Wildfires naturally occur in many landscapes, however they are undergoing rapid regime shifts. Despite the emphasis in the literature on the most severe hydrological responses to wildfire, there remains a knowledge gap on the thresholds of wildfire (i.e., burned area/drainage area ratio, BAR) required to initiate hydrological responses. We investigated hydrological changes in the Russian River Watershed (RRW) in California, a coastal, Mediterranean, drought‐prone, wildfire‐adapted ecosystem, following ten wildfires that burned 30% of the watershed. Our findings suggest that sub‐watersheds of the RRW have not burned beyond an intrinsic, unknown, threshold required to initiate change. Using paired watersheds, we examined spatiotemporal patterns of pre‐and‐post wildfire hydrology with a rainfall‐runoff hydrological model. Even though these successive wildfires burned 1%–50% of each sub‐watershed (1%–30% at moderate/high severity), we found little evidence of wildfire‐related shifts in hydrology. As a function of BAR, wildfire imposed limited effects on runoff ratios (runoff/precipitation) and runoff residuals (observations—model simulations). Our findings that post‐wildfire runoff enhancements asymptote beyond 30% burn indicate that when a watershed is burned beyond a certain threshold, the magnitude of the hydrologic response no longer increases. Drought and storm conditions explained much of the variability observed in streamflow, whereas wildfire explained only moderate variability in streamflow even when wildfire accounted for >45% BAR. While the BAR in the RRW was sufficiently beyond previously reported minimum disturbance thresholds (>20% burned forest), the lack of hydrological response is attributed to buffering effects of wildfire adaptation and drought factors that are unique to Mediterranean ecoregions.

In regions experiencing aquifer depletion, planning for groundwater sustainability requires both accurate accounting of current groundwater budgets and an assessment of future conditions, with changes in recharge and pumping. Hydrologic variability, climate change effects on water flows, changing water infrastructure operations, and inherent uncertainties in modeling, challenge the plans to achieve groundwater sustainability. This paper examines the importance, magnitude, and policy implications of uncertainties in groundwater overdraft estimation for water management in California. We review water balance estimates from two regional-scale groundwater models-C2VSim and CVHM-for sub-regions within California's Central Valley, and examine the variability and uncertainty in historical and future estimates of groundwater overdraft. Assuming reductions in agricultural water use for sub-regions with overdraft, we estimate the probabilities of ending groundwater overdraft for different periods. We also obtain the economic costs associated with these reductions in agricultural production. Results from both groundwater models show significant inter-annual variability in flows affecting groundwater storage, and our model comparison highlights the uncertainty in water budget estimates for Central Valley sub-regions given the differences between models. The analysis of the probabilities of achieving sustainability at the sub-regional scale show that the average overdraft rate is important and that greater variance in annual groundwater storage increases uncertainties in ending overdraft, especially for shorter periods. Greater reductions in annual net water increases the reliability of achieving groundwater sustainability, but rising rapidly agricultural economic losses. Setting management thresholds below groundwater levels can ease meeting sustainability criteria, but also can introduce a false pathway to sustainability. Finally, we discuss policy implications for the design of local groundwater sustainability plans and state assessment and regulation of local plans.

Widespread groundwater overdraft in alluvial aquifer systems like the Central Valley (CV) in California, USA, has increased interest in managed aquifer recharge (MAR). Like most clastic sedimentary basins, recharge to the productive semi-confined CV aquifer system remains a challenge due to the presence of nearly ubiquitous, multiple confining units (silt and clay) that limit recharge pathways. Previous studies suggest the presence of interconnected networks of coarse-texture sand and gravel deposits that bypass regional confining units over a small fraction of the CV near the American and Cosumnes rivers. Here, variably saturated infiltration and recharge processes were simulated across a domain that includes high-resolution representation of the heterogeneous alluvial geologic architecture in this area. Results show that recharge potential is highly dependent on subsurface geologic architecture, with a nearly 2 order-of-magnitude range of recharge across the domain. Where interconnected coarse-texture recharge pathways occur, results show that these features can (1) accommodate rapid, high-volume MAR and (2) propagate widespread and rapid pressure responses over multi-kilometer distances in the semi-confined aquifer system. For all MAR simulations, results show that the majority of MAR is accommodated by filling unsaturated-zone (UZ) pore volume. Results also show that coarse-texture UZ facies (where present) accommodate the majority of MAR volume during early time, but fine-texture facies ultimately accommodate the majority of the total MAR volume, even for coarse-dominated sites. These findings highlight the large variability of MAR potential across the landscape and demonstrate the importance of fine-texture facies for accommodating MAR in alluvial aquifer systems.

This manuscript presents an assessment study of the hydrologic and geologic impact on managed aquifer recharge processes. At 100 randomly sampled sites across the model domain the correlation between 17 hydro(geo)logical site characteristics/parameters and simulated recharge “benefits” is evaluated. Overall, upscaled vertical K multiplied with “Water Table Depth” (WTD) produce a good correlation with recharge rates. This proxy parameter (GPP – Kgeom * WTD) are most correlated with recharge rates, validated by local and global sensitivity analysis. Moreover, the analyses also indicate that permeability and unsaturated zone pore volume (porosity used as an indicator for Sy) were relatively more important than other hydraulic parameters.

Effective management of water resources requires signaling the scarcity value of water to society. However, accurate signaling is often limited by incomplete and/or untimely accounting of hydrologic stores and flows of water. In this opinion piece, we advocate an incisive yet conceptually simple framework for transparent, real-time accounting of water stores and flows, including both groundwater and surface water, to inform water markets organized around a central clearinghouse. This framework promotes forthright collaboration among disciplines to improve system efficiency and increase water-management transparency. We use California water management as an example for the potential for a central clearinghouse framework that has proven so beneficial to transparency of energy markets in that region.