Unabated urbanization has led to environmental degradation and subsequent biodiversity loss across the globe. As an outcome of unmitigated land use, multi-jurisdictional agencies have developed land use plans that attempt to protect threatened or endangered species across selected areas by which some trade-offs between harm to species and additional conservation approaches are allowed among the partnering organizations. Typical conservation plans can be created to focus on single or multiple species, and although they may protect a species or groups of species, they may not account for biodiversity or its protection across the given area. We applied an approach that clustered deductive habitat models for terrestrial vertebrates into metrics that serve as surrogates for biodiversity and relate to ecosystem services. In order to evaluate this process, we collaborated with the partnering agencies who are creating a Multi-Species Habitat Conservation Plan in southern California and compared it to the entire Mojave Desert Ecoregion. We focused on total terrestrial vertebrate species richness and taxon groupings representing amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles, and two special status species using the Normalized Index of Biodiversity (NIB). The conservation planning area had a lower NIB and was less species rich than the Mojave Desert Ecoregion, but the Mojave River riparian corridor had a higher NIB and was more species-rich, and while taxon analysis varied across the geographies, this pattern generally held. Additionally, we analyzed desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) and desert kit fox (Vulpes macrotis arsipus) as umbrella species and determined that both species are associated with increased NIB and large numbers of species for the conservation area. Our process provided the ability to incorporate value-added surrogate information into a formal land use planning process and used a metric, NIB, which allowed comparison of the various planning areas and geographic units. Although this process has been applied to Apple Valley, CA, and other geographies within the U.S., the approach has practical application for other global biodiversity initiatives.

Freshwater ecosystems are linked at various spatial and temporal scales by movements of biota adapted to life in water. We review the literature on movements of aquatic organisms that connect different types of freshwater habitats, focusing on linkages from streams and wetlands to downstream waters. Here, streams, wetlands, rivers, lakes, ponds, and other freshwater habitats are viewed as dynamic freshwater ecosystem mosaics (FEMs) that collectively provide the resources needed to sustain aquatic life. Based on existing evidence, it is clear that biotic linkages throughout FEMs have important consequences for biological integrity and biodiversity. All aquatic organisms move within and among FEM components, but differ in the mode, frequency, distance, and timing of their movements. These movements allow biota to recolonize habitats, avoid inbreeding, escape stressors, locate mates, and acquire resources. Cumulatively, these individual movements connect populations within and among FEMs and contribute to local and regional diversity, resilience to disturbance, and persistence of aquatic species in the face of environmental change. Thus, the biological connections established by movement of biota among streams, wetlands, and downstream waters are critical to the ecological integrity of these systems. Future research will help advance our understanding of the movements that link FEMs and their cumulative effects on downstream waters.

Urban hydrology and green infrastructure (GI) can be modeled using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Urban tool and the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion (KINEROS2) model. The KINEROS2 model provides an urban modeling element with nine overland flow components that can be used to represent various land cover types commonly found in the built environment while treating runoff-runon and infiltration processes in a physically based manner. The AGWA Urban tool utilizes a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework to prepare parameters required for KINEROS2, executes the model, and imports results for visualization in the GIS. The AGWA Urban tool was validated on a residential subdivision in Arizona, USA, using 47 rainfall events (June 2005 to September 2006) to compare observed runoff volumes and peak flow rates with simulated results. Comparison of simulated and observed runoff volumes resulted in a slope of 1.00 for the regression equation with an R2 value of 0.80. Comparison of observed and simulated peak flows had a slope of 1.12 with an R2 value of 0.83. A roof runoff analysis was simulated for 787 events, from January 2006 through December 2015, to analyze the water availability from roof runoff capture. Simulation results indicated a 15% capture of the average monthly rainfall volume on the watershed. Additionally, rainwater captured from roofs has the potential to provide for up to 70% of the domestic annual per capita water use in this region. Five different scenarios (S1 - base, S2 - with retention basins, S3 - with permeable driveways, S4 - with rainwater harvesting cisterns, and S5 - all GI practices from S2, S3, and S4) were simulated over the same period to compare the effectiveness of GI implementation at the parcel level on runoff and peak flows at the watershed outlet. Simulation results indicate a higher runoff volume reduction for S2 (53.41 m3 average capacity, average 30% reduction) as compared to S3 (average 14% reduction), or S4 (3.78 m3 capacity, average 6% reduction). Analysis of peak flows reveal larger peak flow reduction for S2. S3 showed more reduction of smaller peak flows as compared to S4.

Connectivity is a fundamental but highly dynamic property of watersheds. Variability in the types and degrees of aquatic ecosystem connectivity presents challenges for researchers and managers seeking to accurately quantify its effects on critical hydrologic, biogeochemical, and biological processes. However, protecting natural gradients of connectivity is key to protecting the range of ecosystem services that aquatic ecosystems provide. In this featured collection, we review the available evidence on connections and functions by which streams and wetlands affect the integrity of downstream waters such as large rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries. The reviews in this collection focus on the types of waters whose protections under the U.S. Clean Water Act have been called into question by U.S. Supreme Court cases. We synthesize 40+ years of research on longitudinal, lateral, and vertical fluxes of energy, material, and biota between aquatic ecosystems included within the Act's frame of reference. Many questions about the roles of streams and wetlands in sustaining downstream water integrity can be answered from currently available literature, and emerging research is rapidly closing data gaps with exciting new insights into aquatic connectivity and function at local, watershed, and regional scales. Synthesis of foundational and emerging research is needed to support science-based efforts to provide safe, reliable sources of fresh water for present and future generations.

The effects of future land use change on arid and semi-arid watersheds in the American Southwest have important management implications. Seamless, national-scale land-use-change scenarios for developed land were acquired from the US Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (lCLUS) project and extracted to fit the Northern Rio Grande River Basin, New Mexico relative to projections of housing density for the period from 2000 through 2100. Habitat models developed from the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project were invoked to examine changes in wildlife habitat and biodiversity metrics using five ICLUS scenarios. The scenarios represent a US Census base-case and four modifications that were consistent with the different assumptions underlying the A1, A2, B1, and B2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global greenhouse gas emission storylines. Habitat models for terrestrial vertebrate species were used to derive metrics reflecting ecosystem services or biodiversity aspects valued by humans that could be quantified and mapped. Example metrics included total terrestrial vertebrate species richness, bird species richness, threatened and endangered species, and harvestable species (e.g., waterfowl, big game). Overall, the defined scenarios indicated that the housing density and extent of developed lands will increase throughout the century with a resultant decrease in area for all species richness categories. The A2 Scenario, in general, showed greatest effect on area by species richness category. The integration of the land use scenarios with biodiversity metrics derived from deductive habitat models may prove to be an important tool for decision makers involved in impact assessments and adaptive planning processes.

Streams, riparian areas, floodplains, alluvial aquifers, and downstream waters (e.g., large rivers, lakes, and oceans) are interconnected by longitudinal, lateral, and vertical fluxes of water, other materials, and energy. Collectively, these interconnected waters are called fluvial hydrosystems. Physical and chemical connectivity within fluvial hydrosystems is created by the transport of nonliving materials (e.g., water, sediment, nutrients, and contaminants) which either do or do not chemically change (chemical and physical connections, respectively). A substantial body of evidence unequivocally demonstrates physical and chemical connectivity between streams and riparian wetlands and downstream waters. Streams and riparian wetlands are structurally connected to downstream waters through the network of continuous channels and floodplain form that make these systems physically contiguous, and the very existence of these structures provides strong geomorphologic evidence for connectivity. Functional connections between streams and riparian wetlands and their downstream waters vary geographically and over time, based on proximity, relative size, environmental setting, material disparity, and intervening units. Because of the complexity and dynamic nature of connections among fluvial hydrosystem units, a complete accounting of the physical and chemical connections and their consequences to downstream waters should aggregate over multiple years to decades.

The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA, see: www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/agwa or http://www.epa.gov/esd/land-sci/agwa/) is a GIS interface jointly developed by the USDA Agricultural Research Service, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the University of Arizona, and the University of Wyoming to automate the parameterization and execution of a suite of hydrologic and erosion models (RHEM, KINEROS2 and SWAT). Through an intuitive interface the user selects an outlet from which AGWA delineates anddiscretizes the watershed using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The watershed modelelements are then intersected with terrain, soils, and land cover data layers to derive the requisitemodel input parameters. The chosen model is then run, and the results are imported backinto AGWA for graphical display. AGWA can difference results from multiple simulations to examine relative change over a variety of input scenarios (e.g. climate/storm change, land cover change, implementation of BMPs, present conditions and alternative futures).This allows managers to identify potential problem areas where additional monitoring can be undertaken or mitigation activities can be focused. Application examples of AGWA will be presented including post-fire assessment, implementation of rangeland BMPs, green infrastructure, and future change analysis. Versions of AGWA are available for ESRI ArcView 3.x and ArcGIS 9.x and 10.x.

In arid and semi-arid regions, green infrastructure (GI) designs can address several issues facing urban environments, including augmenting water supply, mitigating flooding, decreasing pollutant loads, and promoting greenness in the built environment. An optimum design captures stormwater, addressing flooding and water quality issues, in a way that increases water availability to support natural vegetation communities and landscaping in the built environment. A module was developed for the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool which supports the design and placement of a suite of GI practices, singularly or in combination, in order to simulate urban hydrology with and without GI features at the household and neighborhood scale.The GI tool takes advantage of the advanced, physically-based infiltration algorithms and geometric flexibility of the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion (KINEROS2) watershed model. The resulting software provides an up-to-date GIS-based GI assessment framework that automatically derives model parameters from widely available spatial data. It is also capable of manipulating GI features within a graphical interface to conveniently view and compare simulation results with and without GI features at a lot, neighborhood or small catchment scale. The new tool was used to assess a variety of GI designs across a subdivision in Sierra Vista, Arizona for the design objectives: maximize stormwater capture, maximize water augmentation, and maximize ecosystem services.

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. Future growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) modeling system.

Over the past century, mesquite trees (Prosopis spp.) have exhibited substantial increase in abundance throughout areas in the American Southwest that were once dominated by desert grassland. To assess hydrological consequences of mesquite encroachment, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate progressive mesquite encroachments in the upper San Pedro watershed (U.S./Mexico). The simulated average annual basin evapotranspiration (ET) increases with mesquite encroachment, leading to the decrease of annual water yield and percolation by 9.8% and 9.7%, respectively. Substantial increase of ET (up to 19.19 mm) and decrease of percolation, and surface runoff (to -12.90 and -3.20 mm, respectively) were observed in the southeast, middle-west, and northern subwatersheds of the basin and the most significant decrease of surface runoff (around -35.8%) was simulated during the wet period. In addition, a non-linear hydrological response relative to mesquite encroachment was observed, i.e. hydrological processes changed markedly until a certain amount (approximately 40%) of grassland was removed, indicating that the strongest increase of ET occurred in the earliest stages of encroachment. Consequently, changes in vegetation physiognomy, such as mesquite encroachment, have broad implications for landuse management especially in regard to reliable water supplies in arid and semi-arid environments. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Ecosystem services, i.e., services provided to humans from ecological systems have become a key issue of this century in resource management, conservation planning, and environmental decision analysis. Mapping and quantifying ecosystem services have become strategic national interests for integrating ecology with economics to help understand the effects of human policies and actions and their subsequent impacts on both ecosystem function and human well-being. Some aspects of biodiversity are valued by humans in varied ways, and thus are important to include in any assessment that seeks to identify and quantify the benefits of ecosystems to humans. Some biodiversity metrics clearly reflect ecosystem services (e.g., abundance and diversity of harvestable species), whereas others may reflect indirect and difficult to quantify relationships to services (e.g., relevance of species diversity to ecosystem resilience, cultural value of native species). Wildlife habitat has been modeled at broad spatial scales and can be used to map a number of biodiversity metrics. In the present study, we present an approach that (1) identifies mappable biodiversity metrics that are related to ecosystem services or other stakeholder concerns, (2) maps these metrics throughout a large multi-state region, and (3) compares the metric values obtained for selected watersheds within the regional context. The broader focus is to design a flexible approach for mapping metrics to produce a national-scale product. We map 20 biodiversity metrics reflecting ecosystem services or other aspects of biodiversity for all vertebrate species except fish. Metrics include species richness for all vertebrates, specific taxon groups, harvestable species (i.e., upland game, waterfowl, furbearers, small game, and big game), threatened and endangered species, and state-designated species of greatest conservation need, and also a metric for ecosystem (i.e., land cover) diversity. The project is being conducted at multiple scales in a phased approach, starting with place-based studies, then multi-state regional areas, culminating into a national-level atlas. As an example of this incremental approach, we provide results for the southwestern United States (i.e., states of Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado) and portions of two watersheds within this region: the San Pedro River (Arizona) and Rio Grande River (New Mexico). Geographic patterns differed considerably among metrics across the southwestern study area, but metric values for the two watershed study areas were generally greater than those for the southwestern region as a whole. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land cover and land use changes can substantially alter hydrologic ecosystem services. Water availability and quality can change with modifications to the type or amount of surface vegetation, the permeability of soil and other surfaces, and the introduction of contaminants through human activities. Efforts to understand and predict the effects of land use decisions on hydrologic services-and to use this information in decision making-are challenged by the complexities of ecosystem functioning and by the need to translate scientific information into a form that decision makers can use. Hydrologic modeling coupled with scenario analysis can (1) elucidate hydrologic responses to anticipated changes in land use and (2) improve the utility of scientific information for decision making in a manner that facilitates stakeholder involvement. Using a combination of general concepts and concrete examples, this paper summarizes hydrologic consequences of land use changes and describes the use of modeling and scenario analysis to inform decision making. Two case studies integrate the concepts raised in the paper and illustrate how an approach employing modeling and scenario analysis offers a potentially powerful way to link research on hydrologic services with decision making.

The assessment of Landuse and Landcover (LULC) changes on hydrology is essential for the development of sustainable water resource strategies. Specifically, understanding how change in each LULC class influences hydrological components will greatly improve predictability of hydrological consequences to LULC changes and thus can help stakeholders make better decisions. However, given the limited availability of digital LULC maps and simultaneous changes of multiple LULC classes, it is difficult to quantify impacts of change in individual LULC class on hydrology. In this study, an integrated approach of hydrological modeling and multiple regression analysis was applied to quantify contributions of changes for individual LULC classes on changes in hydrological components. As a case study, hydrological modeling was conducted for each of the LULC map in four time periods (1973, 1986, 1992, and 1997) in the upper San Pedro watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Changes in hydrological components between two simulations using LULC maps in 1997 and 1973, respectively, were related to changes of LULC in a multiple regression to quantify the effect of changes in LULC to that of hydrological components at the subbasinal scale. While urbanization was the strongest contributor to the increase of surface runoff and water yield from 1973 to 1997, replacement of desertscrub/grassland by mesquite was the strongest contributor to the decreased baseflow/percolation and contributed to the increased ET. Increased runoff, declined percolation, and increased ET have a negative impact on water resources in the upper San Pedro River Basin, thus urbanization and mesquite invasion seems to be major environmental stressors affecting local water resources. Our approach in quantifying the contributions of changes for individual LULC to hydrological components will provide quantitative information for stakeholders in planning and making decisions for land and water resource management. The approach to assess changes in surface hydrology could widely be applied to a variety of other watersheds, where time-sequenced digital LULC is available.

A consortium of federal, academic, and nongovernment organization (NGO) partners have established a collaborative research enterprise in the San Pedro River Basin to develop methods, standards, and tools to assess and value ecosystem goods and services. The central premise of ecosystem services research is that human condition is intrinsically linked to the environment. Human health and well-being (including economic prosperity) depend on important supporting, regulating, provisioning, and cultural services that we derive from our surrounding ecosystems. The AGAVES project is intended as a demonstration study for incorporating ecosystem services information into resource management policy and decisionmaking. Accordingly, a nested, multiscale project design has been adopted to address a range of stakeholder information requirements. This design will further facilitate an evaluation of how well methods developed in this project can be transferred to other areas.

Human pressures on the natural resources of the United States have resulted in many unintended changes in our ecosystems, e.g., loss of biodiversity, habitat degradation, increases in the number of endangered species, and increases in contamination and water pollution. Environmental managers are concerned about broad-scale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on hydrologic and ecological processes that affect stream conditions. The type of land use and land cover has direct consequences for most ecosystem services, including water quantity and water quality, erosion control, and biodiversity. As human pressure continues to increase, ecosystem services worldwide are projected to suffer continued loss and degradation, thus reducing the capacity of ecosystems to provide essential goods and services that contribute to human well-being [1]. The ability to assess, report, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions that will maintain the sustainable nature of our environment and secure these resources into the future. This study presents an integrated approach to identify areas with potential water quality problems as a result of land cover change projected by stakeholders within a moderately large river basin in the Pacific Northwest (USA). A process-based hydrologic watershed model was used to examine the contribution of land use/land cover to sediment yield, and nitrate and phosphorus loadings, and identify subwatersheds within the Willamette River Basin that would be most affected in the year 2050 relative to three possible future scenarios, which include inherent differences related to conservation, existing planning trends, and open development. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of alternative future scenarios that describe varying degrees of urban development and human use on hydrological response related to water quality. Results of this study suggest that the amount of forest along streams and agriculture consistently explained a high percentage of variation in nutrients. The AGWA-SWAT model was used to simulate change in sediment yield, nitrate and phosphorus transported with surface runoff for the three future scenarios. With regard to nitrate, the greatest increase was associated with subwatersheds with agricultural land use and urban areas. Although the model predicted some improvement in basin headwaters for all scenarios, nitrate loadings are expected to decrease under the conservation scenario. The largest decrease was observed in the Coast Range. With regard to phosphorus loadings, the greatest reduction was observed in subwatersheds draining predominantly forest areas. The greatest increase was observed under the open development scenario in subwatersheds with agricultural land use. Urbanization and agriculture are presumed to be the major environmental stressors affecting watershed condition of the Willamette River Basin.

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder Kepner is a research ecologist, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Landscape Ecology Branch, Las Vegas, NV 89119. Email: kepner.william@epa.gov. Semmens is a research physical scientist, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO. Hernandez is a research hydrologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Tucson, AZ. Goodrich is a research hydraulic engineer, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Tucson, AZ. preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.