Norris Keiller, de Paula, and Van Reenen (2024) (NPR) propose estimating production functions using firms' subjective expectations of future output and inputs, data which are becoming increasingly available in surveys. This note compares their proposed estimator to traditional dynamic panel data (e.g., Blundell and Bond 2000) and proxy variable methods (e.g., Olley and Pakes 1996). While NPR allows for nonlinear productivity processes, we discuss commonalities with the former when those processes are linear. We note that NPR may be more robust to oligopolistic competition than the latter since it does not employ input demand relations to proxy for productivity.

Estimation of the dynamic error components model is considered using two alternative linear estimators that are designed to improve the properties of the standard first-differenced GMM estimator. Both estimators require restrictions on the initial conditions process. Asymptotic efficiency comparisons and Monte Carlo simulations for the simple AR(1) model demonstrate the dramatic improvement in performance of the proposed estimators compared to the usual first-differenced GMM estimator, and compared to non-linear GMM. The importance of these results is illustrated in an application to the estimation of a labour demand model using company panel data. (c) 2023 Published by Elsevier B.V.

We place the Blundell-Bond paper in the context of the early development of panel data estimators that accounted for unobserved heterogeneity, dynamics and persistent economic series. The initial work focused on appropriate econometric methods to estimate dynamic models using unbalanced panel data with many firms and/or individuals but covering a small number of time periods. Eliminating the unobserved firm-specific 'fixed' effects by taking first-differences and using as instruments suitably lagged values of the dependent variable, and of endogenous or predetermined explanatory variables, led to the first-differenced GMM estimators popularised by Arellano and Bond (1991). This approach was less well suited to models which relate highly persistent series. Following Arellano and Bover (1995) we examined the use of suitably lagged first-differences as instruments for the equations in levels and derived the conditions, particularly on initial conditions, under which first-differences of the dependent variable would or would not be uncorrelated with individual-specific 'fixed' effects. An influential contribution was to illustrate the magnitude of the bias when the first-differenced GMM estimator is used to estimate autoregressive models for highly persistent series, and the potential to reduce that bias by using additional valid moment conditions for the equations in levels - thereby popularising the use of these extended or 'System' GMM estimators. (c) 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the dynamic error components model is considered using two alternative linear estimators that are designed to improve the properties of the standard first-differenced GMM estimator. Both estimators require restrictions on the initial conditions process. Asymptotic efficiency comparisons and Monte Carlo simulations for the simple AR(1) model demonstrate the dramatic improvement in performance of the proposed estimators compared to the usual first-differenced GMM estimator, and compared to non-linear GMM. The importance of these results is illustrated in an application to the estimation of a labour demand model using company panel data.

The ratio estimator of the markup is the ratio of the output elasticity for a flexible input to that input’s cost share in total revenue. We highlight identification and estimation issues pertaining to this ratio estimator, when firm-level output prices are not observed. If the revenue elasticity for a flexible input is used in place of the output elasticity, then profit maximization implies that the ratio estimator is identically equal to one, and thus is uninformative about markups. Concerning estimation of output elasticities: with only revenue data, profit maximization also implies that the output elasticity is not identified non-parametrically from estimation of the revenue production function, if firms have market power. Even with separate output price and quantity data, it is challenging to estimate the output elasticity consistently if there are non-linear productivity dynamics and firms face heterogeneous demand schedules, with unobserved variation in a demand shifter.

This paper explores the effect of taxation on the capital structure of banks. For identification, we exploit exogenous regional variations in the rate of the Italian tax on productive activities (IRAP) using administrative, confidential data on regional banks provided by the Bank of Italy (1998-2011). We find that IRAP rate changes do not always lead to a change in banks’ leverage: banks close to the regulatory constraints do not change their leverage when tax rates change. This holds true for both tax cuts and tax hikes. Among less constrained entities, the leverage of smaller banks is more responsive to changes in tax rates than that of larger banks. Overall, the tax system has little effect on the capital structure of banks, especially for larger and possibly more systemically important institutions; regulatory constraints instead seem to be a first-order determinant. Our findings cast doubt on the role of the tax system as a cause or tool for addressing the negative externalities of excessive leverage in the banking system.

ABSTRACT We use Office for National Statistics' micro data for large UK establishments in the production industries in the period 1997–2008 to study the relationship between their productivity and the presence of substantial R&D activities, either at the production unit itself, or at other UK reporting units owned by the same enterprise group. We estimate that total factor (revenue) productivity is on average about 14% higher at the establishments which have substantial R&D themselves, compared to those with no R&D. Among the establishments with no R&D themselves, we estimate that productivity is on average about 9% higher at those which belong to enterprise groups which do have substantial R&D elsewhere in the UK in the same sub-sector. For the establishments with substantial R&D themselves, we also estimate a significant positive relationship between current productivity and past R&D expenditure using dynamic specifications which allow for both establishment-specific ‘fixed effects’ and a serially correlated error component.

We present new empirical evidence that sector-level capital–output ratios are strongly influenced by corporate tax incentives, as summarised by the tax component of a standard user cost of capital measure. We use sectoral panel data for the USA, Japan, Australia and eleven EU countries over the period 1982–2007. Our panel combines internationally consistent data on capital stocks, value-added and relative prices from the EU KLEMS database with corporate tax measures from the Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation. Our results for equipment investment are particularly robust, and strikingly consistent with the basic economic theory of corporate investment.

In this paper we describe the investment behaviour of manufacturing firms in Italy between 1995 and 2013 and we investigate the most important factors leading to the decline in investment since 2008. We estimate an error correction model for investment using information on firms' demand expectations, uncertainty, and credit constraints, based on the Bank of Italy’s Survey of Industrial and Service Firms. Our results suggest that the fall in the expected growth rate of real sales played an important role in quantitative terms, and that the 2008 demand shock may explain a long period of weak investment. We also find that credit constraints have a significant impact at the firm level, but less so in aggregate terms. Finally higher uncertainty does not seem to have played a significant role in explaining investment dynamics during the crisis.

This paper explores the effect of taxation on the capital structure of banks. To identify the effect of taxes, we exploit exogenous regional variations in the rate of the Italian tax on productive activities (IRAP) using administrative, confidential data provided by the Bank of Italy. We find that taxation affects leverage of smaller banks (that is, banks in the lowest three quartiles of total assets) but does not affect leverage of banks in the top quartile of total assets. Taxation also affects leverage of slow growing banks but it does not affect leverage of fast growing banks. Larger and faster growing banks also display higher leverage. Overall, banks with higher leverage do not respond to tax. We control for regulatory capital requirements using a new measure of leverage called maximum leverage ratio for each bank-year observation and the results do not change qualitatively. Maximum leverage only affects leverage of larger and faster growing banks, those for which there is no tax effect. Additionally, the heterogeneity in leverage levels across banks of different sizes and growth groups disappears when controlling for maximum leverage. These results suggest that for banks with higher leverage, the regulatory requirements are binding and therefore, they are less sensitive to tax. JEL Classification: G21; G32; G38; H25; H32.

Based on the best available theory and evidence, the Mirrlees Review sets out a comprehensive set of proposals for tax reform. While focused on the UK, its analysis and conclusions bear directly on the policy debate in other developed countries. The Review proposes a move to a more neutral tax system. Key ingredients include adjusting the personal tax and welfare system to achieve redistribution more effi ciently, imposing VAT on a broader base of consumption at a single rate, targeting environmental externalities more accurately, and aligning tax rates across all income sources while exempting the normal return to saving from tax, and introducing an allowance for corporate equity into the corporate tax system.

This note introduces the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator for the analysis of macro panel data in the presence of slope heterogeneity, variable nonstationarity and cross-section dependence. Building on extensive Monte Carlo simulations we show that its performance matches that of the popular Pesaran (2006) Common Correlated Effects (CCE) estimators in a wide range of setups. An empirical application highlights the merits of the AMG approach for cross-country productivity analysis.

We study the sensitivity of investment to cash flow conditional on measures of q in an adjustment costs framework with costly external finance. We present a benchmark model in which this conditional investment–cash flow sensitivity increases monotonically with the cost premium for external finance, for firms in a financially constrained regime. Using simulated data, we show that this pattern is found in linear regressions that relate investment rates to measures of both cash flow and average q. We also derive a structural equation for investment from the first-order conditions of our model, and show that this can be estimated directly.

Based on the best available theory and evidence, the Mirrlees Review sets out a comprehensive set of proposals for tax reform. While focused on the UK, its analysis and conclusions bear directly on the policy debate in other developed countries. The Review proposes a move to a more neutral tax system. Key ingredients include adjusting the personal tax and welfare system to achieve redistribution more efficiently, imposing VAT on a broader base of consumption at a single rate, targeting environmental externalities more accurately, and aligning tax rates across all income sources while exempting the normal return to saving from tax, and introducing an allowance for corporate equity into the corporate tax system.

Abel and Eberly (1999) prove that uncertainty has an ambiguous effect on long run capital accumulation in a real options model. We show that, with adjustment costs quadratic in investment, more uncertainty reduces capital and this effect may be large.