Although time-varying Cox regression modeling approaches have been developed, exposure-response analyses for time-to-event (TTE) endpoints often rely on static exposure covariates and may overlook the real-world dosing variability and drug concentration fluctuations over time. To better characterize pharmacokinetic (PK) or pharmacodynamic (PD) effects on TTE endpoints, a methodology was proposed to integrate time-varying pharmacometric models with Cox regression in the non-linear mixed effects modeling software, NONMEM. Clinical trial simulations were conducted with different sample sizes and dose levels, employing a one-compartment PK model, a bathtub-shaped function for event hazard, and an Imax model for concentration-hazard relationships. Model parameters were estimated based on partial likelihood using the first order approximation method in NONMEM, and results were compared to those obtained from parametric methods under different baseline hazard assumptions. The performance of the models using static and time-varying exposure metrics was also assessed. In the absence of a pre-specified baseline hazard, the proposed semi-parametric approach delivered robust parameter estimates and aligned with the parametric method with the correct baseline hazard assumption. The semi-parametric method outperforms other parametric approaches with incorrect baseline hazard assumptions. Furthermore, the semi-parametric method using time-varying exposure metrics outperforms those using static exposure metrics. The proposed methodology successfully integrates time-varying PK effects on TTE endpoints in the simulation study. It offers a flexible framework in NONMEM and can be extended to include other pharmacometric models with ordinary differential equations, thus enhancing model-informed decision-making for assessing TTE endpoints in drug development.
ABSTRACT Large language models can execute pharmacometric workflows, but they make consequential domain‐specific errors when task instructions lack adequate details. This tutorial teaches pharmacometricians how to define self‐contained tasks that embed domain‐specific rules, verification criteria, and worked examples into each step of a pharmacometric workflow. These individual tasks are then organized into a structured task library where each task runs in a fresh LLM instance (with clean context), with information passed between tasks through shared workspace files. The tutorial covers context engineering, controlling what information reaches the LLM at each decision point, along with verification layers and methods to iteratively refine the task library. We demonstrate the approach on a synthetic population PK/PD scenario and provide the task library and implementation guide in the Supplementary Material.
Rozibafusp alfa (AMG 570) is a first‐in‐class bispecific IgG2‐peptide fusion designed to inhibit inducible T‐cell costimulator ligand (ICOSL) and B‐cell activating factor (BAFF). The pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) of rozibafusp alfa were investigated in two randomized, placebo‐controlled clinical studies: a phase Ia single ascending‐dose study (7–700 mg subcutaneously (s.c.)) in healthy subjects and a phase Ib multiple ascending‐dose study (70–420 mg s.c. every 2 weeks (q2w)) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Rozibafusp alfa exhibited nonlinear PK and dose‐related and reversible dual‐target engagement. Maximal reduction of naïve B cells from baseline (> 40%), reflective of BAFF inhibition, was achieved with rozibafusp alfa exposure (area under the concentration‐time curve from time 0 to time infinity (AUCinf) and AUC within a dosing interval from day 0 to day 14 (AUCtau)) above 51 and 57 days•μg/mL for the single‐dose (≥ 70 mg) and multiple‐dose studies (≥ 70 mg q2w), respectively. ICOSL receptor occupancy on circulating B cells, a surrogate PD end point for ICOSL inhibition, was directly related to drug concentration. PK/PD analysis showed > 90% RO at rozibafusp alfa ≥ 22.2 μg/mL (≥ 420‐mg single dose or ≥ 210 mg q2w multiple dose), with saturation occurring at higher drug concentrations. These results informed the design and dose selection of a phase IIb study assessing the safety and efficacy of rozibafusp alfa in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus.
A multistate platform model was developed to describe time-to-event (TTE) endpoints in an oncology trial through the following states: initial, tumor response (TR), progressive disease (PD), overall survival (OS) event (death), censor to the last evaluable tumor assessment (progression-free survival [PFS] censor), and censor to study end (OS censor), using an ordinary differential equation framework. Two types of piecewise functions were used to describe the hazards for different events. Piecewise surge functions were used for events that require tumor assessments at the scheduled study visit times (TR, PD, and PFS censor). Piecewise constant functions were used to describe hazards for events that occur evenly throughout the study (OS event and OS censor). The multistate TTE model was applied to describe TTE endpoints from a published phase III study. The piecewise surge functions well-described the observed surges of hazards/events for TR, PD, PFS, and OS occurring near scheduled tumor assessments and showed good agreement with all Kaplan-Meier curves. With the flexibility of piecewise hazard functions, the model was able to evaluate covariate effects in a time-variant fashion to better understand the temporal patterns of disease prognosis through different disease states. This model can be applied to advance the field of oncology trial design and optimization by: (1) enabling robust estimations of baseline hazards and covariate effects for multiple TTE endpoints, (2) providing a platform model for understanding the composition and correlations between different TTE endpoints, and (3) facilitating oncology trial design optimization through clinical trial simulations.
Summary measures such as progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are commonly reported in literature for oncology trials, while time to progression (TTP) and post progression survival (PPS) are not usually reported. A time-variant transition hazard model was developed using an ordinary differential equation (ODE) model to estimate TTP and PPS from summary level PFS and OS. The model was applied to published data from immune checkpoint inhibitor trials for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in a meta-analysis framework. This model-based method was able to robustly estimate TTP and PPS from summary level OS and PFS data, provided a quantitative approach for understanding the patterns of disease progression across different treatments through the time-variant disease progression rate function, and provided a summary of how different treatments affect TTP and PPS. The proposed method can be generalized to characterize and quantify multiple time-to-event endpoints jointly in oncology trials and improve our understanding of disease prognostics for different treatments.
Background: Romiplostim, a subcutaneous treatment for adult ITP, uses a platelet response-guided dose adjustment algorithm (USPI dosing, Table 1) to maintain patients' platelet count (PC). Romiplostim was recently approved for patients with ITP ≤ 12 months from diagnosis.
Background and Objective: Romiplostim, is a TPO agonist approved for the treatment for adult ITP. It follows a weight-based and platelet response-guided dose titration algorithm to maintain patients' platelet counts (PC) between 50 and 200x10 9/L, after which a maintenance dose is administered once weekly to keep platelet counts within the target range. While self-administration of romiplostim maintenance dose has been approved in EU for adult patients, in the US romiplostim is only approved for weekly administration by a healthcare provider (HCP) using an 0.01 mL graduation syringe to ensure dosing accuracy; a dose tolerance margin of romiplostim has never been investigated before. The following work explores the impact of dosing tolerance on PC to assess the feasibility of romiplostim self-administration in adult ITP patients.
Purpose To model absolute neutrophil count (ANC) suppression in response to acute radiation (AR) exposure and evaluate ANC time course as a predictor of overall survival (OS) in response to AR exposure with or without treatment with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor in nonhuman primates. Methods Source data were obtained from two pivotal studies conducted in rhesus macaques exposed to 750 cGy of whole body irradiation on day 0 that received either placebo, daily filgrastim, or pegfilgrastim (days 1 and 8 after irradiation). Animals were observed for 60 days with ANC measured every 1 to 2 days. The population model of ANC response to AR and the link between observed ANC time course and OS consisted of three submodels characterizing injury due to radiation, granulopoiesis, and a time-to-event model of OS. Results The ANC response model accurately described the effects of AR exposure on the duration of neutropenia. ANC was a valid surrogate for survival because it explained 76% (95% CI, 41%–97%) and 73.2% (95% CI, 38.7%–99.9%) of the treatment effect for filgrastim and pegfilgrastim, respectively. Conclusion The current model linking radiation injury to neutropenia and ANC time course to OS can be used as a basis for translating these effects to humans.
Background: Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) is an acute illness caused by exposure to a high dose of penetrating radiation over a short period of time. Hematopoietic subsyndrome of ARS (HS-ARS) is characterized by dose dependent bone marrow depression leading to lymphopenia, neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, and anemia. Death due to HS-ARS from infection or excessive bleeding usually occurs within 2 to 3 weeks. Duration of thrombocytopenia is a predictor of overall survival (OS) in irradiated animal models, suggesting that a treatment for thrombocytopenia may increase survival in humans with HS-ARS. Romiplostim, a thrombopoietin receptor agonist, treatment resulted in prevention of severe thrombocytopenia and increased OS in irradiated animals. As human clinical trials for HS-ARS are not feasible or ethical, a romiplostim pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD)-OS model for irradiated humans was developed. The model, informed by PKPD data in healthy/irradiated rhesus monkeys (RM) and healthy volunteers (HV), was subsequently used to predict the survival benefit of romiplostim relative to placebo in humans with HS-ARS. Methods: A PKPD model of romiplostim exposure-platelet response in healthy RM was developed and updated with radiation parameters to estimate the radiation effects on thrombopoiesis, on PKPD of romiplostim, and on differences in platelet response due to sex and body weight (Pritchard-Bell, ACoP11, 2020). A parametric time-to-event model relating platelet time course to OS in irradiated RM with/without romiplostim treatment was developed to quantify the impact of platelet response on OS (Jones, ACoP11, 2020). To extrapolate radiation effects to humans, romiplostim PKPD radiation parameters and radiation effects estimated from irradiated RM were applied to a romiplostim HV PKPD model. The extrapolated irradiated human PKPD model and irradiated RM OS model were combined and calibrated against published historical mortality data of humans exposed to acute radiation (Scott BR 1990). Following calibration, the extrapolated irradiated human PKPD and OS models were used to conduct simulations of OS in irradiated humans receiving romiplostim or placebo treatment. Relative survival benefit (RSB) of romiplostim, proportion of romiplostim treated humans surviving relative to placebo treated humans post radiation exposure, was summarized for various romiplostim doses (1 [initiation dose per label], 3, or 10 µg/kg [maximum dose per label]) and treatment scenarios (time after irradiation, adult vs pediatric) based on simulations of 10,000 humans/scenario randomized 1:1 to receive romiplostim or placebo. Results: An HV PKPD model of thrombopoiesis was updated to incorporate radiation specific scaling factors estimated from irradiated RM on romiplostim pharmacokinetic parameters and platelet lifespan, nonlinear inhibitory effect of radiation dose on megakaryocyte production, treatment effect of romiplostim on platelet lifespan, radiation sensitivity and radiation intensity. The extrapolated PKPD model for irradiated humans combined with the OS model from irradiated RM was calibrated with a scaling factor of 1.24 on radiation parameters to result in 50% survival 60 days post radiation exposure for humans exposed to a 3.07 Gy radiation dose (1 Gy/hr over 3.07 hr) consistent with published data. The calibrated OS model was used to simulate OS following romiplostim treatment 24 hours post irradiation and predicted 75% (RSB: 1.5), 80% (RSB: 1.6), and 87% (RSB: 1.7) survival on day 60, for romiplostim doses of at 1, 3, and 10 µg/kg, respectively compared to 50% survival for placebo. Percent survival was >75% when 10 µg/kg romiplostim was administered 24, 48, or 72 hours post irradiation and when administered to pediatric sub-groups (0-2, >2-6, >6-12, >12-18). Conclusions: A PKPD model of romiplostim exposure-response in irradiated humans was used to predict platelet response in humans with HS-ARS with/without treatment with romiplostim and was combined with an OS model to simulate 60-day survival in humans with HS-ARS. Simulations demonstrated the robust survival benefit of a single 10 µg/kg romiplostim dose compared with placebo in both adult and pediatric humans with HS-ARS following an acute radiation event. Selection of a romiplostim dose for treatment of HS-ARS is pending review of the irradiated RM studies and subsequent modeling and simulation analyses by the FDA. Disclosures Doshi: Amgen Inc: Current Employment. Jones:Amgen Inc: Current Employment. Pritchard-Bell:Amgen Inc: Current Employment. Park:Amgen Inc: Current Employment. Olsson Gisleskog:POG Pharmacometrics Ltd: Current Employment.
Purpose: Evaluation of the pharmacodynamics (PD) and pharmacokinetics (PK) of romiplostim alone and in combination with pegfilgrastim in a non-human primate (NHP) model of acute radiation syndrome (ARS). Materials and methods: Male and female rhesus macaques were subjected to Cobalt-60 gamma irradiation, at a dose of 550 cGy 24 h prior to subcutaneous administration of either romiplostim alone as a single (2.5 or 5.0 mg/kg on Day 1) or repeat dose (5.0 mg/kg on Days 1 and 8), pegfilgrastim alone as a repeat dose (0.3 mu g/kg on Day 1 and 8), or a combination of both agents (romiplostim 5.0 mg/kg on Day 1; pegfilgrastim 0.3 mu g/kg on Days 1 and 8). Clinical outcome, hematological parameters and PK were assessed throughout the 45 d study period post-irradiation. Results: Administration of romiplostim, pegfilgrastim or the combination of both resulted in significant improvements in hematological parameters, notably prevention of severe thrombocytopenia, compared with irradiated, vehicle control-treated NHPs. The largest hematologic benefit was observed when romiplostim and pegfilgrastim were administered as a combination therapy with much greater effects on both platelet and neutrophil recovery following irradiation compared to single agents alone. Conclusions: These results indicate that romiplostim alone or in combination with pegfilgrastim is effective at improving hematological parameters in an NHP model of ARS. This study supports further study of romiplostim as a medical countermeasure to improve primary hemostasis and survival in ARS.
Blinatumomab (BLINCYTO®) is a novel bispecific T cell engager (BiTE®) approved in the USA for the treatment of relapsed or refractory B cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in children and adults, as well as minimal residual disease ALL in adults. This analysis characterized the population pharmacokinetics of intravenous blinatumomab in pediatric and adult patients. A total of 2417 serum concentrations of blinatumomab from 674 patients, including adult (n = 628) and pediatric patients (n = 46), from eight clinical studies were analyzed. The impact of covariates on pharmacokinetic parameters were explored, and significant covariates were further evaluated using a simulation approach. Blinatumomab pharmacokinetics were described by a one-compartment linear model with first-order elimination, a clearance (CL) of 2.22 L/h, and a central volume of 5.98 L. A statistically significant effect of body surface area (BSA) on CL was observed. The smallest BSA of 0.37 m2 in the pediatric population was associated with a 63% reduction in blinatumomab systemic CL, relative to an adult patient with the median BSA (1.88 m2), supporting the use of BSA-based dosing in patients of lower bodyweight. The BSA effect was minimal, with a ≤ 25% change in CL over the range of BSA in adults, supporting no need for BSA-based dosing. Blinatumomab pharmacokinetics were adequately described by a one-compartment linear model with first-order elimination. No covariates other than BSA on CL were identified as significant. BSA-based dosing should be considered for lightweight patients to minimize inter-subject variability in blinatumomab exposure.
AimsThe relationship between blinatumomab exposure and efficacy endpoints (occurrence of complete remission [CR] and duration of overall survival [OS]) or adverse events (occurrence of cytokine release syndrome [CRS] and neurological events) were investigated in adult patients with relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (r/r ALL) receiving blinatumomab or standard of care (SOC) chemotherapy to evaluate appropriateness of the blinatumomab dosing regimen.MethodsExposure, efficacy and safety data from adult patients (n = 646) with r/r ALL receiving stepwise (9 then 28 μg/day, 4‐week cycle) continuous intravenous infusion (n = 537) of blinatumomab or SOC (n = 109) chemotherapy were pooled from phase 2 and 3 studies. The occurrence of CR, neurological and CRS events, and duration of OS were analysed using Cox proportional hazards models or logistic regression, as appropriate. Confounding factors were tested multivariately as needed.ResultsBlinatumomab steady‐state concentration following 28 μg/day dosing was associated with the probability of achieving CR (odds ratio and 95% confidence interval: 1.073 [1.033–1.114]), and a longer duration of OS compared to SOC (hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval: 0.954 [0.936–0.973], P < .05) in multivariate analyses. The exposure–safety analyses indicated that blinatumomab steady‐state concentration following the 9 or 28 μg/day dose was not associated with increased probability of CRS or neurological events, after accounting for blinatumomab treatment effect (P > .05).ConclusionsBlinatumomab step‐dosing regimen of 9/28 μg/day provided treatment benefit in achieving CR and increasing the duration of OS over SOC and was appropriate in management of CRS and neurological events in patients with r/r ALL.
Evolocumab, a novel human monoclonal antibody, inhibits proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9, a protein that targets low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) receptors for the treatment of hyperlipidemia. The primary objective of this analysis was to characterize the population pharmacokinetics (popPK) and exposure-response relationship of evolocumab to assess if dose adjustment is needed across differing patient populations. Data were pooled for 5474 patients in 11 clinical studies who received evolocumab doses of 7-420 mg at various frequencies, either intravenously or subcutaneously. Evolocumab area under concentration-time curve from 8 to 12 weeks (AUCwk8-12) was simulated for individuals using the popPK model and was used to predict the LDL-C response in relation to AUCwk8-12. Evolocumab was eliminated through nonspecific (linear) and target-mediated (nonlinear) clearance. PopPK parameters and associated variabilities of evolocumab were similar to those of other monoclonal antibodies. The exposure-response model predicted a maximal 66% reduction in LDL-C from baseline to the mean of weeks 10 and 12 for doses of evolocumab 140 mg subcutaneously every 2 weeks or 420 mg subcutaneously once monthly. After inclusion of statistically significant covariates in an uncertainty-based simulation, LDL-C reduction from baseline at the mean of weeks 10 and 12 was predicted to be within 74% to 126% of the reference patient for all simulated patient groups. Evolocumab had nonlinear pharmacokinetics. The range of responses based on intrinsic and extrinsic factors was not predicted to be sufficiently different from the reference patient to warrant evolocumab dose adjustment.
Background: The proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor evolocumab reduces low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and the risk of cardiovascular events. Objectives: To compare LDL-C reduction using evolocumab 140 mg once every 2 weeks (Q2W) or 420 mg monthly (QM) versus lower doses (70 mg Q2W or 280 mg QM) or placebo. Methods: Patients received evolocumab 70 or 140 mg Q2W, 280 or 420 mg QM, or placebo Q2W or QM in two 12-week phase 2 studies: one with and one without statins. Changes from baseline in LDL-C were compared across Q2W doses and across QM doses. Results: The analysis included 741 patients. Mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) reduction in LDL-C across Q2W visits through week 12 was 63.0% (60.3% to 65.7%) for evolocumab 140 mg Q2W, compared to 41.3% (38.6% to 44.0%) for 70 mg Q2W and 1.9% (4.6% reduction to 0.8% increase) for placebo Q2W (each P < .001 vs 140 mg Q2W), and 62.7% (60.1% to 65.3%) for 420 mg QM, compared to 55.5% (52.9% to 58.0%) for 280 mg QM and 2.5% (5.1% reduction to 0.1% increase) for placebo QM (each P < .001 vs 420 mg QM). Similar results were observed at the mean of weeks 10 and 12. In a subgroup (n = 151) with weekly assessments from weeks 8 to 12, mean (95% CI) peak effect on LDL-C reduction was 72.8% (67.7% to 77.9%) for 140 mg Q2W and 69.0% (63.6% to 74.3%) for 420 mg QM. Trough effect at week 12 underestimated LDL-C reduction. Median peak–trough variability was 20.5%, 21.1%, 31.9%, and 35.1% for evolocumab 140 mg Q2W, 420 mg QM, 70 mg Q2W, and 280 mg QM, respectively. Conclusion: Evolocumab 140 mg Q2W and 420 mg QM yielded similar LDL-C reduction. These doses sustained maximal LDL-C reduction, resulting in greater stability in LDL-C reduction over the dosing interval compared to lower doses. These results support evolocumab doses of either 140 mg Q2W or 420 mg QM.
Background: The proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor evolocumab reduces low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and the risk of cardiovascular events. Objectives: To compare LDL-C reduction using evolocumab 140 mg once every 2 weeks (Q2W) or 420 mg monthly (QM) versus lower doses (70 mg Q2W or 280 mg QM) or placebo. Methods: Patients received evolocumab 70 or 140 mg Q2W, 280 or 420 mg QM, or placebo Q2W or QM in two 12-week phase 2 studies: one with and one without statins. Changes from baseline in LDL-C were compared across Q2W doses and across QM doses. Results: The analysis included 741 patients. Mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) reduction in LDL-C across Q2W visits through week 12 was 63.0% (60.3% to 65.7%) for evolocumab 140 mg Q2W, compared to 41.3% (38.6% to 44.0%) for 70 mg Q2W and 1.9% (4.6% reduction to 0.8% increase) for placebo Q2W (each P < .001 vs 140 mg Q2W), and 62.7% (60.1% to 65.3%) for 420 mg QM, compared to 55.5% (52.9% to 58.0%) for 280 mg QM and 2.5% (5.1% reduction to 0.1% increase) for placebo QM (each P < .001 vs 420 mg QM). Similar results were observed at the mean of weeks 10 and 12. In a subgroup (n = 151) with weekly assessments from weeks 8 to 12, mean (95% CI) peak effect on LDL-C reduction was 72.8% (67.7% to 77.9%) for 140 mg Q2W and 69.0% (63.6% to 74.3%) for 420 mg QM. Trough effect at week 12 underestimated LDL-C reduction. Median peak–trough variability was 20.5%, 21.1%, 31.9%, and 35.1% for evolocumab 140 mg Q2W, 420 mg QM, 70 mg Q2W, and 280 mg QM, respectively. Conclusion: Evolocumab 140 mg Q2W and 420 mg QM yielded similar LDL-C reduction. These doses sustained maximal LDL-C reduction, resulting in greater stability in LDL-C reduction over the dosing interval compared to lower doses. These results support evolocumab doses of either 140 mg Q2W or 420 mg QM.
Optimal dose selection in clinical trials is problematic when efficacious and toxic concentrations are close. A novel quantitative approach follows for optimizing dose titration in clinical trials. A system of pharmacokinetics (PK), pharmacodynamics, efficacy, and toxicity was simulated for scenarios characterized by varying degrees of different types of variability. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and clinical trial simulation (CTS) were used to optimize drug titration by maximizing efficacy/safety. The scenarios included were a low-variability base scenario, and high residual (20%), interoccasion (20%), interindividual (40%), and residual plus interindividual variability scenarios, and finally a shallow toxicity slope scenario. The percentage of subjects having toxicity was reduced by 87.4% to 93.5%, and those having efficacy was increased by 52.7% to 243%. Interindividual PK variability may have less impact on optimal cutoff values than other sources of variability. ROC/CTS methods for optimizing dose titration offer an individualized approach that leverages exposure-response relationships.
Aims Rilotumumab is a fully human monoclonal antibody investigated for the treatment of MET‐positive gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential pharmacokinetic (PK)‐based drug–drug interaction (DDI) between rilotumumab and epirubicin (E), cisplatin(C) and capecitabine (X). Methods This was a Phase 3 double‐blind, placebo‐controlled study, in which rilotumumab, epirubicin and cisplatin were administered intravenously at 15 mg kg −1 , 50 mg m −2 , and 60 mg m −2 Q3W, respectively, while capecitabine was given orally at 625 mg m −2 twice daily. Rilotumumab PK samples were taken at pre‐dose and at the end‐of‐infusion from all patients in cycles 1, 3, 5 and 7. ECX PK samples were taken in cycle 3 from patients who participated in the intensive PK assessment. ECX PK was assessed by non‐compartmental (NCA) analyses and PK parameters were compared between two arms. Rilotumumab PK was assessed by comparing the observed rilotumumab serum concentrations with model‐predicted concentrations using a population PK model developed from previous Phase 1 and Phase 2 studies. Results The study enrolled 609 patients. ECX plasma concentrations in the presence and absence of rilotumumab were similar, as demonstrated by the geometric mean ratios for C max and AUC, which were close to 1.0, suggesting ECX PK was not affected by co‐administration of rilotumumab. The observed rilotumumab serum concentrations were similar to the values predicted by population PK modelling on the basis of a prediction‐corrected visual predictive check, indicating rilotumumab exposure was not affected by co‐administration of ECX. Conclusions The results suggest lack of PK‐based DDI between rilotumumab and ECX.