Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is an emerging carbon dioxide removal (CDR) pathway that has been heavily explored for agricultural systems. There may also be co-benefits from this approach in historically acidified forest ecosystems by replenishing depleted nutrient cations, leading to increased tree growth. However, far less analysis has been conducted for forest land applications. Process-based modeling of these benefits is currently preferable because there are insufficient empirical data on ERW in forests to effectively capture the spatial heterogeneity in climate, soils, and geology across the U.S. We developed and calibrated a mechanistic model that simulated a single 40 tonne per hectare basalt application rate across 132 million hectares of practically manageable forested land within the conterminous United States. The gross CDR potential is 660 Mt CO2e from a single application, annualized to 66.0 Mt CO2e yr−1 over 10 years. Abiotic ERW was geographically dispersed and accounted for 76.6% of the total, while biotic ERW accounted for 23.4% and was clustered in the Pacific Northwest and the East. After carbon penalties were assessed, using a life cycle assessment, the net CDR potential is 353 Mt CO2e from a single application (35.3 Mt CO2e yr−1 over 10 years), with opportunities to increase net sequestration through reapplication. In this study we provide the first detailed assessment of the potential for ERW in U.S. forests under realistic supply-chain assumptions.

A century of beech bark disease (BBD) in North America has transformed hardwood forests by reducing the canopy biomass of American beech (Fagus grandifolia), even as beech has come to dominate the sapling layer of many forests. We do not understand the extent to which environmental change drivers such as climate, acidic atmospheric deposition (and its legacy of acidified soils), and invasive disease (BBD) may have contributed to this transformation. We investigated how BBD effects and tree community composition varied along a well-documented soil acidity gradient in the northeastern United States. We surveyed overstory and sapling layer tree species composition, BBD effects, and soil chemistry on 30 watersheds in forests co-dominated by beech and sugar maple (Acer saccharum). We analyzed potential drivers of community composition, BBD, and beech sapling density using linear models and non-metric multidimensional scaling. Predictors accounted for soil chemistry, climate, overstory beech (importance value, IV), mortality, and BBD defect. Overall overstory species composition varied most along the acidity gradient, while beech and BBD severity varied along their own distinct environmental gradient. Species composition of the overstory and sapling layers diverged significantly, with the latter dominated by beech. Beech sapling density was positively related to the proportion of standing dead overstory beech and soil exchangeable aluminum, but was unrelated to the overall proportion of overstory beech or their BBD severity. The dominance of sapling layers by beech may have resulted from a gradual accumulation of canopy-opening events precipitated by BBD and sugar maple decline, the latter driven by stressors such as acidification and climate change.

Climate change is expected to shift climatic envelopes of temperate tree species into boreal forests where unsuitable soils may limit range expansion. We studied several edaphic thresholds (mycorrhizae, soil chemistry) that can limit seedling establishment of two major temperate tree species, sugar maple (arbuscular mycorrhizal, AM) and American beech (ectomycorrhizal, EM). We integrate two field surveys of tree seedling density, mycorrhizal colonization, and soil chemistry in montane forests of the Adirondack and Green Mountains (Mtns) in the northeastern United States. We conducted correlation and linear breakpoint analyses to detect soil abiotic and biotic thresholds in seedling distributions across edaphic gradients. In the Green Mtns, sugar maple seedling importance (an index of species relative density and frequency, IV) declined sharply with low pH (< 3.74 in mineral soil) and low mycorrhizal colonization (< 27.5

With climate change and ongoing impacts from human development and resource extraction, US federal land management agencies are acutely concerned with managing for healthy aquatic ecosystems in the Southern Appalachian Mountain (SAM) Region. Here, we describe development of a spatial decision support application to assess the biological and ecological impacts of atmospheric S and N deposition on aquatic ecosystems of the region. We first summarize foundational published work to predict continuous maps of surface water acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and soil base cation weathering (BCw). We use the predicted ANC and BCw maps to estimate steady-state critical loads (CLs) of atmospheric S and N deposition. We included estimated CLs of atmospheric N to get a complete picture of CLs and potential exceedances. We then present a logic-based decision support model for assessing effects of S and N deposition based on statistically modeled stream ANC and CL exceedance. The model is easily modified for continuous monitoring of CL exceedance patterns as new S and N deposition and ANC data become available. We present mapped model results for the SAM study area and an important subset of the region, the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. ANC modeling results revealed that predicted acid sensitivity was spatially variable, with areas of relatively low stream ANC (<50 mu eq . L-1) and soil BCw (<50 meq . m(-2) . year(-1)) predominantly found in certain critical areas. Within the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, evidence for S CL exceedance based on an ANC criterion of 50 mu eq . L-1 was strong at locations where ambient S deposition was at least two times the CL. We also predicted likely impacts of CL exceedances on aquatic insect species richness and native fish abundance. Responses for insect species richness and fish impact showed variability similar to CL exceedance, with increasing impact positively correlated with elevation. Finally, we discuss ways that the decision support system can be used to prioritize management across the region.

Critical loads (CLs) and target loads (TLs) of atmospheric deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) specify the thresholds of air pollution above which damage to ecosystems is expected to occur and are used to inform environmental regulation and natural resource management. Model estimates of CL and TL can vary for a given location, and these differences can be important for characterization of ecosystem effects from elevated S and N deposition. Moreover, TLs are used to evaluate associated timeframes of ecosystem recovery. We compared published CLs and TLs based on soil acidity criteria derived from steady-state versus dynamic models for terrestrial ecosystems. We examined the magnitude of differences in the CL/TL results from the two types of models for the same regions in the Eastern U.S. Results showed that CLs/TLs from dynamic models (or from steady state modeling using soil base cation weathering estimates from dynamic models) generally produce a broader range of values of acid-sensitivity, including lower CLs/TLs, as compared with a steady-state approach. Applications of dynamic biogeochemical models capable of developing CLs/TLs are relatively data intensive and typically limited to locations where measured soil and soil solution (or nearby stream water) chemistry are available for model parameterization, calibration, and testing. We recommend that CLs/TLs derived from dynamic models be used, where data permit, as they are likely more accurate and allow for evaluation of timedependent phenomena and period needed for recovery. However, CLs derived from steady-state models remain a useful tool for understanding broad spatial patterns in soil acid-sensitivity throughout the U.S. Future work should focus on the development of more reliable model input parameters, particularly soil base cation weathering, and the extent to which CLs and TLs at a given location may vary and be altered with anticipated future climate change. In addition, dynamic models could be further developed to estimate CLs/TLs for nutrient N.

Forest understory plant communities in the United States harbor most of the vegetation diversity of forests and are often sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N). As temperature increases from human-caused climate change and soils recover from long term atmospheric deposition of N and sulfur (S), it is unclear how these important ecosystem components will respond. We used the newly developed US-PROPS model - based on species response functions for over 1,500 species - to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on species occurrence probability for a case study in the forested ecosystems of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), an iconic park in the southeastern United States. We evaluated six future scenarios from various combinations of two potential recoveries of soil pH (no change, +0.5 pH units) and three climate futures (no change, +1.5, +3.0 deg C). Species critical loads (CLs) of N deposition and projected responses for each scenario were determined. Critical loads were estimated to be low (< 2 kg N/ha/yr) to protect all species under current and expected future conditions across broad regions of GRSM and these CLs were exceeded at large spatial extents among scenarios. Northern hardwood, yellow pine, and chestnut oak forests were among the most N-sensitive vegetation map classes found within GRSM. Potential future air temperature conditions generally led to decreases in the maximum occurrence probability for species. Therefore, CLs were considered "unattainable" in these situations because the specified level of protection used for CL determination (i.e., maximum occurrence probability under ambient conditions) was not attainable. Although some species showed decreases in maximum occurrence probability with simulated increases in soil pH, most species were favored by increased pH. The importance of our study is rooted in the methodology described here for establishing regional CLs and for evaluating future conditions, which is transferable to other national parks in the U.S. and in Europe where the original PROPS model was developed.

Acidic deposition contributes to a range of environmental impacts across forested landscapes, including acidification of soil and drainage water, toxic aluminum mobilization, depletion of available soil nutrient cations, and impacts to forest and aquatic species health and biodiversity. In response to decreasing levels of acidic deposition, soils and drainage waters in some regions of North America have become gradually less acidic. Thresholds of atmospheric deposition at which adverse ecological effects are manifested are called critical loads (CLs) and/or target loads (TLs). Target loads are developed based on approaches that account for spatial and temporal aspects of acidification and recovery. Exceedance represents the extent to which current or projected future levels of acidic deposition exceed the level expected to cause ecological harm. We report TLs of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition and the potential for ecosystem recovery of watershed soils and streams in the Adirondack region of New York State, resources that have been less thoroughly investigated than lakes. Regional TLs were calculated by statistical extrapolation of hindcast and forecast simulations of 25 watersheds using the process-based model PnET-BGC coupled with empirical observations of stream hydrology and established sensitivity of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) to soil base saturation and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) to stream acid neutralizing capacity (ANC). Historical impacts and the expected recovery timeline of regional soil and stream chemistry and fish community condition within the Adirondack Park were evaluated. Analysis suggests that many low-order Adirondack streams and associated watershed soils have low TLs (<40 meq/m2/yr of N + S deposition) to achieve specified benchmarks for recovery of soil base saturation or stream ANC. Acid-sensitive headwater and low-order streams and watershed soils in the region are expected to experience continued adverse effects from N and S deposition well into the future even under aggressive emissions reductions. Watershed soils and streams in the western Adirondack Park are particularly vulnerable to acidic deposition and currently in exceedance of TLs. The methods used for linking statistical and process-based models to consider chemical and biological response under varying flow conditions at the regional scale in this study can be applied to other areas of concern.

Forest understory plant communities in the eastern United States are often diverse and are potentially sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric inputs of nitrogen caused by air pollution. In recent years, empirical and processed-based mathematical models have been developed to investigate such changes in plant communities. In the study reported here, a robust set of understory vegetation response functions (expressed as version 2 of the Probability of Occurrence of Plant Species model for the United States [US-PROPS v2]) was developed based on observations of forest understory and grassland plant species presence/absence and associated abiotic characteristics derived from spatial datasets. Improvements to the US-PROPS model, relative to version 1, were mostly focused on inclusion of additional input data, development of custom species-level input datasets, and implementation of methods to address uncertainty. We investigated the application of US-PROPS v2 to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, and climate change on forest ecosystems at three forested sites located in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee in the eastern United States. Species-level N and S critical loads (CLs) were determined under ambient deposition at all three modeled sites. The lowest species-level CLs of N deposition at each site were between 2 and 11 kg N/ha/yr. Similarly, the lowest CLs of S deposition, based on the predicted soil pH response, were less than 2 kg S/ha/yr among the three sites. Critical load exceedance was found at all three model sites. The New Hampshire site included the largest percentage of species in exceedance. Simulated warming air temperature typically resulted in lower maximum occurrence probability, which contributed to lower CLs of N and S deposition. The US-PROPS v2 model, together with the PROPS-CLF model to derive CL functions, can be used to develop site-specific CLs for understory plants within broad regions of the United States. This study demonstrates that species-level CLs of N and S deposition are spatially variable according to the climate, light availability, and soil characteristics at a given location. Although the species niche models generally performed well in predicting occurrence probability, there remains uncertainty with respect to the accuracy of reported CLs. As such, the specific CLs reported here should be considered as preliminary estimates.

The present-day acid-base chemistry of surface waters can be directly linked to contemporary observations of acid deposition; however, pre-industrial conditions are key to predicting the potential future recovery of stream ecosystems under decreasing loads of atmospheric sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition. The integrated biogeochemical model PnET-BGC was applied to 25 forest watersheds that represent a range of acid sensitivity in the Adirondack region of New York, USA to simulate the response of streams to past and future changes in atmospheric S and N deposition, and calculate the target loads of acidity for protecting and restoring stream water quality and ecosystem health. Using measured data, the model was calibrated and applied to simulate soil and stream chemistry at all study sites. Model hindcasts indicate that historically stream water chemistry in the Adirondacks was variable, but inherently sensitive to acid deposition. The median model-simulated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of the streams was projected to be 55 μeq L-1 before the advent of anthropogenic acid deposition (~1850), decreasing to minimum values of 10 μeq L-1 around the year 2000. The median simulated ANC increased to 13 μeq L-1 by 2015 in response to decreases in acid deposition that have occurred over recent decades. Model projections suggest that simultaneous decreases in sulfate, nitrate and ammonium deposition are more effective in restoring stream ANC than individual decreases in sulfur or nitrogen deposition. However, the increases in stream ANC per unit equivalent decrease in S deposition is greater compared to decreases in N deposition. Using empirical algorithms, fish community density and biomass are projected to increase under several deposition-control scenarios that coincide with increases in stream ANC. Model projections suggest that even under the most aggressive deposition-reduction scenarios, stream chemistry and fisheries will not fully recover from historical acidification by 2200.

Acidic atmospheric deposition has adversely affected aquatic ecosystems globally. As emissions and deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) have declined in recent decades across North America and Europe, ecosystem recovery is evident in many surface waters. However, persistent chronic and episodic acidification remain important concerns in vulnerable regions. We evaluated acidification in 269 headwater streams during 2010-2012 along the Appalachian Trail (AT) that transits several ecoregions and is located downwind of high levels of S and N emission sources. Discharge was estimated by matching sampled streams to those of a nearby gaged stream and assuming equivalent daily mean flow percentiles. Charge balance acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) values were adjusted to the 15th (Q15) and 85th flow percentiles (Q85) by applying the ANC/discharge slope among sample pairs collected at each stream. A site-based approach was applied to streams sampled twice or more and a second regression-based approach to streams sampled once to estimate episodic acidification magnitudes as the ANC difference from Q15 to Q85. Streams with ANC <0 mu eq/L doubled from 16% to 32% as discharge increased from Q15 to Q85 according to the site-based approach. The proportion of streams with ANC <0 mu eq/L at low flow and high flow decreased from north to south. Base cation dilution explained the greatest amount of episodic acidification among streams and variation in sulfate (SO42-) concentrations was a secondary explanatory variable. Episodic SO42- patterns varied geographically with dilution dominant in northern streams underlain by soils developed in glacial sediment and increased concentrations dominant in southern streams with older, highly weathered soils. Episodic acidification increased as low-flow ANC increased, exceeding 90 mu eq/L in 25% of streams. Episodic increases in ANC were the dominant pattern in streams with low-flow ANC values <30 mu eq/L. Chronic and episodic acidification remain an ecological concern among AT streams. The approach developed here could be applied to estimate the magnitude and extent of chronic and episodic acidification in other regions recovering from decreasing levels of atmospheric S and N deposition.

AimsA century of atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen has acidified soils and undermined the health and recruitment of foundational tree species in the northeastern US. However, effects of acidic deposition on the forest understory plant communities of this region are poorly documented. We investigated how forest understory plant species composition and richness varied across gradients of acidic deposition and soil acidity in the Adirondack Mountains of New York State.MethodsWe surveyed understory vegetation and soils in hardwood forests on 20 small watersheds and built models of community composition and richness as functions of soil chemistry, nitrogen and sulfur deposition, and other environmental variables.ResultsCommunity composition varied significantly with gradients of acidic deposition, soil acidity, and base cation availability (63% variance explained). Several species increased with soil acidity while others decreased. Understory plant richness decreased significantly with increasing soil acidity (r=0.60). The best multivariate regression model to predict richness (p<0.001, adjusted-R-2=0.60) reflected positive effects of pH and carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N).ConclusionsThe relationship we found between understory plant communities and a soil-chemical gradient, suggests that soil acidification can reduce diversity and alter the composition of these communities in northern hardwood forests exposed to acidic deposition.

Ecological effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition on two hardwood forest sites in the eastern United States were simulated in the context of a changing climate using the dynamic coupled biogeochemical/ecological model chain ForSAFE-Veg. The sites are a mixed oak forest in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia (Piney River) and a mixed oak-sugar maple forest in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee (Cosby Creek). The sites have received relatively high levels of both S and N deposition and the climate has warmed over the past half century or longer. The model was used to evaluate the composition of the understory plant communities, the alignment between plant species niche preferences and ambient conditions, and estimate changes in relative species abundances as reflected by plant cover under various scenarios of future atmospheric N and S deposition and climate change. The main driver of ecological effects was soil solution N concentration. Results of this research suggested that future climate change might compromise the capacity for the forests to sustain habitat suitability. However, vegetation results should be considered preliminary until further model validation can be performed. With expected future climate change, preliminary estimates suggest that sustained future N deposition above 7.4 and 5.0 kg N/ha/yr is expected to decrease contemporary habitat suitability for indicator plant species located at Piney River and Cosby Creek, respectively.

Plant phenology studies rarely consider controlling factors other than air temperature. We evaluate here the potential significance of physical and chemical properties of soil (edaphic factors) as additional important controls on phenology. More specifically, we investigate causal connections between satellite-observed green-up dates of small forest watersheds and soil properties in the Adirondack Mountains of New York, USA. Contrary to the findings of previous studies, where edaphic controls of spring phenology were found to be marginal, our analyses show that at least three factors manifest themselves as significant controls of seasonal patterns of variation in vegetated land surfaces observed from remote sensing: (1) thickness of the forest floor, (2) concentration of exchangeable soil potassium, and (3) soil acidity. For example, a thick forest floor appears to delay the onset of green-up. Watersheds with elevated concentrations of potassium are associated with early surface greening. We also found that trees growing in strongly acidified watersheds demonstrate delayed green-up dates. Overall, our work demonstrates that, at the scale of small forest watersheds, edaphic factors can explain a significant percentage of the observed spatial variation in land surface phenology that is comparable to the percentage that can be explained by climatic and landscape factors. We conclude that physical and chemical properties of forest soil play important roles in forest ecosystems as modulators of climatic drivers controlling the rate of spring soil warming and the transition of trees out of winter dormancy. Plain Language Summary Plant phenology studies usually focus on air temperature. We investigated the potential significance of soil (edaphic) properties as additional important controls on phenology using satellite-observed green-up dates of small forested watersheds and measured soil properties in the Adirondack Mountains of New York, USA. Three factors manifest themselves as significant controls of seasonal patterns of variation in vegetated land surfaces observed from remote sensing: (1) thickness of the forest floor, (2) concentration of exchangeable soil potassium, and (3) soil acidity. A thick forest floor and acidified conditions appear to delay the onset of green-up, whereas watersheds with elevated concentrations of potassium are associated with early surface greening. Our work demonstrates that edaphic factors can explain a significant percentage of the observed spatial variation in land surface phenology and timing of forest green-up that is comparable to the percentage that can be explained by climatic and landscape factors. Further research on how climate change is affecting the start of the growing season will need to incorporate ecosystem factors such as these to understand the response of forests to climate trends.

Changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition caused pronounced changes in soil conditions and habitat suitability for many plant species over the latter half of the previous century. Such changes are expected to continue in the future with anticipated further changing air temperature and precipitation that will likely influence the effects of N deposition. To investigate the potential long-term impacts of atmospheric N deposition on hardwood forest ecosystems in the eastern United States in the context of climate change, application of the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community model VSD+PROPS was explored at three sites in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee. This represents the first application of VSD+PROPS to forest ecosystems in the United States. Climate change and elevated (above mid-19th century) N deposition were simulated to be important factors for determining habitat suitability. Although simulation results suggested that the suitability of these forests to support the continued presence of their characteristic understory plant species might decline by the year 2100, low data availability for building vegetation response models with PROPS resulted in uncertain results at the extremes of simulated N deposition. Future PROPS model development in the United States should focus on inclusion of additional foundational data or alternate candidate predictor variables to reduce these uncertainties.

Sugar maple, an abundant and highly valued tree species in eastern North America, has experienced decline from soil calcium (Ca) depletion by acidic deposition, while beech, which often coexists with sugar maple, has been afflicted with beech bark disease (BBD) over the same period. To investigate how variations in soil base saturation combine with effects of BBD in influencing stand composition and structure, measurements of soils, canopy, subcanopy, and seedlings were taken in 21 watersheds in the Adirondack region of NY (USA), where sugar maple and beech were the predominant canopy species and base saturation of the upper B horizon ranged from 4.4 to 67%. The base saturation value corresponding to the threshold for Al mobilization (16.8%) helped to define the species composition of canopy trees and seedlings. Canopy vigor and diameter at breast height (DBH) were positively correlated (P < 0.05) with base saturation for sugar maple, but unrelated for beech. However, beech occupied lower canopy positions than sugar maple, and as base saturation increased, the average canopy position of beech decreased relative to sugar maple (P < 0.10). In low-base saturation soils, soil-Ca depletion and BBD may have created opportunities for gap-exploiting species such as red maple and black cherry, whereas in high-base saturation soils, sugar maple dominated the canopy. Where soils were beginning to recover from acidic deposition effects, sugar maple DBH and basal area increased progressively from 2000 to 2015, whereas for beech, average DBH did not change and basal area did not increase after 2010.