The continuous improvement in weather forecast skill over the past several decades is largely due to the increasing quantity of available satellite observations and their assimilation into operational forecast systems. Assimilating these observations requires observation operators in the form of radiative transfer models. Significant efforts have been dedicated to enhancing the computational efficiency of these models. Computational cost remains a bottleneck, and a large fraction of available data goes unused for assimilation. To address this, we used machine learning to build an efficient neural network based probabilistic emulator of the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), applied to the GOES Advanced Baseline Imager. The trained NN emulator predicts brightness temperatures output by CRTM and the corresponding error with respect to CRTM. RMSE of the predicted brightness temperature is 0.3 K averaged across all channels. For clear sky conditions, the RMSE is less than 0.1 K for 9 out of 10 infrared channels. The error predictions are generally reliable across a wide range of conditions. Explainable AI methods demonstrate that the trained emulator reproduces the relevant physics, increasing confidence that the model will perform well when presented with new data.

The launch of the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) mission in 2023 marked a new era in air quality monitoring by providing high-frequency, geostationary observations of column NO2 across most of North America. In this study, we present the first implementation of a TEMPO NO2 data assimilation system using the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) framework. Leveraging a four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) approach and an Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA), we demonstrate a novel capability to assimilate hourly NO2 retrievals from TEMPO alongside polar-orbiting TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) data into NASA's GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) model. The system is evaluated over the CONUS region for August 2023, using a suite of independent measurements including Pandora spectrometers, AirNow surface stations, and aircraft-based observations from Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) and Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science (STAQS) field campaigns. Results show that the assimilation system successfully integrates geostationary NO2 observations, improves model performance in the column, and captures diurnal variability. However, assimilation also leads to systematic reductions in NO2 levels, which improves agreement with some data sets (e.g., Pandora, AEROMMA) but degrades comparisons with others (e.g., STAQS). These findings highlight the importance of joint evaluation across platforms and motivate further development of dual-concentration emission assimilation schemes. While the system imposes high computational costs, primarily from the forecast model, ongoing efforts to integrate AI-based model emulators offer a promising path toward scalable, real-time assimilation of geostationary atmospheric composition data.

The CRTM transmittance coefficient generation package is a high-performance computing workflow to generate spectral and transmittance coefficients for the JCSDA Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), which is used as an observation operator in satellite data assimilation applications. The characteristics of new instruments, whose observations are modeled by the CRTM, are encapsulated in these aforementioned coefficient data structures. This approach is a key factor in achieving the necessary high computational speeds with the CRTM. Complex atmospheric transmittance spectra in particular are approximated using the ODPS and ODAS algorithms. The transmittance coefficient generation package for the first time provides a unified and reproducible workflow to CRTM generate coefficients.

In numerical weather prediction (NWP), a large number of observations are used to create initial conditions for weather forecasting through a process known as data assimilation. An assessment of the value of these observations for NWP can guide us in the design of future observation networks, help us to identify problems with the assimilation system, and allow us to assess changes to the assimilation system. However, assessment can be challenging in convection‐permitting NWP. This is because verification of convection‐permitting forecasts is not easy, the forecast model is strongly nonlinear, a limited‐area model is used, and the observations used often contain complex error statistics and are often associated with nonlinear observation operators. We compare methods that can be used to assess the value of observations in convection‐permitting NWP and discuss operational considerations when using these methods. We focus on their applicability to ensemble forecasting systems, as these systems are becoming increasingly dominant for convection‐permitting NWP. We also identify several future research directions, which include comparing results from different methods, comparing forecast validation using analyses versus using observations, applying flow‐dependent covariance localization, investigating the effect of ensemble size on the assessment, and generating and validating the nature run in observing‐system simulation experiments.

An ensemble of 3D ensemble-variational (En-3DEnVar) data assimilations is demonstrated with the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) with the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) (i.e., JEDI-MPAS). Basic software building blocks are reused from previously presented deterministic 3DEnVar functionality and combined with a formal experimental workflow manager in MPAS-Workflow. En-3DEnVar is used to produce an 80-member ensemble of analyses, which are cycled with ensemble forecasts in a 1-month experiment. The ensemble forecasts approximate a purely flow-dependent background error covariance (BEC) at each analysis time. The En-3DEnVar BECs and prior ensemble-mean forecast errors are compared to those produced by a similar experiment that uses the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). The experiment using En-3DEnVar produces a similar ensemble spread to and slightly smaller errors than the EAKF. The ensemble forecasts initialized from En-3DEnVar and EAKF analyses are used as BECs in deterministic cycling 3DEnVar experiments, which are compared to a control experiment that uses 20-member MPAS-A forecasts initialized from Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) initial conditions. The experimental ensembles achieve mostly equivalent or better performance than the off-the-shelf ensemble system in this deterministic cycling setting, although there are many obvious differences in configuration between GEFS and the two MPAS ensemble systems. An additional experiment that uses hybrid 3DEnVar, which combines the En-3DEnVar ensemble BEC with a climatological BEC, increases tropospheric forecast quality compared to the corresponding pure 3DEnVar experiment. The JEDI-MPAS En-3DEnVar is technically working and useful for future research studies. Tuning of observation errors and spread is needed to improve performance, and several algorithmic advancements are needed to improve computational efficiency for larger-scale applications.

In numerical weather prediction (NWP), a large number of observations are used to create initial conditions for weather forecasting through a process known as data assimilation. An assessment of the value of these observations for NWP can guide us in the design of future observation networks, help us to identify problems with the assimilation system, and allow us to assess changes to the assimilation system. However, the assessment can be challenging in convection-permitting NWP. First, the strong nonlinearity in the forecast model limits the methods available for the assessment. Second, convection-permitting NWP typically uses a limited area model and provides short forecasts, giving problems with verification and our ability to gather sufficient statistics. Third, convection-permitting NWP often makes use of novel observations, which can be difficult to simulate in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). We compare methods that can be used to assess the value of observations in convection-permitting NWP and discuss operational considerations when using these methods. We focus on their applicability to ensemble forecasting systems, as these systems are becoming increasingly dominant for convection-permitting NWP. We also identify several future research directions: comparison of forecast validation using analyses and observations, the effect of ensemble size on assessing the value of observations, flow-dependent covariance localization, and generation and validation of the nature run in an OSSE.

The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a fast, 1D radiative transfer model used in numerical weather prediction, calibration/validation, etc., across multiple federal agencies and universities. The key benefit of the CRTM is that it is a satellite simulator. It provides a highly accurate representation of satellite radiances by using the specific sensor response functions convolved with a Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM). CRTM covers the spectral ranges consistent with all present operational and most research satellites, from visible to microwave. The capability to simulate ultraviolet radiances and support space-based radar sensors is being added over the next 2 years in CRTM version 3.0. In addition to simulated radiances, the CRTM also provides Jacobian outputs needed to interpret satellite observations for numerical weather prediction. The Jacobian estimates how changes in geophysical parameters affect simulated measurements from satellite sensors. Using the Jacobian in modeling and weather prediction improves the accuracy and efficiency of data analysis, leading to better weather predictions. The CRTM model's success and growth depend on community contributions and evaluation. To facilitate this, we have made the CRTM highly accessible through modular programming, clear documentation and tutorials, public domain licensing, unfettered public access via GitHub, and a clear path to operational implementation for innovative research. We encourage and welcome contributions from the community to help us continue to improve the CRTM.

On 24 September 2021, JEDI-MPAS 1.0.0, a new data assimilation (DA) system for the Model Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) built on the software framework of the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) was publicly released for community use. Operating directly on the native MPAS unstructured mesh, JEDI-MPAS capabilities include three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and ensemble–variational (EnVar) schemes as well as the ensemble of DA (EDA) technique. On the observation side, one advanced feature in JEDI-MPAS is the full all-sky approach for satellite radiance DA with the introduction of hydrometeor analysis variables. This paper describes the formulation and implementation of EnVar for JEDI-MPAS. JEDI-MPAS 1.0.0 is evaluated with month-long cycling 3DEnVar experiments with a global 30–60 km dual-resolution configuration. The robustness and credible performance of JEDI-MPAS are demonstrated by establishing a benchmark non-radiance DA experiment, then incrementally adding microwave radiances from three sources: Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) temperature sounding channels in clear-sky scenes, AMSU-A window channels in all-sky scenes, and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) water vapor channels in clear-sky scenes. JEDI-MPAS 3DEnVar behaves well with a substantial and significant positive impact obtained for almost all aspects of forecast verification when progressively adding more microwave radiance data. In particular, the day 5 forecast of the best-performing JEDI-MPAS experiment yields an anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of 0.8 for 500 hPa geopotential height, a gap of roughly a half day when compared to cold-start forecasts initialized from operational analyses of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, whose ACC does not drop to 0.8 until a lead time of 5.5 d. This indicates JEDI-MPAS's great potential for both research and operations.

A s many of you already know, given the situation surrounding COVID-19 and in response to a June survey where an overwhelming majority of AMS members and usual Annual Meeting attendees noted that they were not comfortable traveling to New Orleans for in-person sessions, we made the decision to move all oral and poster sessions, panel discussions, exhibits, and some networking for the 101st Annual Meeting to a virtual format.At the time of publication, we are continuing to monitor the situation around COVID-19 and are looking into the options for a smaller, in-person meeting in New Orleans for those who would still like to gather, if it will be safe to do so.We are also in the process of encouraging our local chapters to host socially distant gatherings during the week of the 101st Annual Meeting.We will share more details on our website as they become available.The theme of the 101st Annual Meeting is "Strengthening Engagement with Communities through Our Science and Services."AMS President Mary Glackin and her Overall Planning Committee are looking forward to leading the AMS into its next century by being adaptable and innovative.We feel the virtual platform will allow us to attract many new attendees and allow for a level of inclusiveness that is much higher than we have been able to have in the past.As we continue to share details on the planning over the next few months, know that we are working to keep everyone engaged and are confident that we will be able to organize a successful meeting and allow participants to share their science and connect with one another.In this, the first of three Annual Meeting Previews that will be published in BAMS, we will introduce you to the organizers and participation conferences and symposia for the 101st Annual Meeting.We will also provide initial information for registering for and attending the Annual Meeting virtually.As our plans develop, we will continue to update the 101st AMS Annual Meeting FAQs at https://annual.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/2021/about-the-meeting/faq-for-virtual-elements-of-the-annual-meeting/ and website at https://annual.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/2021/.We encourage you to check these sites regularly as well as look out for the 101st Annual Meeting Previews that will

Estimation of turbulent heat fluxes via variational data assimilation (VDA) approaches has been the subject of several studies. The VDA approaches need an adjoint model that is difficult to derive. In this study, remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are assimilated into the heat diffusion equation within an ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) approach to estimate turbulent heat fluxes. The EnKS approach is tested in the Heihe River Basin (HRB) in northwest China. The results show that the EnKS approach can estimate turbulent heat fluxes by assimilating low temporal resolution LST data from MODIS. The findings indicate that the EnKS approach performs fairly well in various hydrological and vegetative conditions. The estimated sensible (H) and latent (LE) heat fluxes are compared with the corresponding observations from large aperture scintillometer systems at three sites (namely, Arou, Daman, and Sidaoqiao) in the HRB. The turbulent heat flux estimates from EnKS agree reasonably well with the observations, and are comparable to those of the VDA approach. The EnKS approach also provides statistical information on the H and LE estimates. It is found that the uncertainties of H and LE estimates are higher over wet and/or densely vegetated areas (grassland and forest) compared to the dry and/or slightly vegetated areas (cropland, shrubland, and barren land).

Estimation of turbulent heat fluxes by assimilating sequences of land surface temperature (LST) measurements into variational data assimilation (VDA) frameworks has been the subject of several studies. The VDA approaches estimate turbulent heat fluxes by minimizing the difference between LST observations and estimations from the heat diffusion equation. The VDA methods have been tested only with high temporal resolution LST observations (e.g., from geostationary satellites) when applied at regional scales. Geostationary satellites can capture the diurnal cycle of LST, but they have a relatively low spatial resolution and mainly focus on low latitudes. To overcome these shortcomings, this study assimilates high spatial resolution LST data from polar orbiting satellites (e.g., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS) into the combined-source (CS) and dual-source (DS) VDA schemes. An expression is developed to obtain an a priori evaporative fraction (EF) estimate from leaf area index (LAI) or apparent thermal inertia (ATI). The a priori EF estimate is used as an initial guess in the VDA approach. The results indicate that the VDA method is able to find the optimal value of EF by assimilating the low-temporal resolution MODIS LST data. The predicted turbulent heat fluxes from VDA are compared with the measurements from the large-aperture scintillometer at three sites (Arou, Daman, and Sidaoqiao) in the Heihe River Basin (located in northwest China). The findings indicate that the CS and DS VDA models perform well in various hydrological and vegetative conditions. The three-site-average root mean square errors (RMSEs) of sensible and latent heat fluxes estimates from the CS scheme are 37.44 W m(-2) and 94.30 W m(-2), respectively. The DS model reduces the above mentioned RMSEs by 19.82% and 21.37%, respectively. Overall, the results show that using the a priori EF estimate from the proposed expression in the VDA approach eliminates the need for the high resolution LST data from geostationary satellites, and allows the VDA method to estimate turbulent heat fluxes by assimilating LST data from polar orbiting satellites. Finally, several numerical tests are conducted to assess the effect of LST temporal sampling on the turbulent heat fluxes estimates. The results show that the LST measurement at 1400 Local Time (LT) has the most amount of information for partitioning the available energy into sensible and latent heat fluxes.

In different studies, land surface temperature (LST) observations have been assimilated into the variational data assimilation (VDA) approaches to estimate turbulent heat fluxes. The VDA methods yield accurate turbulent heat fluxes, but they need an adjoint model, which is difficult to derive and code. They also cannot directly calculate the uncertainty of their estimates. To overcome the abovementioned drawbacks, this study assimilates LST data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite into the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) data assimilation system to estimate turbulent heat fluxes. EnKS does not need to derive the adjoint term and directly generates statistical information on the accuracy of its predictions. It uses the heat diffusion equation to simulate LST. EnKS with the state augmentation approach finds the optimal values for the unknown parameters (i.e., evaporative fraction and neutral bulk heat transfer coefficient, C-HN) by minimizing the misfit between LST observations from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite and LST estimations from the heat diffusion equation. The augmented EnKS scheme is tested over six Ameriflux sites with a wide range of hydrological and vegetative conditions. The results show that EnKS can predict not only the model parameters and turbulent heat fluxes but also their uncertainties over a variety of land surface conditions. Compared to the variational method, EnKS yields suboptimal turbulent heat fluxes. However, suboptimality of EnKS is small, and its results are comparable to those of the VDA method. Overall, EnKS is a feasible and reliable method for estimation of turbulent heat fluxes.

A number of studies have estimated turbulent heat fluxes by assimilating sequences of land surface temperature (LST) observations into the strong constraint-variational data assimilation (SC-VDA) approaches. The SC-VDA approaches do not account for the structural model errors and uncertainties in the micrometeorological variables. In contrast to the SC-VDA approaches, the WC-VDA approach (the so-called weak constraint-VDA) accounts for the effects of structural and model errors by adding a model error term. In this study, the WC-VDA approach is tested at six study sites with different climatic and vegetative conditions. Its performance is also compared with that of SC-VDA at the six study sites. The results show that the WC-VDA produces 10.16% and 10.15% lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) for sensible and latent heat flux estimates compared with the SC-VDA approach. The model error term can capture errors in the turbulent heat flux estimates due to errors in LST and micrometeorological measurements, as well as structural model errors, and does not allow those errors to adversely affect the turbulent heat flux estimates. The findings also indicate that the estimated model error term varies reasonably well, so as to capture the misfit between predicted and observed net radiation in different hydrological and vegetative conditions. Finally, synthetically generated positive (negative) noises are added to the hydrological input variables (e.g., LST, air temperature, air humidity, incoming solar radiation, and wind speed) to examine whether the WC-VDA approach can capture those errors. It was found that the WC-VDA approach accounts for the errors in the input data and reduces their effect on the turbulent heat flux estimates.