We study the cosmological dynamics of the thermal scalar the winding string mode that becomes massless at the Hagedorn transition by coupling it to the string-frame gravi dilaton effective action. This provides a field-theoretic framework for investigating winding mode dynamics near the Hagedorn temperature and their role in string cosmology. Below the Hagedorn temperature, the phase space contains static configurations in which the thermal scalar balances the shifted dilaton evolution. These configurations are boundary states rather than attractors, and when the thermal scalar mass depends on the scale factor, winding mode back reaction opposes expansion and can reverse it. Above the Hagedorn temperature, the tachyonic thermal scalar generates negative effective energy density while preserving the null energy condition, enabling branch changes of the Brustein Veneziano type. These transitions do not provide the graceful exit required to connect the Hagedorn phase to standard cosmological evolution. At the Hagedorn temperature itself, the quadratic effective theory breaks down and higher order interactions become essential. Because the thermal scalar originates as a Euclidean order parameter, our Lorentzian treatment should be viewed as an effective dynamical model of the Hagedorn transition. Within this framework, the thermal scalar clarifies the dynamical structure surrounding the Hagedorn transition and shows how the Hagedorn exit problem cannot be resolved within the quadratic effective theory alone.

Neutrinos and other light relics leave characteristic imprints in the cosmic microwave background anisotropies, making their observation a sensitive probe of the particle content and thermal history of the early universe. The energy density in these relativistic species is parameterized by their effective number N_eff. Measuring this parameter at the percent level, which is a long-standing science goal of CMB-S4 and other experiments, would test a wide range of well-motivated physics within and beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. In this paper, we present Fisher-matrix forecasts of the projected sensitivity to N_eff of several CMB-S4 survey configurations considered during its extensive design phase. The conceptual design reaches σ(N_eff) < 0.03 over its seven-year observing period, while the revised configuration achieves the same precision over a longer timescale. We complement these results with a cosmic-variance-limited survey over the same multipole range to quantify the room for improvement accessible with additional instrumental, observational, and theoretical efforts. Finally, we discuss the broad implications of precise N_eff measurements for the radiation sector, big bang nucleosynthesis, light thermal relics, and other early-universe physics. The forecasts presented in this work are performed with the publicly released DRAFT (Dark Radiation Anisotropy Flowdown Team) tool. It provides an end-to-end pipeline from simulated foreground maps and component separation to delensing and projected sensitivities for any cosmological parameter, and it can be directly applied to other cosmic microwave background survey designs.

Cosmological moduli generically come to dominate the energy density of the early universe, and thereby trigger an early matter dominated era. Such non-standard cosmological histories are expected to have profound effects on the evolution and production of axion cold dark matter and dark radiation, as well as their prospects for detection. We consider moduli-axion couplings and investigate the early history of the coupled system, considering closely the evolution of the homogeneous modulus field, the back-reaction from the axion, and the energy densities of the two fields. A particular point of interest is the enhancement of axion production from modulus decay, due to tachyonic and parametric resonant instabilities, and the implications of such production on the cosmological moduli problem, axion dark radiation, and the available parameter space for axion dark matter. Using an effective field theory approach, WKB-based semi-analytical analysis, and detailed numerical estimates of the co-evolution of the system, we evaluate the expected decay efficiency of the modulus to axions. The effects of higher-order operators are studied and implications for UV-complete frameworks such as the Large Volume Scenarios in Type IIB string theory are considered in detail.

In a previous paper, we proposed a new approach to the beginning of inflation-a lingering universe [Melcher et al. Phys. Rev. D 110, 063517 (2024).]-that is a quasistatic phase prior to inflation. The Universe begins in a lingering state with a nearly vanishing Hubble parameter. This calls into question the absolute age of the Universe, as the Hubble time can be nearly infinite. It also provides promise for addressing the initial singularity of inflation and issues with quantum field theory in de Sitter spacetime. Such models arise in classical cosmologies with nonvanishing spatial curvature (inspired by PLANCK 2018 data) and independently by models that arise in string cosmology. In this paper, we consider the importance of cosmological perturbations for the stability of the lingering phase and how this influences cosmological observations. Our goal is to establish observables in this new paradigm for the origin of inflation, which is in contrast to eternal inflation and cyclic cosmologies. We also address questions of stability and the transition to inflation.

Cosmic inflation provides a compelling framework for explaining several observed features of our Universe, but its viability depends on an efficient reheating phase that converts the inflaton's energy into Standard Model particles. This conversion often proceeds through non-perturbative mechanisms such as parametric resonance, which is described by Hill's equation. In this work, we investigate how stochastic fluctuations in the parameters of Hill's equation can influence particle production during reheating. We show that such fluctuations can arise from couplings to light scalar fields, and can significantly alter the stability bands in the resonance structure, thereby enhancing the growth of fluctuations and broadening the region of efficient energy transfer. Using random matrix theory and stochastic differential equations, we decompose the particle growth rate into deterministic and noise-induced components and demonstrate analytically and numerically that even modest noise leads to substantial particle production in otherwise stable regimes. These results suggest that stochastic effects can robustly enhance the efficacy of reheating across a wide swath of parameter space, with implications for early Universe cosmology, UV completions involving multiple scalar fields, and the resolution of the cosmological moduli problem.

This document summarizes the discussions which took place during the PITT-PACC Workshop entitled "Non-Standard Cosmological Epochs and Expansion Histories," held in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Sept. 5-7, 2024. Much like the non-standard cosmological epochs that were the subject of these discussions, the format of this workshop was also non-standard. Rather than consisting of a series of talks from participants, with each person presenting their own work, this workshop was instead organized around free-form discussion blocks, with each centered on a different overall theme and guided by a different set of Discussion Leaders. This document is not intended to serve as a comprehensive review of these topics, but rather as an informal record of the discussions that took place during the workshop, in the hope that the content and free-flowing spirit of these discussions may inspire new ideas and research directions.

We consider the evolution of non-thermal dark matter perturbations in models which contain both Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) and axions. Using constraints from existing observations we examine the percentage of WIMPs and axions that may comprise the cosmological dark matter budget in models with an Early Matter Dominated Epoch (EMDE) — where entropy production is important. After carefully tracking the thermal evolution of the various species by solving the Boltzmann equations, we consider the enhancement of perturbations that may have led to early structure formation for axions and WIMPs. We investigate the impact of enhanced perturbations on the parameter space of both species, after imposing existing constraints from indirect detection experiments. Given these constraints we establish the feasibility of axions to form miniclusters in the early universe in EMDEs for a given percentage of allowed WIMPs. We find that EMDEs with low reheat temperatures near the BBN limit are preferred for axion minicluster formation. When the EMDE is caused by string moduli, the WIMP contribution to the relic density is set by the moduli branching to dark matter at the level of ≲ 𝒪 (10−4).

We propose a cosmological lingering phase for the initial state prior to inflation which would help address the singularity problem of inflation. The universe begins with a constant (Hagedorn) temperature and then transitions into an inflationary universe while preserving the Null Energy Condition (NEC). In such a universe time is presumably emergent, calling the age of the universe into question. We first consider the phase space of positive spatial curvature models within General Relativity and with matter sources that respect the NEC. Depending on the duration of the post-lingering inflation these models can produce a small amount of observable spatial curvature in the Cosmic Microwave Background. We also discuss how lingering can arise with or without spatial curvature in theories of quantum gravity when considering the thermodynamic scaling of particles and its impact on the early universe. The string theory dilaton is essential to the dynamics. There are many open questions that remain.

The paradigm of the inflationary universe provides a possible explanation for several observed cosmological properties. In order for such solutions to be successful, the universe must convert the energy stored in the inflaton potential into standard model particles through a process known as reheating. In this paper, we reconsider the reheating process for the case where the inflaton potential respects an approximate (but spontaneously broken) conformal symmetry during the reheating epoch. After reviewing the Effective Field Theory of Reheating, we present solutions for the nonlinear oscillations of the inflaton field, derive the corresponding Hill's equation for the coupled reheating field, and determine the stability diagram for parametric resonance. For this class of models -- the simplest realization being a scalar field with a quartic term -- the expansion of the universe drives the coupled field toward a more unstable part of parameter space, in contrast to the standard case. We also generalize this class of models to include quadratic breaking terms in the potential during the reheating epoch and address the process of stability in that universality class of models.

This Snowmass 2021 White Paper describes the Cosmic Microwave Background Stage 4 project CMB-S4, which is designed to cross critical thresholds in our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. We provide an overview of the science case, the technical design, and project plan.

This is a solicited whitepaper for the Snowmass 2021 community planning exercise. The paper focuses on measurements and science with the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). The CMB is foundational to our understanding of modern physics and continues to be a powerful tool driving our understanding of cosmology and particle physics. In this paper, we outline the broad and unique impact of CMB science for the High Energy Cosmic Frontier in the upcoming decade. We also describe the progression of ground-based CMB experiments, which shows that the community is prepared to develop the key capabilities and facilities needed to achieve these transformative CMB measurements.

Standard cosmological data analyses typically constrain simple phenomenological dark-energy parameters, for example the present-day value of the equation of state parameter, w_0, and its variation with scale factor, w_a. However, results from such an analysis cannot easily indicate the presence of modified gravity. Even if general relativity does not hold, experimental data could still be fit sufficiently well by a phenomenological w_0w_aCDM, unmodified-gravity model. Hence, it would be very useful to know if there are generic signatures of modified gravity in standard analyses. Here we present, for the first time to our knowledge, a quantitative mapping showing how modified gravity models look when (mis)interpreted within the standard unmodified-gravity analysis. Scanning through a broad space of modified-gravity (Horndeski) models, and assuming a near-future survey consisting of CMB, BAO, and SNIa observations, we report values of the best-fit set of cosmological parameters including (w_0, w_a) that would be inferred if modified gravity were at work. We find that modified gravity models that can masquerade as standard gravity lead to very specific biases in standard-parameter spaces. We also comment on implications for measurements of the amplitude of mass fluctuations described by the parameter S_8.

Over the past few decades, astronomical and cosmological data sets firmly established the existence of physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics by providing strong evidence for the existence of dark matter, dark energy, and non-zero neutrino mass. In addition, the generation of primordial perturbations most likely also relies on physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. Theory work, ranging from models of the early universe in string theory that that led to novel phenomenological predictions to the development of effective field theories to large-scale cosmological simulations that include the physics of galaxy evolution, has played a key role in analyzing and interpreting these data sets and in suggesting novel paths forward to isolate the origins of this new physics. Over the next decade, even more sensitive surveys are beginning to take data and are being planned. In this white paper, we describe key areas of the theory program that will be needed to optimize the physics return on investment from these new observational opportunities.

Cosmic Probes of Fundamental Physics take two primary forms: Very high energy particles (cosmic rays, neutrinos, and gamma rays) and gravitational waves. Already today, these probes give access to fundamental physics not available by any other means, helping elucidate the underlying theory that completes the Standard Model. The last decade has witnessed a revolution of exciting discoveries such as the detection of high-energy neutrinos and gravitational waves. The scope for major developments in the next decades is dramatic, as we detail in this report.

CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.

In this paper we will list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, also taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant $H_0$, the $\sigma_8$--$S_8$ tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the $5.0\,\sigma$ tension between the {\it Planck} CMB estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade's experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the {\it Planck} CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density $\Omega_m$, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ($\sigma_8,f\sigma_8$). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the $H_0$--$S_8$ tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals.[Abridged]

Background: Risk stratification of individual patients who are prone to infection would allow surgeons to monitor high-risk patients more closely and intervene early when needed. This could reduce infection-related consequences such as increased health-care costs. The purpose of this study was to develop a machine learning (ML)-derived risk-stratification tool using the SPRINT (Study to Prospectively Evaluate Reamed Intramedullary Nails in Patients with Tibial Fractures) and FLOW (Fluid Lavage of Open Wounds) trial databases to estimate the probability of infection in patients with operatively treated tibial shaft fractures (TSFs). Methods: Patients with unilateral TSFs from the SPRINT and FLOW trials were randomly split into derivation (80%) and validation (20%) cohorts. Random forest algorithms were used to select features that are relevant to predicting infection. These features were included for algorithm training. Five ML algorithms were trained in recognizing patterns associated with infection. The performance of each ML algorithm was evaluated and compared based on (1) the area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve (AUC), (2) the calibration slope and the intercept, and (3) the Brier score. Results: There were 1,822 patients included in this study: 170 patients (9%) developed an infection that required treatment, 62 patients (3%) received nonoperative treatment with oral or intravenous antibiotics, and 108 patients (6%) underwent subsequent surgery in addition to antibiotic therapy. Random forest algorithms identified 7 variables that were relevant for predicting infection: (1) Gustilo-Anderson or Tscherne classification, (2) bone loss, (3) mechanism of injury, (4) multitrauma, (5) AO/OTA fracture classification, (6) age, and (7) fracture location. Training of the penalized logistic regression algorithm resulted in the best-performing prediction model, with AUC, calibration slope, calibration intercept, and Brier scores of 0.75, 0.94, 0.00, and 0.076, respectively, in the derivation cohort and 0.81, 1.07, 0.09, and 0.079, respectively, in the validation cohort. Conclusions: We developed an ML prediction model that can estimate the probability of infection for individual patients with TSFs based on patient and fracture characteristics that are readily available at hospital admission.

It is commonly assumed that the energy density of the Universe was dominated by radiation between reheating after inflation and the onset of matter domination 54,000 years later. While the abundance of light elements indicates that the Universe was radiation dominated during Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), there is scant evidence that the Universe was radiation dominated prior to BBN. It is therefore possible that the cosmological history was more complicated, with deviations from the standard radiation domination during the earliest epochs. Indeed, several interesting proposals regarding various topics such as the generation of dark matter, matter-antimatter asymmetry, gravitational waves, primordial black holes, or microhalos during a nonstandard expansion phase have been recently made. In this paper, we review various possible causes and consequences of deviations from radiation domination in the early Universe - taking place either before or after BBN - and the constraints on them, as they have been discussed in the literature during the recent years.

The purpose of this technique paper is to outline a minimally invasive technique using dual suspensory fixation with adjustable-loop devices for reconstruction of the superficial medial collateral ligament. The femoral fixation is performed through a limited approach at the anatomic origin of the medial collateral ligament, a socket is prepared, and the graft is docked using the adjustable-loop suspensory fixation. The tibial socket is prepared through a separate incision just distal to the pes anserine tendons and drilled medially to laterally perpendicular to the tibial shaft. The graft is tunneled and docked into the tibial tunnel using adjustable-loop cortical suspensory fixation on the far cortex. The knee is cycled through a full arc of motion and stressed in valgus to take initial creep out of the construct. The knee is placed in 30° of flexion and slight varus and final tension is applied to both the femoral and tibial side. With this technique, fixation can be completed with a minimally invasive incision and it allows the ability to tension the graft both on the femoral and tibial side to the desired level, providing a significant advantage over previously used interference screw techniques.

The expansion of the Universe is understood to have accelerated during two epochs: in its very first moments during a period of Inflation and much more recently, at $z < 1$, when Dark Energy is hypothesized to drive cosmic acceleration. The undiscovered mechanisms behind these two epochs represent some of the most important open problems in fundamental physics. The large cosmological volume at $2 < z < 5$, together with the ability to efficiently target high-$z$ galaxies with known techniques, enables large gains in the study of Inflation and Dark Energy. A future spectroscopic survey can test the Gaussianity of the initial conditions up to a factor of ~50 better than our current bounds, crossing the crucial theoretical threshold of $\sigma(f_{NL}^{\rm local})$ of order unity that separates single field and multi-field models. Simultaneously, it can measure the fraction of Dark Energy at the percent level up to $z = 5$, thus serving as an unprecedented test of the standard model and opening up a tremendous discovery space.