This study examined the interrater reliability and predictive validity of Conclusory Opinions made using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide-Version 3 (SARA-V3). Using a pseudo-prospective design, researchers coded SARA-V3 assessments from the files of 125 Australian males with prior intimate partner violence (IPV) and evaluated validity using IPV charges over 4 years. While total scores demonstrated excellent interrater reliability (ICC = .94), Conclusory Opinions showed variable reliability (ICC = .54-.92). Conclusory Opinions had limited ability to discriminate between those with and without further police-recorded IPV (AUC = .51-.61). Sensitivity was consistently low (16.67%-33.33%), indicating most of those with further IPV were not identified as high Case Priority. Victim Vulnerability factors could not be rated due to limited file information, representing a significant limitation. These findings suggest Conclusory Opinions informed by Nature of IPV and Perpetrator risk factors may have limited predictive utility, raising questions about practical advantages over its predecessor.

Accurate assessment of the risk of fatal family or intimate partner violence (FIPV), particularly of intimate partner homicide (IPH), has long been a clinical and research goal. Although several risk assessment measures have been developed to assist in this task, limited validation methodologies in past research mean that it remains unclear whether fatal FIPV can be accurately predicted. This study aimed to address this research gap using a prospective methodology. Prediction of lethal and near lethal FIPV was tested in a full population cohort (n = 38,454) of unique perpetrator and victim dyads recorded by police over 7 months between September 2019 and March 2020 in Victoria, Australia. The predictive validity of an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) previously validated for general FIPV risk and of 12 widely recognized risk factors for male-to-female IPH were assessed over a 12-month follow-up period. Neither the ARAI, individual IPH risk factors, nor a model developed from the IPH risk factors, accurately predicted which dyads subsequently came to police attention for lethal or near lethal FIPV. All methods misclassified many thousands of dyads as high risk who did not have subsequently reported lethal/near lethal FIPV. These findings were attributable to both the low base rate of lethal/near lethal FIPV during the follow-up period and the commonality of widely recognized risk markers for male-to-female IPH in FIPV cases reported to police. When evaluated using a prospective design, existing assessments of FIPV homicide risk are likely to overestimate the risk of homicide in a very substantial number of cases. This suggests that a public health approach to the prevention of FIPV homicide may be of greater utility than trying to accurately identify cases at high risk of a low base rate event such as homicide.

This study describes the first 352 cases accepted by the Victorian Fixated Threat Assessment Centre (VFTAC), a specialist multi-agency policing and forensic mental health unit established in 2018. VFTAC responds to both fixated individuals whose contact with public figures causes concern and individuals referred from other sources due to concern about their potential for lone actor grievance-fuelled violence (LAGFV). The aim of the study was to examine differences between these groups and whether expanding the remit of VFTAC to other LAGFV is warranted. Public figure and other LAGFV cases differed as hypothesised, with the latter being younger, having more significant histories of violence, more often presenting with extremist ideologies, and causing greater concern about future violence. These factors in turn were associated with more protracted episodes of care. VFTAC involvement reduced concern about LAGFV in almost all cases, indicating a positive effect of this multiagency response to grievance-fuelled violence.

The Stalking Risk Profile (SRP) is a structured professional judgment guideline to help practitioners evaluate and respond to risks associated with stalking. Using a sample of 217 Australian adults referred to a community forensic mental health service, this study examined the predictive validity of SRP risk judgments made by assessing clinicians. Discrimination, classification, and prediction statistics were examined at 12-month intervals over a 4-year follow-up using police charges for stalking-related offending. Total scores were positively related to risk judgments. Moderate/high risk judgments generally showed good sensitivity, though weaker specificity. Risk judgments about stalking violence and recurrent stalking of the same victim showed moderate to strong discrimination and predictive benefits over the base rate of reoffending, with minor improvements over time. Judgments about stalking different victims or persistent stalking of the same victim were less effective, possibly due to methodological limitations of the prospective study design.

Stalking presents unique challenges for risk assessment and management. This study examined long-term stalking recidivism among individuals assessed for stalking behavior between 2002 and 2013 in Victoria, Australia. We investigated (1) base rates of stalking recidivism, (2) individual factors associated with reoffending, (3) timing of recidivism, (4) differences in timing based on victim identity, and (5) how risk factors related to outcomes over time. The average follow-up was 11.1 years (range = 7-16), 27.6% reoffended with a stalking-related charge, 11.3% against the same victim as the original stalking case, and 17.2% against a different victim. Chi-square and survival analyses examined predictors and patterns of reoffending. Preoccupation with the victim at time of assessment was significantly associated with stalking the same victim, and in more than half of cases occurred within two years. Individuals with problematic anger were more likely to stalk a different person. Consideration of individual psychological risk factors and victim type may be valuable in assessment and intervention, particularly factors indicating elevated risk for more rapid recidivism. While findings are correlational, they indicate intense preoccupation and problems with anger may be meaningful targets for psychological treatment for those who stalk.

High prevalence and incidence rates of family violence (FV) amongst South Asian communities have been reported internationally. Despite the recognition that culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities within Australia have additional risk factors associated with experiencing FV, Australia has limited research exploring FV amongst one of its fastest growing CALD populations, South Asians. With the Hindi-speaking community accounting for the single largest group within the South Asian community in Australia, this study aimed to address this gap. The 2016 Personal Safety Survey (PSS) was used to explore the prevalence rate and risk factors associated with FV victimisation for Hindi-speaking Australian women and compare this with third-generation English-speaking Australian women. The findings indicated that Hindi-speaking Australian women reported a lower prevalence rate of FV yet had different risk factors associated with their risk of victimisation. Specifically, Hindi-speaking females had only experience-based risk factors (e.g., child abuse) related to their victimisation of FV, whilst third-generation English-speaking females had both experience and situational-based risk factors (e.g., unemployment). These findings are unlikely to be representative of all Hindi-speaking Australians nor of South Asian Australians more broadly, as the survey design may have been biased towards a particular subset of Hindi-speaking Australians who could speak English fluently. Recommendations on how to address such limitations in future studies are discussed.

Numerous qualitative studies report South Asian migrants use police as a last resort for family violence (FV), however no quantitative evidence exists in Australia. This study examines police-reported FV recorded by Victorian police between September 2019 and February 2020 (N = 32,450) and compares reports made by South Asian-born (SAB) Australians to Australian-born (AB) Australians. Demographics, incidence and revictimisation rates, severity, frequency of risk and vulnerability factors (e.g. isolation & visa dependency) reported by the two groups were examined. More females were affected family members (AFMs) for both groups; however, SAB males were more likely to report non-partner FV. SAB AFMs reported a lower incidence rate and occurrence of revictimisation than AB AFMs. There were no significant differences in the level of severity (based on charges at time of incident); however, significantly higher number of risk factors were present for SABs reporting intimate partner violence. Mixed results emerged in the frequency of factors.

PURPOSE:Females experiencing family violence as victims are at increased risk of emergency department mental health presentations. However, few studies have examined this association for males and perpetrators. We examined whether family violence reports to police were associated with contemporaneous mental health presentations and whether this differed for males and females and those that the police identified as perpetrators and victims. METHOD:Victoria Police provided lifetime data on family violence reports for 2,990 individuals who were the subject of family violence reports as either perpetrators or victims in 2016/17. This sample was linked to emergency mental health presentations from the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset. The association between monthly number of family violence reports and same-month emergency mental health presentations was examined over a one year period using multilevel logistic regression. RESULTS:The number of family violence reports as either victim or perpetrator in any month was associated with significantly increased odds of an emergency department mental health presentation in the same month. An interaction effect was found between the sex of the individual and the number of family violence reports as a perpetrator, such that female perpetrators were at higher risk of emergency department mental health presentations compared to male perpetrators. CONCLUSION:Police-reported family violence is associated with increased mental health emergency department presentations in the same month. The association is particularly strong for females who are identified as perpetrators. Strengthened collaboration between those responding to family violence and those responding to mental health crises is needed to help identify and address overlapping needs.

Police are increasingly tasked with identifying, responding to, and preventing intimate partner and family violence (IPFV). Several police organisations have adopted validated risk assessment instruments to assist frontline police officers to assess and manage the risk of future IPFV. This paper reports a population-based evaluation of the predictive and discriminative validity of an actuarial risk assessment instrument, the Victoria Police Screening Assessment for Family Violence Risk (VP-SAFvR), used by frontline police officers in Victoria, Australia. The entire population (n = 38,454) of family violence reports (FVRs) where police used the VP-SAFvR between 1 September 2019 and 31 March 2020 were tracked for 365 days to ascertain whether the VP-SAFvR was able to predict subsequent family violence and discriminate between cases with and without subsequent family violence. Calibration and survival analysis was performed on the instrument. Approximately 33

Ageing has a protective impact on recidivism risk, including for those who offend sexually (Ambroziak, G., Kahn, R. E., Mundt, J. C., Keiser, K. L., & Thornton, D. (2020). Are civilly detained and committed sexually violent persons released after age 60 low risk? Criminal Justice and Behavior, 48(7), 981-998; Doren, D. M. (2006). What do we know about the effect of aging on recidivism risk for sexual offenders? Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18; Harris, G. T., & Rice, M. E. (2007). Adjusting actuarial violence risk assessments based on aging or the passage of time. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34(3), 297-313). Recent research of the Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP) suggests increased age may affect the validity of this guideline, with good predictive performance in samples of men mostly aged under 50 (Davis, M. R., Woods, M., Raymond, B., Ogloff, J. R. P., & McEwan, T. E. (in submission). Does it work? Convergent and predictive validity of the Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP) in an Australian Community Forensic Mental Health Setting. Manuscript submitted for publication; Vargen, L. M., Jackson, K. J., & Hart, S. D. (2020). Interrater reliability, concurrent validity, and predictive validity of the Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol. Law and Human Behavior, 44(1), 37-50), but poor predictive performance in a sample aged over 50 (Raymond, B. C., Davis, M. R., Ogloff, J. R. P., & McEwan, T. E. (in submission). Convergent and predictive validity of the sexual violence risk-20 and risk for sexual violence protocol with older sexual offenders. Manuscript submitted for publication). This study investigated possible reasons for these contrasting results by investigating age-related differences in risk factor endorsement and the relationships between risk factors. RSVP risk factors in two samples of men with prior sexual offending, older adults aged between 50 and 78 (n = 95) and adults aged between 18 and 46 (n = 139). Few differences were identified in risk factor endorsement or the relationship between risk factors. The younger adult sample were observed to have more risk factors present.PRACTICE IMPACT STATEMENTThis research adds to the literature regarding older men who offend sexually. It is anticipated that further research into factors that are associated with this age group, may encourage future research of gerontological literature in a forensic arena. Until more reliable evidence is available, the current risk assessment tools may require a level of caution when used with older men.

International research suggests that migrants face additional challenges that may heighten their risk of experiencing family violence (FV). South Asians are one of Australia’s fastest growing immigrant populations—yet relatively little is known about their experiences of FV. This study sought to address this research gap by ascertaining what could be gleaned about FV experiences of Australian South Asians the Australian Bureau of Statistic’s 2016 Personal Safety Survey (PSS). While prior versions of the PSS have been deemed non-representative of minority cultural groups, it remains the largest FV victimisation dataset in Australia, and undoubtedly would include information about South Asian Australians. Specifically this study examined the lifetime prevalence and 10-year incidence of most recent FV among South Asian-born (SAB) immigrants and compared these figures to Australian-born (AB) individuals. SAB Australians included in the PSS reported lower lifetime prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV) and a lower 10-year incidence of at least one type of FV (IPV and/or non-partner FV) than AB Australians. The sampling approach of the PSS was shown to have substantial methodological limitations that reduced the utility of these findings. Specifically, the sampling of South Asian immigrants in Australia was not demographically representative nor was the sample size sufficient for meaningful analysis. The implications of these limitations and recommendations to address them in future population-level FV surveys are explored.

This paper presents a prospective evaluation of the predictive validity of three risk assessment instruments in a sample of Australian women identified by police as intimate partner abuse (IPA) perpetrators. Using a subsample from Spivak et al. (2020), 410 female IPA perpetrators were screened using the Victoria Police Screening Assessment for Family Violence Risk (VP-SAFvR) and evaluated alongside two samples of 60 and 229 female IPA perpetrators assessed using the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) and a modified version of the Lethality Screen respectively. Of the three instruments, the VP-SAFvR possessed indicators of effective discrimination (i.e. sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve) and predictive validity (i.e. positive predictive value, negative predictive value) on general IPA recidivism and its intended outcome of family or intimate partner abuse. The B-SAFER risk judgement similarly predicted its intended outcome of physical IPA recidivism, with notable indicators of discrimination and predictive validity. The results of the Modified Lethality Screen were conversely mixed on measures of discrimination and prediction for its intended outcome of severe IPA. The current findings suggest that these instruments function consistently for women and men who are identified by police as perpetrating family or intimate partner abuse.

Structured professional judgement (SPJ) guidelines for assessing risk of sexual offending have existed for more than two decades, yet the literature investigating the validity of these tools remains relatively limited. Recent research has shown that actuarial sexual offending risk assessment tools should be adjusted to reflect reduced risk as offenders age (Helmus et al., 2012), leading to questions about the validity of extant SPJ guidelines for older people who sexually offend. The current study investigated the reliability and predictive validity of the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20) and the Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP) with a sample of 95 Australian individuals aged 50 years or over who had sexually offended. Sixteen (16.84%) participants sexually recidivated over a mean follow-up period of 9.07 years. Contrary to results with younger offenders, structured judgements using the SVR-20 or RSVP did not significantly differentiate recidivists from non-recidivists in this sample (AUC = .57). However, the total scores for both instruments were predictive at particular time periods. Certain risk factors were potentially important and accounted for unique variance that was not accounted for by actuarial instruments. The implications and limitations of this study are discussed, as well as recommendations for future research and practice.

Background Family violence is a leading social determinant of mental ill-health but its link to mental health-related emergency department presentations is poorly understood. Existing research has largely used retrospective designs with a focus on victimisation, typically among women. We examined whether police-reported family violence victimisation and perpetration were prospectively associated with mental health emergency department presentations in women and men. We also identified family violence risk and vulnerability characteristics associated with such presentations. Methods Demographics, prior police involvement, and individual and relationship vulnerabilities were provided by Victoria Police for 1520 affected family members (i.e., primary victims) and 1470 respondents (i.e., persons alleged to have perpetrated family violence) from family violence reports in 2016–17. Emergency mental health presentations 22–30 months post-family-violence report were determined through linkage with the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset and compared to statewide presentations. Results Emergency mental health presentations during follow-up were identified in 14.3% of the family violence sample, with 1.9% presenting for self-harm. Mental health presentation rates per 1,000 people were markedly higher among affected family members and respondents of both sexes and all ages than in the general population, except for male affected family members aged 45 + . Adjusting for age and sex, the mental health presentation rate was 6 and 11 times higher among affected family members and respondents, respectively, than in the general population. Individual vulnerabilities were more closely related to risk of emergency mental health presentations than relationship characteristics. Conclusions Police-recorded family violence is associated with increased mental health-related emergency department presentations over the short-to-medium term. Strengthened cross-sector collaboration is needed to identify, address, and refer individuals with overlapping family violence and mental health needs and to improve victims’ and perpetrators’ access to community mental health and related services. This should help prevent individuals from reaching a crisis point in their mental health.

Stalking-precipitated homicide is a recognized phenomenon with devastating consequences, yet there is no literature identifying its population-level prevalence. This study examined all homicide-related deaths between 1997 and 2015 ( n = 855) that were reported by a court in the Australian state of Victoria. Three aims were addressed: (1) to identify how often homicide is precipitated by stalking, (2) to describe characteristics of cases of stalking-precipitated homicide and explore differences between cases involving ex-partners and other relationships, and (3) to investigate the association between stalking and coercive control in homicide cases involving a current or former partner. Data were extracted from three state- and national-level databases. Stalking was clearly present in 6.41% ( n = 54) of all homicide-related deaths and 63.41% ( n = 26) of Ex-Partner homicides. Both ex-partner and other homicide offenders were mostly male (93.10%/96.15%), and nearly half (44.83%/46.15%) were born outside Australia. Evidence of planning, a trigger event, and last-resort thinking were found in most stalking precipitated homicides (67.31%–88.37%). Evidence of previous coercive control was present in 30.77% ( n = 8) of ex-partner stalking-precipitated homicides compared to 12.50% ( n = 2) ex-partner homicides without stalking and 21.93% ( n = 25) of current partner homicides.

This study investigated whether the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) is effective in the assessment of risk in male intimate partner violence (IPV) cases that do not meet the inclusion criteria used in the ODARA's development sample (presence of prior assault or threat by perpetrator and previous cohabitation with the victim). Australian police scored the ODARA in 275 IPV cases without one or both of these characteristics, with results contrasted to performance in 200 cases meeting both inclusion criteria. The ODARA demonstrated poor discriminant effect over time for both assault and abuse recurrence in the former group (concordance index [c-index] = 0.56 and c-index = 0.57, respectively), but performed well in the latter group (c-index = 0.69 and c-index = 0.69). Although subject to some significant methodological limitations and requiring replication, these findings suggest the ODARA may not provide accurate risk-based classification if applied to cases missing the inclusion criteria.

Police-reported incidents of youth family violence have been increasing in frequency yet limited research exists about how best to risk assess this cohort. The present study examined the validity of the Victoria Police Screening Assessment for Family Violence Risk (VP-SAFvR) for Australian youth aged 10 to 24 years (n = 4,999) reported to police for using family violence. The 6-month base rate of family violence recidivism was 24.24% for same-dyad recidivism and 35.31% for any-dyad recidivism. The VP-SAFvR demonstrated moderate discriminative validity (area under the curve [AUC] = .65) for the total sample and comparable discriminative validity across age (AUCs = .64-.67), gender (AUCs = .63-.65), and relationship (i.e., child-to-parent abuse, sibling abuse, intimate partner abuse; AUCs = .62-.65). Predictive validity was adequate at a threshold score of four for 10- to 24-year olds and most subgroups. Results demonstrate the utility of a structured risk triage tool for youth family violence.

EDITORIAL article Front. Psychol., 11 May 2023Sec. Forensic and Legal Psychology Volume 14 - 2023 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1177705