Two different models for predicting the time-dependent mobility of (90)Sr in river systems have been evaluated using post-Chernobyl monitoring data for five large Belarusian rivers (Dnieper, Pripyat, Sozh, Besed and Iput) in the period between 1990 and 2004. The results of model predictions are shown to be in good agreement (within a factor of 5) with the measurements of (90)Sr activity concentration in river waters over a long period of time after the accident. This verifies the relatively good accuracy of the generalised input parameters of these models which were derived primarily from measurements of (90)Sr deposited after atmospheric nuclear weapons testing (NWT). For the cases studied here, the simpler AQUASCOPE model performed just as well as the more complex "Global" model which used GIS-based catchment data as an input. The reasons for this are discussed. Exponential decay equations were also curve-fitted to the data for each river to help assess the uncertainties in the predictive models.

Following the Chernobyl accident in 1986, restrictions were placed on the movement and slaughter of sheep within upland areas of the UK because radiocaesium activity concentrations in their meat exceeded 1000Bqkg−1 fresh weight. Some farms remain under restriction in 2007. From 1991 to 1993 detailed studies were conducted on three sheep farms within the restricted area of west Cumbria to systematically assess the various parameters which may contribute to the observed variability in radiocaesium activity concentrations within sheep flocks. This paper reports the spatial variation in soil and vegetation activity concentrations across the grazed areas at these farms and determines the influence of grazing behaviour on variability in 137Cs activity concentrations between individual sheep within the flocks. Together with previously reported results, these new data are used to draw conclusions on the factors determining variability within the three flocks. However, the factors are too site specific to be able to generalise the findings to other farms within the restricted areas of the UK.

Deposition from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests (termed global fallout) has been shown to be proportional to the rate of precipitation. Here we describe methods for using precipitation and radionuclide deposition information for a reference site to estimate global fallout at other locations. These methods have been used to estimate global fallout in Iceland, identified during the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) by Wright et al. [Wright, S.M., Howard, B.J., Strand, P., Nylén, T., Sickel, M.A.K., 1999. Prediction of 137Cs deposition from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests within the Arctic. Environ Pollut 104, 131-143.] as one of the Arctic areas which received the highest global fallout, but where measurements of contamination were sparse, and difficult to obtain due to the remote and inaccessible terrain of much of the country. Measurements of global fallout 137Cs deposition have been made in Iceland at sites close to meteorological stations to ensure that precipitation data were of high quality. The AMAP modeling approach, based on measured precipitation and radionuclide deposition data, was applied using a reference monitoring station located close to Reykjavik. The availability of good precipitation data and locally based estimates of time dependent ratios of 137Cs deposition to precipitation during the fallout period gave a better correlation between predicted and measured 137Cs global fallout (r2=0.96) than that achieved using the much more heterogeneous set of data collected by AMAP over the whole of the Arctic. Having obtained satisfactory results with the model for a number of calibration sites alongside meteorological stations we then produced a map of estimated 137Cs deposition based on a model of estimated precipitation. This deposition map was then successfully validated (r2=0.85) for sites where 137Cs deposition was measured; the associated uncertainty in predictions was also estimated.

The distribution of radioactive contamination at three island sites downstream from the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine (KMCC) was studied with the objectives of mapping contamination levels, interpreting radionuclide distributions through consideration of alluvial processes and determining radionuclide inventories. Contamination was measured using in situ gamma spectrometry and landforms characterised using topographic surveying methods. Maximum 137Cs contamination densities (700kBqm−2) were found on low- and middle-level floodplains and low-lying interconnecting areas of Beriozovy Island (16km from the KMCC). On Mikhin Island (180km from the KMCC) maximum total 60Co, 152Eu and 154Eu activity concentrations (30–40kBqm−2) occur in low-lying areas inundated during flooding. Maximum 137Cs and total 60Co, 152Eu and 154Eu contamination densities on Cheriomukhov Island (250km from the KMCC) were 390 and 50kBqm−2, respectively. Estimated 137Cs inventories were 145, 148 and 16GBq for Beriozovy, Mikhin and Cheriomukhov Islands, respectively.

The basis premise of many radiological assessments is the assumption that the transfer of many radionuclides from soil to herbage and hence animal derived food products is a positive linear relationship for a given set of ecological conditions. However, a number of authors have published results, which they conclude demonstrate non-linear transfer of radiocaesium to plants and animals with transfer being highest when soil concentrations are lowest. Whilst we may expect non-linear transfer of radionuclides under homeostatic control or present in comparatively large chemical quantities, there appears no credible hypothesis to support such an observation for radiocaesium. In this paper we review those articles, which have reported non-linear radiocaesium transfer and also analyse novel data. We argue that saturation of Cs uptake as suggested by some other authors is unlikely. Sampling bias, statistical data distribution and countermeasure application are suggested as potential contributors. However, we have not been able to provide a conclusive reason for such observations. Given the important implications for foodchain modelling further consideration of available data is required to more comprehensively answer this question

We review collated data and available models for estimating the transfer of radionuclides to terrestrial biota within the European Arctic. The most abundant data are for radiocaesium and radiostrontium although many data for natural radionuclides are available. For some radionuclides no data are available for describing transfer to Arctic biota. Allometric-kinetic models have been used to estimate transfer for radionuclide-biota combinations. Predicted values were in good agreement with observed data for some radionuclides although less so for others. There are no bespoke models to enable the dynamic prediction of radionuclide transfer to Arctic biota. A human Arctic foodchain model has been adapted to estimate 137Cs and 90Sr transfer to some Arctic biota. There are many factors of Arctic ecosystems which may influence radionuclide behaviour including short growing seasons, prolonged soil freezing, and effects of low temperatures on biological rates. If exposure to ionising radiation in Arctic ecosystems is to be robustly predicted such factors must be fully understood and incorporated into models.

A number of frameworks have been proposed to assess the protection of wildlife from ionising radiations. In this paper we compare the predictions of transfer parameters recommended by one of these frameworks (FASSET) with observed whole-body 90 Sr and 137 Cs activity concentrations in a range of mammal and invertebrate species sampled within the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Predicted activity concentrations are generally within the observed ranges and mean predictions for reference organisms are similar to, or circa one order of magnitude higher than, the observed means. However, some predictions are more than one order of magnitude lower than observed values. No data were available for animals to test predictions for the other radionuclides released by the Chernobyl accident. In a separate paper the outputs of this assessment will be used to estimate doses to reference organisms and compare these to observed radiation induced effects reported within the Chernobyl zone.

In this paper we use the FASSET framework to estimate absorbed dose rates for biota within the Chernobyl exclusion zone.The estimated doses are compared to observed biological effects within the Chernobyl exclusion zone and effects expected from summaries of existing knowledge and the extent of contamination.Although paucity of observations under conditions of chronic irradiation makes direct comparison difficult, the biological effects observed in the Chernobyl exclusion zone over the period considered here (1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003) are broadly in agreement with those which may have been expected.

The european lynx (Lynx lynx) might be expected to have a high intake of radiocaesium in the parts of Sweden where the main prey of the lynx, namely reindeer and roe deer have high activity concentrations of radiocaesium because of high ground deposition. We have measured 137Cs in muscle samples from 733 lynx during 1996–2003. The aim was to quantify the extent to which radiocaesium is transferred from fallout deposition to lynx, to test whether the transfer was higher in areas where there are reindeer present, to see if there was any decline in radiocaesium over time, and to calculate the radiation dose to lynx. Most samples were collected in central and northern Sweden during January–April. Activity concentrations in lynx varied from 13 Bq kg−1 to about 15 kBq kg−1 fresh weight, with the highest value corresponding to a radiation dose at 18 mGy/year. Aggregated transfer coefficients (Tag), calculated by dividing the 137Cs activity concentration in lynx muscle by the average ground deposition (total from Chernobyl and nuclear weapon tests) within a 50 km radius around the location of the lynx, varied from 0.004 to 1.3 m2 kg−1 and were significantly higher within the reindeer herding area than outside. The concentration ratio (CR) for lynx/reindeer was 2.6 on average, whilst the average for lynx/roe deer outside the reindeer herding area was lower at 1.3. Based on these results, a CR of around 2 could be considered representative for the general ratio between predator and prey. A long-term decline of radiocaesium in prey species was reflected in lynx, with an effective half-life of 7 years from 1996 to 2003. The study shows that the accumulation of radiocaesium in predators, especially predators of reindeer, makes them more vulnerable to high radiocaesium deposition than most other wild species.

The spatial and temporal variation in radiocaesium and (90)Sr doses to two population groups of the two Northernmost counties of Norway, Troms and Finnmark, following a hypothetical accident at the Kola nuclear power plant (KNPP) have been estimated using a model implemented within a geographical information system. The hypothetical accident assumes a severe loss of coolant accident at the KNPP coincident with meteorological conditions causing significant radionuclide deposition in the two counties. External doses are estimated from ground deposition and the behaviour of the different population groups, and internal doses from predicted food product activity concentrations and dietary consumption data. Doses are predicted for reindeer keepers and other Norwegian inhabitants, taking account of existing (137)Cs and (90)Sr deposition but not including the remedial effect of any countermeasures that might be used. The predicted doses, arising mainly from radiocaesium, confirm the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme assessment that residents of the Arctic are particularly vulnerable to radiocaesium contamination, which could persist for many years. External doses are predicted to be negligible compared to ingestion doses. Ingestion doses for reindeer keepers are predicted to exceed 1 mSv y(-1) for several decades primarily due to their high consumption of reindeer meat. Other Norwegians would also be potentially exposed to doses exceeding 1 mSv y(-1) for several years, especially if they consume many local products. Whilst reindeer production is the most important exposure pathway, freshwater fish, lamb meat, dairy products, mushrooms and berries are also significant contributors to predicted ingestion doses. Radionuclide fluxes, defined as the total output of radioactivity in food from an area for a unit time, are dominated by reindeer meat. The results show the need for an effective emergency response, with appropriate countermeasures, should an accident of the scale considered in this paper occur at the KNPP.

Following the 1986 Chernobyl accident radiocaesium levels in sheep meat in some upland areas of the United Kingdom were above the national intervention limit. West Cumbria was one of these areas and restrictions are currently still in place. In addition to deposition from the Chernobyl accident, Cumbria has been subject to radiocaesium deposition from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, the 1957 Windscale accident and routine releases from the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant. A Monte-Carlo approach has been used to try to predict areas in west Cumbria where radiocaesium activity concentrations in lamb meat would require the imposition of restrictions at different times after the Chernobyl accident. The approach models the transfer of radiocaesium from soil to vegetation, based upon soil organic matter, and from vegetation to lamb meat. Spatial inputs are soil organic matter and total post-Chernobyl (137)Cs and (134)Cs deposition; a ratio of Chernobyl (137)Cs to (134)Cs deposition has been used to differentiate Chernobyl and pre-Chernobyl (137)Cs deposition. Comparisons of predicted radiocaesium transfer from soil-vegetation and the spatial variation in lamb (137)Cs activity concentrations are good and predicted restricted areas with time after Chernobyl compare well to the restricted areas set by UK government. We predict that restrictions may be required until 2024 and that in some areas the contribution of pre-Chernobyl (137)Cs to predicted lamb radiocaesium activity concentrations is significant, such that restrictions may only have been required until 1994 as a consequence of Chernobyl radiocaesium deposition alone. This work represents a novel implementation of a spatial radioecological model using a Monte-Carlo approach.

Atmospheric nuclear weapons explosions and large-scale nuclear accidents may contaminate large areas of land with the long-lived radionuclides 137Cs and 90Sr. The mobility and bioavailability of these radionuclides in the environment is dependent primarily on soil characteristics and changes significantly over time after fallout (1-4). Radioisotope concentrations in different rivers and at different times after fallout vary over 2-3 orders of magnitude. Many previous studies have concentrated on the interactions of radiocesium and radiostrontium with various environmental components, but there are currently no operative models fortheirtransport over large spatial areas. We collected time-series measurements of 90Sr and 137Cs in 25 major European and Asian rivers and (using digital data sets with global coverage) determined characteristics of each of the rivers' catchments. This work has established, for the first time, a quantitative link between riverine transport of these radioisotopes and catchment and soil characteristics at a global scale. A generalized predictive model accounting for time changes in river concentrations and variation in catchment characteristics is developed. This can be used to predict the long-term riverine transport of these radiologically important radionuclides following any large-scale nuclear incident in North America, Europe, or (European and Asian) Russia.

The application of the critical loads methodology for radioactive contamination of Arctic and sub-arctic ecosystems, where natural and semi-natural food products are important components of the diet of many people, is proposed and discussed. The critical load is herein defined as the amount of radionuclide deposition necessary to produce radionuclide activity concentrations in food products exceeding intervention limits. The high transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer meat gives this product the lowest critical load, even though the intervention limit is relatively high compared with other products. Ecological half-lives of radiocaesium in natural and semi-natural products are often very long, and it is therefore important to take account of contamination already present in the event of an accident affecting areas where such products are important. In particular, the long ecological half-life for radiocaesium in moose meat means that the critical load is highly sensitive to prior deposition. An example of the potential application of the method for emergency preparedness is given for the Chernobyl accident.

lt is well known that during the years after a nuclear accident the bioavailability and environmental mobility of radionuclides may change significantly, resulting in significant changes in contamination of foodstuffs and surface waters. Studies on 137Cs and, to a lesser extent, 90Sr, have quantified these changes in some ecosystems. However, variability in temporal changes of these radionuclides in aquatic and terrestrial systems is not yet well quantified. Estimation of such variability is a key component of any predictive model for long-term transfers of radionuclides in the environment. We have analysed measurements (from both weapons testing and Chernobyl deposits) of 137Cs in runoff waters and in aquatic and terrestrial foodstuffs in order to determine temporal changes in their bioavailability and mobility. Using these empirical data, and the results of parallel modelling studies of vertical migration of radiocaesium in soils, we have quantified the relative importance of transport processes of 137Cs, as compared to slow changes in its chemical availability in the soil. On the basis of these results, we have developed simple models for predicting time changes in activity concentrations of 137Cs in surface water, foodstuffs and the human body during the years to decades after radioactive fallout. Importantly, we also determine uncertainties in model parameter estimates, and highlight the potential causes of this uncertainty.

Over the past five decades Cumbria has been subject to radiocaesium deposition from a number of sources. In the event of a future nuclear accident, estimates of baseline radiocaesium deposition in Cumbria would be indispensable. This paper describes the application of ordinary block kriging to estimate the spatial variation of total 137 Cs and 134 Cs. This study has raised a number of issues regarding the application of kriging. Transformation of input data was necessary to improve the optimality of the standard kriging estimator. Finally, observations of 137 Cs and 134 Cs from a similar range of locations exhibit different spatial characteristics. This can be explained by differences in radioactive half-lives and differences in the deposition of the two isotopes.

After the release of radionuclides into the environment it is important to be able to readily identify major routes of radiation exposure, the most highly exposed individuals or populations and the geographical areas of most concern. There have been significant recent improvements in our capability to estimate spatial variation in the environmental behaviour of radionuclides through better understanding of the underlying processes and an ability to spatially apply this knowledge by integrating relevant spatial information in the form of digital data sets using geographical information systems. Thus, it is now possible to refine the estimation of spatial variation in radiation exposure, both for routine releases and in accident situations. Within a recent EC-funded concerted action (the Radioecological Sensitivity Forum), there has been a renewed consideration of the concept of radioecological sensitivity with a particular focus on identifying sensitive areas as well as processes and communities. The concept should be relevant for both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and might even be applied for consideration of doses to biota, although the current focus has been restricted to a consideration of human exposure. The conclusions of the action are outlined, considering the potential usefulness of the concept, and methods by which it can be applied. A framework for the estimation of radioecological sensitivity is proposed and the various measures by which it can be considered, including (i) aggregated transfer coefficients, (ii) action loads, (iii) fluxes and (iv) individual exposure of humans are discussed. The importance of spatial and temporal consideration of each of these outputs is emphasized.

Iceland was identified in the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Report as one of the Arctic areas which received the most global fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, but measurements of contamination were sparse, and are difficult due to the remote and inaccessible terrain of much of the country. Measurements of global 1 3 7Cs deposition have been made at sites close to meteorological stations to ensure that precipitation data were of high quality. The measured data have been compared with different methods of predicting , 3 7Cs deposition. The AMAP modeling approach, based on fallout and precipitation data, was used based on a monitoring station near Reykjavik. The availability of good precipitation data and locally based estimates of time dependent ratios of 1 3 7Cs deposition to precipitation during the fallout period gave a better correlation between predicted and observed 1 3 7Cs deposition (1^=0.96) than that achieved using the heterogeneous set of data collected by AMAP over the whole of the Arctic. The method allows a fallout map to be produced for the whole of Iceland for any time period during or after deposition.

Both urban (including industrial) and rural environments may be contaminated for many years after a nuclear accident. To sustain acceptable living and working conditions, the capability to implement robust and effective restoration strategies is required. The criteria on which countermeasures are evaluated need to be extended from simply effectiveness and radiological protection criteria to a more integrated, holistic approach. Specifically, aspects such as whether measures can be practically applied, incur considerable direct or indirect (or side-effect) costs, have significant environmental effects, and are acceptable to society need to be incorporated. In addition, we should explore suitable approaches for successfully communicating with a wide range of stakeholders. Remediation following an accident cannot be based upon the evaluation of individual countermeasures in isolation; rather optimal strategies which combine a number of countermeasures need to be designed. A developing methodology to optimise restoration strategies is discussed using the results of an evaluation of a hypothetical accident. This initial evaluation is restricted to countermeasures that reduce ingestion doses and considers the effect of environmental restrictions, and dose distribution on the selection of remediation strategies. Communication strategies to be used within restoration are also discussed

Previous work has demonstrated that plant uptake of radiocaesium (RCs) is related to the activity concentration of RCs in soil solution, which is linked to the soil/soil solution distribution coefficient, K-D. The solid-liquid distribution of RCs is generally studied in soil suspensions in the laboratory and there are few reported measurements for in situ soil solutions. From a data set of 53 different soils (contaminated with either (CsCl)-Cs-134 or (CsCl)-Cs-137) used in pot trials to investigate grass uptake of RCs, we analysed the variation of in situ KD with measured soil properties. The soils differed widely in % clay (0.5-58%), organic matter content (1.9-96%) and pH (2.4-7.0, CaCl2). The K-D varied between 29 and 375,000 L kg(-1) (median 1460 L kg(-1)). Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed a significant correlation between the log K-D and pH (p<0.001), log %clay (p<0.01) and log exchangeable K (p<0.001) (overall R-2 = 0.70).The in situ K-D values were further compared to K(D)s predicted using an existing model, which assumes that RCs sorption occurs on specific sites and regular ion-exchange sites on the soil solid phase. Sorption of RCs on specific sites was quantified from the radiocaesium interception potential (RIP) measured for each soil and the soil solution concentrations of K+ and NH4+. The in situ log K-D correlated well with the predicted K-D (R-2 = 0.85 before plant growth, R-2 = 0.83 after plant growth). However, the observations were fivefold to eightfold higher than the predictions, particularly for the mineral soils. We attribute the under-prediction to the long contact times (minimum 4 weeks) between the RCs tracers and our experimental soils relative to the short (24 h) contact times used in RIP measurements. We conclude that our data confirmed the model but that ageing of RCs in soil is a factor that needs to be considered to better predict in situ K-D values. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.