Abundance data are used in ecology for species monitoring and conservation. These count data often display several specific characteristics like numerous missing data, high variance, and a high proportion of zeros, particularly when monitoring rare species. We present a model that aims to impute missing data and estimate the effect of covariates on species presence and abundance. It is based on the log-normal Poisson model, which offers more flexibility in the variance of counts than a Poisson model. A latent variable is added for the overrepresentation of zeros in the data. The imputation of missing data is made possible by assuming that the latent variance matrix has low rank and the inclusion of covariates. We demonstrate the identifiability in the presence of missing data. Since maximum likelihood inference is intractable, we use a variational expectation-maximization algorithm to infer the parameters. We provide an estimate of the asymptotic variance of the estimators and derive prediction intervals for the imputations, an estimate of the temporal trend, and a procedure for detecting a potential change in this trend. We evaluate our imputations and associated prediction intervals using artificially degraded monitoring data set. We conclude with an illustration on a monitoring waterbirds data set.

European waterbird and seabird populations have been threatened by anthropogenic activities for decades. Effective strategies are needed to restore both populations and their habitats. However, the temporal period used to define the state of reference when setting restoration targets requires careful considerations to avoid the risk of shifting baseline. A risk of shifting baseline occurs if a population decreases before the time period used to set a baseline. In Europe, most bird monitoring schemes started after the 1970s, yet significant changes in population trends were already reported earlier in the 20th century. We assessed the risk of shifting baseline for 88 out of 170 waterbird and seabird species breeding in Europe. Building on historical ecology, we reconstructed population trends between 1900 and 2018 from information collected in both historical literature and monitoring scheme reports. Historical trends confirm variations in population trends for several waterbird and seabird species over the period 1900-1970, with 35 decreasing species, 38 fluctuating species, 15 increasing species and 82 species with unknown trends. A high risk of shifting baseline was identified for 28 species, for which restoration targets must consider historical trends spanning at least a century. The risk was low for 12 species, probably low for 41 species, probably high for 7 species and uncertain for 82 species. Our study highlights the crucial role of historical data collected prior to the large-scale implementation of standardized abundance monitoring, as it allows for the identification of appropriate baselines to guide the restoration of waterbird and seabird breeding populations.

Wetlands have been some of the most destroyed ecosystems over the last century, with important land-use changes resulting from agricultural, industrial, and urban development. Gediz Delta is a large wetland on the Aegean coast of Western Türkiye with natural areas affected by conversion to agriculture and urban developments from the Izmir metropolis. We assessed the effects of landscape type (natural, agricultural, and urban) on the composition of breeding bird (90 species) and reptile (14 species) communities in the Gediz Delta between 2019 and 2021. We used generalized linear models to estimate the effect of landscape types on community indexes and joint species distribution models to assess how species-specific habitat preferences explained their responses to landscape type. Our results show that bird and reptile community compositions were impacted differently depending on landscape type. Landscape type significantly affected bird abundance and Shannon equality indices but had no significant effect on bird and reptile species richness. Natural landscapes accommodated higher bird abundance and lower diversity indexes than the other two landscapes. On the other hand, we found that urban and agricultural landscapes accommodated more generalist species than natural ones. Natural landscapes were preferred by Marine Coastal and Inland wetland bird specialists and reptiles relying on Mediterranean Habitats. Overall, these results suggest that community composition encountered in different landscape types is explained by species’ habitat specializations. We highlight the critical importance of natural landscapes for conserving specialist species within the Delta while showing the potential of agricultural areas for a few freshwater reptile species. These results imply that the Gediz Delta would benefit from biodiversity conservation planning to enhance the protection of natural habitats and mitigate the negative impacts of agricultural and urban development on bird and reptile populations.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to cause major changes to coastal wetlands, which are among the world's most vulnerable ecosystems and are critical for nonbreeding waterbirds. Because strategies for adaptation to SLR, such as nature-based solutions and designation of protected areas, can locally reduce the negative effects of coastal flooding under SLR on coastal wetlands, it is crucial to prioritize adaptation efforts, especially for wetlands of international importance for biodiversity. We assessed the exposure of coastal wetlands important for nonbreeding waterbirds to projected SLR along the Mediterranean coasts of 8 countries by modeling future coastal flooding under 7 scenarios of SLR by 2100 (from 44- to 161-cm rise) with a static inundation approach. Exposure to coastal flooding under future SLR was assessed for 938 Mediterranean coastal sites (≤30 km from the coastline) where 145 species of nonbreeding birds were monitored as part of the International Waterbird Census and for which the monitoring area was delineated by a polygon (64.3% of the coastal sites monitored in the Mediterranean region). Thirty-four percent of sites were threatened by future SLR, even under the most optimistic scenarios. Protected study sites and study sites of international importance for waterbirds were, respectively, 1.5 and 2 times more exposed to SLR than the other sites under the most optimistic scenario. Accordingly, we advocate for the development of a prioritization scheme to be applied to these wetlands for the implementation of strategies for adaptation to SLR to anticipate the effects of coastal flooding. Our study provides major guidance for conservation planning under global change in several countries of the Mediterranean region.

Context Bird species have been studied and documented abundantly in the past decades and are good indicators of ecosystem conditions, providing useful information of the changes in the ecological state of wetlands over time. However, monitoring data for birds in wetland sites are often disparate and not homogeneous over time and among species, which complicates the interpretation of trends. Aims We examined historical literature from 1835 to 2019, complemented by an expert knowledge survey and citizen-science databases to estimate the abundance of species, and evaluated changes in the structure and composition by average bird abundances. Key results Our results suggested that land-cover and land-use changes have shaped the local bird community, with a decline in agricultural and grassland bird species as a result of changes in agricultural practices. Coastal wetland and marine birds have increased in abundance, most probably linked to the extension of saltpans and successful conservation measures. Conclusions These trends in bird communities demonstrate the impacts of different land management strategies on biodiversity. Implications This methodology can be replicated in other Ramsar and wetland sites around the world to raise new conservation issues and improve site conservation.

As we enter the next phase of international policy commitments to halt biodiversity loss (e.g., Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework), biodiversity indicators will play an important role in forming the robust basis upon which targeted, and time sensitive conservation actions are developed. Population trend indicators are one of the most powerful tools in biodiversity monitoring due to their responsiveness to changes over short timescales and their ability to aggregate species trends from global down to sub-national or even local scale. We consider how the project behind one of the foremost population level indicators - the Living Planet Index - has evolved over the last 25 years, its value to the field of biodiversity monitoring, and how its components have portrayed a compelling account of the changing status of global biodiversity through its application at policy, research and practice levels. We explore ways the project can develop to enhance our understanding of the state of biodiversity and share lessons learned to inform indicator development and mobilise action.

Breeding birds in agricultural landscapes have declined considerably since the 1950s and the beginning of agricultural intensification in Europe. Given the increasing pressure on agricultural land, it is necessary to identify conservation measures that consume little productive land. We tested the compensation hypothesis which states that field margins may represent substitute habitats for bird species in agricultural wetlands. We monitored bird species in 86 crop fields in rice paddy landscapes of Camargue (southern France), a wetland of international importance for birds. We investigated whether the area of three types of field margins (reed strips, grass strips and hedgerows) within a 500 meter buffer around the centroid of each crop fields had an effect on the abundance of bird species from three groups defined based on their primary habitat (reedbeds, grasslands, and forest edge species). We controlled for the area of each type of semi-natural habitat (wetlands, grasslands, and woodlands), crop diversity (rice, wheat, alfalfa, rape, and market gardening) and mean crop field size. Results show partial support of the compensation hypothesis with species-dependent responses to primary and substitute habitat area. Some species within the reedbed and grassland bird guilds are favored by the area of their primary habitat as well as by the area of field margins, in line with the compensation hypothesis. Eurasian reed warbler is favored by the area of both wetlands and reed strips. Corn bunting is favored by grassland and grass strip areas. We could not confirm the compensation hypothesis for other species. However, this may be due to the fact that most of these species did not respond to their primary habitat. These results therefore suggest that field margins may represent substitute habitats for some species but further studies, in contexts where species are strongly associated with their primary habitat, would be needed to confirm the generality of this hypothesis. Our results also suggest that species response to increasing the area of a field margin type may vary among guilds and even within guilds. Therefore, it may be difficult to favor all species within a given landscape and management actions may need to be tailored to whichever species are locally associated with the highest conservation priority. To tackle this challenge, it may be necessary to design landscape management actions at different spatial scales.

Thermal adjustment of waterbird communities to climate warming is crucial but hampered by natural habitat conversion, increasing their climatic debt. As it is, in contrast, facilitated in protected areas, assessing the adequacy of the current protected areas network with respect to future climate and land-use changes and identifying priority sites to protect is of major importance. In this study, we assess the thermal adjustment limitations that non-breeding waterbird communities might experience by the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean region to highlight priorities for wetland protection. Priorities were set by combining the exposure of waterbird communities to natural habitat conversion and climate warming with their thermal specialization. The latter was calculated using winter abundance data of 151 species from 2932 sites of the International Waterbird Census in 21 Mediterranean countries. Exposure was assessed using future projections of temperature and land-use under four CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). We found that strictly protected areas are located in wetlands whose waterbird communities, without protection, would likely experience high limitations in thermal adjustment in the coming decades. This highlights that the location of existing protected areas may effectively support the thermal adjustment of waterbird communities to future climate warming. However, 490 sites considered at risk lack protection, including 32 sites of international importance for waterbirds, stressing the need to strengthen the protected areas network in these sites in priority. Our study provides important guidance for conservation planning in the Mediterranean region to support waterbird responses to climate change.

Identifying sites that are both important for biodiversity and likely to be heavily affected by anthropogenic pressures in the future is crucial to settle priorities in the implementation of conservation measures, such as the designation of new protected areas. Although assessing the exposure of terrestrial Key Biodiversity Areas to global change would support such identification, it has never been performed to our knowledge. In addition, previous exposure assessments have been limited to few metrics of climate change and have not considered other global change components. Here, we assess the extent to which terrestrial (including inland water) Key Biodiversity Areas are exposed to future climate change and land-use modifications in 29 countries of the Mediterranean region, and identify countries where additional protection efforts are most needed. To this end, we calculated two local and two regional exposure metrics using projections of climate and land-use for late 21(st) century under four scenarios that were used in the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). These four exposure metrics were subsequently combined into an exposure index ranking sites from least to most exposed to climate and land-use changes. We highlight that the most exposed non-protected Key Biodiversity Areas are located in countries where the protection of this network is lowest (i.e., high number and percentage of non-protected sites). We also found that Key Biodiversity Areas were overall more exposed than the rest of the study zone and that the sites most in need of conservation actions were similar across future scenarios. Our study reinforces the pressing necessity to strengthen and extend conservation measures in Mediterranean Key Biodiversity Areas, especially in Middle-East and Maghreb countries whose Key Biodiversity Areas are both at risk to be strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures and insufficiently protected.

Increase in pesticide use and landscape homogenization are two key drivers of the decline in farmland biodiversity. The effects of these two drivers are often complex, interactive and vary among taxonomic groups. Our study tested the hypothesis that pesticide use influences the effect of different components of landscape complexity on different taxonomic groups. We sampled 32 rice paddy landscapes of 1 * 1 km in the Camargue (south of France), a wetland internationally recognized as an exceptional biodiversity hotspot. We assessed the abundance and diversity of 7 taxa (plants, bees, butterflies, hoverflies, carabids, spiders and birds) in 3 or 4 crop fields per landscape. For each landscape, we measured the length of different field margins (ditch, grass strip, hedgerow), the proportion of semi-natural areas and crop diversity. For each field, we measured management intensity by the treatment frequency index (TFI) of pesticides. We then tested our hypothesis across 118 fields. Our results show that different components of landscape complexity influence different taxonomic groups: crop diversity and the length of ditches influence bee abundance and species richness, the proportion of semi-natural areas influence spider abundance and species richness, and the length of grass strips influences bird abundance. Moreover, we show that local pesticide use modulates these effects, with more positive effects of landscape complexity in intensively-managed fields. However, we found no interactive effect between landscape complexity and field management for plants, butterflies, hoverflies and carabids. Our study therefore suggests that different components of landscape complexity need to be maintained in order to preserve multiple taxonomic groups. Moreover, it suggests that increasing landscape complexity is particularly relevant to restore biodiversity in intensively-managed fields. Agricultural policies should therefore support the simultaneous increase in semi-natural areas, field margins length and crop diversity to conserve a wide range of taxonomic groups in intensively-managed rice paddy landscapes.

The Mediterranean Basin is a biodiversity hotspot. Wetlands make a key contribution to this status, but many of them remain outside the Ramsar network fifty years after the establishment of the Ramsar Convention. Here we evaluate the extent to which the Mediterranean Ramsar network covers wetlands of international importance for wintering waterbirds using the Ramsar Convention criteria 2 (species of conservation concern), 5 (> 20,000 waterbirds) and 6 (1% of a population). These criteria were applied to 4186 sites in 24 Mediterranean countries using counts of 145 wintering waterbird species from 1991 to 2017. We identified 161 sites of international importance for waterbirds that have not yet been declared as Ramsar sites, which could be added to the 180 current Mediterranean Ramsar sites established based on waterbird criteria (criteria 5 and/or 6). Among these sites, a subset of 32 very important sites reached double the required level for at least one criterion and 95 were not protected by any site conservation status. Coastal wetlands represented half of the Ramsar gap for waterbirds. We identified that an additional 1218 monitored sites could be provisionally considered as internationally important and thus require more survey efforts to assess their status. This study highlights a lack of participation of the Mediterranean countries to build the Ramsar network for wetland protection. Our results should help policymakers and managers to prioritize future Ramsar site designation, notably in the Middle East and Western European region where important gaps were identified.

Wetlands are critically important for biodiversity and human wellbeing, but face a range of challenges. This is especially true in the Mediterranean region, where wetlands support endemic and threatened species and remain integral to human societies, but have been severely degraded in recent decades. Here, in order to raise awareness of future challenges and opportunities for Mediterranean wetlands, and to inform proactive research and management, we identified (a) 50 key issues that might affect Mediterranean wetlands between 2020 and 2050, and (b) 50 important research questions that, if answered, would have the greatest impact on the conservation of Mediterranean wetlands between 2020 and 2050. We gathered ideas through an online survey and review of recent literature. A diverse assessment panel prioritised ideas through an iterative, anonymised, Delphi-like process of scoring, voting and discussion. The prioritised issues included some that are already well known but likely to have a large impact on Mediterranean wetlands in the next 30 years (e.g. the accumulation of dams and reservoirs, plastic pollution and weak governance), and some that are currently overlooked in the context of Mediterranean wetlands (e.g. increasing desalination capacity and development of antimicrobial resistance). Questions largely focused on how best to carry out conservation interventions, or understanding the impacts of threats to inform conservation decision-making. This analysis will support research, policy and practice related to environmental conservation and sustainable development in the Mediterranean, and provides a model for similar analyses elsewhere in the world.

El informe Perspectiva mundial sobre los humedales: Edición especial de 2021 ha sido elaborado con motivo del 50º aniversario de la Convención. Basándose en más de 30 evaluaciones mundiales y regionales importantes y otros hallazgos científicos recientes, describe la pandemia y sus repercusiones, las tendencias en los humedales desde 2018, las lecciones para el uso racional y la protección de los humedales y cómo se puede aprovechar la Convención sobre los Humedales para abordar los desafíos que enfrentan los humedales.

Although the impacts of climate and land-use changes on biodiversity have been widely documented, their joint effects remain poorly understood. We evaluated how nonbreeding waterbird communities adjust to climate warming along a gradient of land-use change. Using midwinter waterbird counts (132 species) at 164 major nonbreeding sites in 22 Mediterranean countries, we assessed the changes in species composition from 1991 to 2010, relative to thermal niche position and breadth, in response to regional and local winter temperature anomalies and conversion of natural habitats. We observed a low-level, nonsignificant community adjustment to the temperature increase where natural habitat conversion occurred. At the sites affected by natural habitat conversion, the relative increase of warm-dwelling species in response to climate warming was 6 times lower and the relative species decline was 3 times higher than in the sites without natural habitat conversion. We found no evidence of community adjustment to climate warming when natural habitat conversion was >5% over 15 years. This strong negative effect suggests an antagonistic interaction between climate warming and habitat change. These results underline the importance of habitat conservation in community adjustment to climate warming.

This chapter reviews the current state of knowledge of Mediterranean wetlands in the sense of the Ramsar Convention and their recent trends, largely based on the results produced by the Mediterranean Wetlands Observatory. It shows an overall picture of continued loss and degradation of Mediterranean wetlands, in terms of numbers, diversity, surface area, abundance of wetland-dependent species, etc. Among the key factors explaining this situation are urbanization, the development of agriculture, dam construction, and increasing water consumption. The capacity of Mediterranean wetlands to provide ecosystem services has therefore declined. However, the countries continue to commit to the protection of wetlands and the number of sites designated under the Ramsar Convention continues to increase—although implementation of their management plans remains an issue.

Wetlands are known to support diverse and unique species assemblages. Globally, but particularly in the Mediterranean basin, they are threatened by climate change and natural habitat loss. Despite an alarming decline of wetlands over the last century, standardised and systematic site assessments at large scale do not exist. Here, we perform an integrated assessment of Mediterranean wetlands by evaluating the combination of wetland protection and anthropogenic pressures, namely climate and land cover change, and the subsequent impact on wintering waterbirds. We used a multivariate partial triadic analysis to quantify climate and land cover change for each site between 1990 and 2005. We found that wetland sites in the southeast of the Mediterranean basin combined low or no protection cover with the highest increases in temperature and losses in natural habitats. Despite these findings, these sites also lack observation data on biodiversity, which may underestimate the resulting impacts. However, there are examples where active conservation measurements contributed positively to slow down wetlands’ reduction. Biodiversity data coverage needs to be ensured, regularly updated, and extended across sites regardless of their protection level, to allow for the assessment of biodiversity trends. This should be further extended to include current investments in remote sensing approaches.

The Ramsar Convention is the multilateral agreement aimed at protecting wetlands globally. Wetlands are particularly recognized for their role in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot by providing key habitats for endemic and migratory species, directly contributing benefits to the lives of people and being an integral part of their culture. In response to this importance, the Mediterranean Wetlands Observatory publishes Mediterranean Wetland Outlooks (MWOs) on the state and trends of Mediterranean wetlands; the first edition in 2012 (MWO1) and the second edition in 2018 (MWO2). In this paper, we used the results of the two Mediterranean Wetland Outlooks to highlight ways to increase the impact of the Ramsar Convention by identifying the spatial dimensions of detected biodiversity trends as well as the societal developments and estimated impacts of global change and protection status.

Mediterranean wetlands are critical strongholds for biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem functions and services; yet, they are being severely degraded by a number of socio-economic drivers and pressures, including climate change. Moreover, we still lack comprehensive understanding of the extent to which biodiversity loss in Mediterranean wetlands will accelerate change in ecosystem processes. Here, we evaluate how changes in biodiversity can alter the ecosystem of the Camargue (southern France). We collected data on species presence/absence, trends and abundance over a 40-year period by combining observations from the scholarly literature with insights derived from expert knowledge. In total, we gathered more than 1500 estimates of presence/absence, over 1400 estimates of species abundance, and about 1400 estimates of species trends for eight taxonomic groups, i.e. amphibians, reptiles, breeding birds, fish, mammals, dragonflies (odonates), orthopterans and vascular plants. Furthermore, we used information on recently arrived species and invasive species to identify compositional changes across multiple taxa. Complementing targeted literature searches with expert knowledge allowed filling important gaps regarding the status and trends of biodiversity in the Camargue. Species trend data revealed sharp population declines in amphibians, odonates and orthopterans, while birds and plants experienced an average increase in abundance between the 1970s and the 2010s. The general increasing trends of novel and invasive species is suggested as an explanation for the changing abundance of birds and plants. While the observed declines in certain taxa reflect the relative failure of the protection measures established in the Camargue, the increasing exposure to novel and invasive species reveal major changes in the community structure of the different taxonomic groups. This study is the first attempt to assess changes in biodiversity in the Camargue using an expert knowledge approach, and can help manage the uncertainties and complexities associated with rapid social-ecological change in other Mediterranean wetlands.

Climate change is one of the strongest biodiversity threats. Worse still, the impact of multiple anthropic stressors on species dynamics could complicate adaptation to temperature increase. International conservation policies aim to protect ecosystems against anthropic pressures, but their ability to facilitate adaptation to climate change has yet to be assessed. Using wetland bird monitoring surveys, we evaluated the differences at the country scale of community adjustment to temperature increase of wintering waterbird communities (145 species) according to the implementation of the two main western Palearctic international conservation policies (Bern Convention and Birds Directive) in the Mediterranean basin (2786 sites, 22 countries) over a 22-year period. We showed that thermic community composition increases over time in countries which have enforced conservation policies. We found that strictly protected species under the Birds Directive and the Bern Convention contributed more to this community adjustment than the not strictly protected species. The mechanism results from a population increase in protected warm-dwelling species but not from a decline in cold-dwelling species. This study supports the ability of international conservation policies to mitigate the effect of climate change on animal communities.