and brackish-water aquaculture. The current policy promotes high-quality rice, reduced rice area, further diversification of farming systems, and promotion of agro-ecological and organic agriculture.

AbstractDespite the widespread adoption of mechanised land preparation, improved varieties, and low levels of inorganic fertilisers, rainfed lowland rice production in Laos remains an economically marginal activity, with limited incentives for farmers to intensify production beyond household needs. This is a challenge for the government, which promotes rice intensification by setting high official yield targets. We analyse farmers’ decisions regarding the intensification of rainfed lowland rice systems in two lowland provinces—Savannakhet and Champasak. We demonstrate that farmers have selectively adopted a range of new technologies and continue to respond to changing incentives. However, this has largely involved the adoption of Low-Input, more labour-efficient, and more stable production systems rather than commercially oriented, High-Input, high-yield systems. We use activity budgeting and sensitivity analysis to explore the economic performance of several input scenarios, ranging from farmers’ practice to input levels required to achieve government policy targets. The budget models show that, given their resource endowments and the high degree of production and market risk they encounter, households in the rainfed lowlands have been rational in adopting a Low-Input system rather than intensifying rice production to achieve government yield and production targets. We argue that the strategy of diversifying livelihoods while maintaining a largely subsistence-oriented rice production system is likely to persist, given current economic trends.

AbstractRice has been central to the culture, economy, and politics of Thailand for more than a millennium, reflecting both the suitability of the natural environment for rice production and the historical origins of Thai agriculture in the migrations of rice-growing populations from southern China. Despite the growth of other agricultural industries since the 1960s and a decline in rice consumption per capita as incomes have grown, rice remains the dominant agricultural industry. For most of the post-war period Thailand has been the world’s largest exporter of rice, until being overtaken by India in 2017. Thai rice is renowned for its quality, including white rice and Thai fragrant or jasmine rice. Whereas the Central Region remains the largest producer of rice for the domestic and export markets, this chapter focuses on the Northeast Region, which lies within the Lower Mekong Basin. It is the high profitability of jasmine rice and the productivity of a related glutinous variety (RD6) that has permitted widespread commercialisation in the Northeast since the 1980s, lifting many rural households out of poverty. We analyse the broad trends in the commercialisation of rice farming in the Northeast in the context of the country as a whole, considering production, marketing, and policy dimensions.

AbstractIn the 1970s, small-scale, labour-intensive, low-yield, semi-subsistence rice farming predominated in the Lower Mekong Basin. Rural poverty and the threat of famine were rife. In the 40 years since, rice farming in the Basin has undergone a dramatic transformation. This can be characterised as “commercialisation”, meaning the opening up of semi-subsistence rice farming to domestic and international input and output markets and the corresponding adaptation of farmers to the associated opportunities and risks. This book is about understanding the processes involved in this transformation and the commercial opportunities and challenges of rice-based farming systems in the Lower Mekong in the 2010s, with a view to outlining prospects for the 2020s. The motivation for the research was to: (a) compare the current situation and trajectories of rice farmers within and between different regions of the Lower Mekong, (b) explore the value chains linking rice farmers with input and output markets within and across national borders, and (c) understand the changing role of government policies in facilitating the on-going evolution of commercial rice farming. This chapter sets the scene for the country studies that follow.

The cassava sector in South East Asia is a multi-billion dollar industry, with smallholder producers connected to final consumers via complex and diverse value chains. Public sector research conducted with farmers over several decades has generated technologies with the potential to improve farmer livelihoods. However, translating these research outputs into widespread adoption by farmers, with scaling beyond intervention sites, has had mixed success. This has prompted the question whether private sector actors in the cassava industry can have a greater role in knowledge transfer. We develop a framework in which value chain characteristics, as well as the inherent characteristics of technologies and farming communities, affect the potential for scaling of research outputs and widespread adoption by farmers. We apply this framework to an analysis of six contrasting case studies in four South East Asian countries, ranging from underdeveloped value chains around small-scale processing of animal feed to highly-commercialised international value chains for starch. We find that, in particular contexts, such as when farmer adoption of a technology generates increased supply to a single processor, the processor has an incentive to invest in the extension of research outputs to farmers in its supply zone. In other contexts, however, such as when there is intense competition among processors for smallholder output or where the benefits of the technology are not immediate, there is little incentive for private sector involvement. In all cases, we find that support from a knowledge broker, such as a public sector or non-government actor with the capacity to work with farmers, is also required. Hence, the private sector is not a panacea for generating research impacts at scale.

AbstractThe commercialisation of rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin has been at the centre of that region’s remarkable journey out of poverty and food insecurity since the 1970s. A development strategy that centred on opening rice farming to productivity-enhancing investments had the double effect of increasing the incomes of large numbers of poor rural households while generating a marketable surplus to supply the rapidly growing urban population at low prices. The growth in export demand further added to the incomes of rice farmers in the more productive parts of the Basin. Thus, a development pathway emerged that was driven by political necessity to be broadly based and inclusive. However, the very success of this pathway has created new policy issues, requiring adjustments in the long-term emphasis on the intensification of smallholder rice production. The growth in production has led to a decline in prices while costs have been increasing. This has led to pressure from rice farmers for price support. Related policy issues include the persistence of smallholdings, the growing preference for more diversified farming systems, the role of the processing and exporting sectors, and the changing physical environment in the Basin. This chapter examines policies influencing access to resources (specifically, to land, water, and technology), the management of farm activities (whether specialised in production of high-quality rice or diversified into production of non-rice crops), and the appropriation of value (as determined by interventions in the marketing and pricing of paddy and rice).

AbstractThis chapter explores constraints to rice-based farming systems in the rainfed lowlands of Cambodia and the role of different sources of irrigation in alleviating some of those constraints. The research was carried out in lowland districts in Takeo and Kampong Speu Provinces, representing a major lowland rice-growing region with high population density, small farm sizes, and severe production constraints. Three villages were selected with similar biophysical and socioeconomic environments but different degrees of access to irrigation. The comparison shows that on-farm and (where feasible) canal irrigation can greatly increase the intensity, diversity, and profitability of land use, without being seriously constrained by available family labour. However, the potential for irrigated cropping has not been fully realised due to scattering of plots, restricted investment in tube wells, and underinvestment in maintaining canals. Nevertheless, even these partially irrigated systems not only increased land and labour utilisation but improved soil properties, reduced the risk of a household rice-deficit, increased the production of a marketable surplus of rice, and increased the level and diversity of crop income. The resultant cash flow provided the necessary working capital to keep the cropping system turning over with minimal need for credit, while providing income for household needs. While outmigration from southern Cambodia will undoubtedly continue, the case studies show that the development of more intensive, diverse, and market-oriented farming systems based on on-farm irrigation can provide a promising alternative pathway for many rural households.

AbstractInitial efforts to introduce Green Revolution practices met obstacles in Laos due to the Vietnam War, early attempt to collectivise agricultural production, and limited investment in agricultural research. Faced with ongoing food shortages, the government embraced agricultural modernisation but lacked the resources to implement it. From 1990 to 2007, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and the Government of Laos built the nation’s capacity in rice research and developed improved varieties suitable to Lao farming conditions. The program has been credited with bringing the Green Revolution to Laos, supporting increases in rice production to levels of national self-sufficiency, and building national research capacity. This chapter traces the history and processes that have seen the development, use, and spread of improved rice varieties throughout Laos, particularly in the lowlands of the Central and Southern Regions. This history represents a departure from the Green Revolution narratives of other Southeast Asian countries, where the development and use of improved varieties was predicated on access to irrigation and fertiliser and favoured yield over other qualities like taste or aroma. Instead, efforts to improve rice production in Laos emphasised plant breeding based on local conditions and preferences—low input, rainfed production of sticky rice—and built the capacity of Lao institutions and researchers to continue rice breeding after formal project efforts ceased.

Farmers in Bangladesh face considerable risk due to fluctuations in biophysical and economic conditions, but the response to these risks is poorly understood. In particular, there is a need to better understand the endogenous management of risk in the rice/shrimp farming systems that have emerged in the inner coastal zone of Bangladesh. This paper draws on a case study of a typical rice/shrimp farming village in Khulna District to explore: (a) farmers' perceptions of risks and their management responses, (b) risk-return trade-offs within small-, medium-, and large-farm households, and (c) the role of other farm and non-farm activities in mitigating risks to household livelihoods. Farm-level data were collected through a reconnaissance survey, a village census, household case studies, and a sample survey of 73 households. Representative farm budgets were constructed for the three farm-size classes. The key performance indicators calculated were gross margin (GM), net income (NI), and GM per workday of family labour. The riskiness of the rice/shrimp system was assessed for each farm type using farmers' estimates of low, normal, and high yields and prices to specify triangular distributions. Cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for GM, NI, and GM per workday were generated. A whole-farm economic analysis was also conducted to assess the relative contributions of different sources of income for each farm type. With access to saline water for shrimp farming in the dry season and fresh water for rice in the wet season, farmers have developed and progressively adapted an alternating rice/shrimp farming system that has minimised the trade-offs between the two crops and provides a good return to household and village resources for all farm types. The system is subject to significant production and market risks, especially the shrimp component. However, farmers have clearly perceived these risks and ameliorated them through a range of production, marketing, and management strategies. With these risk management practices, the rice/shrimp cropping system is economically viable, given the current variation in yields and prices. The greater risk associated with the shrimp component was offset by the renewed stability of the rice component over the past decade, and the risks of the whole cropping system were offset by other farm and non-farm sources of livelihood. Development interventions need to work with farmers to provide further options (suitable rice varieties, solutions to shrimp disease, improved village and transport infrastructure) if this resilience is to be maintained.

The objective of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change and salinity on the economic viability of rice-based cropping systems under farmers' current management across current and future climate and salinity scenarios in south-west coastal Bangladesh. Detailed case studies were conducted in two contrasting coastal villages in Dacope Sub-district, Khulna District. Enterprise budgets were developed using APSIM-simulated and extrapolated yields together with crop management, cost, and price data obtained from the villages and estimated from various sources. The projected impact of climate change and salinization on the economic viability (profitability and riskiness) of most cropping systems was not pronounced. Thus rice-based cropping systems are likely to remain viable in both optimistic and pessimistic climate scenarios in coming decades, even allowing for salinization, because some of the positive effects of climate change were projected to offset the sizeable losses due to salinity. Moreover, where small yield declines were projected these were often offset by higher future prices. Sustainably-managed rice/shrimp cropping systems are likely to remain the most profitable option in locations with access to tidal saline water. In other sites, given adequate freshwater for irrigation in the dry season, rice/non-rice cropping systems were projected to be the most viable options, especially incorporating newer crops such as sunflower and maize. Dry-season rice and wheat were not projected to be viable options.

We explore the vulnerability to cyclones of different socio-economic groups and their individual and collective responses to cyclone-related disasters through case studies of two villages in southwest coastal Bangladesh. We take a political ecology perspective, drawing on the widely-used Pressure and Release (PAR) Model to structure our analysis of the physical exposure of the villages to cyclone-related hazards; the multilevel processes leading to the vulnerability of different groups within the villages; the differential impacts of two recent cyclones; and subsequent responses undertaken through the actions of individual households, collective action at the village level, and the government-initiated Cyclone Preparedness Program. We conclude that recognising the complexities of vulnerability to multiple, interlinked, recursive hazards is essential to developing better risk reduction strategies for the coastal zone. However, the root causes of vulnerability are embedded in the socio-political structures and processes that determine access to resources and influence in Bangladeshi society.

Coastal Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change and salinisation; hence, farm-level adaptation is critically important. Farmers' perceptions of and responses to environmental change were investigated in two villages in Khulna District. Perceived environmental trends included increases in temperature, extreme weather events, soil toxicity, erratic rainfall and scarcity of water for irrigation. Perceptions of climate trends were consistent with measured trends in Khulna. On-farm adaptation strategies included adjusting planting dates, excavating trenches in rice-fields, adopting new crops, salinity-reducing technologies, livestock-rearing and home-yard cropping. Non-farm adaptation strategies included wage employment, short-term migration and self-employment. Adaptation was facilitated by income-earning opportunities, training, and credit, and impeded by lack of access to water, markets, capital, and extension services. Farmers suggested policy support for dissemination of stress-tolerant cultivars, access to irrigation, and price stabilisation or crop insurance to assist adaptation. While the study shows an impressive degree of awareness and adaptation, external support is needed to increase adaptive capacity.

Climate change and salinisation present substantial challenges to the sustainability of cropping systems in south-west coastal Bangladesh. This is the third paper in a series reporting a study to assess the impacts of climate change and salinity on the productivity and economic viability of ten current and potential rice-based cropping systems in two coastal villages in Khulna District. In this paper, possible adaptations are assessed, including novel dry-season crops, changed fertilizer use, and changed sowing dates, across five climate and three salinity scenarios. Farmers' estimated, APSIM-simulated, and extrapolated yield distributions were incorporated in budgets for the ten cropping systems, using current and projected salinity levels. Current and projected future prices and costs were used to estimate different measures of profitability. Estimated variability in yields and prices was used to generate probability distributions for these profitability measures, permitting comparison of cropping systems based on profitability and risk. Adaptation through changed fertilizer use (higher or lower, depending on the crop) was projected to give higher returns for some cropping systems. However, larger improvements were obtainable with changes in sowing dates to avoid the worst stresses imposed by climate change and salinity. The loss of production of all crops except watermelon and pumpkin due to salinity was more than offset with changed sowing dates for 2030 and 2060 conditions, irrespective of season. With such adaptations, and allowing for risk, the rice/shrimp system maintained the top ranking in terms of net income per hectare in 2030 and 2060 and the rice/sunflower system maintained the second ranking. The rice/pumpkin/rice system ranked third for 2030 and fourth in 2060 while the rice/maize system moved up to third in 2060.