The Himalayan glaciers are vital indicators of global climate change, acting as sensitive barometers of environmental shifts occurring at both regional and global scales. Their stability is closely tied to fluctuations in temperature and precipitation patterns, making them particularly vulnerable to the ongoing impacts of global warming. In recent decades, accelerated glacial retreat has been observed across much of the Himalayan range, raising concerns over long-term water availability for millions of people who depend on these glaciers as a primary source of freshwater. This study investigates long-term climatic trends impacting the Himalayas using gridded observational data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU TS v4.07), from 1901 to 2020, and historical and future climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models (historical: 1901–2014; future: 2015–2100). CRU data indicate a mean annual temperature increase since the 1900s across many parts of the Himalaya. These trends are further substantiated by CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections, which, under low-emission (SSP1-1.9) to high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, project substantial regional warming by 2100 in high-altitude zones, particularly within the Greater Himalaya and the Trans-Himalayan ranges. The analysis reveals a significant warming and notable changes in snow amount, both of which have serious implications for glacier dynamics and regional hydrology. The climatic insights drawn from CRU and CMIP6 data point to an increased likelihood of glacier retreat and heightened risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), particularly under high-emission scenarios. These findings highlight the urgent need for improved climate monitoring, predictive modelling, and early warning systems to address the growing vulnerability of the Himalayan region to climate-induced hazards.

Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over western or northern India, they share some dynamical features with extratropical cyclones. WDs are most common during the boreal winter (December to March), during which they bring the majority of precipitation – both rain and snow – to the western Himalaya, as well as to surrounding areas of north India, Pakistan, and the Tibetan Plateau. WDs are also associated with weather hazards such as heavy snowfall, hailstorms, fog, cloudbursts, avalanches, frost, and cold waves. In this paper, we review recent developments in understanding WDs and their impacts. Over the last decade, recent studies have collectively made use of novel data, novel analysis techniques such as tracking algorithms, and the increasing availability of high-resolution weather and climate models. This review is separated into six main sections – structure and thermodynamics, precipitation and impacts, teleconnections, modelling experiments, forecasting at a range of scales, and paleoclimate and climate change – each motivated with a brief discussion of the accomplishments and limitations of previous research. A number of step changes in understanding are synthesised. Use of new modelling frameworks and tracking algorithms has significantly improved knowledge of WD structure and variability, and a more frequentist approach can now be taken. Improved observation systems have helped quantification of water security over the western Himalaya. Convection-permitting models have improved our understanding of how WDs interact with the Himalaya to trigger natural hazards. Improvements in paleoclimate and future climate modelling experiments have helped to explain how WDs and their impacts over the Himalaya respond to large-scale natural and anthropogenic forcings. We end by summarising unresolved questions and outlining key future WD research topics.

The west coast of India (WCI) is exceedingly vulnerable to global climate change impacts, with growing concerns about the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events in recent years. The present study used bias-corrected multi-model ensemble mean of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) from multiple CMIP6-GCMs under diverse shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for 2024–2050. In the near future—by 2050, the WCI is projected to witness significant pre-monsoon temperature increase of more than 2 °C under all SSPs, with SSP3-7.0 having high prominence, indicating frequent extreme weather events. Under SSP3-7.0, the mean surface air temperature over the WCI could increase by up to 2.7 °C during March through May (MAM) and by 2.1 °C from June to September (JJAS) in the near future. All SSP scenarios show rising temperature trends but at varying rates in different seasons and geographical areas, suggesting localized warming. The SST over the Arabian Sea near the WCI is expected to continue its upward trend from 1951 to 2022 into the projected period of 2024–2050, with an increase of 1.4 °C across all SSPs by 2050. Rising SST can alter wind patterns, affecting both the monsoon flow into the Indian subcontinent and the moisture transport, which could lead to more frequent and severe weather events across the region. Climate change projections point to an enhanced risk of extreme weather events over the WCI, requiring comprehensive strategies to address the multifaceted impacts on various sectors.

The large-scale convection during the Asian summer monsoon plays an important role in the rapid transport of boundary layer aerosols into the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone. Here, using the state-of-the-art ECHAM6–HAMMOZ aerosol-chemistry-climate model, we show that these aerosols are further transported to the Arctic along isentropic surfaces by the Brewer-Dobson-Circulation (BDC) during the monsoon season. Our model simulations show that East and South Asian anthropogenic emissions contribute significantly to the aerosol transported to the Arctic, which causes a higher negative net aerosol radiative forcing at the surface (dimming) of −0.09 ± 0.02 Wm−2 and −0.07 ± 0.02 Wm−2, respectively. Over the Arctic, the East Asian anthropogenic aerosols that include large amounts of sulfate cause a seasonal mean net radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) of −0.003 ± 0.001Wm−2 and a surface cooling of −0.56 K while the black carbon dominated aerosol from South Asia shows a positive TOA forcing of +0.004 ± 0.001Wm−2 with an only minor surface cooling of −0.043 K. Overall, the long-range transport of South Asian aerosols results in a notably warming throughout the atmospheric column but minimal temperature response at the Arctic surface. Conversely, East Asian aerosols cool the troposphere and heat the lower stratosphere in the Arctic. The Asian aerosol thus plays an ambivalent role, with the East Asian sources in particular having the potential to counteract the rapid rise in Arctic temperatures and the associated melting of snow and ice.

The rapid melting of glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) during recent decades poses an alarming threat to water security for larger parts of Asia. If this melting persists, the entirety of the Himalayan glaciers are estimated to disappear by end of the 21st century. Here, we assess the influence of the spring 2020 COVID-19 lockdown on the HKH, demonstrating the potential benefits of a strict emission reduction roadmap. Chemistry–climate model simulations, supported by satellite and ground measurements, show that lower levels of gas and aerosol pollution during lockdown led to changes in meteorology and to a reduction in black carbon in snow (2 %–14 %) and thus a reduction in snowmelt (10 %–40 %). This caused increases in snow cover (6 %–12 %) and mass (2 %–20 %) and a decrease in runoff (5 %–55 %) over the HKH and Tibetan Plateau, ultimately leading to an enhanced snow-equivalent water (2 %–55 %). We emphasize the necessity for immediate anthropogenic pollution reductions to address the hydro-climatic threat to billions of people in southern Asia.

This study investigates the projected changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) water vapor over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region based on satellite records, numerical simulations using variable-resolution global climate model focused over south Asia (HIST-natural and anthropogenic forcing in the historical period, and FUT-following RCP4.5 in future), and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets. The simulations generally reproduced the seasonal cycle in the UTLS water vapor and regional water vapor maximum. With progressive warming in future, excessive upper tropospheric moistening is noted over the ASM region in far-future (2070–2095) climate against the HIST climate (1980–2005) with water vapor mixing ratio increasing to 7.5 ppmv relative to 5 ppmv noted in the HIST. It is further noted that projected changes in water vapor are linked to anomalous warming ( 1–4 K) in the upper tropospheric layers juxtaposed with zonally elongated ASM anticyclone and enhanced water vapor flux divergence by amplifications in rotational winds. Further, the simulations indicate robust increase in ASM upper tropospheric water vapor as compared to those at mid- and lower- troposphere in accordance with the Clausius–Clapeyron temperature dependence of moisture response to warming and amplified troposphere warming with altitude. A simple comparison between the ASM and the entire globe indicates that upper tropospheric water vapor-temperature relationship has a similar response, however, the projected variability in temperature and moisture is significantly larger (about twice) over the ASM region highlighting strong regional influence. Nonetheless, the projections indicate that ASM is a potential regional source in modulating UTLS water vapor budget in a warming climate.

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the primary process of water transfer in the hydrological cycle over land and is linked to water, energy and carbon cycles. While the global hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in a warming climate with enhanced ET and precipitation, the magnitude and spatial distribution of regional scale response of ET to climate change remains uncertain. Here we present an analysis of in-situ observations of ET from 23 stations in India during 1979-2008, which shows that the annual ET has declined by about 9% over the humid sub-regions of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Additional analysis from high-resolution climate model simulations and observed climate datasets lend support to the role of aerosol-induced solar-dimming in intensifying ET reductions, in a background of decreasing monsoon precipitation and soil-moisture levels, over the IGP

This study addresses the role of human-induced climate change on the interactions of convective activities between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific (WNP) regions - an important scientific issue which has been hitherto overlooked. We have examined this problem using two numerical experiments of a high-resolution climate model, with and without anthropogenic forcing (i.e., HIST and HISTNAT) for the historical period 1951–2005, supplemented by innovative diagnostics like causal network analysis. Our findings suggest that an anthropogenically-forced weakening of the ISM circulation tends to significantly enhance the genesis potential index (GPI) of the WNP tropical cyclones by 13.5% and associated convective activities, by reorienting the large-scale flow over the tropical Indo-Pacific in a manner that is conducive for enhancement of the WNP tropical cyclogenesis. Additionally, it is found that the probability of extremely low sea-level pressure (SLP) (<995.5 hPa) around Taiwan and Chinese mainland is significantly higher by 10.3% in the anthropogenically-forced simulation as compared to the natural run. Using the model outputs from HIST and HISTNAT, we also performed a causal effect network (CEN) analysis to understand the causal connections among the three indices involved in the ISM-WNP interactions (a) Indian monsoon circulation index (IMI) which is the difference in the area-averaged 850 hPa zonal winds between the boxes (40oE-80oE, 5oN-15oN) and (70oE-90oE, 20oN-30oN) (b) WNP tropical cyclone activity expressed as the genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the region (120oE-180oE, 5oN-30oN) and (c) Tropical Indo-Pacific wind index (IPWND) which is based on the 850 hPa zonal winds averaged over the domain (100oE-130oE, 5oN-20oN). Results from the CEN analysis indicate that an anthropogenically-forced weakening of the IMI can lead to possible strengthening of GPI and IPWND with time-lags of 5 and 7 days, respectively. In general, it is noted that the causal relationships among IMI, GPI and IPWND are associated with shorter time-lags (∼4–9 days) in HIST and longer time-lags (∼19–28 days) in HISTNAT.

AbstractThe West North Pacific (WNP) is a breeding ground for tropical cyclones (TC) all through the year with peak activity during August-September, in contrast to the North Indian Ocean where tropical cyclones (TC) are observed mainly during April-June and October-December but suppressed in July-August due to the strong vertical wind shear of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Interannual variations in the WNP tropical cyclones (typhoons) are known to be closely linked to El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with higher number of typhoons forming during El Nino phases as compared to La Nina; however the response of WNP typhoon to human-induced climate change is not well understood. Here, we compare two sets of high-resolution climate model simulations for the historical period 1951-2005 viz., HIST [includes both natural (solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols) and anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gasses (GHG), aerosols and land use land cover changes)] and HISTNAT (natural-only forcing) to understand the influence of climate change on the ISM and WNP typhoon activity. It is found that an anthropogenically-forced weakening of the ISM circulation, largely due to the influence of Northern Hemispheric aerosols which oppose the GHG forcing, tends to significantly enhance the genesis potential of WNP typhoons. Our results suggest that a forced weakening of the ISM circulation reorients the large-scale flow over the tropical Indo-Pacific in a manner that is conducive for enhanced WNP typhoon genesis through enrichment of low-level relative vorticity, while the intensified mid-latitude westerlies over the Far East and North Pacific region steer the WNP typhoons to move northward with recurving tracks. Additionally the area of extremely low sea-level pressure (SLP) around Taiwan and mainland China is substantially larger in the anthropogenically- forced simulation as compared to the natural run.

The high level of aerosol pollution in South Asia has a measurable impact on clouds, radiation, and precipitation. Here, exploring multiple observational data sets and simulations of the state-of-the-art ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry-climate model, we report that the reduction in anthropogenic emissions during the COVID-19 lockdown period has enhanced precipitation by 5–25% over India. This precipitation enhancement is the result of the combined effect of an enhancement in cloud cover, a reduction in aerosol induced cloud invigoration and dynamical changes. We observed that the increase in cloud cover was associated with a reduction in cloud base height and an increase in the effective radius of cloud particles which led to an increase in cloud water content. In response to sudden emission reduction, an anomalous northward moisture transport was observed adding convection and precipitation over the Indian region. Importantly, we show that there is an advantage of anthropogenic pollution reduction for water availability in addition to benefits of air quality, human health, and crop yield.

Northern Hemispheric summer monsoons were more intense during the mid-Holocene (MH 6000 years ago) and coincided with a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to the pre-industrial (PI) climate. Ancient civilizations in the Indus valley, Mesopotamia, and Egypt appear to have flourished during this period, thanks to abundant water availability. This study exploits a high-resolution variable grid global atmosphere model to understand the role of orbital forcing and ocean surface conditions in strengthening the monsoons and shifting the ITCZ northward over Africa, India, and East Asia during the MH. The combined impact of orbital forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions led to a change in monsoon rainfall of around 42, 30, 21, and 41

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is vital for the livelihood of millions of people in the Indian region; droughts caused by monsoon failures often resulted in famines. Large volcanic eruptions have been linked with reductions in ISMR, but the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. Here, using 145-year (1871–2016) records of volcanic eruptions and ISMR, we show that ISMR deficits prevail for two years after moderate and large (VEI > 3) tropical volcanic eruptions; this is not the case for extra-tropical eruptions. Moreover, tropical volcanic eruptions strengthen El Niño and weaken La Niña conditions, further enhancing Indian droughts. Using climate-model simulations of the 2011 Nabro volcanic eruption, we show that eruption induced an El Niño like warming in the central Pacific for two consecutive years due to Kelvin wave dissipation triggered by the eruption. This El Niño like warming in the central Pacific led to a precipitation reduction in the Indian region. In addition, solar dimming caused by the volcanic plume in 2011 reduced Indian rainfall.

Earth System Models (ESM) are important tools that allow us to understand and quantify the physical, chemical&biological mechanisms governing the rates of change of elements of the Earth System, comprising of the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere and biosphere (terrestrial and marine) and related components. ESMs are essentially coupled numerical models which incorporate processes within and across the different Earth system components and are expressed as set of mathematical equations. ESMs are useful for enhancing our fundamental understanding of the climate system, its multi-scale variability, global and regional climatic phenomena and making projections of future climate change. In this chapter, we briefly describe the salient aspects of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology ESM (IITM ESM), that has been developed recently at the IITM, Pune, India, for investigating long-term climate variability and change with focus on the South Asian monsoon.

Accumulation of water vapor in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) over the Asian continent is a recognized feature during the boreal summer monsoon. While there has been a debate on the role of monsoon convective intensities on the UT/LS water vapor accumulations, there are ambiguities with regard to the effects of organized monsoon convection on the spatial distribution of water vapor. We provide insights into this aspect using high precision balloon measurements of water vapor from a high-elevation site Nainital (29.4° N, 79.5° E), India, located in the Himalayan foothills and satellite retrievals of water vapor from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). We also use precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite (i.e., merged product 3B42 and precipitation radar 3A25 estimates of rain rate and rain type viz convective/stratiform), reanalysis circulation data, as well as numerical model simulations. We first evaluate the MLS estimates of water vapor mixing ratios with in situ high precision hygrometer balloon observations over Nainital. It is seen from our analyses of the MLS data that the LS water vapor distribution is closely linked to the organization of the South Asian monsoon convection and its influence on the UT/LS circulation. This link between LS water vapor distribution and organized monsoon convection is also captured in the in situ observations on 3 August 2016. It is evidenced that periods of organized summer monsoon convective activity over the Indian subcontinent and Bay of Bengal promote divergence of water vapor flux in the UT/LS; additionally the Tibetan anticyclonic circulation causes widespread distribution of the UT/LS water vapor. In addition to the effects of Asian monsoon convection, we also note that global climate drivers such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) can contribute to nearly 38% of the UT/LS water vapor variability over the Asian monsoon region. The main result of our study indicates that widespread spatial distribution and accumulation of water vapor in the LS (about 80% of total accumulation between May and August months) tend to co-occur with organized monsoon convection, intensified divergence of water vapor flux in the UT/LS and intensified Tibetan anticyclone. On the other hand, the circulation response and LS water vapor distribution to pre-monsoon localized deep convection tend to have a limited spatial scale confined to Southeast Asia. Results from model experiments suggest that the UT/LS circulation pattern to organized monsoon convection has resemblance to stationary Rossby waves forced by organized latent heating, with the westward extending response larger by about 15° longitudes as compared to that of the pre-monsoon localized deep convection.

Aerosol concentrations over Asia play a key role in modulating the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Lockdown measures imposed to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial reductions in observed Asian aerosol loadings. Here, we use bottom-up estimates of anthropogenic emissions based on national mobility data from Google and Apple, along with simulations from the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ state-of-the-art aerosol-chemistry-climate model to investigate the impact of the reduced aerosol and gases pollution loadings on the ISM. We show that the decrease in anthropogenic emissions led to a 4 W m−2 increase in surface solar radiation over parts of South Asia, which resulted in a strengthening of the ISM. Simultaneously, while natural emission parameterizations are kept the same in all our simulations, the anthropogenic emission reduction led to changes in the atmospheric circulation, causing accumulation of dust over the Tibetan plateau (TP) during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. This accumulated dust has intensified the warm core over the TP that reinforced the intensification of the Hadley circulation. The associated cross-equatorial moisture influx over the Indian landmass led to an enhanced amount of rainfall by 4% (0.2 mm d−1) over the Indian landmass and 5%–15% (0.8–3 mm d−1) over central India. These estimates may vary under the influence of large-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean oscillations (e.g. El Nino Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole). Our study indicates that the reduced anthropogenic emissions caused by the unprecedented COVID-19 restrictions had a favourable effect on the hydrological cycle over South Asia, which has been facing water scarcity during the past decades. This emphasizes the need for stringent measures to limit future anthropogenic emissions in South Asia for protecting one of the world’s most densely populated regions.

Assessments of impacts of climate change and future projections over the Indian region, have so far relied on a single regional climate model (RCM) - eg., the PRECIS RCM of the Hadley Centre, UK. While these assessments have provided inputs to various reports (e.g., INCCA 2010; NATCOMM2 2012), it is important to have an ensemble of climate projections drawn from multiple RCMs due to large uncertainties in regional-scale climate projections. Ensembles of multi-RCM projections driven under different perceivable socio-economic scenarios are required to capture the probable path of growth, and provide the behavior of future climate and impacts on various biophysical systems and economic sectors dependent on such systems. The Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (CCCR-IITM) has generated an ensemble of high resolution downscaled projections of regional climate and monsoon over South Asia until 2100 for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)using a RCM (ICTP-RegCM4) at 50 km horizontal resolution, by driving the regional model with lateral and lower boundary conditions from multiple global atmosphere-ocean coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The future projections are based on three Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (viz., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) of the IPCC.

In this chapter, we discuss climate variability over the Western Himalaya based on instrumental records as well as information derived from tree-ring data. We focus here on two important climatological elements, namely rainfall and temperature of Western Himalayan region. Trend analyses of rainfall based on 14 stations covering entire western Himalayan region from Kashmir to Uttarakhanda indicate different patterns of rainfall variability. The database does not show any coherent patterns among the stations and does not indicate any significant trend during the twentieth century. Data on temperature show overall warming mainly contributed by maximum temperature. Most of the stations indicate significant increasing trends in maximum temperature for all the seasons. Cooling trend is observed mostly in minimum temperature of some stations for different seasons. Annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature series of all the stations indicate significant warming except slight cooling in minimum temperature of Deheradun, Mukteswar and Mussoorie. Climate projections for twenty-first century also indicate warming over the entire Himalayan region with significant warming in Tibetan plateau, and increasing trend in summer precipitation over the central Himalayan region including Nepal and Tibetan Plateau. Dendroclimatic reconstructions give some information about summer climate conditions since past several centuries. They indicate some cool epochs associated with Little Ice Age (LIA). It is also seen that high altitude near glacier tree-ring records would be the potential source of information on long-term temperature variability and glacier fluctuations. Overall warming trends noted in different parts of the western Himalaya may be linked partially to global warming trends and rapid urbanization of the hill stations were the observatories are located.

Ozone in the upper troposphere is a dominant radiative constituent. In this study, we investigate ozone variability due to stratospheric intrusions in the upper troposphere over India, and its associated radiative impacts during monsoon breaks co-occurring with El Niño. For this purpose, we use the ECHAM5-HAMMOZ, Global-Chemistry-climate model simulations, and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Our analysis shows that during El Niño deep stratospheric intrusions, occurring at the North India - Tibetan Plateau (NI-TP) region and the western edge of the monsoon anticyclone, lead to an enormous increase in ozone amounts (~160 ppb) in the upper troposphere over India. These intrusions elevate the surface ozone levels by ~20 ppb and ozone radiative forcing by ~0.33 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Interestingly, the stratospheric intrusions are associated with a wave train composed of cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere, emanating from El-Niño region in the east Pacific, traversing towards NI-TP locale. The wave train transports extra-tropical cold air mass, producing an anomalous cooling of ~2 - 3 K in the upper troposphere over NI-TP. The cold wave train induces Rossby wave breaking (RWB), which facilitates stratospheric intrusions, thereby enhancing subsidence over NI-TP region. Additionally, this severe cold subsidence over North India during break days may further intensify the deficit rainfall condition during break days.