Background and aims To assess development of a robust emissions accounting framework for expansive miombo woodland savannas covering ~2 million km2 of southern Africa that typically are burnt under relatively severe late dry season (LDS) conditions. Methods A detailed site-based study of fuel accumulation, combustion and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factor parameters under early dry season (EDS) and LDS conditions along a central rainfall-productivity and associated miombo vegetation structural and floristics gradient, from lower rainfallsites in northern Botswana to higher rainfall sites in northern Zambia. Key results Assembled field data inform core components of the proposed emissions reduction framework: fuel and combustion conditions sampled across the vegetation/productivity gradient can be represented by three defined Vegetation Fuel Types (VFTs); fuel accumulation, combustion and emissions parameters are presented for these. Applying this framework for an illustrative case, GHG emissions (t CO2-e) from EDS fires were one-third to half those of LDS fires per unit area in eligible miombo VFTs. Conclusions Our accounting framework supports undertaking EDS fire management to significantly reduce emissions and, realistically, burnt extent at landscape scales. We consider application of presented data to development of formal emissions abatement accounting methods, linkages with potential complementary woody biomass and soil organic carbon sequestration approaches, and necessary caveats concerning implementation issues.

Fire management across Australia's fire-prone 1.2 M km2 northern savannas region has been transformed over the past decade supported by the inception of Australia's national regulated emissions reduction market in 2012. Today, incentivised fire management is undertaken over a quarter of that entire region, providing a range of socio-cultural, environmental, and economic benefits, including for remote Indigenous (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander) communities and enterprises. Building on those advances, here we explore the emissions abatement potential for expanding incentivised fire management opportunities to include a contiguous fire-prone region, extending to monsoonal but annually lower (<600 mm) and more variable rainfall conditions, supporting predominantly shrubby spinifex (Triodia) hummock grasslands characteristic of much of Australia's deserts and semi-arid rangelands. Adapting a standard methodological approach applied previously for assessing savanna emissions parameters, we first describe fire regime and associated climatic attributes for a proposed similar to 850,000 km(2) lower rainfall (600-350 mm MAR) focal region. Second, based on regional field assessments of seasonal fuel accumulation, combustion, burnt area patchiness, and accountable methane and nitrous oxide Emission Factor parameters, we find that significant emissions abatement is feasible for regional hummock grasslands. This applies specifically for more frequently burnt sites under higher rainfall conditions if substantial early dry season prescribed fire management is undertaken resulting in marked reduction in late dry season wildfires. The pro-posed Northern Arid Zone (NAZ) focal envelope is substantially under Indigenous land ownership and man-agement, and in addition to reducing emissions impacts associated with recurrent extensive wildfires, development of commercial landscape-scale fire management opportunities would significantly support social, cultural and biodiversity management aspirations as promoted by Indigenous landowners. Combined with existing regulated savanna fire management regions, inclusion of the NAZ under existing legislated abatement methodologies would effectively provide incentivised fire management covering a quarter of Australia's land-mass. This could complement an allied (non-carbon) accredited method valuing combined social, cultural and biodiversity outcomes from enhanced fire management of hummock grasslands. Although the management approach has potential application to other international fire-prone savanna grasslands, caution is required to ensure that such practice does not result in irreversible woody encroachment and undesirable habitat change.

Tropical savannas and grasslands are the most frequently burned biome in the world, and fire constitutes an important part of the ecosystem. In this ecosystem it can have both rejuvenating and destructive effects, depending on several factors including fuel conditions, weather conditions, and time of year. For centuries humanity has used fire in these landscapes for hunting, land clearance, agriculture, and most recently carbon offsetting. Land managers in locations with a monsoonal climate and frequent fire regimes such as tropical savannas use prescribed burning as a management tool in the ‘early dry season’ (EDS) shortly after the last rains of the year. Fires at this time tend to be cooler, restricted to surface level and less severe, meaning they can be controlled more easily and tend to go out at night without external input. Commonly a specific, fixed date is used to indicate when this window of safe burning has expired, set based on experience of the local or regional authority. In this work, we have defined a method of determining when this window expires on the basis of active fire hotspot data from the twin MODIS instruments from 2001 through to 2021. By using the relationship between day and night-time active fire detections, we set a flexible date for the transition between the early and late dry seasons in fire-prone savannas globally in the five major tropical savanna regions - Northern & Southern hemisphere South America (NHSA & SHSA), Northern & Southern hemisphere Africa (NHAF & SHAF), and Australia (AUST). The variability across each region was high (lowest mean standard deviation annually was 24 days in NHAF and highest was 56 in AUST). The fraction of area burned in the late dry season ranged from 15% (SHSA) to as high as 85% (AUST) on average, with many parts of Africa and Australia especially showing a significant skew towards the late dry season. This suggests potential for implementation of prescribed burning programmes to increase the amount of desirable fire in the global savanna ecosystems.

Landscape fires, predominantly found in the frequently burning global savannas, are a substantial source of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The impact of these fires on atmospheric composition is partially determined by the chemical breakup of the constituents of the fuel into individual emitted chemical species, which is described by emission factors (EFs). These EFs are known to be dependent on, amongst other things, the type of fuel consumed, the moisture content of the fuel, and the meteorological conditions during the fire, indicating that savanna EFs are temporally and spatially dynamic. Global emission inventories, however, rely on static biome-averaged EFs, which makes them ill-suited for the estimation of regional biomass burning (BB) emissions and for capturing the effects of shifts in fire regimes. In this study we explore the main drivers of EF variability within the savanna biome and assess which geospatial proxies can be used to estimate dynamic EFs for global emission inventories. We made over 4500 bag measurements of CO2, CO, CH4, and N2O EFs using a UAS and also measured fuel parameters and fire-severity proxies during 129 individual fires. The measurements cover a variety of savanna ecosystems under different seasonal conditions sampled over the course of six fire seasons between 2017 and 2022. We complemented our own data with EFs from 85 fires with locations and dates provided in the literature. Based on the locations, dates, and times of the fires we retrieved a variety of fuel, weather, and fire-severity proxies (i.e. possible predictors) using globally available satellite and reanalysis data. We then trained random forest (RF) regressors to estimate EFs for CO2, CO, CH4, and N2O at a spatial resolution of 0.25∘ and a monthly time step. Using these modelled EFs, we calculated their spatiotemporal impact on BB emission estimates over the 2002–2016 period using the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires (GFED4s). We found that the most important field indicators for the EFs of CO2, CO, and CH4 were tree cover density, fuel moisture content, and the grass-to-litter ratio. The grass-to-litter ratio and the nitrogen-to-carbon ratio were important indicators for N2O EFs. RF models using satellite observations performed well for the prediction of EF variability in the measured fires with out-of-sample correlation coefficients between 0.80 and 0.99, reducing the error between measured and modelled EFs by 60 %–85 % compared to using the static biome average. Using dynamic EFs, total global savanna emission estimates for 2002–2016 were 1.8 % higher for CO, while CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions were, respectively, 0.2 %, 5 %, and 18 % lower compared to GFED4s. On a regional scale we found a spatial redistribution compared to GFED4s with higher CO, CH4, and N2O EFs in mesic regions and lower ones in xeric regions. Over the course of the fire season, drying resulted in gradually lower EFs of these species. Relatively speaking, the trend was stronger in open savannas than in woodlands, where towards the end of the fire season they increased again. Contrary to the minor impact on annual average savanna fire emissions, the model predicts localized deviations from static averages of the EFs of CO, CH4, and N2O exceeding 60 % under seasonal conditions.

Tropical savannas and grasslands are the most frequently burned biome in the world, and fire has an important role in sustaining ecosystem processes. Modern management of fires in savannas has roots in traditions stretching back centuries, and nowadays earth observation data is incorporated extensively in fire management practices. In tropical savannas in particular strongly seasonal monsoonal climates allow relatively low severity prescribed burning in the early part of the dry season (EDS) with the goal of preventing more destructive late dry season (LDS) fires. In many regional contexts it is common that a specific, fixed date is used officially to indicate when the window of safe burning has expired and the EDS transitions to the LDS, based on the experience of local or regional fire management authorities. This approach, while practical, neglects inter-annual variability in meteorological conditions and timing of onset of more dangerous fire weather. In this study, we pro-pose a remote sensing-based method for determining when this EDS window expires for five savanna-dominated continental-scale regions. By taking ad- vantage of the fact that conditions allowing night-time burning occur later in the dry season, we use day and night-time active fire detections from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments to set a flexible date of transition between the EDS and LDS. The vast majority of tropical savannas have very variable (std. dev. ≈ 20–40 days) transition dates, though this is somewhat modulated by fire frequency. Fuel connectivity rather than fuel condition appears to be a strong driving factor behind this variability. We find that especially national parks and protected areas have a high proportion of potentially more severe burning in the LDS, though areas with well-established EDS burning programmes are reducing this impact.

Roughly half of global fire emissions originate from savannas, and emission factors (EF) are used to quantify the amount of trace gases and aerosols emitted per unit dry matter burned. It is well known that these EFs vary substantially even within a single biome but so far quantifying their dynamics has been hampered by a lack of EF measurements. Therefore, global emission inventories currently use a static averaged EF for the entire savanna biome. To increase the spatiotemporal coverage of EF measurements, we collected over 4500 EF bag measurements of CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O using an unmanned aerial system (UAS) and measured fuel parameters and fire severity proxies during 129 individual landscape fires. These measurements spanned various widespread savanna ecosystems in Africa, South America and Australia, with early and late dry season campaigns. We trained random forest (RF) regressors to estimate daily dynamic EFs for CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O at 500×500-meter resolution based on satellite and reanalysis data. The RF models reduced the difference between measured and modelled EFs by 60-85% compared to static biome averages. The introduction of EF dynamics resulted in a spatial redistribution of CO, CH4 and N2O emissions compared to the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with higher emissions in higher rainfall savanna regions. While the impact from using dynamic EFs on the global annual emission estimates from savannas was relatively modest (+2% CO, -5% CH4 and -18% N2O), the impact on local EFs may exceed 60% under dry seasonal conditions.

Savanna fires occurring in sub-Saharan Africa account for over 60% of global fire extent, of which more than half occurs in the Southern Hemisphere contributing ~29% of global fire emissions. Building on experience in reducing savanna fire emissions in fire-prone north Australian savannas through implementation of an internationally accredited 'savanna burning' emissions abatement methodology, we explore opportunities and challenges associated with the application of a similar approach to incentivise emissions reduction in fire-prone southern African savannas. We first show that for a focal region covering seven contiguous countries, at least 80% of annual savanna large fire (>250 ha) extent and emissions occur under relatively severe late dry season (LDS) fire-weather conditions, predominantly in sparsely inhabited areas. We then assess the feasibility of adapting the Australian emissions abatement methodology through exploratory field studies at the Tsodilo Hills World Heritage site in north-west Botswana, and the Niassa Special Reserve in northern Mozambique. Our assessment demonstrates that application of a savanna burning emissions abatement method focused on the undertaking of strategically located early dry season (EDS) burning to reduce LDS wildfire extent and resultant emissions meets key technical criteria, including: LDS fine fuels tend to be markedly greater than EDS fuels given seasonal leaf litter inputs; LDS fires tend to be significantly more severe and combust more fuels; methane and nitrous oxide emission factors are essentially equivalent in EDS and LDS periods under cured fuel conditions. In discussion we consider associated key implementation challenges and caveats that need to be addressed for progressing development of savanna burning methods that incentivise sustainable fire management, reduce emissions, and support community livelihoods in wildfire-dominated southern African savannas.

Landscape fires are substantial sources of (greenhouse) gases and aerosols. Fires in savanna landscapes represent more than half of global fire carbon emissions. Quantifying emissions from fires relies on accurate burned area, fuel load and burning efficiency data. Of these, fuel load remains the source of the largest uncertainty. In this study, we used high spatial resolution images from an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) mounted multispectral camera, in combination with meteorological data from the ERA-5 land dataset, to model instantaneous pre-fire above-ground biomass. We constrained our model with ground measurements taken in two locations in savanna-dominated regions in Southern Africa, one low-rainfall region (660 mm year−1) in the North-West District (Ngamiland), Botswana, and one high-rainfall region (940 mm year−1) in Niassa Province (northern Mozambique). We found that for fine surface fuel classes (live grass and dead plant litter), the model was able to reproduce measured Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) (R2 of 0.91 and 0.77 for live grass and total fine fuel, respectively) across both low and high rainfall areas. The model was less successful in representing other classes, e.g., woody debris, but in the regions considered, these are less relevant to biomass burning and make smaller contributions to total AGB.