Estimation of the risk posed by inland fluvial floods to critical linear transportation infrastructures requires quantifying the damage inflicted by flooding on roads and railways. The estimated risk is often quantified in terms of the Expected Annual Damage [EAD] of the given linear structure. The aim of this article is to shed light on the estimation of this number and its uncertainty. The damage function models, which describe the degree of damage given flood intensity, represent a source of uncertainty. In this article we argue that this uncertainty needs to be embedded with a correlation structure in order to be evaluated for aggregated values. To this end, a novel methodology based on the use of Gaussian Processes to model the uncertainty associated with the damage function is introduced. Assuming a spatial correlation structure, parameterized by the so called decorrelation length scale, this framework is applied to estimate the EAD to roads in Portugal. The study shows that the application of an appropriate decorrelation length scale is decisive to the estimated uncertainty of the EAD. The proposed methodology may also be applicable to other types of hazards, if represented by some hazard intensity parameter associated with a damage function.

A prototype tool (DynEcon) for dynamic societal cost benefit analyses was used to produce simple estimates of future costs of traffic disruption caused by one or more rail and road bridge failures from 100-year flooding(s) in the Santarem Region. The focus was on quantification of different types of consequences. A project period until year 2100 was chosen to include adverse events in the far future. Future private and professional vehicle flows before and after disruptions were calculated for 36 scenarios considering declining rural and semi-rural populations destinations and increasing GDP over time. Potential cascading effects from detours and mode transfer at future time points were estimated. The additional fuel and vehicle costs for personal cars and trucks, time losses for professional and private drivers, and external costs for rural and semi-rural population subjected to increased traffic were estimated. The sizes of these costs, depend on the size and composition of the vehicle fleets at time of each disruption. Local and global emissions from fossil fuels the next twenty years will be reduced as the older most polluting vehicles in the vehicle fleets are phased out and newer vehicles must satisfy even more stringent emission and design standards. In addition, EC greening policies and electrification will reduce the amounts of combustion related pollutants dramatically. Prices of Diesel and Petrol were assumed to increase over time. The costs of accidents have decreased due to improved protection from the vehicles and is predicted to continue to decrease due to more intelligent vehicles and smart road infra-structure. Noise, air-pollution due to road wear, and road maintenance costs per km were assumed to remain stable. Costs of CO2-emissions and time delay costs of private and professional drivers were modelled as increasing over time. The additional disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) from local air pollution and noise, were estimated using exposure effect relationships and DALY impact estimates from WHO. A monetary DALY-value was assigned, and the sum costs calculated. To harmonize cost estimates for Portugal having a lower GDP than Norway, costs were scaled down.The dynamic cost benefit tool applies Monte Carlo simulations in a two-step procedure. In the first step a population of e.g. 1000 sets of 100-year flooding events occurring between 2021 and 2100 are generated using knowledge on climate change, flooding characteristics, scour etc. Future annual costs until 2100 are generated using growth models. Since all parameters and growth models are associated with uncertainties, the second step derives the uncertainty distribution of economic result indicators and confidence intervals. An online web-based Monte Carlo framework such as DynEcon could enable researchers to cooperate on different parts of the patchwork necessary for analyses of resilience policies that include hazards occurring late century.

Cross-sectorial and cross-disciplinary collaboration, as well as public-private partnerships are necessary to handle the complexity of climate adaptation. The Research Council of Norway has established the Centres for Research-based Innovation (CRI) in which research- and education organizations, public entities and private enterprises join forces in 8-year long collaborations. CRI-Klima 2050 focuses on climate adaptation of buildings and infrastructure and runs several pilot projects to innovate new solutions for building resilience, stormwater- and landslide risk management. Several of the major infrastructure owners in Norway are partners in the centre. Norway is increasingly affected by precipitation triggered landslides. Klima 2050 pilot projects on landslide risk reduction include a web-based toolbox for prioritizing and choosing optimal mitigation measures, including Nature-Based Solutions, improved early warning systems and mitigation measures for slope instability, and improved local warning for hazardous weather systems, all developed in close collaboration between centre partners from different sectors and disciplines. The results of these projects can all be upscaled and are transferable to other infrastructure elements.

Efficient and secure transport networks ensure transportation of goods and people as well as access to essential services such as education, health care and emergency services. Natural hazardous events such as e.g., storms, floods, erosion, landslides, and forest fires might lead to disturbances in road and rail transport lines. The infrastructure users are then left with the choices of postponing or cancelling the trip, taking a detour, changing the mode of transport, or changing the travel destination. The work described in this abstract proposes strategies for assessment of indirect consequences of extreme events affecting road transport. Functional vulnerability functions, expressing the probability of service disruption as a function of event intensity, are useful in the consequence assessment. The main portion of indirect consequences of a road service disruption stem from additional travel time for the users. The indirect economic consequences depend on the duration and the severity (e.g., full/partial closure) of the service disruption, the quality and capacity of the alternative transportation routes or alternative modes of transportation as well as the traffic volume, traffic composition and the time values related to the users in the affected network. A case study is provided for simplified assessment of the indirect consequences of flooding on roads in Portugal. The analysis is conducted at a regional scale and is performed within a GIS environment. The road network was subdivided into links, defined as continuous road segments without opportunities for detours. Flooding of one link would lead to a service disruption within the road network. The flood risk for the exposed links was analyzed as a function of the return period of the flooding, the flood intensities, and the expected duration of the service disruption. Flood hazard maps for different return periods (10-year, 100-year, and 500-year) were combined with a functional vulnerability model relating the flood intensity (flood depth and flood velocity) to a service disruption duration. The case study categorizes the risk into 3 classes: low, medium and high. For a quantitative risk assessment, the risk classes need to be expressed using a quantitative parameter. Each risk class was quantified as the product of the probability of the flooding, the duration of the service disruption and unit costs of a service disruption. This allows the presentation of risk in terms of expected annual indirect costs associated with flooding. The research leading to these results receives funding from the European Community’s H2020 Program MG-7-1-2017 Resilience to extreme (natural and man-made) events, under Grant Agreement number: 769255 - "GIS-based infrastructure management system for optimized response to extreme events of terrestrial transport networks (SAFEWAY)". The work is also funded by the Research Council of Norway through the Centre for Research-based innovation KLIMA2050.

Keeping transport links open in adverse conditions and being able to restore connections quickly after extreme events are important and demanding tasks for infrastructure owners/operators. This paper is developed within the H2020 project SAFEWAY, whose main goal is to increase the resilience of terrestrial transportation infrastructure. Risk-based approaches are excellent tools to aid in the decision-making process of planning maintenance and implementation of risk mitigation measures with the ultimate goal of reducing risk and increasing resilience. This paper presents a framework for quantitative risk assessment which guides an integrated assessment of the risk components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability and consequences of a malfunctioning transportation infrastructure. The paper guides the identification of failure modes for transportation infrastructure exposed to extreme events (natural and human-made) and provides models for and examples of hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment. Each assessment step must be made in coherence with the other risk components as an integral part of the risk assessment.

Linear critical infrastructures are fundamental for functioning of the society and for generating everyday economic activities. Maintenance of these infrastructures, as well as quick restoration of the services after service disruption are important and challenging tasks. Extreme weather events and related hazards (e.g. floods, erosion, landslides, and forest fires) may lead to a malfunctioning of these infrastructures, resulting in social and economic consequences.A wide variety of methods are applicable for consequence assessment of linear infrastructure. A review and summary of existing methodologies has been made and recommendations for their use are provided. The review encompasses semi-quantitative approaches (e.g. multi-criteria analysis and indicator-based scoring approaches) and quantitative approaches, using damage assessment and economic impact tools. The approaches might be hazard specific, addressing the interaction between the hazard and the infrastructure assets or focus on the societal consequences of the malfunctioning infrastructure. In this work, special attention is paid to the assessment of the infrastructure service disruption as well as of physical damage to the linear infrastructures.A framework for risk assessments of adverse weather-related events affecting terrestrial transportation lines has been established. The framework can be also applied to other linear infrastructure, such as water and electric power supply. The framework encompasses risk identification and assessment of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and consequences. In the risk identification, modes of malfunctioning of the infrastructure service are identified, as well as natural triggering events initiating the malfunctioning. Hazard encompasses frequency and intensity of the triggering events and is assessed at the location of the exposed infrastructure assets. The event intensity, is a parameter (single or composite) characterizing the damaging potential of a natural event, e.g. the water depth or velocity for flood. Vulnerability models represent the functional loss, the damage degree or the exceedance probability of damage levels pertinent to an infrastructure asset, expressed in terms of event intensity. For further consequence assessment, the criticality of assets need to be assessed, e.g. by using an event tree approach to analyse the relation between asset damage and service disruption. The indirect consequences depend on redundancy (multiple paths of supply) and robustness, but also on the capacity to restore functionality in a timely way (rapidity) as well as on the resources available to restore functionality (resourcefulness). Economic consequences (direct and indirect losses) due to weather-related events have been evaluated for transportation infrastructures, considering material damage caused by flooding as well as consequences for the users stemming from the interruption of the transportation service.The described work receives funding from the European Community’s H2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 769255 (SAFEWAY). The sole responsibility for the content of this abstract lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union. The work is also funded by the Research Council of Norway through the Centre for Research-based innovation KLIMA2050.

The number of natural disasters and the economic damage have dramatically increased in the last three decades. The reason can be ascribed to the increase in number and intensity of events due to climate change and continuous urbanization in areas often exposed to natural hazards. Roads and railways are important infrastructures ensuring social and commercial exchanges within and among nations. In our changing environment, infrastructures are more often exposed to different types of natural hazard, such as: floods, landslides, heatwaves, earthquakes and wildfires. The impacts generated may encompass accidents, damages to infrastructure assets, delays and malfunctioning of the transportation network, resulting in economic and social consequences. Climate changes can lead to an escalation of such negative impacts of natural hazards if no counter-measures are taken. The first step in risk reduction of natural and weather-related adverse events is to identify the infrastructures exposed and the different natural hazards threatening them. A review of the available natural hazards databases at European scale has been carried out. An increased number of universities, governmental and research institutions have focused their attention, in the last decade, on natural hazards analysis and mapping. Numerous EU projects have also been founded on this topic and, several databases dealing with different natural hazards have been produced, so far. A review analysis of all open source databases available through internet has been carried out at a European level. The review gathered maps that allow the visualization of weather parameters and natural hazards in a GIS environment. The main natural hazards investigated were: floods, landslides, earthquakes, wildfires and heatwaves. Moreover, a specific focus has been payed to the following demonstration sites in the SAFEWAY project: Andalucia and Murcia regions in Spain; and Santarem, Leiria, Coimbra regions in Portugal. For each of them, the most critical hazards have been considered: floods and wildfires in Portugal; and floods, wildfires and heatwaves in Spain. For these location and hazard types, the availability of national and regional databases was investigated. If those databases were not available, the one at European scale was considered for the analyses. The most exposed parts of the transportation system were mapped by overlapping hazard maps with the railway and road tracks in a GIS environment. The information on the different infrastructures (railways and primary, secondary and tertiary roads) are provided by Open Street Map for each nation. The overlapping highlights the infrastructures "hot-spots" for different natural hazards. The research leading to these and future results receives funding from the European Community’s H2020 Programme MG-7-1-2017 Resilience to extreme (natural and man-made) events, under Grant Agreement number: 769255 - "GIS-based infrastructure management system for optimized response to extreme events of terrestrial transport networks (SAFEWAY, https://www.safeway-project.eu/en)".

Our modern society relies on well-functioning transport systems providing mobility, transport safety and regularity. Maintaining the operational state of roads and railways during extreme weather events or other natural events is an important and demanding task. Natural events may cause damage to transportation assets, which can immediately or over time result in functional loss of a transportation line. For instance, a reduced culvert capacity due to debris deposition and clogging, could cause flooding of a road/rail. Some natural events can lead directly to loss of service, even without damaging an asset, like the occurrence of avalanches on a transportation line, blocking the related traffic. To reduce risks of failures posed by natural hazards, it is essential to assess vulnerability of transportation networks to such events.A well-established way to analyse vulnerability is to use damage-, loss- or fragility functions. Such functions can express both functional vulnerability, representing the functional loss for a transportation line, and structural vulnerability representing damage degree or the exceedance probability of damage levels pertinent to a transportation asset. These functions can all be expressed in terms of event intensity, which is a parameter characterizing the damaging potential of a natural event.In order to analyse functional vulnerability, various asset types with their interdependencies i.e. network topology and geographical coincidence must be considered. Here, the applied damage and fragility functions for evaluating structural vulnerability must account for location specific data on assets and asset properties. The review of existing damage-, loss- and fragility functions showed that these are not sufficient for intended analysis and need to be updated to consider various natural events and related failure modes. Recommendations are provided on how to elaborate new damage-, loss- and fragility functions to overcome a large number of uncertainties related to impacts of natural events on infrastructure and account for resistance of infrastructure. These recommendations concern both the choice of intensity parameters for different types of hazards and definition of possible failure modes, the methods for developing the functions and the assessment of the relationship between structural vulnerability of the asset and functional vulnerability.The research leading to these and future results receives funding from the European Community’s H2020 Programme MG-7-1-2017 Resilience to extreme (natural and man-made) events, under Grant Agreement number: 769255 - "GIS-based infrastructure management system for optimized response to extreme events of terrestrial transport networks (SAFEWAY)".

On contract from a newly established road company in Norway, Nye Veier AS, a consortium of natural scientists and social scientists have carried out an early planning stage risk analysis from natural hazards for a series of new roads in Norway. An aim of the study was to establish methods and tools that the client could use relatively easily in their own premises and that could serve as a useful tool in design of the roads, including final selection of the route. Firstly, a GIS-based tool was developed to perform a first screening of corridors around the proposed road. Hazards analysed included snow avalanches, rock falls, debris flows- and slides, landslides in sensitive ('quick') clays, floods, storm surges, strong winds and snow drift. In this phase we mainly used susceptibility maps and other data available on the internet. However, some of these are very conservative, and various methods of optimization have been performed in the analyses. After ground truthing of selected results of the GIS analyses, by field work, and by comparing with hazard maps based on previous field work, the GIS tool was installed in the client's premises and is currently being used by them. Secondly, field work was carried out based on the results from the GIS screening. Identified higher-hazard segments were inspected, and key parameters, such as probability, length of closure in case of an event, type and cost of mitigation measure, and suggestions for potential re-routing were recorded in the field. Some of the hazard segments identified by the GIS analyses could also be called off from the field work. Results from the field work were standardized to the degree possible, e.g. in cost classes for mitigation measures, duration classes for closure time, etc. Consequence and risk analyses were carried out based on the results of the combined GIS screening and field work. The consequences were estimated in two classes; a) Indirect Economic Consequence of a closed road, based on traffic density and type, the probable duration of closure, and the re-routing possibilities, and b) the consequences regarding emergency actions, i.e. the location of critical infrastructure (hospitals, fire stations, etc.) and the possibility for emergency vehicles to pass. Climate change was considered mostly for the hazards that are directly connected to precipitation. For these a 'climate factor' was added based on the regional scenarios for 2100. To ensure optimal communication of results to the client, the main delivery is a digital, GIS-based product. Hazard, consequence, and risk are marked in colours along the planned roads. By clicking on individual hazard segments, a comprehensive fact sheet appears with all available information, comments and numbers collected through the whole process. This includes also field comments, and a risk diagram, where also the estimated risk at year 2100 is indicated. The work has been done in close interaction with the client, to ensure the most readily usable tool for them in present and future road projects.

Intense rainfall and flood are known to be the principal natural cause of onshore landslides. Early warning systems are in place to minimize negative effects of landslides surveying natural hazard events, damages and emergency response actions. The focus of this study is to improve the early warning landslides systems and associated systems and components, including resource management, environmental impact analysis, and environmental planning. This study is part of the main project "Klima 2050" that aims to the reduction of the societal risks associated with climate changes and enhanced precipitation and flood water exposure within the built environment. This paper infers on the applicability and suitability to some forensic analysis techniques to specific landslides events and to early warning landslides systems, conducting forensic analysis based on detailed damage information collected by the information system after event occurrence.

In recent years, flow-like landslides have extensively affected pyroclastic covers in the Campania region in southern Italy, causing human suffering and conspicuous economic damages. Due to the high criticality of the area, a proper assessment of future variations in event occurrences due to expected climate changes is crucial. The study assesses the temporal variation in flow-like landslide hazard for a section of the A3 Salerno–Napoli motorway, which runs across the toe of the Monte Albino relief in the Nocera Inferiore municipality. Hazard is estimated spatially depending on (1) the likelihood of rainfall-induced event occurrence within the study area and (2) the probability that the any specific location in the study area will be affected during the runout. The probability of occurrence of an event is calculated through the application of Bayesian theory. Temporal variations due to climate change are estimated up to the year 2100 through an ensemble of high-resolution climate projections, accounting for current uncertainties in the characterization of variations in rainfall patterns. Reach probability, or defining the probability that a given spatial location is affected by flow-like landslides, is calculated spatially based on a distributed empirical model. The outputs of the study predict substantial increases in occurrence probability over time for two different scenarios of future socioeconomic growth and atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.

The effectiveness of landslide risk management should be assessed to optimize the implementation of landslide risk mitigation measures. The Risk Management Index (RMI) of Cardona et al. (Disaster risk and risk management benchmarking: a methodology based on indicators at national level. IDB/IDEA Program on Indicators for Disaster Risk Management, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales, p 101, 2004) provides useful procedures to holistically measure perceptions of risk management for natural hazards from selected actors. This paper uses Norway as a case study to present a modified RMI for surveying perceptions of landslide risk management at two time scenarios: 2015 (present) and 2050 (future), and for various administrative levels: national, county, and municipality. All survey respondents are practitioners in landslide risk management in Norway. The survey results are able to reflect some viewpoints of these experts on landslide risk management in Norway. Factors considered for assessing the future performance of landslide risk management by respondents are also studied to understand how respondents project their expectations. This paper also demonstrates how areas of improvement in landslide risk management in Norway can be identified based on the survey results. Due to limited responses, limited knowledge of respondents and the subjective nature of perceptions, the survey results are associated with uncertainties and should thus be used with care. Upon simplification of technical terms, the survey can be applied to survey public perceptions. The survey can also be regarded as a starting point for developing a common language/terminology for landslide risk management in Norway. This research activity has been funded by the Norwegian Centre of Innovation Klima 2050 (www.klima2050.no).

Factors which contribute to the vulnerability of physical elements such as road infrastructures to a natural hazard such as a flood event are pervaded by uncertainty due to the complexity of the hazard, of the vulnerable infrastructure and of their physical interaction. In the context of risk management efforts, it is conceptually correct to explicitly address this uncertainty and to parameterize the criticality of the vulnerable element and, consequently, an explicit target degree of conservatism and reliability in risk assessment and mitigation strategies. This paper illustrates the results of the probabilistic characterization of the vulnerability of road infrastructures to flood events for two areas in South-Eastern Norway. Flood intensity and road vulnerability serve as inputs to an analytical model, which expresses the latter as a function of the former with respect to a user-set level of probability of exceedance. Deterministic and probabilistic vulnerability estimates are compared quantitatively, and the results are assessed and analyzed critically.