Damming of large rivers in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Canada has divided the historical population of white sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus into more than 36 fragmented populations, few of which are thriving. We now face the challenge of managing these populations to avoid extirpation. Two goals of this study were to identify extinction thresholds related to small size and inadequate habitat for this species. The minimum viable population size (MVP) is the threshold size above which populations support recruitment and grow and below which populations fail to support recruitment and decline. We estimated a single, cross-population MVP using data from multiple populations and quantile regression, which removed the effects of factors other than population size. Only two populations (those in the Bonneville and Dalles reservoirs on the Columbia River), both with significant increasing trends, were larger than our MVP estimate. We detected significant decreasing trends in two populations-those below Bonneville Dam and in the Kootenai River. To discover how site-specific differences in river habitat influence MVP, we used a population viability analysis (PVA) model that incorporated Allee mechanisms. The PVA model identified a river segment length below which extinction was certain regardless of initial population size. Above this threshold, simulated populations in river segments that were longer or that provided more frequent recruitment opportunities were able to persist with smaller initial sizes. Two priorities emerged for white sturgeon: monitoring age structure and understanding the circumstances preventing recruitment to age 1. Our results ultimately guided us toward thresholds in rearing habitat and age structure that promise to develop into more useful conservation tools than MVP for this and similar long-lived species.

This paper describes a simulation study of reconnection options for white sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus subpopulations in adjacent river segments above and below CJ Strike Dam on the Snake River, Idaho, USA. In contrast to the downstream river segment, the upstream river segment is long and has areas that are suitable for spawning during normal and wet hydrologic conditions. We evaluated demographic and genetic consequences of upstream and downstream passage using different model assumptions about trashrack spacing and density-dependent effects on the spawning interval. Our genetic results predict that, although reconnection would introduce new alleles to the upstream subpopulation, it would also preserve alleles from the downstream subpopulation by propagating them in the larger subpopulation above the dam. Our demographic results predict that halving the space between trashracks would have large and unequivocal benefits, whereas the predicted effects of reconnection were smaller and more sensitive to model assumptions. Simulated upstream passage tended to benefit both subpopulations only in the absence of density-dependent limitation. In the presence of density dependence, the combination of halved trashrack spacing and upstream and downstream passage produced the best results. Narrower trashracks kept spawning adults in the upstream segment with spawning habitat, while allowing their progeny to migrate downstream. Screening appears to be the best option for such a species in this configuration of a long river segment acting as a demographic source above a short one acting as a demographic sink.

We use elasticity analyses for three sturgeon species, the shortnose sturgeon Acipenser brevirostrum, Atlantic sturgeon A. oxyrinchus, and white sturgeon A. transmontanus, to calculate the potential to increase population growth rate, lambda, by improving survival and fecundity. Elasticity analysis is a means of assessing changes to lambda resulting from conservation initiatives. The elasticity of lambda to survival has a characteristic profile that includes a plateau of high elasticity values across the young of the year and the juvenile ages. However, survival elasticity falls at maturity and declines rapidly with increasing adult age. Changes to fecundity have relatively little impact; the total of the fecundity elasticities over all ages is equal to the single young-of-the-year survival elasticity. Even though the young-of-the-year survival elasticity is equal to that of any other juvenile age, the overall opportunity for affecting lambda is strongest in the young-of-the-year age-class because of its exceptional potential for increase to survival. The juvenile and adult stages have roughly equal total survival elasticities. These findings are particularly relevant in understanding the contributions of hatcheries, harvest regulations and habitat restoration as strategies for sturgeon conservation. Hatcheries are focused on the young of the year, the demographically most sensitive component of sturgeon life histories, and thus have the potential to make significant increases to lambda if the genetic, evolutionary and ecological impacts of hatcheries can be controlled. Harvest, even at low levels, can have a significant negative impact on lambda when it affects multiple age classes. Managers can use elasticity analysis to calculate the total impact of harvest and to mathematically evaluate the trade-off in exploiting young versus older individuals. Habitat restoration strategies, usually assessed in terms of survivals of the age classes impacted, would also benefit from using elasticity analysis to interpret their contributions to lambda. If restoration efforts target the survival of age classes with high elasticities, significant population growth may be achieved.

Most of the world's large rivers are fragmented by dams. Fragmentation of the river ecosystem alters migration patterns among fish populations and converts free-flowing river to reservoir habitat. In this study, we used an individual-based genetic metapopulation model to study the effects of fragmentation on the population viability and genetic diversity of a large-river fish, the white sturgeon, Acipenser transmontanus. In the first of two simulation experiments, we fragmented a 200 km river reach by building 1 to 20 virtual dams. Increased fragmentation produced an exponential decline in the likelihood of persistence, but no extinction threshold to suggest a minimum viable length of river. Compounding isolation with the loss of free-flowing habitat did not further reduce viability until free-flowing habitat was nearly eliminated, at which point extinction was certain. Genetic diversity within (among) populations decreased (increased) as we ‘built’ the first several dams. Adding more dams caused the number of persisting populations to decline and eroded genetic diversity within and among populations. Our second simulation experiment evaluated the effects of different levels of upstream and downstream migration between river segments. The results of these migration experiments highlighted the importance of balanced migration rates. We found that extinction risk was high for populations linked by high downstream, and low upstream, migration rates, as is often the case in impounded rivers. Our results support the view that migration patterns will play a significant role in determining the viability of riverine fishes, such as the white sturgeon, in river ecosystems fragmented by dams.

Many utilities face conflicts between two goals: generating cost-efficient hydropower and protecting riverine fishes. Research to develop ecological simulation tools that can evaluate alternative mitigation strategies in terms of their benefits to fish populations is vital to informed decision-making. In this paper, we describe our approach to population viability analysis of riverine fishes in general and Snake River white sturgeon in particular. We are finding that the individual-based modeling approach used in previous in-stream flow applications is well suited to addressing questions about the viability of species of concern for several reasons. Chief among these are: (1) the ability to represent the effects of individual variation in life history characteristics on predicted population viability; (2) the flexibility needed to quantify the ecological benefits of alternative flow management options by representing spatial and temporal variation in flow and temperature; and (3) the flexibility needed to quantify the ecological benefits of non-flow related manipulations (i.e., passage, screening, and hatchery supplementation).