Cyanobacteria blooms are an increasing concern in U.S. freshwaters. Such blooms can produce nuisance conditions, deplete oxygen, and alter the food chain, and in some cases they may produce potent toxins, although many factors may modulate the relationships between biomass and toxin production. Cyanobacterial blooms are in turn associated with nutrient enrichment and warm water temperatures. Climate change is expected to increase water temperatures and, in many areas, surface runoff that can transport nutrient loads to lakes. While some progress has been made in short-term prediction of cyanobacterial bloom and toxin risk, the long-term projections of which lakes will become more vulnerable to such events as a result of climate change is less clear because of the complex interaction of multiple factors that affect bloom probability. We address this question by reviewing the literature to identify risk factors that increase lake vulnerability to cyanobacterial blooms and evaluating how climate change may alter these factors across the sample of conterminous U.S. lakes contained in the 2007 National Lakes Assessment. Results provide a national-scale assessment of where and in which types of lakes climate change will likely increase the overall risk of cyanobacterial blooms, rather than finer-scale prediction of expected cyanobacterial and toxin levels in individual lakes. This information can be used to guide climate change adaptation planning, including monitoring and management efforts to minimize the effects of increased cyanobacterial prevalence.

Climate change is expected to result in more intense precipitation events that will affect the performance and design requirements of stormwater infrastructure. Such changes will vary spatially, and climate models provide a range of estimates of the effects on events of different intensities and recurrence. Infrastructure performance should be evaluated against the expected range of events, not just rare extremes. We present a national-scale, spatially detailed screening assessment of the potential effects of climatic change on precipitation, stormwater runoff, and associated design requirements. This is accomplished through adjustment relative to multiple future climate scenarios of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency analyses presented in NOAA Atlas 14, which are commonly used in infrastructure design. Future precipitation results are estimated for each Atlas 14 station (these currently omit the Pacific Northwest). Results are interpolated using a geographically conditioned regression kriging approach to provide information about potential climate change impacts in a format more directly useful to local stormwater managers. The intensity of 24-h events with 2-year or greater recurrence is likely to increase in most areas of the United States leading to increased runoff and potential need for increased storage volumes. Changes in more frequent events (e.g., the 90th percentile event) commonly used in design of green infrastructure are relatively less.

Wilson, Charlie; Brey, Richard; Caffrey, Emily; Harris, Jason; Johnson, Thomas; Little, Craig; Tolmachev, Sergey Y Author Information

Ongoing and potential future changes in precipitation will affect water management infrastructure. Urban drainage systems are particularly vulnerable. Design standards for many stormwater practices rely on design storms based on precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. In many locations, climate projections suggest relatively small changes in total precipitation volume, but increased magnitude of extreme events. We develop an approach for estimating future IDF curves that is efficient, can use widely available downscaled GCM output, and is consistent with published IDF curves for the USA that are used in local stormwater regulations and design guides. The method is GCM-agnostic and provides a relatively simple way to develop scenarios in a format directly useful to assessing risk to stormwater management infrastructure. Model biases are addressed through equidistant quantile mapping, in which the modeled change in both the location and scale of the cumulative distribution of storm events from historical to future conditions is used to adjust the extreme value fit used for IDF curve development. The approach requires only precipitation annual maxima, is readily automated, and hits a mid-point between theoretical rigor and ease of application that will be of practical use for the rapid screening of vulnerabilities across projections. We demonstrate estimation of future IDF curves at locations throughout the USA and link IDF-derived design storms to a rainfall-runoff model to evaluate the potential change in storage volume requirements for capture-based stormwater management practices by 2065.

Stream water temperature imposes metabolic constraints on the health of cold-water fish like salmonids. Timber harvesting can reduce stream shading leading to higher water temperatures, while also altering stream hydrology. In the Pacific Northwest, riparian buffer requirements are designed to mitigate these impacts; however, anticipated future changes in air temperature and precipitation could reduce the efficacy of these practices in protecting aquatic ecosystems. Using a combined modeling approach (Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Shade, and QUAL2K), this study examines the effectiveness of riparian buffers in reducing impacts of timber harvest on stream water temperature in Lookout Creek, Oregon across a range of potential future climates. Simulations assess changes in riparian management alone, climate alone, and combined effects. Results suggest that maximum stream water temperatures during thermal stress events are projected to increase by 3.3-7.4 °C due to hydroclimatic change alone by the end of this century. Riparian management is effective in reducing stream temperature increases from timber harvesting alone but cannot fully counteract the additional effects of a warming climate. Overall, our findings suggest that the protection of sensitive aquatic species will likely require additional adaptation strategies, such as the protection or provisioning of cool water refugia, to enhance survival during maximum thermal stress events.

Anticipated future hydroclimatic changes are expected to alter the transport and survival of fecally-sourced waterborne pathogens, presenting an increased risk of recreational water quality impairments. Managing future risk requires an understanding of interactions between fecal sources, hydroclimatic conditions and best management practices (BMPs) at spatial scales relevant to decision makers. In this study we used the Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN to quantify potential fecal coliform (FC - an indicator of the potential presence of pathogens) responses to a range of mid-century climate scenarios and assess different BMP scenarios (based on reduction factors) for reducing the risk of water quality impairment in two, small agricultural watersheds - the Chippewa watershed in Minnesota, and the Tye watershed in Virginia. In each watershed, simulations show a wide range of FC responses, driven largely by variability in projected future precipitation. Wetter future conditions, which drive more transport from non-point sources (e.g. manure application, livestock grazing), show increases in FC loads. Loads typically decrease under drier futures; however, higher mean FC concentrations and more recreational water quality criteria exceedances occur, likely caused by reduced flow during low-flow periods. Median changes across the ensemble generally show increases in FC load. BMPs that focus on key fecal sources (e.g., runoff from pasture, livestock defecation in streams) within a watershed can mitigate the effects of hydroclimatic change on FC loads. However, more extensive BMP implementation or improved BMP efficiency (i.e., higher FC reductions) may be needed to fully offset increases in FC load and meet water quality goals, such as total maximum daily loads and recreational water quality standards. Strategies for managing climate risk should be flexible and to the extent possible include resilient BMPs that function as designed under a range of future conditions.

Regenerative stormwater conveyance (RSC), a relatively new stormwater management approach, is extensively implemented throughout the mid-Atlantic for nutrient control, but little is known of its pollutant reduction capabilities and controlling factors. This study examined effects of organic carbon (C) quantity and quality on stream water quality and nutrient retention at two RSCs near Annapolis, Maryland, USA by comparing longitudinal changes in water quality at paired restored and unrestored stream reaches, and conducting lab experiments simulating RSC processes. Results showed that RSCs consistently had lower dissolved oxygen saturation (DO%) and pH relative to nearby unrestored streams, probably due to release of labile dissolved organic carbon (DOC). At one RSC, with high nitrate (NO3−) inputs, retention of N (16–37%) and release of DOC (18–54%) were observed with the highest retention of N during summer, and the rates of N retention and DOC release were larger than that of the adjacent unrestored tributary (N: 5–8%, DOC: <18%). At another RSC site with lower NO3− concentrations, N retention and DOC release were not apparent. Mesocosm experiments showed that NO3− retention varies with organic C quantity and quality depending on incubating temperature; retention of total N did not increase with organic C due to release of other N species (e.g., organic N). Lab mesocosms showed an increase in the release of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) with increasing organic C quantity and quality. However, field measurements did not show any evidence of SRP release at RSCs. The changes in SRP concentrations in streams seemed to be a function of iron levels and leaf litter inputs, but control factors for SRP warrant further investigation. This study suggests that RSC as a restoration approach may be effective for reducing N depending upon C quantity and quality as well as water temperature and N levels.

Agricultural best management practices (BMPs) reduce non-point source pollution from cropland. Goals for BMP adoption and expected pollutant load reductions are often specified in water quality management plans to protect and restore waterbodies; however, estimates of needed load reductions and pollutant removal performance of BMPs are generally based on historic climate. Increasing air temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are anticipated throughout the U.S. over the 21st century. The effects of such changes on agricultural pollutant loads have been addressed by several authors, but how these changes will affect the performance of widely promoted BMPs has received limited attention. We use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate potential changes in the effectiveness of conservation tillage, no-till, vegetated filter strips, grassed waterways, nutrient management, winter cover crops, and drainage water management practices under potential future temperature and precipitation patterns. We simulate two agricultural watersheds in the Minnesota Corn Belt and the Georgia Coastal Plain with different hydro-climatic settings, under recent conditions (1950-2005) and multiple potential future mid-century (2030-2059) and late-century (2070-2099) climate scenarios. Results suggest future increases in agricultural source loads of sediment, nitrogen and phosphorous. Most BMPs continue to reduce loads, but removal efficiencies generally decline due to more intense runoff events, biological responses to changes in soil moisture and temperature, and exacerbated upland loading. The coupled effects of higher upland loading and reduced BMP efficiencies suggest that wider adoption, resizing, and/or combining practices may be needed in the future to meet water quality goals for agricultural lands.

SMALLSAT INVESTIGATION OF HYDRATION AND SPACE WEATHERING PROCESSES AT THE MOON. T. J. Stubbs, B. K. Malphrus, R. Hoyt, M. A. Mesarch, M. Tsay, D. J. Chai, M. K. Choi, M. R. Collier, J. W. Keller, W. M. Farrell, J. R. Espley, J. S. Halekas, A. P. Zucherman, R. R. Vondrak, P. E. Clark, D. C. Folta, T. E. Johnson, G. Y. Kramer, S. Fatemi, J. Deca, J. R. Gruesbeck, J. L. McLain, M. E. Purucker, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA, Morehead State University, Morehead, KY, USA, Tethers Unlimited, Inc., Bothell, WA, USA, Busek Co. Inc., Natick, MA, USA, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA, NASA Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops, VA, USA, Lunar and Planetary Institute, Houston, TX, USA, Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna, Sweden, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA. Timothy.J.Stubbs@NASA.gov

This report is an authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus on the United States. It represents the second of two volumes of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990.

In this paper we review the published, scientific literature addressing the response of nutrients, sediment, pathogens, and cyanobacterial blooms to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk, to inform management responses, and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Results suggest that anticipated future changes present a risk of water quality and ecosystem degradation in many United States locations. Understanding responses is, however, complicated by inherent high spatial and temporal variability, interactions with land use and water management, and dependence on uncertain changes in hydrology in response to future climate. Effects on pollutant loading in different watershed settings generally correlate with projected changes in precipitation and runoff. In all regions, increased heavy precipitation events are likely to drive more episodic pollutant loading to water bodies. The risk of algal blooms could increase due to an expanded seasonal window of warm water temperatures and the potential for episodic increases in nutrient loading. Increased air and water temperatures are also likely to affect the survival of waterborne pathogens. Responding to these challenges requires understanding of vulnerabilities, and management strategies to reduce risk.

Climate change is likely to alter the quantity and quality of urban stormwater, presenting a risk to water quality and public health. How might stormwater management practices need to change to address future climate? Answering requires understanding how management practices respond to climate forcing. Traditional "gray" stormwater design employs engineered structures, sized based on assumptions about future rainfall, which have limited flexibility once built. Green infrastructure (GI) uses vegetation, soil, and distributed structures to manage rainwater where it falls and may provide greater flexibility for adaptation. There is, however, uncertainty about how a warmer climate may affect performance of different types of GI. This study uses the hydrologic and biogeochemical watershed model, Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), to investigate sensitivity of different GI practices to climate. Simulations examine 36 urban "archetypes" representing different development patterns (at the city block scale) of typical U.S. cities, eleven regional climatic settings, and a range of mid-21st century scenarios based on downscaled climate model output. Results suggest regionally variable effects of climate change on the performance of GI practices for water quantity, water quality, and carbon sequestration. GI is able to mitigate most projected future increases in surface runoff, while bioretention can mitigate increased nitrogen yield at nine of eleven sites. Simulated changes in carbon balance are small, while local evaporative cooling can be substantial. Given uncertainty in the local expression of future climate, infrastructure design should emphasize flexibility and robustness to a range of future conditions.

Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on United States (U.S.) water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al., we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses, and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest, and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid‐Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.

Movement of fishes through space and time is critical for population regulation and community structuring, but the dispersal of many benthic stream fishes remains unstudied. We used passive integrated transponders to track the short-term dispersal of 51 banded sculpin Cottus carolinae throughout a 600 m reach of Little Creek in central Tennessee during April and May. Our objectives were to assess the efficacy of recently developed dispersal models, evaluate temporal variability in movement and determine whether individuals switched between stationary and mobile movement behaviours. Observed movement distances did not differ from modelled leptokurtic dispersal kernels estimated using the fishmove package in the R Statistical Environment for 12 of 13 recapture occasions. Leptokurtic dispersal kernel parameters including the mobile component (σmob) and shared stationary component (p) were temporally dynamic and differed from static median values reported for fishes in fishmove, while the more abundant stationary component (σstat) showed agreement with fishmove. The recapture occasion during which model predictions were not validated was associated with a large flow pulse that stimulated increased movement at the population scale. At the individual scale, 28 of 51 fish switched between stationary and mobile dispersal behaviour and the frequency distribution of switches was leptokurtic. Collectively, our findings reveal an emergent property characterised by consistent upstream movement of banded sculpin despite variability in population-scale responses to flow and individual-scale switches in movement behaviour. This paradox represents the march of the sculpin, in which fish diffusively spread upstream at a constant rate despite multiscale variability in movement behaviours.

A warming climate increases thermal inputs to lakes with potential implications for water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In a previous study, we used a dynamic water column temperature and mixing simulation model to simulate chronic (7-day average) maximum temperatures under a range of potential future climate projections at selected sites representative of different U.S. regions. Here, to extend results to lakes where dynamic models have not been developed, we apply a novel machine learning approach that uses Gaussian Process regression to describe the model response surface as a function of simplified lake characteristics (depth, surface area, water clarity) and climate forcing (winter and summer air temperatures and potential evapotranspiration). We use this approach to extrapolate predictions from the simulation model to the statistical sample of U.S. lakes in the National Lakes Assessment (NLA) database. Results provide a national-scale scoping assessment of the potential thermal risk to lake water quality and ecosystems across the U.S. We suggest a small fraction of lakes will experience less risk of summer thermal stress events due to changes in stratification and mixing dynamics, but most will experience increases. The percentage of lakes in the NLA with simulated 7-day average maximum water temperatures in excess of 30°C is projected to increase from less than 2% to approximately 22% by the end of the 21st century, which could significantly reduce the number of lakes that can support cold water fisheries. Site-specific analysis of the full range of factors that influence thermal profiles in individual lakes is needed to develop appropriate adaptation strategies.

Assessing stream fish habitat associations across contrasting ecosystems can inform generality of habitat predictions. We tracked Cottus carolinae (Banded Sculpin) in Little Creek, TN, to test transferability of habitat predictions developed from independent studies. Predictions included shifting habitat use across size classes (prediction 1), over the diel period (prediction 2), and during variable flows (prediction 3), as well as maintaining associations with depth, velocity, and substrate gradients across scales (prediction 4). Size 1 (80-99 mm TL) and size 2 (100-140 mm TL) Banded Sculpin used similar habitats (prediction 1 not supported), shifted to pools with little cover at night (prediction 2 supported), and adjusted habitat uses according to flow (prediction 3 supported), and depth, velocity, and substrate associations were similar for small and large streams when size classes were combined (prediction 4 supported). Our synthesis highlights consistencies in fish habitat associations that manifest due to behavioral, morphological, and physiological constraints that operate across ecosystems.

Life history theory predictions for hydrologic filtering of fish assemblages are rarely tested with historical time series data. We retrospectively analyzed flow regime and fish assemblage data from the Sabine River, USA, to test relationships between life history strategies and hydrologic variability altered by impoundment construction. Downstream flow variability, but not magnitude, was altered by completion of Toledo Bend Reservoir (TBR) in 1966. Consistent with life history theory, occurrence of opportunistic strategists declined while equilibrium strategists increased as the fish assemblage was transformed between periods immediately after (1967–1973) and approximately one decade after (1979–1982) completion of TBR. Assemblage transformation was related to decline of opportunistic strategists throughout 250 km of river downstream of TBR. Temporal trajectories for opportunistic and intermediate strategist richness modelled as a function of flow variability converged 12 years postimpoundment. The spatiotemporal scaling of our study is novel among tests of life history theory, and results suggest impoundment-induced alteration to natural hydrologic filtering of fish assemblages can operate on the scale of hundreds of stream kilometres and manifest within approximately one decade.

Simulations of future climate change impacts on water resources are subject to multiple and cascading uncertainties associated with different modeling and methodological choices. A key facet of this uncertainty is the coarse spatial resolution of GCM output compared to the finer-resolution information needed by water managers. To address this issue, it is now common practice to apply spatial downscaling techniques, using either higher-resolution regional climate models or statistical approaches applied to GCM output to develop finer-resolution information for use in water resources impacts assessments. Downscaling, however, can also introduce its own uncertainties into water resources impacts assessments. This study uses watershed simulations in five U.S. basins to quantify the sources of variability in streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads associated with the underlying GCM compared to the choice of downscaling method (both statistically and dynamically downscaled GCM output). We also assess the specific, incremental effects of downscaling by comparing watershed simulations based on downscaled and non-downscaled GCM model output. Results show that the underlying GCM and the downscaling method each contribute to the variability of simulated watershed responses. The relative contribution of GCM and downscaling method to the variability of simulated responses varies by watershed and season of the year. Results illustrate the potential implications of one key methodological choice in conducting climate change impacts assessments for water - the selection of downscaled climate change information.