New sublineages of SARS-CoV-2 variants-of-concern (VOCs) continuously emerge with mutations in the spike glycoprotein. In most cases, the sublineage-defining mutations vary between the VOCs. It is unclear whether these differences reflect lineage-specific likelihoods for mutations at each spike position or the stochastic nature of their appearance. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 lineages have distinct evolutionary spaces (a probabilistic definition of the sequence states that can be occupied by expanding virus subpopulations). This space can be accurately inferred from the patterns of amino acid variability at the whole-protein level. Robust networks of co-variable sites identify the highest-likelihood mutations in new VOC sublineages and predict remarkably well the emergence of subvariants with resistance mutations to COVID-19 therapeutics. Our studies reveal the contribution of low frequency variant patterns at heterologous sites across the protein to accurate prediction of the changes at each position of interest.

The spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is arranged as a trimer on the virus surface, composed of three S1 and three S2 subunits. Infected and vaccinated individuals generate antibodies against spike, which can neutralize the virus. Most antibodies target the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and N-terminal domain (NTD) of S1; however, antibodies against other regions of spike have also been isolated. The interhost variability in domain specificity and relative neutralization efficacy of the antibodies is still poorly characterized. To this end, we tested serum and plasma samples collected from 85 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) convalescent subjects. Samples were analyzed using seven immunoassays that employ different domains, subunits, and oligomeric forms of spike to capture the antibodies. Samples were also tested for their neutralization of pseudovirus containing SARS-CoV-2 spike and of replication-competent SARS-CoV-2. While the total amount of anti-spike antibodies produced varied among convalescent subjects, we observed an unexpectedly fixed ratio of RBD- to NTD-targeting antibodies. The relative potency of the response (defined as the measured neutralization efficacy relative to the total level of spike-targeting antibodies) also exhibited limited variation between subjects and was not associated with the overall amount of antispike antibodies produced. These studies suggest that host-to-host variation in the polyclonal response elicited against SARS-CoV-2 spike in early pandemic subjects is primarily limited to the quantity of antibodies generated rather than their domain specificity or relative neutralization potency. IMPORTANCE Infection by SARS-CoV-2 elicits antibodies against various domains of the spike protein, including the RBD and NTD of subunit S1 and against subunit S2. The antibody responses of different infected individuals exhibit different efficacies to inactivate (neutralize) the virus. Here, we show that the observed variation in the neutralizing activity of the antibody responses in COVID-19 convalescent subjects is caused by differences in the amounts of antibodies rather than their recognition properties or the potency of their antiviral activity. These findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccine strategies that focus on enhancing the overall level of the antibodies will likely elicit a more uniformly efficacious protective response.

Infection by HIV-1 elicits formation of antibodies that target the viral Env proteins and can inactivate the virus. The specific targets of these antibodies vary among infected individuals.

Mutations in the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 allow the virus to probe the sequence space in search of higher-fitness states. New sublineages of SARS-CoV-2 variants-of-concern (VOCs) continuously emerge with such mutations. Interestingly, the sites of mutation in these sublineages vary between the VOCs. Whether such differences reflect the random nature of mutation appearance or distinct evolutionary spaces of spike in the VOCs is unclear. Here we show that each position of spike has a lineage-specific likelihood for mutations to appear and dominate descendent sublineages. This likelihood can be accurately estimated from the lineage-specific mutational profile of spike at a protein-wide level. The mutability environment of each position, including adjacent sites on the protein structure and neighboring sites on the network of comutability, accurately forecast changes in descendent sublineages. Mapping of imminent changes within the VOCs can contribute to the design of immunogens and therapeutics that address future forms of SARS-CoV-2.

Phosphatidylserine (PS) receptors are PS binding proteins that mediate uptake of apoptotic bodies. Many enveloped viruses utilize this PS/PS receptor mechanism to adhere to and internalize into the endosomal compartment of cells and this is termed apoptotic mimicry. For viruses that have a mechanism(s) of endosomal escape, apoptotic mimicry is a productive route of virus entry. We evaluated if PS receptors serve as cell surface receptors for SARS-CoV-2 and found that the PS receptors, AXL, TIM-1 and TIM-4, facilitated virus infection when low concentrations of the SARS-CoV-2 cognate receptor, ACE2, was present. Consistent with the established mechanism of PS receptor utilization by other viruses, PS liposomes competed with SARS-CoV-2 for binding and entry. We demonstrated that this PS receptor enhances SARS-CoV-2 binding to and infection of an array of human lung cell lines and is an under-appreciated but potentially important host factor facilitating SARS-CoV-2 entry.

Phosphatidylserine (PS) receptors enhance infection of many enveloped viruses through virion-associated PS binding that is termed apoptotic mimicry. Here we show that this broadly shared uptake mechanism is utilized by SARS-CoV-2 in cells that express low surface levels of ACE2. Expression of members of the TIM (TIM-1 and TIM-4) and TAM (AXL) families of PS receptors enhance SARS-CoV-2 binding to cells, facilitate internalization of fluorescently-labeled virions and increase ACE2-dependent infection of SARS-CoV-2; however, PS receptors alone did not mediate infection. We were unable to detect direct interactions of the PS receptor AXL with purified SARS-CoV-2 spike, contrary to a previous report. Instead, our studies indicate that the PS receptors interact with PS on the surface of SARS-CoV-2 virions. In support of this, we demonstrate that: 1) significant quantities of PS are located on the outer leaflet of SARS-CoV-2 virions, 2) PS liposomes, but not phosphatidylcholine liposomes, reduced entry of VSV/Spike pseudovirions and 3) an established mutant of TIM-1 which does not bind to PS is unable to facilitate entry of SARS-CoV-2. As AXL is an abundant PS receptor on a number of airway lines, we evaluated small molecule inhibitors of AXL signaling such as bemcentinib for their ability to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection. Bemcentinib robustly inhibited virus infection of Vero E6 cells as well as multiple human lung cell lines that expressed AXL. This inhibition correlated well with inhibitors that block endosomal acidification and cathepsin activity, consistent with AXL-mediated uptake of SARS-CoV-2 into the endosomal compartment. We extended our observations to the related betacoronavirus mouse hepatitis virus (MHV), showing that inhibition or ablation of AXL reduces MHV infection of murine cells. In total, our findings provide evidence that PS receptors facilitate infection of the pandemic coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and suggest that inhibition of the PS receptor AXL has therapeutic potential against SARS-CoV-2.

The error-prone replication machinery of HIV-1 continuously generates new variants of the envelope glycoproteins (Envs). Antibody selection pressures applied in the host can limit their persistence. The target specificity of antibodies elicited in different hosts varies considerably. Whether some specificities are shared and have affected the population-level evolution of Env structure is still unclear. We examined the historical changes in amino acid sequence of the gp41 fusion peptide proximal region (FPPR), which is not exposed on the Env trimer. For three FPPR positions, the residue found in the clade B ancestor was mainly replaced by alanine. However, the changes in alanine frequency at these positions between 1979 and 2016 followed different patterns; two positions maintained a historically-constant frequency whereas the third showed a gradual increase. To understand these patterns, we introduced alanine substitutions in the FPPR of primary HIV-1 strains and examined their fitness and antigenicity relative to the clade-ancestral form. The evolutionary patterns could not be explained by effects on Env fitness. Instead, the FPPR variants with a historically-constant alanine frequency exhibited a unique open-at-the-base conformation of the trimer that exposes partially-cryptic epitopes. These Envs were modestly but significantly more sensitive to poorly-neutralizing sera from HIV-infected individuals than the clade-ancestral form. Our findings suggest that weakly-neutralizing antibodies targeting the base of the trimer are commonly elicited. Such low-level antibody pressures do not exert catastrophic effects on the emerging variants but rather determine their set-point frequency in the population and historical patterns of change. IMPORTANCE HIV-1 infection elicits antibodies that target the Env proteins of the virus. The specific targets of these antibodies vary between infected individuals. It is unclear whether some target specificities are shared between the antibody responses of different individuals. Our data suggest that antibodies against the base of the Env protein are commonly elicited during infection and are contained in sera with low neutralization efficacy. Such antibody pressures are weak. As a result, they do not completely eliminate the sensitive Env forms from the population, but rather maintain their frequency at a low level that has not increased during the past 40 years.