PURPOSE:We sought to assess recent trends in both sex of sex partners and sexual identity among US adolescents. One motivation for this investigation is that incidence of sexually transmitted infections is high among US adolescents, and varies along these dimensions; awareness of such trends may help to anticipate shifts in the upcoming needs for prevention and care. METHODS:We analyzed four biennial Youth Risk Behavior Survey waves (2015-2021; total n = 61,298). We used multinomial trend tests to assess changes in sex of sex partners among all respondents, and among those who had ever had sex. We then assessed trends in sexual identity, and in sex of sex partners disaggregated by sexual identity and by age. RESULTS:The proportion of female respondents reporting prior same-sex sexual contact increased significantly over time (7.4%-12.2%, p < .001), as it did for males (3.1%-3.8%, p < .02). Proportions with bisexual female, bisexual male, and lesbian identities also increased significantly, while gay male identity did not. There was no significant increase in the proportion of heterosexually-identified adolescents having same-sex contacts, but there was a significant decline in the proportion of gay male respondents having only female partners. Increases in female respondents with female partners occurred across individual ages from 14 to 17. DISCUSSION:Sexual identity and sexual contact patterns are both shifting among US adolescents. These may yield upcoming shifts in the distributions of different sexually transmitted infections, including HIV. The early age for some of these shifts are especially important to consider for sexual health education.

BackgroundOpioid overdose mortality in the US has exceeded one million deaths over the last two decades. A regulated opioid supply may help prevent future overdose deaths by reducing exposure to the unregulated opioid supply. We examined the acceptability, delivery model preference, and anticipated effectiveness of different regulated opioid models among people in the Seattle area who inject opioids.MethodsWe enrolled people who inject drugs in the 2022 Seattle-area National HIV Behavior Surveillance (NHBS) survey. Participants were recruited between July and December 2022 using respondent-driven sampling. Participants who reported injecting opioids (N = 453) were asked whether regulated opioids would be acceptable, their preferred model of receiving regulated opioids, and the anticipated change in individual overdose risk from accessing a regulated opioid supply.ResultsIn total, 369 (81 %) participants who injected opioids reported that a regulated opioid supply would be acceptable to them. Of the 369 who found a regulated opioid supply to be acceptable, the plurality preferred a take-home model where drugs are prescribed (35 %), followed closely by a dispensary model that required no prescription (28 %), and a prescribed model where drugs need to be consumed on site (13 %), a model where no prescription is required and drugs can be accessed in a community setting with a one-time upfront payment was the least preferred model (5 %). Most participants (69 %) indicated that receiving a regulated opioid supply would be “a lot less risky” than their current supply, 20 % said, “a little less risky”, 10 % said no difference, and 1 % said a little or a lot more risky.ConclusionA regulated opioid supply would be acceptable to most participants, and participants reported it would greatly reduce their risk of overdose. As overdose deaths continue to increase in Washington state pragmatic and effective solutions that reduce exposure to unregulated drugs are needed.

This study measures changes in condomless anal sex (CAS) among HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) who are not taking pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). It considers the 2014–2019 cycles of the American Men’s Internet Survey, a serial, cross-sectional web-based survey of US cisgender MSM aged ≥ 15 years, in which 10

Temporal exponential-family random graph models (TERGMs) are a flexible class of models for network ties that change over time. Separable TERGMs (STERGMs) are a subclass of TERGMs in which the dynamics of tie formation and dissolution can be separated within each discrete time step and may depend on different factors. The Carnegie et al. approximation improves estimation efficiency for a subclass of STERGMs, allowing them to be reliably estimated from inexpensive cross-sectional study designs. This approximation adapts to cross-sectional data by attempting to construct a STERGM with two specific properties: a cross-sectional equilibrium distribution defined by an exponential-family random graph model (ERGM) for the network structure, and geometric tie duration distributions defined by constant hazards for tie dissolution. In this article we focus on approaches for improving the behavior of the Carnegie et al. approximation and increasing its scope of application. We begin with Carnegie et al.'s observation that the exact result is tractable when the ERGM is dyad-independent, and then show that taking the sparse limit of the exact result leads to a different approximation than the one they presented. We show that the new approximation outperforms theirs for sparse, dyad-independent models, and observe that the errors tend to increase with the strength of dependence for dyad-dependent models. We then develop theoretical results in the dyad-dependent case, showing that when the ERGM is allowed to have arbitrary dyad-dependent terms and some dyad-dependent constraints, both the old and new approximations are asymptotically exact as the size of the STERGM time step goes to zero. We note that the continuous-time limit of the discrete-time approximations has the desired cross-sectional equilibrium distribution and exponential tie duration distributions with the desired means. We show that our results extend to hypergraphs, and we propose an extension of the Carnegie et al. framework to dissolution hazards that depend on tie age. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Introduction Antiretroviral medication coverage remains sub-optimal in much of the United States, particularly the Sothern region, and Non-Hispanic Black or African American persons (NHB) continue to be disproportionately impacted by the HIV epidemic. The “Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S.” (EHE) initiative seeks to reduce HIV incidence nationally by focusing resources towards the most highly impacted localities and populations. This study evaluates the impact of hypothetical improvements in ART and PrEP coverage to estimate the levels of coverage needed to achieve EHE goals in the South. Methods We developed a stochastic, agent-based network model of 500,000 individuals to simulate the HIV epidemic and hypothetical improvements in ART and PrEP coverage. Results New infections declined by 78.6% at 90%/40% ART/PrEP and 94.3% at 100%/50% ART/PrEP. Declines in annual incidence rates surpassed 75% by 2025 with 90%/40% ART/PrEP and 90% by 2030 with 100%/50% ART/PrEP coverage. Increased ART coverage among NHB MSM was associated with a linear decline in incidence among all MSM. Declines in incidence among Hispanic/Latino and White/Other MSM were similar regardless of which MSM race group increased their ART coverage, while the benefit to NHB MSM was greatest when their own ART coverage increased. The incidence rate among NHB women declined by over a third when either NHB heterosexual men or NHB MSM increased their ART use respectively. Increased use of PrEP was associated with a decline in incidence for the groups using PrEP. MSM experienced the largest absolute declines in incidence with increasing PrEP coverage, followed by NHB women. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that it is possible to reach EHE goals. The largest reductions in HIV incidence can be achieved by increasing ART coverage among MSM and all race groups benefit regardless of differences in ART initiation by race. Improving ART coverage to > 90% should be prioritized with a particular emphasis on reaching NHB MSM. Such a focus will reduce the largest number of incident cases, reduce racial HIV incidence disparities among both MSM and women, and reduce racial health disparities among persons with HIV. NHB women should also be prioritized for PrEP outreach.

Background: Oral and anal sex with opposite-sex partners is common and associated with sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission. Trends in these behaviors over the last decade, during which bacterial STI diagnoses have reached historic highs while HIV diagnoses have decreased, are not well understood. We examined recent trends in oral and anal sex and associated condom use with opposite-sex partners among females and males. Methods: We analyzed data from 16,926 female and 13,533 male respondents aged 15 to 44 years who reported sex with an opposite-sex partner in the past 12 months from the National Survey of Family Growth, 2011-2019. We used survey-weighted linear or logistic regression to evaluate linear temporal trends in oral and anal sex behaviors. Results: From 2011-2013 to 2017-2019, reports of oral sex and number of oral sex partners in the past 12 months increased among females (85.4% in 2011-2013 to 89.4% in 2017-2019; odds ratio [OR], 1.05 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.02-1.09], and beta = 0.014 [95% CI, 0.005-0.023]; respectively) but not males (ranges, 87.9%-89.1%; 1.27-1.31). Condom use at last oral sex decreased among both females and males (6.3%-4.3%: OR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99]; 5.9%-4.4%: OR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.91-1.00]). Anal sex (ranges, 21.0%-23.3% [females] and 23.3%-24.6% [males]), number of anal sex partners (females, 0.22-0.25; males, 0.26-0.30), and condom use at last anal sex (females, 15.3%-18.2%; males, 27.0%-28.7%) remained stable. Conclusions: The frequency of oral and anal sex with opposite-sex partners among U.S. 15- to 44-year-olds, paired with limited and-for oral sex-decreasing condom use, demonstrates the need to understand the role of these behaviors in increasing STI diagnosis rates and the potential role of extragenital screening and condoms in reducing STI transmission.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted HIV prevention, care, and transmission opportunities. This likely varies by geography, given differences in COVID-19 burden and mandates over time, and by age, given different likelihoods of severe COVID-19 consequences. We consider changes in sexual behavior, HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use among men who have sex with men (MSM) over the first year of the COVID-19 epidemic, comparing the Atlanta metropolitan area and New York City (NYC). We use two continuous time-series datasets and one panel dataset, assessing changes over time within city and comparing across cities, and disaggregate major findings by age. For clinical results, ART use showed by far the smallest reductions, and testing the largest. Disruptions occurred concurrently between cities, despite the major wave of COVID-19, and government mandates, occurring later in Atlanta. Test positivity increased in NYC only. In both cities, younger MSM saw the greatest reductions in testing and PrEP use, but the smallest in sexual behavior. Reduced clinical service usage would be unconcerning if stemming solely from reductions in exposure; however, the patterns for young MSM suggest that the COVID-19 epidemic likely generated new conditions for increased HIV transmission, especially in this cohort.

Background Sexually transmitted infections pose a major public health challenge in the United States and this burden is especially acute in subpopulations like young men who have sex with men (YMSM) and young transgender women (YTW). Yet, the direct behavioral antecedents of these infections are not well understood making it difficult to identify the cause of recent increases in incidence. This study examines how variations in partnership rates and the number of condomless sex acts are associated with STI infections among YMSM-YTW. Method This study leveraged 3 years of data from a large longitudinal cohort of YMSM-YTW. A series of generalized linear mixed models examined the association between the number of condomless anal sex acts, number of one-time partners, number of casual partners, and number of main partners and chlamydia, gonorrhea, or any STI. Results Results indicated the number of casual partners was associated with gonorrhea [aOR = 1.17 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.26)], chlamydia [aOR = 1.12 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.20)], and any STI [aOR = 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.21)] while the number of one-time partners was only associated with gonorrhea [aOR = 1.13 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.26)]. The number of condomless anal sex acts was not associated with any outcome. Conclusion These findings suggest the number of casual partners is a consistent predictor of STI infection among YMSM-YTW. This may reflect the quick saturation of risk within partnerships making the number of partners, rather than the number of acts, the more relevant factor for STI risk.

Background: Up to 69% of adults who acquire HIV in Kenya seek care for acute retroviral symptoms, providing an important opportunity for early diagnosis and HIV care engagement. The Tambua Mapema Plus (TMP) trial tested a combined HIV-1 nucleic acid testing, linkage, treatment, and partner notification intervention for adults with symptoms of acute HIV infection presenting to health facilities in coastal Kenya. We estimated the potential impact on the Kenyan HIV epidemic of providing PrEP to individuals testing negative in TMP, if scaled up.Methods: We developed an agent-based simulation of HIV-1 transmission using TMP data and current Kenyan statistics. PrEP interventions were layered onto a model of TMP as standard of care, to estimate additional potential population-level impact of enrolling HIV-negative individuals identified through TMP on PrEP over 10 years. Four scenarios were modeled: PrEP for uninfected individuals in disclosed serodiscordant couples; PrEP for individuals with concurrent partnerships; PrEP for all uninfected individuals identified through TMP; and PrEP integrated into the enhanced partner services component of TMP.Findings: Providing PrEP to both individuals with concurrent partnerships and uninfected partners identified through enhanced partner services reduced new HIV infections and was efficient based on numbers needed to treat (NNT). The mean percent of infections averted was 2.79 (95%SI:-10.83, 15.24) and 4.62 (95%SI:-9.5, 16.82) when PrEP uptake was 50% and 100%, respectively, and median NNT was 22.54 (95%SI:not defined, 6.45) and 27.55 (95%SI:not defined, 11.0), respectively. Providing PrEP for all uninfected individuals identified through TMP averted up to 12.68% (95%SI:0.17, 25.19) of new infections but was not efficient based on the NNT: 200.24 (95%SI:523.81, 123.23).Conclusions: Providing PrEP to individuals testing negative for HIV-1 nucleic acid after presenting to a health facility with symptoms compatible with acute HIV adds value to the TMP intervention, provided PrEP is targeted effectively and efficiently.

Background The “Ending the HIV Epidemic” (EHE) initiative seeks to reduce new HIV infections in the U.S. by prioritizing federal resources towards highly impacted populations. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are essential for reaching EHE goals. Adolescents are often at increased risk for HIV because they may lack agency in negotiating their sexual partnerships and may not have the same access to treatment and prevention as adults. This study estimates the potential contribution of expanded PrEP coverage among adolescents ages 15–17 to achieving the EHE goals in the South. Methods An HIV-transmission model was built to simulate the HIV epidemic in the South. Increased ART and PrEP uptake were systematically varied with and without PrEP eligibility including individuals age<18. Results Prioritizing PrEP for adolescents had a negligible impact on incidence. At 50% uptake among eligible adolescents and 90% ART coverage, including adolescents only improved the percentage of infections averted from 80.1% to 80.3%. In 10 of 15 scenarios explored, there was no reduction in new infections when PrEP eligibility was expanded to include adolescents age<18. At 95% ART coverage at the population-level incidence among adolescents declined by over 80%, but PrEP uptake among adolescents did not contribute to additional declines in incidence among adolescents. Conclusions Prioritizing PrEP for adolescents did not significantly contribute to reaching EHE incidence reductions goal. Focusing resources to specific adolescent populations at risk, such sexual minority males in high incidence settings, will remain an important public health goal outside the context of EHE.

Pathogens face a tradeoff with respect to virulence; while more virulent strains often have higher per-contact transmission rates, they are also more likely to kill their hosts earlier. Because virulence is a heritable trait, there is concern that a disease-modifying vaccine, which reduces the disease severity of an infected vaccinee without changing the underlying pathogen genotype, may result in the evolution of higher pathogen virulence. We explored the potential for such virulence evolution with a disease-modifying HIV-1 vaccine in an agent-based stochastic epidemic model of HIV in United States men who have sex with men (MSM). In the model, vaccinated agents received no protection against infection, but experienced lower viral loads and slower disease progression. We compared the genotypic set point viral load (SPVL), a measure of HIV virulence, in populations given vaccines that varied in the degree of SPVL reduction they induce. Sensitivity analyses were conducted under varying vaccine coverage scenarios. With continual vaccination rollout under ideal circumstances of 90 % coverage over thirty years, the genotypic SPVL of vaccinated individuals evolved to become greater than the genotypic SPVL of unvaccinated individuals. This virulence evolution in turn diminished the public health benefit of the vaccine, and in some scenarios resulted in an accelerated epidemic. These findings demonstrate the complexity of viral evolution and have important implications for the design and development of HIV vaccines.

Background: Set-point viral load (SPVL) correlates with the age at which people acquire HIV. Although immu-nosenescence may seem like a parsimonious explanation for this, it does not easily explain the observation that the relationship between age and SPVL attenuates when accounting for source partner SPVL. Here we propose an alternative explanation that encompasses this latter finding: that decreasing risk of acquisition with older age generates a selection bottleneck that selects for more virulent strains with age.Methods: We adapted a previously published model of HIV transmission and evolution (EvoNetHIV), parame-terized here for men who have sex with men (MSM). We conducted a series of simulation experiments that vary seven behavioral or clinical parameters that affect exposure risk as people age. We conducted regressions to determine the mean increase in SPVL per 10-year increase in seroconversion age, with and without source SPVL in the model.Results: All runs generated significant relationships between seroconversion age and SPVL when not including source SPVL. All saw attenuated relationships, most to near 0, with source SPVL included. Four of our behavioral measures (relational duration, age-related homophily, coital frequency, and mean age at relationship formation) had clear effects on this relationship, all in the hypothesized direction. Combining multiple forms of behavioral heterogeneity yielded an increase of 0.056 log10 copies/mL SPVL per 10-year increase in seroconversion age, nearly as large as that seen in two empirical studies of age-SPVL correlations in MSM.Conclusion: The higher virulence of HIV among those infected later in life may be partly explained by a com-bination of selective bottlenecks and behavioral heterogeneity by age. Variation in the strength of this effect across populations may be in part due to different behavioral, epidemiological and clinical conditions, and not require assumptions about differences in patterns of immunosenescence among populations.

Objective: To evaluate if community-level HIV PrEP coverage is correlated with individual sexual behaviors. Design: We used demographic, behavioral, and sexual network data from ARTnet, a 2017–2019 study of United States MSM. Methods: Multivariable regression models with a Bayesian modeling framework were used to estimate associations between area-level PrEP coverage and seven sexual behavior outcomes [number of total, main, and casual male partners (network degree); count of one-time partnerships; consistent condom use in one-time partnerships; and frequency of casual partnership anal sex (total and condomless)], controlling for individual PrEP use. Results: PrEP coverage ranged from 10.3% (Philadelphia) to 38.9% (San Francisco). Total degree was highest in Miami (1.35) and lowest in Denver (0.78), while the count of one-time partners was highest in San Francisco (11.7/year) and lowest in Detroit (1.5/year). Adjusting for individual PrEP use and demographics, community PrEP coverage correlated with total degree [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) = 1.73; 95% credible interval (CrI), 0.92–3.44], casual degree (aIRR = 2.05; 95% CrI, 0.90–5.07), and count of one-time partnerships (aIRR = 1.90; 95% CrI, 0.46–8.54). Without adjustment for individual PrEP use, these associations strengthened. There were weaker or no associations with consistent condom use in one-time partnerships (aIRR = 1.68; 95% CrI, 0.86–3.35), main degree (aIRR = 1.21; 95% CrI, 0.48–3.20), and frequency of casual partnership condomless anal sex (aIRR = 0.23; 95% CrI, 0.01–3.60). Conclusion: Most correlations between community PrEP coverage and sexual behavior were explained by individual PrEP use. However, some residual associations remained after controlling for individual PrEP use, suggesting that PrEP coverage may partially drive community-level differences in sexual behaviors.

ABSTRACTBackgroundMean active degree is an important proxy measure of cross-sectional network connectivity commonly used in HIV/STI epidemiology research. No current studies have compared measurement methods of mean degree using cross-sectional surveys for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States.MethodsWe compared mean degree estimates based on reported ongoing main and casual sexual partnerships (current method) against dates of first and last sex (retrospective method) from 0–12 months prior to survey date in ARTnet, a cross-sectional survey of MSM in the U.S. (2017–2019). ARTnet collected data on the number of sexual partners in the past year but limited reporting on details used for calculating mean degree to the 5 most recent partners. We used linear regression to understand the impact of truncated partnership data on mean degree estimation.ResultsRetrospective method mean degree systematically decreased as the month at which it was calculated increased from 0–12 months prior to survey date. Among participants with >5 partners in the past year compared to those with ≤5, the average change in main degree between 12 and 0 months prior to survey date was −0.05 (95% CI: −0.08, −0.03) after adjusting for race/ethnicity, age, and education. The adjusted average change in casual degree was −0.40 (95% CI: −0.45, −0.35).ConclusionsThe retrospective method underestimates mean degree for MSM in surveys with truncated partnership data, especially for casual partnerships. The current method is less prone to bias from partner truncation when the target population experiences higher cumulative partners per year.SummarySurvey designs can lead to potential bias, such as underestimation, in the measurement of mean active degree in sexual networks of men who have sex with men.

Rates of reported gonorrhea and chlamydial infections have increased substantially over the past decade in the USA and disparities persist across age and race/ethnicity. We aimed to understand potential changes in sexual behaviors, sexual network attributes, and sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening that may be contributing to these trends. We analyzed data from 29,423 female and 24,605 male respondents ages 15–44 years from the National Survey of Family Growth, 2008–2019. We used survey-weighted linear or logistic regression to evaluate linear temporal trends in sexual behaviors with opposite-sex partners, network attributes, and STI testing, treatment, and diagnosis. Significant declines were observed in condom use at last vaginal sex, mean number of vaginal sex acts, proportion of condom-protected sex acts in the past 4 weeks, and racial/ethnic homophily with current partners among males and females from 2008–2010 through 2017–2019. Among males, mean number of female partners in the past 12 months and concurrency also declined, while the percent reporting ever having sex with another male increased. Past-year testing for chlamydia and any STI increased among females. Research is needed to understand how these changes interact and potentially contribute to increasing reported gonorrhea and chlamydia diagnoses and identify avenues for future intervention.

Background Detection of acute and prevalent HIV infection using point-of-care nucleic acid amplification testing (POC-NAAT) among outpatients with symptoms compatible with acute HIV is critical to HIV prevention, but it is not clear if it is cost-effective compared with existing HIV testing strategies. Methods We developed and parametrised a decision tree to compare the cost-effectiveness of (1) provider-initiated testing and counselling (PITC) using rapid tests, the standard of care; (2) scaled-up provider-initiated testing and counselling (SU-PITC) in which all patients were tested with rapid tests unless they opted out; and (3) opt-out testing and counselling using POC-NAAT, which detects both acute and prevalent infection. The model-based analysis used data from the Tambua Mapema Plus randomised controlled trial of a POC-NAAT intervention in Kenya, supplemented with results from a stochastic, agent-based network model of HIV-1 transmission and data from published literature. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of the Kenyan government using a primary outcome of cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted over a 10-year time horizon. Results After analysing the decision-analytical model, the average per patient cost of POC-NAAT was $214.9 compared with $173.6 for SU-PITC and $47.3 for PITC. The mean DALYs accumulated per patient for POC-NAAT were 0.160 compared with 0.176 for SU-PITC and 0.214 for PITC. In the incremental analysis, SU-PITC was eliminated due to extended dominance, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) comparing POC-NAAT to PITC was $3098 per DALY averted. The ICER was sensitive to disability weights for HIV/AIDS and the costs of antiretroviral therapy. Conclusion POC-NAAT offered to adult outpatients in Kenya who present for care with symptoms compatible with AHI is cost-effective and should be considered for inclusion as the standard of HIV testing in this population. Trial registration number Tambua Mapema (“Discover Early”) Plus study (NCT03508908) conducted in Kenya (2017–2020) i.e., Post-results.

Study Objectives Adolescent pregnancies and births in the United States have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We aimed to estimate the contribution of changes in 3 proximal behaviors to these declines among 14- to 18-year-olds for 2007-2017: 1) delays in age at first sexual intercourse, 2) declines in number of sexual partners, and 3) changes in contraceptive use, particularly uptake of long-acting reversible contraception (LARC). Design We adapted an existing iterative dynamic population model and parameterized it using 6 waves of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Youth Risk Behavior Survey. We compared pregnancies from observed behavioral trends with counterfactual scenarios that assumed constant behaviors over the decade. We calculated outcomes by cause, year, and age. Results We found that changes in these behaviors could explain pregnancy reductions of 496,200, 78,500, and 40,700 over the decade, respectively, with total medical and societal cost savings of $9.71 billion, $1.54 billion, and $796 million. LARC adoption, particularly among 18-year-olds, could explain much of the improvement from contraception use. The 3 factors together did not fully explain observed birth declines; adding a 50% decline in sex acts per partner did. Conclusions Delays in first sexual intercourse contributed the most to declining births over this decade, although all behaviors considered had major effects. Differences from earlier models could result from differences in years and ages covered. Evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention programs, including comprehensive sex education, youth-friendly reproductive health services, and parental and community support, can continue to address these drivers and reduce teen pregnancy.

BACKGROUND:Up to 69% of adults who acquire HIV in Kenya seek care before seroconversion, providing an important opportunity for early diagnosis and treatment. The Tambua Mapema Plus (TMP) trial tested a combined HIV-1 nucleic acid testing, linkage, treatment, and partner notification intervention for adults aged 18-39 years with symptoms of acute HIV infection presenting to health facilities in coastal Kenya. We estimated the potential impact of TMP on the Kenyan HIV epidemic. METHODS:We developed an agent-based network model of HIV-1 transmission using TMP data and Kenyan statistics to estimate potential population-level impact of targeted facility-based testing over 10 years. Three scenarios were modeled: standard care [current use of provider-initiated testing and counseling (PITC)], standard HIV rapid testing scaled to higher coverage obtained in TMP (scaled-up PITC), and the TMP intervention. RESULTS:Standard care resulted in 90.7% of persons living with HIV (PLWH) knowing their status, with 67.5% of those diagnosed on treatment. Scaled-up PITC resulted in 94.4% of PLWH knowing their status and 70.4% of those diagnosed on treatment. The TMP intervention achieved 97.5% of PLWH knowing their status and 80.6% of those diagnosed on treatment. The percentage of infections averted was 1.0% (95% simulation intervals: -19.2% to 19.9%) for scaled-up PITC and 9.4% (95% simulation intervals: -8.1% to 24.5%) for TMP. CONCLUSION:Our study suggests that leveraging new technologies to identify acute HIV infection among symptomatic outpatients is superior to scaled-up PITC in this population, resulting in >95% knowledge of HIV status, and would reduce new HIV infections in Kenya.

Background Detection and management of acute HIV infection (AHI) is a clinical and public health priority, and HIV infections diagnosed among young adults aged 18 to 39 years are usually recent. Young adults with recent HIV acquisition frequently seek care for symptoms and could potentially be diagnosed through the health care system. Early recognition of HIV infection provides considerable individual and public health benefits, including linkage to treatment as prevention, access to risk reduction counseling and treatment, and notification of partners in need of HIV testing. Objective The Tambua Mapema Plus study aims to (1) test 1500 young adults (aged 18-39 years) identified by an AHI screening algorithm for acute and prevalent (ie, seropositive) HIV, linking all newly diagnosed HIV-infected patients to care and offering immediate treatment; (2) offer assisted HIV partner notification services to all patients with HIV, testing partners for acute and prevalent HIV infection and identifying local sexual networks; and (3) model the potential impact of these two interventions on the Kenyan HIV epidemic, estimating incremental costs per HIV infection averted, death averted, and disability-adjusted life year averted using data on study outcomes. Methods A modified stepped-wedge design is evaluating the yield of this HIV testing intervention at 4 public and 2 private health facilities in coastal Kenya before and after intervention delivery. The intervention uses point-of-care HIV-1 RNA testing combined with standard rapid antibody tests to diagnose AHI and prevalent HIV among young adults presenting for care, employs HIV partner notification services to identify linked acute and prevalent infections, and follows all newly diagnosed patients and their partners for 12 months to ascertain clinical outcomes, including linkage to care, antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and virologic suppression in HIV-infected patients, and pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake in uninfected individuals in discordant partnerships. Results Enrollment started in December 2017. As of April 2020, 1374 participants have been enrolled in the observation period and 1500 participants have been enrolled in the intervention period, with 13 new diagnoses (0.95%) in the observation period and 37 new diagnoses (2.47%), including 2 AHI diagnoses, in the intervention period. Analysis is ongoing and will include adjusted comparisons of the odds of the following outcomes in the observation and intervention periods: being tested for HIV infection, newly diagnosed with prevalent or acute HIV infection, linked to care, and starting ART by week 6 following HIV diagnosis. Participants newly diagnosed with acute or prevalent HIV infection in the intervention period are being followed for outcomes, including viral suppression by month 6 and month 12 following ART initiation and partner testing outcomes. Conclusions The Tambua Mapema Plus study will provide foundational data on the potential of this novel combination HIV prevention intervention to reduce ongoing HIV transmission in Kenya and other high-prevalence African settings. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03508908; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03508908 International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) DERR1-10.2196/16198