We evaluated the “drought-collapse” narrative in Maya archaeology by mapping settlement abandonment across 294 sites in Belize against high-resolution paleoclimate data. Although severe droughts occurred in Belize between 700 and 1600 CE, their impact on Maya settlement dynamics was uneven. Despite receiving more annual rainfall, spatial analyses (relative-risk surfaces and cluster analysis) show that western and southern regions were abandoned earlier than comparatively drier northeastern communities. These spatial patterns of abandonment suggest that drought severity was secondary to regional factors and adaptive strategies, with wetland management emerging as a potential determinant of resilience. Sites near perennial water sources, such as the New River Lagoon, remained occupied for centuries while upland areas and the upper reaches of major river systems collapsed. These findings indicate that access to perennial water sources was fundamental to long-term settlement persistence, providing a more complex framework for interpreting ancient Maya resilience during periods of environmental variability.

Abstract. Belize, located on the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan peninsula, is increasingly vulnerable to hydroclimatic hazards such as droughts, which have caused widespread agricultural losses, water shortages, and economic disruption in recent years. Despite these risks, long-term climate reconstructions for the country remain lacking. This study presents the first documentary-based reconstruction of droughts in British colonial Belize from 1771 to 1981, using a diverse body of unpublished and published sources including newspapers, missionary letters, agricultural reports, and early instrumental records. Droughts were identified through both direct meteorological references and indirect evidence such as crop failures, forest fires, and water scarcity, and were classified by severity and confidence levels. Results show that droughts were more frequent, longer, and more severe in the northern districts. The wetter southern districts experienced fewer and less intense droughts. Instrumental data partially corroborate the documentary findings, but also reveal key discrepancies, particularly for the pre-20th-century period. Comparison with drought records from the Mexican Yucatán Peninsula, Guatemala, and the Caribbean suggests some regionally synchronous events, alongside droughts that appear specific to Belize. By extending the climate record back two centuries, this study provides critical historical context for current and future drought trends in Belize and the wider region. It highlights the importance of combining documentary and instrumental sources to assess long-term climate variability in data-scarce tropical environments and contributes to broader efforts to understand past climate extremes in the context of growing climate risk.

Global and interconnected sustainability challenges require systems thinking and policy coherence to support bold and coordinated action. To chart a course for action, the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a suite of targets across international and national levels. Here, we explore intentions and contributions over time of the Mexican multifaceted rural-development program Sembrando Vida (SV) to the SDGs, to assess its policy coherence for sustainable development, especially in relation to climate change. We reviewed online documents and newspaper articles, interviewed key SV staff and analyzed the Mexican President’s morning conference speeches. We show that multiplicity and adaptation of stated intentions suggest opportunistic forms of policy drift with limited policy coherence. The potential of the SV program remains promising, but it requires clearer objectives, coherent strategy, expert knowledge, community support and evaluation. These results demonstrate how political context can cause policy drift and negatively impact intended policy coherence for sustainable development.

Indigenous and rural peoples have developed close connections with land and nature for millennia. Traditional and local knowledge resulting from such human-environment interactions is embedded in ethnic, linguistic, and cultural contexts, and may assist local communities in adapting to global issues such as climate change. However, the extent to which traditional knowledge supports adaptation to local manifestations of severe socio-environmental changes, the traditional knowledge techniques that play an effective role in adaptation, and the dynamic yet integral aspect of traditional knowledge for indigenous and mestizo cultures remain unclear. Despite an extensive literature on climate change, adaptation, and traditional knowledge in the Global South, Mesoamerican countries are underrepresented. The aims of this systematic review were to address the main manifestations of climate change in Mesoamerican countries, to critically analyze relationships between traditional knowledge and contemporary climate change adaptation and to make recommendations regarding knowledge conservation, production, and exchange for climate change adaptation in the region. We systematically identified, reviewed, and coded 77 relevant papers. Our results show that: 1) most papers do not distinguish between local, traditional, and indigenous knowledge; 2) rainfall variability, droughts, and weather unpredictability are the most frequently expressed experiences of climate change; 3) the main adaptations undertaken by smallholders are changes to the agricultural calendar and crops cultivated, a shift to more sustainable agriculture, and labour diversification to generate off-farm income; and 4) many more articles are published on Mexico than the other Mesoamerican countries, and predominantly by authors from outside Mesoamerica. Local traditional knowledge makes important contributions to climate change actions and policy by observing changing climates, adapting to impacts, and contributing to global mitigation efforts. As a response to increasing climate change challenges, smallholders create new hybrid knowledge by combining traditional and western perspectives. This knowledge evolution will support greater resilience to climate change but may hasten cultural erosion and exacerbate social inequalities in the region unless efforts are taken to maintain cultural integrity.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had many deep social and economic impacts that go beyond health issues. One consequence is that the pandemic has made it even harder to mobilize the financial resources needed to pursue SDG 13 (Climate Action) as a whole and to fund climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in particular. This is especially acute in respect of the efforts to achieve the targets set by the Paris Agreement and by the recent decisions in Glasgow. This paper looks at how the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated poverty and undermined climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, as a result of the switches in priorities and funding. Using a review of the recent literature, an analysis of international trends, and a survey among climate scientists, it identifies some of the impacts of the pandemic on climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts and discusses their implications. The findings indicate a decrease in funding to climate change research since the pandemic crisis. The bibliometric analysis reveals that a greater emphasis has been placed on the relationship between COVID-19 and poverty when compared to the interrelations between COVID-19 and climate change. Addressing climate change is as urgent now as it was before the pandemic crisis started, and efforts need to be made to upkeep the levels of funding needed to support research in this field.

Borderlands can be places of socio-economic tensions, development challenges, and ecological risks, now exacerbated by climate change. We investigate the border-development-climate change nexus using research from Calakmul, Mexico and Petén, Guatemala, to detail the lived experiences and vulnerabilities of campesinos in the Selva Maya cross-border region. Our mixed methods approach combines historical analysis and ethnographic interviews with 70 campesinos. We demonstrate how large scale development approaches result in local and specific policy interventions, but produce mixed outcomes for campesinos, neglecting the most marginalized. Despite the absence of any major border crossings, a porous border in this area allows flows of people, goods, and services to connect the region, but there are differential national outcomes. In Petén, many campesinos suffer from ‘irregularity’ (lacking rights to the lands where they live and cultivate), preventing access to state development benefits. In Calakmul greater climate change demands adaptations beyond the scope of recent policy interventions. We consider how the border region includes biophysical processes as well as socio-political and cultural ones, and we argue that policy interventions are required at global, national, and local scales to address structural inequalities and co-create local solutions to development, migration, and climate change challenges.

Wildlife conservation efforts in the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor have focused on reducing negative interactions between humans and charismatic species. In recent years, droughts have increased in frequency and intensity in southeastern Mexico exacerbating conflicts with wildlife as they compete with humans for limited water. In the Yucatan Peninsula, Greater Calakmul Region of southeastern Mexico, Baird’s tapirs (Tapirus bairdii) are increasingly encroaching into local villages (ejidos) in search of water. This behavior could increase tapir mortality from hunting by Calakmul ejidos residents. We evaluated the trends between annual precipitation and tapir sightings near or within Calakmul ejidos from 2008 to 2019 to determine if the frequency of reported conflicts increased relative to decreased precipitation. In addition, with community participation, from 2016 to 2018 we monitored one of the ejidos where human-tapir conflicts were reported to be increasing to better describe the nature of conflicts. We did not find any relationship between the number of tapir sightings reported and annual precipitation. However, more tapirs were documented near ejidos in 2019, which is one of the years with the lowest rainfall (626.6 mm) in the last decade. Tapirs were reported as the most common wildlife species observed at waterholes (35.4%) and apiaries (32.1%). Our findings suggested that water scarcity has increased tapirs’ incursions into human-populated areas and subsequently the potential for human-tapir conflicts. We recommend that managers consider developing alternative water sources that could mitigate human-tapir conflicts and contribute to the long-term viability of other wildlife species that inhabit the Greater Calakmul Region of southeastern Mexico.

Perceptions of climate change, the impacts of and responses to climatic variability and extreme weather are explored in three communities in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, in relation to livelihood resilience. These communities provide examples of the most common livelihood strategies across the region: small-scale fisheries (San Felipe) and semi-subsistence small-holder farming (Tzucacab and Calakmul). Although the perception that annual rainfall is reducing is not supported by instrumental records, changes in the timing of vital summer rainfall and an intensification of the mid-summer drought ( canicula ) are confirmed. The impact of both droughts and hurricanes on livelihoods and crop yields was reported across all communities, although the severity varied. Changes in traditional milpa cultivation were seen to be driven by less reliable rainfall but also by changes in Mexico’s agricultural and wider economic policies. Diversification was a common adaptation response across all communities and respondents, resulting in profound changes in livelihood strategies. Government attempts to reduce vulnerability were found to lack continuity, be hard to access and too orientated toward commercial scale producers. Population growth, higher temperatures and reduced summer rainfall will increase the pressures on communities reliant on small-scale farming and fishing, and a more nuanced understanding of both impacts and adaptations is required for improved livelihood resilience. Greater recognition of such local-scale adaptation strategies should underpin the developing Mexican National Adaptation Policy and provide a template for approaches internationally as adaptation becomes an increasingly important part of the global strategy to cope with climate change.

Despite established science on climate change vulnerability as mediated by social status, policy discussions of climate change vulnerabilities often still treat smallholder farming communities as largely undifferentiated. Residents themselves, however, experience their own vulnerability in the context of their individual lives. Our research explored how residents of Calakmul, Mexico, perceived and experienced their own vulnerability to climate change. Fifty-five semi-structured interviews in 2013 and forty-three follow-up interviews in 2016 provide data on perceived effects of climate-related stressors on their livelihood activities, health, and experiences of hunger. Analysis focused on patterns in residents’ everyday, lived experiences and on variation among individuals and families. Community status and associated resource access, variations in livelihood activities, and other situational aspects shaped interviewees’ sense of their own vulnerabilities. In addition, residents reported a variety of options for coping with the effects of climate change, most of which required cash inputs. Yet they also reported that normal opportunities for obtaining cash through agricultural wage labor were likewise curtailed by climate change.

This study addresses changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation from 1982 to 2016 from three meteorological stations around Calakmul, Mexico, a landscape balancing biodiversity conservation and smallholder agricultural production. Five methods were used to assess changes in precipitation: the Mann-Kendall test of annual and wet season trends; a fuzzy-logic approach to determine the onset of the rainy season; the Gini Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) to evaluate the temporal distribution of precipitation; Simple Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII) to evaluate precipitation intensity; and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) to identify the deficit or surplus of rainfall compared with the long-term mean. Overall, rainfall trends in Calakmul over this period indicate a slight increase, though results of the indices (Gini, SDII, PCI) all indicate that rainfall has become more intense and more unevenly distributed throughout the year. There was no significant trend in the onset date of rainfall or the RAI overall, though there were more pronounced crests and troughs from 2004 to 2016. Higher interannual variability and more pronounced rainfall anomalies, both positive and negative, suggest that rainfall in the Calakmul region has become more extreme. This research informs for management and livelihood strategies in the local region and offers insights for analyses of regional patterns of seasonal precipitation events in tropical landscapes worldwide.

Maize is an important staple crop in Mexico, and the recent intensification of climate variability, in combination with non-climatic forces, has hindered increases in production, especially for smallholder farmers. This article demonstrates the influence of these drivers on maize production trends in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula using a mixed methods approach of climatic analysis and semi-structured interviews. Climate trend analysis and generalized additive models (GAMs) demonstrate relationships between production and climatic variability, using 1980-2010 precipitation and temperature data. Data from forty interviews with government officials and representatives of farmers' associations (gathered in 2015 and 2016) highlight the influence of agricultural policy on maize production in the region. The climate trend analysis yielded mixed results, with a statistically significant negative rainfall trend for Quintana Roo and variability in maximum temperature changes across the region, with an increase in Yucatan State and Quintana Roo and a decrease in Campeche. Climate and production GAMs indicate a strong significant relationship between production and climate fluctuations for Campeche (79%) and Quintana Roo (72%) and a weaker significant relationship for the Yucatan State (31%). Informants identified precipitation variability and ineffective public policies for smallholder agricultural development as primary obstacles for maize production, including inadequate design of agricultural programs, inconsistent agricultural support, and ineffective farmers' organizations. Quantifying the influence of climate change on maize production, and the amplifying influence of national and regional agricultural policy for smallholder farmers, will inform more appropriate policy design and implementation.

Smallholder labor migration and its relationship to climate change adaptation has received increasing attention, with migration often represented either as part of successful adaptive livelihood diversification or as symptomatic of a lack of in-place adaptive capacity. Using a case study, we focus on the relationship between labor migration, agrarian livelihood diversification, and climate change to further a more nuanced understanding of "migration as adaptation" than is implied by a simple dichotomy of success versus failure. Smallholder diversification, both on- and off-farm, has largely been framed as a risk spreading practice that lowers climate change vulnerability. But after decades of advocating livelihood diversification, with labor migration now increasingly a part of smallholder livelihood activities, it is urgent to pose a number of questions: Why do smallholders migrate? How does labor migration unfold for them and with what outcomes? Our primary goal here is to explore the nature of the relationship of labor migration to climate change and climate change adaptation. Through empirical fieldwork in northwestern Nicaragua, we explore the role of labor migration in smallholder household production and reproduction, as families confront increasingly difficult climatic conditions for agricultural production and a relative absence of the state within a neoliberal political economy. Our analysis draws on household surveys and qualitative interviews and focus groups we carried out in the municipality of Somotillo, in northwestern Nicaragua, over three years (2013-15). Our findings demonstrate that household labor migration neither facilitates adaptation to climate change nor reflects a failure to adapt, but rather reflects the weak position of smallholders in interlocking relations of power and the relative land scarcity experienced by many. We argue that labor migration barely maintains semi-subsistence agricultural production and reinforces existing social inequalities, raising questions regarding a conceptualization of "migration as adaptation" and the benefits of this type of livelihood diversification. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SUMMARY This study investigates impacts and implications of recent landscape change in rural Mexico, through a case study in the Usumacinta Valley of eastern Chiapas. It addresses types of livelihood diversification strategies associated with changing land cover from 1984–2013, and the processes and roles that vary by actors and their scales of influence. After widespread forest loss and the expansion of extensive cattle ranching during the twentieth century, the region has exhibited several new economic and livelihood strategies in recent decades. Results from a combination of satellite imagery analysis and individual interviews from a wide range of land use decision makers demonstrate the dynamism of this landscape. The introduction of new crops, including teak, rubber and oil palm, as well as off-farm work, continue to shape the social and physical landscape and differentially impact the adaptive capacities of residents. Results indicate that small landholders often need to incorporate more crops into their agricultural portfolio and increase off-farm activities, leading to an atomization of livelihood strategies. By contrast, large landholders are able to pursue more specialized and lucrative agricultural opportunities.

This study explores the temporal and spatial variability and change in rainfall across southeastern Mexico and the mechanisms by which smallholder farmers adapt to this variability, especially droughts. Members of 150 households in 10 communities were interviewed to investigate adaptation strategies among swidden maize smallholders, linked to their perceptions of climate changes. Precipitation data from seven weather stations were analyzed for the 1973-2012 period. Precipitation anomalies were estimated to evaluate the annual and seasonal stability, deficit, or surplus; and linear regressions were used to evaluate trends. Then, these anomalies were linked to variation in reported agricultural practices. Weather station data show a considerable decline in precipitation in most of the study area, coupled with increased drought frequency and an increase in negative anomalies in recent years. Surveys revealed several mechanisms of adaptation, including adjustment of the agricultural calendar (e.g. delaying planting, combined with planting a greater number of varieties of maize), water storage, and livelihood diversification both within and outside of agriculture. These adaptive mechanisms are responsive to demonstrated climatic change over the past 40 years, though globalization affects Mexico's agrarian economy, and farmers likely respond to a combination of economic and climatic factors. Understanding how resource- and climate-dependent swidden farmers respond to co-occurring climatic and economic changes is essential for effective adaptation policy design.

Este estudio analiza la variabilidad espacial y temporal de la precipitación en el sur de la península de Yucatán, a través de anomalías y tendencias de la precipitación anual y estacional y la ocurrencia de sequías meteorológicas, empleando datos de lluvia de nueve estaciones meteorológicas para el periodo de 1953-2007. Utilizando tendencias de regresión lineal anuales y estacionales se analizó el aumento o la disminución de las precipitaciones durante este periodo. Las anomalías de precipitación permitieron evaluar la estabilidad, el déficit o superávit de precipitación para cada año, y el método quintil permitió la clasificación de la intensidad de las sequías meteorológicas. Los resultados muestran una considerable variabilidad espacial y temporal, con mayores valores de precipitación y anomalías en la costa, que van disminuyendo gradualmente hacia el Centro-Oeste del área en estudio. Durante este periodo hay una disminución de la precipitación anual y de la estación húmeda, en gran parte de la zona la cual alcanza una disminución de 12 mm anuales (estación Chachobben). Estaciones como Zoh Laguna Campeche muestran claramente un aumento en los años de sequía (desde leve hasta extrema) a partir de 1985 principalmente. Este estudio contribuye a un major conocimiento de la variación regional de la precipitación y sus posibles vínculos con el Cambio Climático a escala regional y global.