The effects of natural hazards on road networks are evident and climate change will lead to more intense and more frequent impacts. This paper describes the approach and results of the resilience assessment and adaptation measure evaluation that has been conducted for the Dutch main highway network, by making use of the novel RA2CE modeling framework. The forthcoming results have been used to evaluate the desired level of resilience and to write an implementation agenda for adaptation to ensure a climate resilient highway network in 2050. The paper shows the necessity and challenges to link these resilience analyses to existing policy goal assessment frameworks as well as to asset management processes.

Quantifying natural hazard impacts on critical infrastructure networks inherently involves uncertainties which makes decision-making complex. Here, we present an approach on how to account for uncertainties in the resilience assessment and in adaptation planning. These uncertainties stem from the hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and end-user data, as well as economic valuation. The consequences of natural hazards on critical infrastructure networks such as road transport networks has been proven to be evident, illustrated by recent flooding events in Western Europe. Due to climate change, many of these hazards may intensify and occur more frequently. Over the past years this has invoked progress in research that has led to an increased understanding of the effects of natural hazards on infrastructure networks. Currently, most analyses focus on the estimation of exposure, vulnerability, and the estimation of (annual expected) damages to the infrastructure assets and socio-economic losses for the users. This is subsequently used to identify hotspots for potential measures. The next step is to include adaptation in maintenance and construction planning. However, this step is often not linked to the assessment preceding the hotspot selection and because uncertainties in the assessment are not quantified, this results in decision making under (very deep) uncertainty. Here, we show the results for the Dutch highway network where we used the RA2CE - Resilience Assessment and Adaptation for Critical infrastructurE - platform, which makes use of hazard maps, user defined vulnerability curves and traffic information to produce resilience and risk maps for the infrastructure networks (resulting annual expected damages for the road operator and socio-economic losses for the road user), but also offers the possibility to perform cost-benefit analyses for proposed adaptation measures. Based on the cost-effectiveness analysis of potential measures, economically viable intervention strategies can be defined, including spatially explicit cost-benefit ratios to demonstrate economic performance of the different strategies. However, cost-benefit assessments should acknowledge the uncertain future related to climate change and socio-economic developments. Therefore, we progress the current state of the art by adding an uncertainty analysis, which takes into account all identified uncertainties in the model chain. This is based on Monte Carlo analyses providing insight in the sensitivity to all uncertainties in the process stemming from hazard, exposure, vulnerability and traffic data, as well as from the changes to the future related to climate change and socio-economic developments. The results provide an increased insight in the robustness of the strategies, instead of only one (best guess) prediction. It further allows the user and decision-maker not only to look at the expected change, but also at the high-impact, low-likelihood events. Based on validation with decision-makers future research has been identified to include black swans (unknown-unknown events) in decision-making, but also progressing on the user level, by for example including equity.

Growing scientific evidence suggests that risks due to failure of critical infrastructures (CIs) will increase worldwide, as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (EWEs) induced by climate change increases. Such risks are difficult to estimate due to the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of CIs and because information sharing regarding the vulnerabilities of the different CIs is limited. This paper proposes a methodology for risk analysis of systems of interdependent CIs to EWEs. The methodology is developed and carried out for the Port of Rotterdam area in the Netherlands, which is used as a case study. The case study includes multiple CIs that belong to different sectors and can be affected at the same time by an initiating EWE. The proposed methodology supports the assessment of common cause failures that cascade across CIs and sectors. It is based on a simple, user-friendly approach that can be used by CIs owners and operators. The implementation of the methodology has shown that the severity of cascading effects is strongly influenced by the recovery time of the different CIs due to the initiating EWE and that cascading effects that result from a disruption in a single CI develop differently from cascading effects that result from common cause failures. For most CIs, vulnerabilities from EWEs on the CI level will be higher than the cascading risks of common cause failures on the system of CIs; moreover, cascading risks for a CI will increase after its recovery from the event.

Infrastructure is the backbone of our society. Citizens, companies and governments have come to rely on and expect uninterrupted availability of the road network. Extreme weather is an important factor for the reliability of the road network. At the same time it is generally understood that the climate is changing and that this will have significant effects on the road infrastructure. Since road infrastructure is vital to society, climate change calls for timely adaptation. Immediately, questions arise how to deal with the large uncertainties involved in the projections of future climate, how to assess their effects on the road infrastructure and related socio economic developments, and how to integrate adaptation into decision making. The ROADAPT project was commissioned under the CEDR Call 2012 ‘Road owners adapting to climate change’. It adopts a risk based approach using the RIMAROCC framework (Risk Management for Roads in a Changing Climate, developed under a previous ERA NET ROAD project). The approach addresses cause, effect and consequence of weather-related events to identify the top risks that require action with mitigating measures for climate change adaptation. Output of the ROADAPT project is a single ROADAPT-RIMAROCC integrating guideline.

The resilience of critical infrastructures (CI) to Extreme Weather Events (EWE) is one of the most salient and demanding challenges facing society. Growing scientific evidence suggests that more frequent and severe weather extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts and their effects such as flooding are having an ever increasing impact, with the range and effects on society exacerbated when CI is disrupted or destroyed. Disruptions of CI systems frequently cause major social and economic losses, both directly and through failures in one system leading to disruptions in another (cascading effects). The ability to ensure continuity in services provided by CI directly relates to the resilience of communities to withstand and recover from disasters. The approach adopted by the INTACT-project recognizes that a European-wide coordinated and cooperative effort is required because of cross border CI-activities and impacts as well as an integrated EU-policy.The INTACT-case studies and their expected outcomes are designed to bring added value for the concerned stakeholders locally and demonstrate the validity and applicability of the INTACT approach at the broader (European) scale. To achieve this, the selected case studies are geographically spread across Europe encompassing different climate, landscape and environmental zones, as to provide coverage of a representative range of CI types and also including different levels of governance.One of the case studies is located in the Netherlands and deals with the port of Rotterdam. The situation in Rotterdam is representative for many other main ports in Europe. These ports are all situated in a delta area, near the sea and rivers or canals. Also, these ports are close to urban areas and industrial complexes. Finally, these ports have a multimodal transport infrastructure to and from its hinterland, which is also vulnerable for extreme weather events. The case study is not only significant for the development of methods and tools, but also of direct interest for the region itself. The combination of the National Water safety policy and the best practices from the INTACT cases offer challenges to create better adaptation options and coping capacity to these relatively unforeseen and unexpected impacts based on climate change scenario’s and socio-economic megatrends.

Based on results of the RIMAROCC and SWAMP project in the ERANET Road call ´Road owners getting to grips with climate change´, the so-called lBlue spotsr study investigated the flooding events and the related likelihood of occurrence in detail for the Dutch highway network. Evidently, if risks need to be determined, the effects of occurrence of flooding events need to be determined as well. To assess the effects of the flooding events, five functionalities of the roads have been identified - and scored by experts - that are subject to change once a flooding event occurs. By describing likelihood and effects semi-quantitatively, assessing the risks followed. Major results are discussed and steps further into the risk assessment are described, two of them being including country-wide the effects of failure of regional defences in the water system and another study yet to start on the use of the road during evacuation and rescue, since flooding also affects the surrounding area. The paper finishes with a positive statement on the applicability of the approach in other European countries.

In the Netherlands research has been performed on the Observational Method, aiming at a wider use of the method in the design of underground and infrastructural construction works. This paper summarizes the guideline that was output of the research, providing a clear definition, an overview of obstacles and pre- conditions, practical recommendations on how to make a safe design while using the principles of Observational Method within the context of the Eurocode 7 and practical recommendations on how to organize the method during construction.

A Risk Model for Pile Foundations Thomas Bles, Saad Al-Jibouri, Jeroen van den Adel Pages 421-426 (2003 Proceedings of the 20th ISARC, Eindhoven, Holland, ISBN 978-90-6814-574-8, ISSN 2413-5844) Abstract: This paper describes a model which has been developed for the purpose of assessing major risks associated with various pile foundation types and their resulting financial consequences. The work is based on a review of possible geotechnical sources of risks encountered during the placing of pile foundations. Both literature and experts are used in order to compile lists of risks associated with the different types of piling methods. The model is intended to support geotechnical designers or contractors in making sound decisions as to the selection of piling foundation types that are appropriate to the specific situations at hand. The study has identified four major groups of risk events that can be possibly encountered when producing a specific pile foundation type; damage to surroundings, damage to the piles themselves, incorrect piles placements and damage to equipments. The study has also identified the parameters that have influence on the presence and magnitude of the undesired events. The research uses influence diagrams to model these events and to create what is termed as a risk network. A computer program, based on Bayesian probabilistic approach, is used to produce such a network whereby risks can be quantified in terms of costs and delays. The paper describes application of the model and draws conclusions on the results produced and the usefulness of the developed model as a tool for supporting design and construction decisions. Keywords: Risk model, Geotechnical design, Pile foundations DOI: https://doi.org/10.22260/ISARC2003/0068 Download fulltext Download BibTex Download Endnote (RIS) TeX Import to Mendeley

The objective of the RIMAROCC project is to develop a common ERA-NET ROAD method for risk analysis and risk management with regard to climate change. The purpose is to support decision making concerning adaptation measures in the road sector. To facilitate the work of end users the method is based upon, or at least be compatible with, general existing methods for risk analysis (and management) within the ERA-NET ROAD funders and other relevant methods. The project is focusing on risk analysis - with risk assessment, risk management in cost-benefit analysis and level of acceptable risk, and on risk management options, how to handle the risks. Specific attention was given to both new road design and improvement/maintenance/operation of existing roads. The first step of the project was a listening process to identify priority needs of the users, based on a simplified value engineering process. This is done through a dialogue where the functions and specific objectives of a risk management method are listed and weighted. These demands are the basis for the development of the RIMAROCC method. An important part of the project was to give several practical examples based on case study scenarios.