Northern lakes provide habitat for wildlife, regulate biogeochemical cycles, and supply subsistence resources for local communities. Monitoring long-term changes in these lakes is crucial to understanding how human activity and climate change affect these ecosystems. However, multidecadal trends in northern lake area are highly uncertain, with different studies reporting directionally opposite trends over the same region. Here, we examine the sources of differences between lake area estimates and short-term lake area trends derived from one Sentinel-2-based and two Landsat-based surface water products across five northern study regions. We show that differences in the magnitude and direction of regional lake area trends are related to systematic between-product differences in surface water detection in dry vs. wet years, with larger discrepancies in dry years. In some regions, these between-product differences were substantial enough to result in directionally opposite short-term trends (2016–2021), providing an explanation for disagreements in long-term (decadal-scale) studies. These between-product differences in wet vs. dry years reflect how the products classify mixed shoreline and other ambiguous pixels, which are more prevalent in regions with small, shallow lakes and aquatic vegetation. Resolving discrepancies in long-term trends will require new technologies and methods designed to differentiate between water, land, and inundated vegetation.

Climate change is intensifying the fire regime across Siberia, with the potential to alter carbon combustion and post-fire carbon re-accumulation trajectories. Few field-based estimates of fire severity (e.g., carbon combustion and tree mortality) exist in Siberian larch forests (Larix spp.), which limits our ability to project how an intensified fire regime will affect regional and global climate feedbacks. Here, we present field-based estimates of fire-induced tree mortality and carbon loss in eastern Siberian larch forests. Our results suggest that fires in this region result in high tree mortality (means of 83% and 76% at Arctic and subarctic sites, respectively). In both absolute and relative terms, aboveground carbon loss following fire is higher in Siberian larch forests than in North America, but belowground carbon loss is considerably lower. This suggests fundamental differences in wildfire behavior and carbon dynamics between dominant vegetation types across the boreal biome. With climate change, forest fires in Siberia are expected to become more severe and more frequent, which could amplify climate change by transferring carbon from the ecosystem to the atmosphere. Although Siberian larch forests make up 20% of the boreal forest biome by area, scientific understanding of the Siberian larch fire regime is limited because the region is remote and mostly roadless. We collected data from burned and nearby unburned Siberian larch forests to understand the effects of fire on the ecosystem. We found that fires in Siberian larch forests kill, on average, about 75% of trees and result in large carbon losses to the atmosphere. These observations of tree mortality and carbon loss are higher than reported in most satellite-based studies and demonstrate that fires in Siberian larch forests could contribute to ongoing climate change. Siberian larch forest fires cause high tree mortality despite species traits and stand structure hypothesized to promote low severity firesCompared with boreal North America, fires in Siberian larch forests result in greater aboveground C loss but lower belowground C loss

Fire is the major forest disturbance in Siberian larch (Larix spp.) ecosystems, which occupy 20

Rapid warming in the Arctic is driving permafrost thaw and lake area changes, with implications for wildlife, subsistence living and climate feedbacks. Models suggest that initial permafrost thaw will result in increased lake area, with continued warming and advanced thaw eventually leading to decreased lake area after ~60–150 years. Here, we review data from 139 sites in 57 publications tracking the direction of lake area change. In the discontinuous permafrost zone, the majority of sites exhibit decreasing lake area, whereas in the continuous zone, the number of sites with increasing lake area is similar to the number with decreasing lake area. These trends suggest that lake drainage due to permafrost thaw is occurring sooner than anticipated. Across the northern permafrost zone, lake area trends are unrelated to precipitation trends and, in most regions, lake area change is heterogeneous. Together, these results indicate that the primary driver of lake area change is permafrost thaw, rather than changes in precipitation and/or evapotranspiration. The observed emergence of lake area trends projected to occur no earlier than the mid-twenty-first century indicates that current models do not adequately represent the processes driving permafrost thaw and associated lake drainage.

Permafrost thaw causes the seasonally thawed active layer to deepen, causing the Arctic to shift toward carbon release as soil organic matter becomes susceptible to decomposition. Ground subsidence initiated by ice loss can cause these soils to collapse abruptly, rapidly shifting soil moisture as microtopography changes and also accelerating carbon and nutrient mobilization. The uncertainty of soil moisture trajectories during thaw makes it difficult to predict the role of abrupt thaw in suppressing or exacerbating carbon losses. In this study, we investigated the role of shifting soil moisture conditions on carbon dioxide fluxes during a 13-year permafrost warming experiment that exhibited abrupt thaw. Warming deepened the active layer differentially across treatments, leading to variable rates of subsidence and formation of thermokarst depressions. In turn, differential subsidence caused a gradient of moisture conditions, with some plots becoming consistently inundated with water within thermokarst depressions and others exhibiting generally dry, but more variable soil moisture conditions outside of thermokarst depressions. Experimentally induced permafrost thaw initially drove increasing rates of growing season gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R-eco), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (higher carbon uptake), but the formation of thermokarst depressions began to reverse this trend with a high level of spatial heterogeneity. Plots that subsided at the slowest rate stayed relatively dry and supported higher CO2 fluxes throughout the 13-year experiment, while plots that subsided very rapidly into the center of a thermokarst feature became consistently wet and experienced a rapid decline in growing season GPP, R-eco, and NEE (lower carbon uptake or carbon release). These findings indicate that Earth system models, which do not simulate subsidence and often predict drier active layer conditions, likely overestimate net growing season carbon uptake in abruptly thawing landscapes.

Surface heat and momentum fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are mitigated by sea ice cover, resulting in an effective net forcing that can be very different in character from the wind stress alone. The effective stress is often expressed as a weighted sum of air-sea and ice-sea stresses. This is appropriate for levitating ice. Allowing instead for floating ice, one can rewrite the effective forcing in a way that makes no explicit mention of the ice-ocean stress. Instead, the net forcing becomes a linear sum of air-sea and internal ice stresses. These differences are explored in the context of the Beaufort Gyre. Previous studies have introduced the ice-ocean governor as a regulating mechanism for the gyre, and in this limit, the ice-ocean stress is assumed to vanish. For floating ice, the governor limit can be thought of instead as a balance between the wind stress and the internal ice stress. Note that this balance would seem to be unlikely in that the internal stress is associated with small-scale linear kinetic features, which are very different in character from the mesoscale and synoptic features that determine the wind stress. High-resolution ECCO data will be used to examine the instantaneous and time-averaged spatial structure of the various terms that drive the Beaufort Gyre. Future work will also examine the air-sea-ice interface in different wind and ice regimes, as well as the role of eddy fluxes in the gyre dynamics.

Lakes constitute 20–40% of Arctic lowlands, the largest surface water fraction of any terrestrial biome. These lakes provide crucial habitat for wildlife, supply water for remote Arctic communities and play an important role in carbon cycling and the regional energy balance. Recent evidence suggests that climate change is shifting these systems towards long-term wetting (lake formation or expansion) or drying. The net direction and cause of these shifts, however, are not well understood. Here, we present evidence for large-scale drying across lake-rich regions of the Arctic over the past two decades (2000–2021), a trend that is correlated with increases in annual air temperature and autumn rain. Given that increasing air temperatures and autumn rain promote permafrost thaw, our results indicate that permafrost thaw is leading to widespread surface water decline, challenging models that do not predict a net decrease in lake area until the mid-twenty-first or twenty-second centuries.

Warming of the Arctic can stimulate microbial decomposition and release of permafrost soil carbon (C) as greenhouse gases, and thus has the potential to influence climate change. At the same time, plant growth can be stimulated and offset C release. This study presents a 15‐year time series comprising chamber and eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem C exchange in a tundra ecosystem in Alaska where permafrost has been degrading due to regional warming. The site was a carbon dioxide source to the atmosphere with a cumulative total loss of 781.6 g C m −2 over the study period. Both gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration ( R eco ) were already likely higher than historical levels such that increases in R eco losses overwhelmed GPP gains in most years. This shift to a net C source to the atmosphere likely started in the early 1990s when permafrost was observed to warm and thaw at the site. Shifts in the plant community occur more slowly and are likely to constrain future GPP increases as compared to more rapid shifts in the microbial community that contribute to increased R eco . Observed rates suggest that cumulative net soil C loss of 4.18–10.00 kg C m −2 —8%–20% of the current active layer soil C pool—could occur from 2020 to the end of the century. This amount of permafrost C loss to the atmosphere represents a significant accelerating feedback to climate change if it were to occur at a similar magnitude across the permafrost region.

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average, due in part to the albedo feedbacks of a diminishing cryosphere. As snow cover extent decreases, the underlying land is exposed, which has lower albedo and therefore absorbs more radiation, warming the surface and causing a positive feedback to climate change. Changes in terrestrial snow-free albedo (e.g. changes in vegetation or surface water) could also affect Earth’s energy balance, but their importance for contemporary climate change is relatively unknown. Here we show that changes in surface water are significantly altering Artic-boreal albedo, and explain up to 27% of the spatial variation in monthly albedo change from 2000 to 2019. The increase in radiative forcing due to changes in surface water extent is most pronounced in the continuous permafrost zone, contributing to a positive feedback between permafrost thaw and climate change. Additionally, we show that fire history and changes in tree cover and surface water extent together account for at least 15% of albedo-induced radiative forcing over the study period, indicating that these processes are a regionally important aspect of the climate-albedo feedback.

Climate warming is altering the persistence, timing, and distribution of permafrost and snow cover across the terrestrial northern hemisphere. These cryospheric changes have numerous consequences, not least of which are positive climate feedbacks associated with lowered albedo related to declining snow cover, and greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost thaw. Given the large land areas affected, these feedbacks have the potential to impact climate on a global scale. Understanding the magnitudes and rates of changes in permafrost and snow cover is therefore integral for process understanding and quantification of climate change. However, while permafrost and snow cover are largely controlled by climate, their distributions and climate impacts are influenced by numerous interrelated ecosystem processes that also respond to climate and are highly heterogeneous in space and time. In this perspective we highlight ongoing and emerging changes in ecosystem processes that mediate how permafrost and snow cover interact with climate. We focus on larch forests in northeastern Siberia, which are expansive, ecologically unique, and studied less than other Arctic and subarctic regions. Emerging fire regime changes coupled with high ground ice have the potential to foster rapid regional changes in vegetation and permafrost thaw, with important climate feedback implications.

Evidence suggests that 5–15% of the vast pool of soil carbon stored in northern permafrost ecosystems could be emitted as greenhouse gases by 2100 under the current path of global warming. However, direct measurements of changes in soil carbon remain scarce, largely because ground subsidence that occurs as the permafrost soils begin to thaw confounds the traditional quantification of carbon pools based on fixed depths or soil horizons. This issue is overcome when carbon is quantified in relation to a fixed ash content, which uses the relatively stable mineral component of soil as a metric for pool comparisons through time. We applied this approach to directly measure soil carbon pool changes over five years in experimentally warmed and ambient tundra ecosystems at a site in Alaska where permafrost is degrading due to climate change. We show a loss of soil carbon of 5.4% per year (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 9.5) across the site. Our results point to lateral hydrological export as a potential pathway for these surprisingly large losses. This research highlights the potential to make repeat soil carbon pool measurements at sentinel sites across the permafrost region, as this feedback to climate change may be occurring faster than previously thought. Permafrost loses carbon at a faster rate than previously thought as climate warms, according to direct soil carbon observations over five years in the field in Alaska’s tundra ecosystem.

In the last few decades, temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice as much as the rest of the globe. As permafrost thaws in response to this warming, large amounts of soil organic matter may become vulnerable to decomposition. Microbial decomposition will release carbon (C) from permafrost soils, however, warmer conditions could also lead to enhanced plant growth and C uptake. Field and modeling studies show high uncertainty in soil and plant responses to climate change but there have been few studies that reconcile field and model data to understand differences and reduce uncertainty. Here, we evaluate gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) from eight years of experimental soil warming in moist acidic tundra against equivalent fluxes from the Community Land Model during simulations parameterized to reflect the field conditions associated with this manipulative field experiment. Over the eight-year experimental period, soil temperatures and thaw depths increased with warming in field observations and model simulations. However, the field and model results do not agree on warming effects on water table depth; warming created wetter soils in the field and drier soils in the models. In the field, initial increases in growing season GPP, Reco, and NEE to experimentally-induced permafrost thaw created a higher C sink capacity in the first years followed by a stronger C source in years six through eight. In contrast, both models predicted linear increases in GPP, Reco, and NEE with warming. The divergence of model results from field experiments reveals the role subsidence, hydrology, and nutrient cycling play in influencing the C flux responses to permafrost thaw, a complexity that the models are not structurally able to predict, and highlight challenges associated with projecting C cycle dynamics across the Arctic.

Permafrost soils store between 1330 and 1580 Pg carbon (C), which is 3 times the amount of C in global vegetation, almost twice the amount of C in the atmosphere, and half of the global soil organic C pool. Despite the massive amount of C in permafrost, estimates of soil C storage in the high-latitude permafrost region are highly uncertain, primarily due to undersampling at all spatial scales; circumpolar soil C estimates lack sufficient continental spatial diversity, regional intensity, and replication at the field-site level. Siberian forests are particularly undersampled, yet the larch forests that dominate this region may store more than twice as much soil C as all other boreal forest types in the continuous permafrost zone combined. Here we present above- and belowground C stocks from 20 sites representing a gradient of stand age and structure in a larch watershed of the Kolyma River, near Chersky, Sakha Republic, Russia. We found that the majority of C stored in the top 1 m of the watershed was stored belowground (92 %), with 19 % in the top 10 cm of soil and 40 % in the top 30 cm. Carbon was more variable in surface soils (10 cm; coefficient of variation (CV) = 0.35 between stands) than in the top 30 cm (CV = 0.14) or soil profile to 1 m (CV = 0.20). Combined active-layer and deep frozen deposits (surface – 15 m) contained 205 kg C m−2 (yedoma, non-ice wedge) and 331 kg C m−2 (alas), which, even when accounting for landscape-level ice content, is an order of magnitude more C than that stored in the top meter of soil and 2 orders of magnitude more C than in aboveground biomass. Aboveground biomass was composed of primarily larch (53 %) but also included understory vegetation (30 %), woody debris (11 %) and snag (6 %) biomass. While aboveground biomass contained relatively little (8 %) of the C stocks in the watershed, aboveground processes were linked to thaw depth and belowground C storage. Thaw depth was negatively related to stand age, and soil C density (top 10 cm) was positively related to soil moisture and negatively related to moss and lichen cover. These results suggest that, as the climate warms, changes in stand age and structure may be as important as direct climate effects on belowground environmental conditions and permafrost C vulnerability.

Rapid Arctic warming is expected to increase global greenhouse gas concentrations as permafrost thaw exposes immense stores of frozen carbon (C) to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also stimulates plant growth, which could offset C loss. Using data from 7 years of experimental Air and Soil warming in moist acidic tundra, we show that Soil warming had a much stronger effect on CO 2 flux than Air warming. Soil warming caused rapid permafrost thaw and increased ecosystem respiration (R eco ), gross primary productivity ( GPP ), and net summer CO 2 storage ( NEE ). Over 7 years R eco , GPP , and NEE also increased in Control (i.e., ambient plots), but this change could be explained by slow thaw in Control areas. In the initial stages of thaw, R eco , GPP , and NEE increased linearly with thaw across all treatments, despite different rates of thaw. As thaw in Soil warming continued to increase linearly, ground surface subsidence created saturated microsites and suppressed R eco , GPP , and NEE . However R eco and GPP remained high in areas with large Eriophorum vaginatum biomass. In general NEE increased with thaw, but was more strongly correlated with plant biomass than thaw, indicating that higher R eco in deeply thawed areas during summer months was balanced by GPP . Summer CO 2 flux across treatments fit a single quadratic relationship that captured the functional response of CO 2 flux to thaw, water table depth, and plant biomass. These results demonstrate the importance of indirect thaw effects on CO 2 flux: plant growth and water table dynamics. Nonsummer R eco models estimated that the area was an annual CO 2 source during all years of observation. Nonsummer CO 2 loss in warmer, more deeply thawed soils exceeded the increases in summer GPP , and thawed tundra was a net annual CO 2 source.

Current and future warming of high‐latitude ecosystems will play an important role in climate change through feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. This study compares 6 years of CO 2 flux measurements in moist acidic tundra using autochambers and eddy covariance (Tower) approaches. We found that the tundra was an annual source of CO 2 to the atmosphere as indicated by net ecosystem exchange using both methods with a combined mean of 105 ± 17 g CO 2 C m −2 y −1 across methods and years (Tower 87 ± 17 and Autochamber 123 ± 14). The difference between methods was largest early in the observation period, with Autochambers indicated a greater CO 2 source to the atmosphere. This discrepancy diminished through time, and in the final year the Autochambers measured a greater sink strength than tower. Active layer thickness was a significant driver of net ecosystem carbon exchange, gross ecosystem primary productivity, and R eco and could account for differences between Autochamber and Tower. The stronger source initially attributed lower summer season gross primary production (GPP) during the first 3 years, coupled with lower ecosystem respiration ( R eco ) during the first year. The combined suppression of GPP and R eco in the first year of Autochamber measurements could be the result of the experimental setup. Root damage associated with Autochamber soil collar installation may have lowered the plant community's capacity to fix C, but recovered within 3 years. While this ecosystem was a consistent CO 2 sink during the summer, CO 2 emissions during the nonsummer months offset summer CO 2 uptake each year.

Permafrost soils currently store approximately 1672Pg of carbon (C), but as high latitudes warm, this temperature-protected C reservoir will become vulnerable to higher rates of decomposition. In recent decades, air temperatures in the high latitudes have warmed more than any other region globally, particularly during the winter. Over the coming century, the arctic winter is also expected to experience the most warming of any region or season, yet it is notably understudied. Here we present nonsummer season (NSS) CO2 flux data from the Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research project, an ecosystem warming experiment of moist acidic tussock tundra in interior Alaska. Our goals were to quantify the relationship between environmental variables and winter CO2 production, account for subnivean photosynthesis and late fall plant C uptake in our estimate of NSS CO2 exchange, constrain NSS CO2 loss estimates using multiple methods of measuring winter CO2 flux, and quantify the effect of winter soil warming on total NSS CO2 balance. We measured CO2 flux using four methods: two chamber techniques (the snow pit method and one where a chamber is left under the snow for the entire season), eddy covariance, and soda lime adsorption, and found that NSS CO2 loss varied up to fourfold, depending on the method used. CO2 production was dependent on soil temperature and day of season but atmospheric pressure and air temperature were also important in explaining CO2 diffusion out of the soil. Warming stimulated both ecosystem respiration and productivity during the NSS and increased overall CO2 loss during this period by 14% (this effect varied by year, ranging from 7 to 24%). When combined with the summertime CO2 fluxes from the same site, our results suggest that this subarctic tundra ecosystem is shifting away from its historical function as a C sink to a C source.

As permafrost degrades, the amount of organic soil carbon (C) that thaws during the growing season will increase, but decomposition may be limited by saturated soil conditions common in high-latitude ecosystems. However, in some areas, soil drying is expected to accompany permafrost thaw as a result of increased water drainage, which may enhance C release to the atmosphere. We examined the effects of ecosystem warming, permafrost thaw, and soil moisture changes on C balance in an upland tundra ecosystem. This study was conducted at a water table drawdown experiment, established in 2011 and located within the Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research project, an ecosystem warming and permafrost thawing experiment in Alaska. Warming and drying increased cumulative growing season ecosystem respiration by similar to 20% over 3years of this experiment. Warming caused an almost twofold increase in decomposition of a common substrate in surface soil (0-10cm) across all years, and drying caused a twofold increase in decomposition (0-20cm) relative to control after 3years of drying. Decomposition of older C increased in the dried and in the combined warmed+dried plots based on soil pore space (CO2)-C-14. Although upland tundra systems have been considered CH4 sinks, warming and ground thaw significantly increased CH4 emission rates. Water table depth was positively correlated with monthly respiration and negatively correlated with CH4 emission rates. These results demonstrate that warming and drying may increase loss of old permafrost C from tundra ecosystems, but the form and magnitude of C released to the atmosphere will be driven by changes in soil moisture.