To undertake fault-based seismic hazard assessment, we need to accurately identify source faults and assess their slip-rate and kinematics through pertinent data collection. For example, converging slip vectors may be used to deduce whether isolated fault strands are connected at depth. Kinematic (slip vector) data can be collected through offset piercing points or from striations preserved on fault scarps. However, striations are surficial features and may therefore be readily eroded and not preserved or visible on degraded scarps. Tensional fracture networks are ubiquitous on bedrock fault scarps and extend deeper into the scarp, and therefore have a greater preservation potential when compared to striations. In this work we characterise fracture-scarp (F-S) lineation patterns across eight faults in Italy (Central Apennines) and Greece (Perachora Peninsula) to explore how these patterns relate to fault plane geometry and slip-vector.Various fracture-scarp (F-S) lineation patterns (including sinistral/dextral en-echelon arrays, slip-parallel/-perpendicular fractures, and conjugate sets) are recognised. These patterns show evidence of progressive growth during exhumation. This suggests F-S lineations formed near the surface as the footwall uplifts, with larger features becoming more connected and smaller ones remaining ‘isolated’. The orientations of F-S lineations align within a pure or Riedel shear geometry where the shear sense is related to the rake of the slip vector. We propose that the observed patterns are controlled by fault plane orientation relative to a 3D strain ellipsoid and the progressive reduction of effective normal stress during footwall exhumation. As fractures form under the same stress regime as striations, they can serve as a kinematic indicator even on highly degraded active fault scarps.

We report the first example where the timing of earthquake slip from in situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating of an active normal fault scarp can be verified using independently 14C dated Holocene coastal notches which are deformed along the strike of the fault. We have remodelled 36Cl data from the active Pisia-Skinos normal fault, Greece, published by Mechernich et al. (2018), which indicates that the fault slip rate fluctuated through time. We model the expected coastal uplift and subsidence induced by slip on the fault using elastic half-space models and surface ruptures observed following the 1981 Pisia-Skinos earthquakes. Coastal uplift is constrained by elevation measurements of Holocene coastal notches that have previously been dated using 14C by Pirazzoli et al. (1994) and agree with time periods consistent with Holocene climate stability. We mapped the elevations and numbers of notches along the strike of the Pisia-Skinos fault, including measurements made underwater for locations where fault slip has submerged the notches below the present-day shoreline. We show that the spatial patterns and timing of uplift and subsidence from the notches agrees with the timing of periods of high slip associated with earthquake clusters and quiescence associated with anti-clusters from the slip histories derived from 36Cl data, and with the uplift and subsidence derived from elastic half-space modelling. In particular, where modelled subsidence is highest, Holocene notches that formed between 6-2 ka can be preserved but are submerged. Notches could form at this time because the 36Cl data show that the Pisia fault had entered a period of relative quiescence with a slip-rate of

We present an in situ 36Cl dataset recording the exhumation of 27 active normal fault planes by earthquake slip for the central Apennines, Italy. We do this to constrain the characteristics of earthquake clustering and anticlustering across the entire extending orogen, and in an attempt to constrain the reasons why clustering and anticlustering occurs. We show that duration and magnitude of clustering and anticlustering, and their characteristics, can be explained by a model where the transfer of differential stress between faults and their underlying shear-zones, and between neighbouring fault/shear-zone structures, produces changes in strain-rates on underlying viscous shear zones which drive periods of rapid or reduced slip-rate on their overlying faults. We suggest that stress increase on an underlying shear zone produced by coseismic slip on its overlying fault could be the mechanism that initiates an earthquake cluster. We suggest that stress reductions on shear-zones from coseismic slip located across strike could be the mechanism that initiates an earthquake anticluster. The durations of anticlusters are controlled by the summed stress decreases through time on shear zones, because although these shear zones are slipping relatively slowly, eventually they will load their overlying fault to failure initiating a new cluster, with anticlusters induced across strike. Thus, there is dynamic feedback both up and down dip between faults and their underlying shear zones and crucially across strike between neighbouring fault/shear-zone structures. If the dynamics producing clustering and anticlustering can be constrained, it may be that observations of these phenomena should be included in probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) and also interpretations of regional deformation rates and crustal rheologies based on geodetic data. Multi-millennial clustering and anticlustering should become a subject for discussion in these scientific communities.

Loading and deformation during the interseismic period of the earthquake cycle is often considered to be constant for continental faults, therefore assuming that the short-term (annual-decadal) deformation is representative of longer-term deformation. Based on this assumption, geodetically-derived deformation rates are sometimes used to infer the slip-rates and thus seismic hazard of faults. However geological observations indicate that deformation and slip rates are variable over a range of timescales, and we present an observation of variable deformation across an active normal fault occurring on an annual timescale. The Pisia-Skinos normal fault in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece, is a well-known fault which slipped most recently during a sequence of damaging earthquakes in 1981. Using vertical deformation data, available from the European Ground Motion Service (EGMS), we observe uplift/subsidence of the footwall/hangingwall of the Pisia fault between 2016-2021. Of particular interest is our observation that the deformation is not uniform over the 6 year time period, instead there is an up to 7-fold increase in the vertical deformation rate in mid-2019. We hypothesise that this deformation is aseismic as there is no temporally correlated increase in the earthquake activity (M>1). We explore four possible causative mechanisms for observed deformation; shallow slip, post-seismic after-slip, deep slip on an underlying shear zone, and post-seismic visco-elastic rebound. Our preferred hypothesis is that the transient deformation is caused by centimetre-scale slip in the upper 5km of the Pisia fault zone, based on the magnitude and spatial extent of the deformation. Our results suggest that continental normal faults can exhibit variable deformation over shorter timescales than previously observed, implying that the interseismic period of the earthquake cycle on continental faults may be more variable than previously hypothesised. This also highlights potential pitfalls of using slip rates measured over short-timescales to infer seismic hazard.

Geodetically-derived deformation rates are sometimes used to infer seismic hazard, implicitly assuming that short-term (annual-decadal) deformation is representative of longer-term deformation. This is despite geological observations indicating that deformation/slip rates are variable over a range of timescales. Using geodetic data from 2016-2021, we observe an up to 7-fold increase in vertical deformation rate in mid-2019 across the Pisia-Skinos normal fault in Greece. We hypothesise that this deformation is aseismic as there is no temporally correlated increase in the earthquake activity (M>1). We explore four possible physical mechanisms, and our preferred hypothesis is that the transient deformation is caused by centimetre-scale slip in the upper 5km of the Pisia fault zone. Our results suggest that continental normal faults can exhibit variable deformation over shorter timescales than previously observed, and thus care should be taken when utilising geodetic rates to quantify seismic hazard.

The relationships between kinematics and fault geometry for the coseismic ruptures from the 24th and February 25, 1981 earthquake sequence in the eastern Gulf of Corinth (Ms 6.7 and 6.4) are analysed. The two earthquakes ruptured faults located across strike rather than along strike as typifies other earthquake sequences. In detail, surface ruptures formed on the sub -parallel Pisia and Skinos Faults, with an 8 km along -strike overlap zone, separated across strike by < 2 km. The largest coseismic offsets occurred in the overlap zone. The 41 -year -old ruptures are still well preserved as bedrock fault plane lichen -free stripes and colluvial ruptures, allowing detailed structural mapping at 213 rupture localities. A comparison between our measurements and Jackson et al. (1982) showed no overall consistent signal of post -seismic slip as some of our measurements were greater and some smaller than those recorded in 1981. The ruptures produced a single maximum asymmetric profile (Pisia: maximum throw of 223 cm) and a double maxima profile (Skinos: maximum throw of 109 cm and 130 cm). The shapes of the profiles differed in previous earthquakes on these faults, as evidenced by an older lichenfree stripe, implying non -characteristic earthquakes. Summing the two overlapping throw profiles across -strike reveals a single maximum symmetric bell -like profile. Using the above observations on coseismic offsets, kinematic information, and the geometry of faults, a rupture scenario has been proposed in terms of fault bends and corrugation orientations which suggests that parts of each fault may have ruptured in each earthquake.