Background/Objectives: Background: The International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified arsenic as a group 1 carcinogen of the lung, skin and bladder. Arsenic has been implicated in the pathogenesis of breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers; however, existing evidence is limited and inconsistent. Prospective studies, particularly those employing blood-based quantification of arsenic, remain scarce. This study aimed to address this gap by investigating the association between serum arsenic levels and breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Heidelberg case-cohort. Methods: Serum arsenic levels were measured using inductively coupled mass spectrometry in 5360 participants aged 35-65 years, recruited between 1994 and 1998. Over a median follow-up of 18 years (IQR: 17-19), 685 incident cases of breast, 597 of prostate, and 284 of colorectal cancer occurred. Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazards regression models with age as the underlying time scale were used to estimate hazard ratios and confidence intervals for associations between serum arsenic levels and cancer risk. Results: No statistically significant association was found between serum arsenic levels and breast cancer, either overall with HR 1.04 (95% Cl: 0.96-1.35) or in subgroups based on pre- and post-menopausal status, estrogen/progesterone status, or BMI. Similarly, serum arsenic levels were not statistically associated with prostate cancer of HR 0.91 (95% Cl: 0.72-1.14). In contrast, a significant association with colon cancer emerged in the second quartile with HR 0.12 (95% Cl: 0.02-0.61) and third quartile with HR 0.19 (95% Cl: 0.05-0.73) compared to the first quartile but not in rectal cancer. Conclusions: More comparative studies on the different arsenic media and arsenic speciation should be conducted to determine the impact of arsenic on these cancers.

INTRODUCTION:Dietary intake of (poly)phenols has been linked to reduced adiposity and body weight (BW) in several epidemiological studies. However, epidemiological evidence on (poly)phenol biomarkers, particularly plasma concentrations, is scarce. We aimed to investigate the associations between plasma (poly)phenols and prospective BW change in participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.METHODS:This study included 761 participants with data on BW at baseline and after 5 years of follow-up. Plasma concentrations of 36 (poly)phenols were measured at baseline using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Associations were assessed through general linear mixed models and multinomial logistic regression models, using change in BW as a continuous or as a categorical variable (BW loss, maintenance, gain), respectively. Plasma (poly)phenols were assessed as log2-transformed continuous variables. The false discovery rate (FDR) was used to control for multiple comparisons.RESULTS:Doubling plasma (poly)phenol concentrations showed a borderline trend towards a positive association with BW loss. Plasma vanillic acid showed the strongest association (-0.53 kg/5 years; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.99, -0.07). Similar results were observed for plasma naringenin comparing BW loss versus BW maintenance (odds ratio: 1.1; 95% CI: 1.0, 1.2). These results did not remain significant after FDR correction.CONCLUSION:Higher concentrations of plasma (poly)phenols suggested a tendency towards 5-year BW maintenance or loss. While certain associations seemed promising, they did not withstand FDR correction, indicating the need for caution in interpreting these results. Further studies using (poly)phenol biomarkers are needed to confirm these suggestive protective trends.

Cardiac Troponin I (cTnI) could be used to identify individuals at elevated risk of cardiac death in lung cancer (LC) screening settings. In a population-based, randomized LC screening trial in Germany (“LUSI” study) serum cTnI was measured by high-sensitivity assay in blood samples collected at baseline, and categorized into unquantifiable/low (< 6 ng/L), intermediate (≥ 6–15 ng/L), and elevated (≥ 16 ng/L). Cox proportional-hazard models were used to estimate risk of all-cause and cardiac mortality with cTnI levels. After exclusion criteria, 3653 participants were included for our analyses, of which 82.4% had low, 12.8% intermediate and 4.8% elevated cTnI, respectively. Over a median follow up of 11.87 years a total of 439 deaths occurred, including 67 caused by cardiac events. Within the first 5 years after cTnI measurement, intermediate or elevated cTnI levels showed approximately 1.7 (HR = 1.69 [95% CI 0.57–5.02) and 4.7-fold (HR = 4.66 [1.73–12.50]) increases in risk of cardiac death relative to individuals with unquantifiable/low cTnI, independently of age, sex, smoking and other risk factors. Within this time interval, a risk model based on age, sex, BMI, smoking history and cTnI showed a combined area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 73.6 (58.1–87.3), as compared to 70.4 (53.3–83.5) for a model without cTnI. Over the time interval of > 5–10 years after blood donation, the relative risk associations with cTnI and were weaker. cTnI showed no association with mortality from any other (non-cardiac) cause. Our findings show that cTnI may be of use for identifying individuals at elevated risk specifically of short-term cardiac mortality in the context of LC screening.

Despite increasing evidence that cholesterol precursors and oxysterols, oxidized cholesterol metabolites, play a role in numerous pathological processes and diseases including breast cancer, little is known about correlates of these sterols in women with breast cancer. In this study, 2282 women with breast cancer and blood draw post diagnosis were included and cross-sectional associations between circulating levels of 15 sterols/oxysterols and (a) lifestyle, anthropometric, reproductive characteristics, (b) comorbidities and medication use, and (c) breast cancer tumor and treatment characteristics were calculated using generalized linear models. Obesity was strongly associated with circulating levels of 7-dehydrocholesterol (DC) (body mass index ≥ 30 vs. 18.5–24.9 kg/m2: 51.7% difference) and 7-ketocholesterol (KC) (40.0% difference). After adjustment for BMI, comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease were associated with higher levels of 7-DC (26.1% difference) and lower levels of desmosterol (− 16.4% difference). Breast cancer tumor characteristics including hormone receptor status, tumor stage, and endocrine therapy were associated with lanosterol, 24-DHLan, 7b-HC, and THC (e.g., THC; tumor stage IIIa vs. I: 36.9% difference). Weaker associations were observed for lifestyle characteristics and for any of the other oxysterols. The findings of this study suggest that cholesterol precursors are strongly associated with metabolic factors, while oxysterols are associated with breast cancer tumor characteristics, warranting further investigation into the role of cholesterol precursors and oxysterols in women with breast cancer and other populations.

C-statistics by tumor histology for variable lag-times since blood donation

Background:Lung cancer (LC) screening can be optimized using individuals' estimated risks of having a detectable lung tumor, as well as of mortality risk by competing causes, to guide decisions on screening eligibility, ideal screening intervals and stopping ages. Besides age, sex and smoking history, blood-based biomarkers may be used to improve the assessment of LC risk and risk of mortality by competing causes.Methods:In the German randomized Lung Screening Intervention Trial (LUSI), we measured growth/differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic protein (NT-proBNP), in blood serum samples collected at start of the trial. Participants in the computed tomography (CT)-screening arm also had a pulmonary function test. Regression models were used to examine these markers as predictors for impaired lung function, LC risk and mortality due to LC or other causes, independently of age, sex and smoking history.Results:Our models showed increases in LC risk among participants with elevated serum levels of GDF-15 [odds ratio (OR)Q4-Q1 =2.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49-4.26], IL-6 [ORQ4-Q1 =2.36 (1.43-4.00)] and CRP [ORQ4-Q1 =1.81 (1.08-2.75)]. Likewise, proportional hazards models showed increased risks for LC-related mortality, hazard ratio (HR)Q4-Q1 of 4.63 (95% CI: 2.13-10.07) for GDF-15, 3.56 (1.72-7.37) for IL-6 and 2.34 (1.24-4.39) for CRP. All four markers were associated with increased risk of mortality by causes other than LC, with strongest associations for GDF-15 [HRQ4-Q1 =3.04 (2.09-4.43)] and IL-6 [HRQ4-Q1 =2.98 (2.08-4.28)]. Significant associations were also observed between IL-6, CRP, GDF-15 and impaired pulmonary function [chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm)]. Multi-marker models identified GDF-15 and IL-6 as joint risk predictors for risk of LC diagnosis, without further discrimination by CRP or NT-proBNP. A model based on age, sex, smoking-related variables, GFD-15 and IL-6 provided moderately strong discrimination for prediction of LC diagnoses within 9 years after blood sampling [area under the curve (AUC) =74.3% (57.3-90.2%)], compared to 67.0% (49.3-84.8%) for a model without biomarkers. For mortality by competing causes, a model including biomarkers resulted in an AUC of 76.2% (66.6-85.3%)], compared to 70.0% (60.9-77.9%) a model including age, sex and smoking variables.Conclusions:Serum GDF-15 and IL-6 may be useful indicators for estimating risks for LC and competing mortality among long-term smokers participating in LC screening, to optimize LC screening strategies.

Abstract Objectives Oxysterols, a family of oxidized cholesterol derivates, are of increasing interest due to their role in cancer development and progression. Some oxysterols are estrogen receptor modulators and thus of particular interest in breast cancer research. In human studies, two forms of circulating oxysterols are commonly evaluated: “free” (unesterified) and “total” (esterified and unesterified). However, associations between free and total oxysterols are not well established. We addressed this knowledge gap in a pilot study by evaluating correlations between the free and the total form of each of the circulating oxysterols (free vs. total), and pairwise associations within the panel of total oxysterols (total vs. total) and the panel of free oxysterols (free vs. free). Methods Concentrations of oxysterols and other non-cholesterol sterols were quantified in blood samples of 27 breast cancer patients from the MARIE breast cancer patient cohort using liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. We used Spearman rank correlations to assess associations. Overall, 12 oxysterols (including 27-hydroxycholesterol (HC), 25-HC, 24S-HC, 7a-HC, 5a6a-epoxycholesterol) and five sterols (including lanosterol and desmosterol) were analyzed. Results Strong correlations (r≥0.82) were observed for seven circulating free and total oxysterols/sterols. The free and total form of 27-HC (r=0.63), 25-HC (r=0.54), and two more oxysterols were weaker correlated. Correlation patterns in the panel of total oxysterols/sterols and the panel of free oxysterols/sterols were similar. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that concentrations of most free and total oxysterols/sterols are strongly correlated. We provide further insight into the interrelationships between oxysterols in breast cancer patients.

Background 27-hydroxycholesterol (HC) and 25-HC were identified as endogenous selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) and estrogen receptor (ER) modulators, respectively. They are hypothesized to play a role in multiple physiologic processes and pathologies, including breast cancer development and progression. Methods We evaluated circulating 27-HC and 25-HC, and outcomes following a breast cancer diagnosis in 2282 women from the MARIE study over median follow-up of 11.6 years. 27-HC and 25-HC were quantified by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals [CI] using multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards regression. Results We observed no associations between 27-HC and breast cancer prognosis overall. Associations between 27-HC and survival differed by circulating estradiol concentrations and endocrine therapy, but not by hormone receptor status. Among women with estradiol levels below the median (0.08 nM), 27-HC was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR log2 = 1.80 [1.20–2.71]) and breast cancer-specific mortality (HR log2 = 1.95 [1.14-3.31]). No associations were observed in women with estradiol levels above the median. Higher 25-HC levels were associated with lower risk of recurrence (HR log2 = 0.87 [0.77-0.98]). Conclusion Associations between 27-HC and breast cancer prognosis varied by circulating estradiol levels and endocrine therapy. Less consistent results were observed for 25-HC.

Supplementary Table S1. Adjusteda geometric mean prolactin levels, ng/ml (95% CI) by established correlates at the time of blood donation. Supplementary Table S2. Adjusteda geometric mean prolactin levels, ng/ml (95% CI) depending on the anthropometric factors. Supplementary Table S3. Adjusteda geometric mean prolactin levels, ng/ml (95% CI) depending on the lifestyle factors.

Additional file 8. Supplementary Table 7. Genomic regions in which DNA methylation is significantly correlated to length of time to diagnosis (days) by Kendall rank correlation (FDR < 0.05).

Context The functional status of organs, such as the liver, involved in IGF-1 signaling pathways influences circulating levels of IGF-1 and hence its relationship to risk of chronic disease and mortality, yet this has received limited attention. Objective To examine the relationship between IGF-1 and risk of morbidity and mortality from cancer, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and all causes, accounting for liver function. Methods This study was a case-cohort design nested within EPIC-Heidelberg. IGF-1 was measured in 7461 stored serum samples collected from 1994 to 1998. Median follow-up for incident mortality events was 17.5 years. The case-cohort included a subcohort of 1810 men and 1890 women, in addition to 1668 incident cases of cancer (623 breast, 577 prostate, 202 lung, and 268 colorectal), and 1428 cases of CVD (707 myocardial infarctions and 723 strokes) and 2441 cases of death. Results Higher IGF-1 levels showed direct associations with risks of breast (1.25; 95% CI [1.06-1.47]) and prostate (1.31; [1.09-1.57]) cancers. Restricted cubic splines plots and models including IGF-1 as quintiles revealed a U-shaped relationship between the biomarker and mortality. Participants with the lowest and the highest levels of IGF-1 experienced higher hazards of mortality from cancer, CVD, and all causes. The U-shaped form of the relationship persisted but was attenuated in analyses including only participants without any indications of liver dysfunction. Conclusion This large population-based prospective study showed that both individuals with lowest and highest levels of circulating IGF-1 were at increased risk of deaths from cancer, CVD, and all causes. For individuals with low IGF-1, the excess risks of death were more pronounced among individuals with liver cancer and cirrhosis but were also present among individuals without elevated liver enzymes.

Supplementary Figure S1. Stacked bar charts of normalized immune cell counts across strata of baseline characteristics in the sub-cohort (n = 465).

Background and aims: NT-proBNP has been hypothesized as a possible explanation for the paradoxical association between adiponectin and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. We examined the heterogeneities by NT-proBNP, sex, BMI, smoking status, hypertension and dia-betes status in the association between adiponectin and cardiovascular disease risk and mortal-ity.Methods and results: We used a case-cohort design nested within the EPIC-Heidelberg cohort, including 1387 incident cases of myocardial infarction or stroke, 582 deaths from cardiovascular causes and 2352 total deaths. We estimated hazard ratios for the association between 1SD in-crease in log-transformed total adiponectin levels and cardiovascular disease risk, cardiovascular mortality and mortality using Prentice-weighted Cox-proportional hazard models and assessed heterogeneity of the associations across strata of covariates. Overall, adiponectin was signifi-cantly associated with all-cause mortality [HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03-1.16, p = 0.004]. The asso-ciation with cardiovascular mortality did not reach statistical significance [1.10 (0.99-1.37), p = 0.073]. There was significant heterogeneity by NT-proBNP in the association between total adiponectin and all-cause mortality (phet = 0.019) such that significant increase in hazards of mortality were restricted to participants in the highest tertile of NT-proBNP. Among these partic-ipants, adiponectin showed a dose-response relationship with total mortality such that; compared to participants in the lowest quintile, those in the third, fourth and fifth were at 1.22 (0.87-1.70), 1.50 (1.07-2.11), and 1.59 (1.15-2.21) higher hazards of mortality respectively. Conclusions: Significant association between adiponectin and mortality was only observed in the context of high NT-proBNP. Our findings provide further support for hypothesis that NT-proBNP may explain the adiponectin paradox.(c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Spearman coefficients of correlation between detection markers

CONTEXT:The relationship between dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) and mortality is of scientific and public health interest, yet it remains poorly understood.OBJECTIVE:We examined the association between DHEAS and mortality from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and all causes in middle-aged and older men and women.METHODS:DHEAS was measured in stored serum samples collected from 1994 to 1998 from a case-cohort nested within EPIC-Heidelberg, that included 7370 men (mean age = 55.0) and women (mean age = 52.4 years). Median follow-up for incident mortality events was 17.7 years. All deaths due to cancer (n = 1040), cardiovascular diseases (n = 598), and all causes (n = 2407) that occurred in EPIC-Heidelberg until end of 2014 were included.RESULTS:The association between DHEAS and mortality was nonlinear such that both participants in the lowest (Q1) and highest (Q5) sex- and 5-year age-group specific quintiles of DHEAS were at increased hazard ratios (HR) of mortality from cardiovascular [Q1: HR = 1.83 (95% CI: 1.33-2.51), Q5: 1.39 (1.00-1.94)], cancer [Q1: 1.27 (1.01-1.60), Q5: 1.27 (1.02-1.60)] and all causes [Q1: 1.51 (1.25-1.82), Q5: 1.31 (1.08-1.58)], compared with participants in Q3. In men and women with below-median DHEAS levels, doubling of DHEAS was associated with lower hazards of cardiovascular [0.87, (0.78-0.96)], cancer [0.90, (0.83-0.97)], and total mortality [0.89, (0.83-0.95)]. In contrast, a doubling in DHEAS among participants with above-median levels was associated with 1.20, (1.01-1.42), 1.28, (1.01-1.62), and 1.19 (1.03-1.37) higher hazards of mortality from cancer, cardiovascular, and all causes, respectively.CONCLUSION:In this large population-based study, DHEAS showed a J-shaped association with mortality. Both participants with lowest and highest levels experienced higher hazards of mortality from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and all causes.

Supplementary table 1. Correlations of sRANKL and the sRANKL/OPG ratio with select hormones among controls: EPIC cohort nested case-control study. Supplementary table 2. Distribution of covariates by quintiles of sRANKL. Supplementary table 3. Circulating concentrations of sRANKL and breast cancer risk by hormone-receptor subtype and menopausal status at blood collection. Supplementary table 4. The sRANKL/OPG ratio and breast cancer risk by hormone-receptor subtype and menopausal status at blood collection. Supplementary table 5. sRANKL additionally adjusted for continuous (log2) OPG and breast cancer risk by hormone-receptor subtype: EPIC nested case-control study. Supplementary table 6. sRANKL/OPG cross-classification based on median split of sRANKL and OPG and breast cancer risk by hormone-receptor subtype: EPIC nested case-control study.

Background: Early-onset pancreatic cancer (EOPC) represents 5-10% of all pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cases, and the etiology of this form is poorly understood. It is not clear if established PDAC risk factors have the same relevance for younger patients. This study aims to identify genetic and non-genetic risk factors specific to EOPC. Methods: A genome-wide association study was performed, analysing 912 EOPC cases and 10 222 controls, divided into discovery and replication phases. Furthermore, the associations between a polygenic risk score (PRS), smoking, alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes and PDAC risk were also assessed. Results: Six novel SNPs were associated with EOPC risk in the discovery phase, but not in the replication phase. The PRS, smoking, and diabetes affected EOPC risk. The OR comparing current smokers to never smokers was 2.92 (95% CI 1.69-5.04, P = 1.44 x 10 -4). For diabetes, the corresponding OR was 14.95 (95% CI 3.41-65.50, P = 3.58 x 10 -4). Conclusion: In conclusion, we did not identify novel genetic variants associated specifically with EOPC, and we found that established PDAC risk variants do not have a strong age-dependent effect. Furthermore, we add to the evidence pointing to the role of smoking and diabetes in EOPC. (c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ )

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is an aggressive cancer with a dismal prognosis. Early therapeutic interventions could improve patient outcomes. We aimed to identify a pattern of microRNAs (miRNAs) as potential early non-invasive markers of MPM. In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, we screened the whole miRNome in serum extracellular vesicles (EVs) of preclinical MPM cases. In a subgroup of 20 preclinical samples collected five years prior MPM diagnosis, we observed an upregulation of miR-11400 (fold change (FC) = 2.6, adjusted p-value = 0.01), miR-148a-3p (FC = 1.5, p-value = 0.001), and miR-409-3p (FC = 1.5, p-value = 0.04) relative to matched controls. The 3-miRNA panel showed a good classification capacity with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.81 (specificity = 0.75, sensitivity = 0.70). The diagnostic ability of the model was also evaluated in an independent retrospective cohort, yielding a higher predictive power (AUC = 0.86). A signature of EV miRNA can be detected up to five years before MPM; moreover, the identified miRNAs could provide functional insights into the molecular changes related to the late carcinogenic process, preceding MPM development.

Background Epigenetic alterations are a near-universal feature of human malignancy and have been detected in malignant cells as well as in easily accessible specimens such as blood and urine. These findings offer promising applications in cancer detection, subtyping, and treatment monitoring. However, much of the current evidence is based on findings in retrospective studies and may reflect epigenetic patterns that have already been influenced by the onset of the disease. Methods Studying breast cancer, we established genome-scale DNA methylation profiles of prospectively collected buffy coat samples ( n = 702) from a case–control study nested within the EPIC-Heidelberg cohort using reduced representation bisulphite sequencing (RRBS). Results We observed cancer-specific DNA methylation events in buffy coat samples. Increased DNA methylation in genomic regions associated with SURF6 and REXO1/CTB31O20.3 was linked to the length of time to diagnosis in the prospectively collected buffy coat DNA from individuals who subsequently developed breast cancer. Using machine learning methods, we piloted a DNA methylation-based classifier that predicted case–control status in a held-out validation set with 76.5% accuracy, in some cases up to 15 years before clinical diagnosis of the disease. Conclusions Taken together, our findings suggest a model of gradual accumulation of cancer-associated DNA methylation patterns in peripheral blood, which may be detected long before clinical manifestation of cancer. Such changes may provide useful markers for risk stratification and, ultimately, personalized cancer prevention.

ROC curves and C-statistics by tumor stage for diagnosis {less than or equal to}6 months, {less than or equal to}12 months, 1-2 years and 2-3 years after blood collection