针对2018年9月17日发生在广东省佛山市的一次台风龙卷过程,对比分析了 EnKF和变分方法同化X波段相控阵雷达得到的风场结构.结果表明,EnKF方法和变分方法在同化了X波段相控阵雷达资料之后,都可以得到龙卷母体风暴的涡旋特征.相比之下,EnKF同化分析的涡旋强度更强,台风龙卷母体风暴及其周边三维风场的结构更加完整,与回波结构匹配更好.变分方法同化得到的流场不够连续,台风龙卷母体风暴的涡旋强度偏弱,弱回波区入流也明显偏弱,并不符合概念模型.而两种方法在没有同化相控阵雷达数据时,都无法产生龙卷母体风暴的流场特征.总体而言,相对于变分方法,EnKF同化系统在同化X波段相控阵雷达数据后可以产生更为合理的涡旋结构,台风龙卷母体风暴及其周边动力场结构更合理,这为以后X波段相控阵雷达的业务应用提供了思路.

Abstract The impact of assimilating China's operational X‐band Phased‐Array radar's (X‐PAR) data on the analysis and warning forecast of the vortex structure and intensity of the June 8, 2018 Foshan, Guangdong province, tornadic storm was investigated for the first time using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation system. Both radar radial velocity (Vr) and reflectivity (Z) from two S‐band operational radars and one X‐PAR were assimilated. Deterministic forecasts were launched every 6 min from 05:42 UTC (20 min before the tornado touched down) to 06:00 UTC from the EnKF mean analysis field. Five experiments were conducted to examine the added capability of Z assimilation of the EnKF system, and to investigate the impact of assimilating X‐PAR data on the analysis and prediction of the tornadic storm. Compared to the experiment without Z assimilation, the assimilation of Z reduced the analysis error and greatly reduced the forecast error of Z. The assimilation of X‐PAR data greatly improved the vortex structure of the tornadic storm at low levels, and improved the intensity of the rear inflow of the tornadic storm, especially with a higher assimilation frequency. Compared to the experiments without X‐PAR data assimilation, assimilating X‐PAR data improved the predictability of tornadic storm.

One important aspect of successfully implementing an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in a high dimensional geophysical application is covariance localization. But for satellite radiances whose vertical locations are not well defined, covariance localization is not straightforward. The global group filter (GGF) is an adaptive localization algorithm, which can provide adaptively estimated localization parameters including the localization width and vertical location of observations for each channel and every satellite platform of radiance data, and for different regions and times. This adaptive method is based on sample correlations between ensemble priors of observations and state variables, aiming to minimize sampling errors of estimated sample correlations. The adaptively estimated localization parameters are examined here for typhoon Yutu (2018), using the regional model WRF and a cycling EnKF system. The benefits of differentiating the localization parameters for TC and non-TC regions and varying the localization parameters with time are investigated. Results from the 6-h priors verified relative to the conventional and radiance observations show that the adaptively estimated localization parameters generally produce smaller errors than the default Gaspari and Cohn (GC) localization. The adaptively estimated localization parameters better capture the onset of RI and yield improved intensity and structure forecasts for typhoon Yutu (2018) compared to the default GC localization. The time-varying localization parameters have slightly advantages over the time-constant localization parameters. Further improvements are achieved by differentiating the localization parameters for TC and non-TC regions.