Solar and wind energy sources present meaningful challenges for utility operators. These energy sources are subject to random exposure to cloud cover and variable wind conditions. Predicting cloud and wind conditions is fraught with uncertainty. Thus solar and wind power sources present important considerations of reliability. This paper develops and discusses a generalised methodology to incorporate renewables like solar and wind into the traditional energy mix for electric utilities in light of the reliability challenges they present. Solar and wind cannot reliably displace fossil fuel or nuclear power fully in the energy mix at present. However, pumped storage facilities retain the capacity to provide sufficient storage to stabilise renewable generation and assure reliability of service utilising currently available technology. As a result pumped storage capacity is the demand stabilisation method applied within the simulation set forth. The method presented also enables a utility to examine and model variance within the general shape of the demand for electricity through the simulation.

Renewables are a real challenge for utility operators, particularly solar and wind power. Renewables such as biomass, geothermal, and hydro are as controllable as fossil fuel plants. Hydro has its challenges if rainfall in the reservoir's watershed can't keep the reservoir full—but within reservoir depth restraints, output is controllable.

Solar and wind are unreliable sources of energy. Several years ago, there was an eclipse over Europe during calm weather reducing renewable (wind and solar) power to nil – without 100% backup, the lights would have gone out. Electricity demand is uncertain, but its uncertainty can be bracketed within known parameters based on an analysis of past demand. Meeting uncertain demand with reliable supply (fossil fuel, nuclear, hydro except in dry seasons) is the normal course of business for an operating utility. Matching up unreliable supply with uncertain demand is a newly emerging trend with the advent of renewables. At first, when solar and wind made minute contributions to satisfying electricity demand, the challenge was manageable. The challenge is becoming more prominent with the growth in the contribution of solar and wind to electricity supply. This chapter describes the risk of matching unreliability with uncertainty via a simulation of a utility with a notable commitment to renewables. Upon measuring risk, means to mitigate that risk will be covered.

This paper illustrates how to assess the risk associated with solar and wind farm energy creation by identifying the critical operational factors and then developing multivariate models. The study reveals that a dependence on solar and wind could place consumers at risk of interrupted service given the state of contemporary battery technology. Large scale electricity storage is not currently available which places a contingency risk on electricity generating capacity. More so, maintaining system stability where solar and wind play a significant role in generating electricity is a growing challenge facing utility operators. Therefore, the authors demonstrate how to build a model that quantifies uncertainty by matching uncontrollable supply to uncontrollable demand where a gravity battery may be installed as a buffer. This novel approach generalizes to fossil fuel and nuclear plant operations because demand fluctuations could be managed by storing surplus energy into a gravity battery to meet high peak periods.

This paper examines the feasibility of three scenarios for reducing the unreliability inherent in traditional and clean energy creation. One scenario uses pumped hydro to store non-peak energy from solar or wind plants. Another scenario investigates the use of pumped hydro for storing non-peak energy from gas and coal fired plants. Another scenario explores the possibility of selling stored energy as well as meeting peak demand for all types of energy creation methods. The authors used the action research technique with a case study in USA. They applied parametric and simulation techniques to develop several models. The models include variables representing base loads at plants serving a utility, the buying and selling of electricity contracts at appropriate times, and the possibility of diverting a stream to feed the upper reservoir of a pumped storage plant.

There is a great deal of public and government regulatory support for significant growth in renewables for electricity generation at the expense of fossil fuels, primarily coal. Unlike fossil fuels whose output is controlled by a utility dispatcher, solar and wind depend on exposure to sunlight and wind speed for determining their output. This chapter deals with the use of simulation to match uncertain supply of solar and wind energy with indeterminable demand using a pumped storage facility to store excess electricity generation and to supply electricity to cover shortfalls. A modeling template using @RISK simulation analysis is proposed. The challenge of fossil fuel plants coupled with solar and wind farms with a strong seasonal demand for electricity is addressed by determining the size of an upper reservoir of a pumped storage facility that would ensure reliable delivery of electricity throughout the year. Scoping of the project to identify courses of action that would reduce the size and the investment in a pumped storage plant are covered.

The researchers collected and examined 10 years of petroleum-related accidents in the state capital of New York (NY) to develop a preliminary model (N = 1,005). The goal of the research was to propose an evidence-driven methodology to inform urban environmental policy making and emergency preparedness planning. Albany, NY, USA, was a preferentially selected sample site since it was a large city in an environmentally sensitive region with controversial oil–gas fracking policies being debated within government. The objective of the study was to develop a predictive model from petroleum accident data using nonparametric inferential statistical techniques to avoid the constraints inherent of normal distribution assumptions. A statistically significant model was formulated and tested, which indicated that the probability of petroleum accidents in the gas–oil industry was almost six times higher than their occurrence by people in other groups, such as electricity generation, transportation, hospitals, universities, warehouses, government, businesses, and residences.

Wiley-VCH, Weinheim 2013, 254 pp., €24.90—ISBN 978-3-527-33409-4

Growing out of Roy Nersesian s energy courses he delivers at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, Energy Risk Modeling is a new, ground-breaking reference for those looking for simulation, decision trees, and optimization techniques for energy applications. The book is loaded with real-life examples that demonstrate how @RISK, PrecisionTree, and Evolver can be used to make better financial decisions within the oil and gas, electricity, and renewable energy industries. Roy Nersesian s easy-to-read, step-by-step approach makes his techniques accessible to anyone who uses Microsoft Excel. All examples covered in the book are provided in Excel spreadsheets. Topics covered include: Modeling payoffs of oil drilling using both PrecisionTree and @RISK Economic analysis of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export project where uncertain variables (cost of natural gas extraction, cost of liquefaction, cost of transportation, and the price of LNG in the intended foreign market) are modeled and simulated in @RISK. Optimizing an oil refinery to maximize profits and valuing a real option of purchasing a coal-fired plant using Evolver, shown to have a greater predictive efficacy than Excel s built-in Solver. Modeling solar panel and wind turbine power outputs by factoring cloud cover, temperature, time of day, and wind speed, respectively, while optimizing said uncontrollable energy sources with uncontrollable demand to closely match daily energy demand with power generated. Projecting hydropower output in terms of percent capacity using rainfall, evaporation, and damn leakage as probabilistic variables. Selecting the preferable biofuel project given that one project has both a higher return and higher risk profile than the other. Modeling daily electricity demand amidst uncertainty in the deregulation, time of year and day. Selecting which kind of energy plant to meet incremental demand based on modeling of capacity, costs, energy output of each source, and taxes and capital recovery factor. Projecting oil consumption with trend/regression analysis and oil prices under conditions of uncertainty. Managing the risk of energy portfolios with swaps, trailing stops, and puts and calls. Optimizing the structure of a loan used to finance the development of an oil field where the loan has no recourse to the other parties. Designing a royalty, ownership, and tax regime between two oil companies jointly developing an oil field.

This study discussed the theoretical literature related to developing and probability distributions for estimating uncertainty. A theoretically selected ten-year empirical sample was collected and evaluated for the Albany NY area N=942. A discrete probability distribution model was developed and applied for part of the sample, to illustrate the likelihood of petroleum spills by industry and day of week. The benefit of this paper for the community of practice was to demonstrate how to select, develop, test and apply a probability distribution to analyze the patterns in disaster events, using inferential parametric and nonparametric statistical techniques. The method, not the model, was intended to be generalized to other researchers and populations. An interesting side benefit from this study was that it revealed significant findings about where and when most of the human-attributed petroleum leaks had occurred in the Albany NY area over the last ten years ending in 2013. The researchers demonstrated how to develop and apply distribution models in low cost spreadsheet software Excel.

The International Association of Classification Societies (IACS), headquartered in London, is made up of ten classification societies such as Lloyds Register (LR), American Bureau of Shipping (ABS), Bureau Veritas (BV), China Classification Society (CCS), Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Germanischer Lloyd (GL), Korean Register (KR), Nippon Kaiji Kyokai (NK), Registro Italiano Navale (RINA), and the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping (RS), as well as the Indian Register of Shipping (IRS) as an associate member. The Council is the main governing body of the IACS and it meets annually to elect a Chairman and a Vice-Chairman for a one-year term, which rotates among IACS Members. The IACS is financed through membership fees and sale of publications. IACS plays a major role in transnational economic governance through its relationship with member classification societies to promote safety at sea. Keywords: American Bureau of Shipping (ABS); International Association of Classification Societies (IACS); transnational economic governance

The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (Intercargo) has the objective of promoting and protecting the interests of private, independent owners in the dry cargo sector of the shipping industry. Intercargo presents and communicates industry concerns to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS), and the European Commission to ensure that the regulation of shipping is done in a manner that is both effective and efficient, with the belief that the shipping industry should operate in a safe and equitable manner with due regard for high quality standards. The main source of financing for Intercargo is through membership fees with additional funding through the sale of publications. Intercargo's focus in the transnational economic governance of the shipping industry is to ensure a common set of rules to be applied globally. Keywords: Intercargo; International Association of Classification Societies (IACS); International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners; International Maritime Organization (IMO); transnational economic governance

The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) and the International Shipping Federation (ISF) are sister organizations, each with its own mission. ICS and ISF have essentially a common membership of national shipowners associations. National shipowners associations are primarily made up of merchant fleet owners and operators of a distinct flag. ICS Committees consist of representatives, experts in their respective fields, nominated by national shipowners associations and individual shipping companies. The ICS and the ISF is financed through its membership fees and sales of publications and online training tools. The role of ICS/ISF within transnational economic governance is to preserve the UN Law of the Sea, provide security at sea for vessels and seafarers, and maintain free trade. The trends and challenges that ICS faces include atmospheric pollution prevention, ballast water management, cargo safety, classification standards and competition regulation. Keywords: International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) committee; International Shipping Federation (ISF); national shipowners associations; transnational economic governance

The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) is one of the largest and most diverse private shipping organizations in the world. Thomas Cairns, a Newcastle-upon-Tyne ship owner, and Johan Hansen of Copenhagen were the founders of the predecessor organization to BIMCO. BIMCO's membership is classified into five different groups including Associate Membership, Broker/Agency Membership, Club Membership, Associate Membership for Educational Institutions, and Owner Membership. BIMCO's financing primarily comes from its various membership fees plus additional revenue from publications, conferences and public events, and courses on various aspects of shipping, maritime commerce and law. BIMCO plays several roles in the transnational economic governance. BIMCO's policy objective is for initiatives against terrorism to be pursued in an efficient and pragmatic matter with the burden of new responsibilities being shared between the maritime industry and national governments. Keywords: anti-drug smuggling programme ; Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO); club membership; Johan Hansen; maritime industry; Thomas Cairns; transnational economic governance

The purpose of the Permanent International Association of Navigation Congresses (PIANC) is to improve inland and maritime navigation through the advancement of technology and the dissemination of information associated with the planning, design, construction, improvement, maintenance, and operation of waterways and ports. There are several classes of membership in PIANC: Qualifying Membership, Corporate Membership, Platinum Partnership Membership, and Individual Membership. The organizational structure of PIANC is composed of the Annual General Assembly (AGA), the Council, the Executive Committee (ExCom), and the Secretariat. Each commission satisfies its role within transnational economic governance to further PIANC's strategic goals by networking with other commissions and organizations. The Inland Waterways Commission (InCom) has working groups involved in various activities such as maintenance and renovation of navigation structures and the design and sizing of movable control structures for inland waterways and harbours. Keywords: Annual General Assembly (AGA); Corporate Membership; Executive Committee (ExCom); Inland Waterways Commission (InCom); PIANC; transnational economic governance

The International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI) represents, safeguards, and develops insurers' interests in marine and related insurance matters. IUMI's membership grew rapidly with individual companies from 22 nations enrolled as members by World War I followed in 1926 by British and French companies. IUMI's membership applications are forwarded to the President and must be approved by the Council. Membership is limited to national marine insurance associations. The governing bodies within the IUMI are the Council, the President and Executive Committee, the Nominating Committee, the Secretary-General, the Technical Committees, and the Liaison Officers and Observers. The primary source of funds for the IUMI is its annual membership fees. IUMI plays a significant role in transnational economic governance through its various committees such as the Cargo Committee, Energy and Offshore Committee and Facts and Figure Committee. IUMI understands that the success of member organizations lies with human capital. Keywords: Cargo Committee; Executive Committee; International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI); membership applications; transnational economic governance

The International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (Intertanko) is an organization of tanker owners dedicated to promoting safe transport, clean seas, and free competition to ensure that oil is shipped safely, responsibly, and competitively. The precursor to Intertanko was spawned during the 1930s depression. Intertanko membership is offered to independent tanker owners who own or commercially manage crude oil, product, chemical, liquid gas carriers, and vessels used in offshore oil exploration and production. Intertanko holds meetings during spring and autumn when the Council of Intertanko is elected. The Council of Intertanko is responsible for establishing policy while the Executive Committee is responsible for implementing policy as well as supervising the management of the permanent secretariat. Intertanko finances itself primarily through membership fees. Intertanko's role in transnational economic governance is accomplished through the efforts of working committees such as Bunker-Sub Committee, Chemical Tanker Committee and Communications and Public Relations Committee. Keywords: Chemical Tanker Committee; International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (Intertanko); membership fees; transnational economic governance

As concerns over rising energy prices and potential shortages continue to grow, this comprehensive handbook provides a detailed analysis of the past, present, and future of all the principle energy sources - biomass, coal, oil, natural gas, hydro and nuclear power - as well as sustainable sources, especially fuel cell technology. Equally useful for students of energy and energy policy as well as policy makers and professionals in the field, Energy for the 21st Century begins with a fascinating survey of the early history and use of energy sources and the colorful expansion of Big Oil. It examines the evolving technologies for each source of energy, national and international policy issues, the effects of Middle East wars, disruptions from hurricane Katrina, and the growing energy demands of India and China. Written by an expert who is both an energy professional and a business educator, the book offers a comprehensive examination of the most current energy policies under consideration, with special attention to environmental concerns.