California and adjacent regions received record-breaking precipitation in the winters of 2016-2017 and 2022-2023, causing extraordinary damage and severe societal impacts. However, subseasonal to seasonal predictive skill for Californian winter precipitation has remained persistently low. Furthermore, these extreme hydroclimate events occurred during La Niña conditions, which are traditionally associated with dry conditions in California. A fundamental lack of predictability has been suggested. This study shows that anomalous early-winter heating over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) played a key role in driving the extreme precipitation based on observational analyses and Earth system model experiments. In the control simulation, the model failed to reproduce the observed very warm 2-m air temperature anomaly over the TP and the extreme precipitation over California. After improving the temperature initialization with a mask over the TP, the model reproduced most of the observed TP 2-m temperature anomaly and successfully generated about 56% (January 2017) and 38% (March 2023) of the observed extreme precipitation anomalies over California and adjacent regions. The TP heating modulated a Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain wave train, which in turn affected atmospheric rivers and triggered Rossby wave breaking over the northeastern Pacific and the western coast of North America. Both processes are well known as major contributors to extreme precipitation in the western United States. These results suggest that the two catastrophic winter precipitation events were predictable from remote land-surface thermal conditions and identify high-elevation terrestrial temperature anomalies as a previously unidentified source of subseasonal to seasonal predictability for winter extreme hydroclimate events.

Aerosols affect radiation, cloud properties, convection, air temperature, and large-scale circulation, yet their influence on precipitation distribution over the Maritime Continent (MC), a complex tropical region composed of islands interspersed with shallow seas, remains poorly understood. Using high-resolution cloud-system resolving model simulations, satellite observations, and reanalysis data, we demonstrate that rising aerosol concentrations amplify oceanic precipitation more than they suppress land precipitation, thereby increasing the sea-to-land precipitation ratio over the MC. This shift is supported by observations and contrasts with the land-enhanced precipitation distribution seen in pristine simulations or those without aerosol radiative effects. Our results underscore that aerosol-induced radiative cooling stabilizes the lower troposphere more over land than over the ocean, enhancing low-level convergence and convection over the sea. Moreover, high aerosol concentrations delay the diurnal precipitation peak over land from late afternoon to midnight, driven by diminished daytime heating and subsequent nighttime increases in moist static energy—an interesting pattern evident in some observed high-aerosol days.

In June 2024,southern China(S.China)experienced record-breaking rainfall events(Fig.1c).According to the National Climate Center's June 2024 Climate Impact Assessment,since the start of the Meiyu season on June 10th,the precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin during June 10th-30th was 49.2％above the long-term average,marking the second highest rainfall in the basin since 1961(The co-authors,QP.Li and G.Xu of CMA provide this information).The heaviest rainstorms occurred during June 9th-July 2nd,with the duration and impact range exceeding that of June 1998,when also experienced extraordinary June precipitation and flooding in S.China.Associated with these catastrophic rainfall events,a large number of geological disasters occurred,such as landslides and urban flooding.The cause of this catastrophic pre-cipitation remains unidentified.It is,therefore,imperative to understand the underlying causes and make skillful predictions of such extreme hydroclimatic events for adequate monitoring,prevention,and mitigation efforts.

In the present study, a multivariate probabilistic framework is used to identify the meridional positions of regional tropical edges (RTEs), which are based on two variables: sea level pressure and precipitation minus evaporation. This new defined metric effectively captures inter-annual variability and long-term trend of the commonly adopted zonal mean tropical edge based on meridional mass stream function and near-surface winds. Besides, pronounced RTE trends are primarily located over the oceanic regions, and the terrestrial areas exhibit substantial inter-annual variability. These results are consistent among three modern reanalysis datasets. Moreover, the impacts of climate modes on RTE are investigated. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode are important both on the inter-annual variations and long-term trends of RTE. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is more inclined to affect long-term contribution rather than inter-annual relationship, and the Pacific-North American teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation highlight the inter-annual relationship with RTE in the specific regions, such as North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Africa, respectively.

The regional climate variability in peninsular Southeast Asia (PSEA) can influence springtime biomass burning (BB) aerosol emissions and associated transport patterns. To comprehend the interannual variation of regional climate and its impact on PSEA BB, a diagnostic analysis based on the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) dataset and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations from 2000 to 2019 has presented. Employing principal component, composite, and correlation analyses, this study identified four climatic factors governing the emission and transport of PSEA BB aerosols: (i) a low-level anticyclone (suppressed monsoon trough) in the Bay of Bengal, (ii) the relative strength of the anticyclone over the South China Sea, (iii) the Pacific subtropical high, and (iv) low-level westerlies from PSEA to Taiwan. Additionally, BB emissions and transport significantly correlate with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the El Niño year, increased anticyclones in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea accompanied the stronger westerlies, which enhanced BB aerosol emission and transport. The diagnostic results of this study can contribute to a better understanding and improved model simulations of aerosol-climate interactions in South and Southeast Asian monsoon regions.

The interaction between clouds and radiation is a key process within the climate system, and assessing the impacts of that interaction provides valuable insights into both the present-day climate and future projections. Many modeling experiments have been designed over the years to probe the impact of the cloud radiative effect (CRE) on the climate, including those that seek to disrupt the mean CRE effect and those that only disrupt the covariance of the CRE with the circulation. Seven such experimental designs have been added to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) of the US Department of Energy. These experiments include both the first and second iterations of the Clouds On/Off Klimate Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE) experimental design, as well as the cloud-locking method. This paper documents the code changes necessary to implement such experiments and also provides detailed instructions for how to run them. Analyses across experiment types provide valuable insights and confirm the findings of prior studies, including the role of cloud radiative heating toward intensifying the monsoon, intensifying rain rates, and poleward expansion of the general circulation owing to cloud feedbacks.

The objectives of 7-SEAS/BASELInE (Seven SouthEast Asian Studies/Biomass-burning Aerosols & Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles & Interactions Experiment) campaigns in spring 2013–2015 were to synergize measurements from uniquely distributed ground-based networks (e.g., AERONET, MPLNET) and sophisticated platforms (e.g., SMARTLabs, regional contributing instruments), along with satellite observations/retrievals and regional atmospheric transport/chemical models to establish a critically needed database, and to advance our understanding of biomass-burning aerosols and trace gases in Southeast Asia (SEA). We present a satellite-surface perspective of 7-SEAS/BASELInE and highlight scientific findings concerning: (1) regional meteorology of moisture fields conducive to the production and maintenance of low-level stratiform clouds over land, (2) atmospheric composition in a biomass-burning environment, particularly tracers/markers to serve as important indicators for assessing the state and evolution of atmospheric constituents, (3) applications of remote sensing to air quality and impact on radiative energetics, examining the effect of diurnal variability of boundary-layer height on aerosol loading, (4) aerosol hygroscopicity and ground-based cloud radar measurements in aerosol-cloud processes by advanced cloud ensemble models, and (5) implications of air quality, in terms of toxicity of nanoparticles and trace gases, to human health. This volume is the third 7-SEAS special issue (after Atmospheric Research, vol. 122, 2013; and Atmospheric Environment, vol. 78, 2013) and includes 27 papers published, with emphasis on air quality and aerosol-cloud effects on the environment. BASELInE observations of stratiform clouds over SEA are unique, such clouds are embedded in a heavy aerosol-laden environment and feature characteristically greater stability over land than over ocean, with minimal radar surface clutter at a high vertical spatial resolution. To facilitate an improved understanding of regional aerosol-cloud effects, we envision that future BASELInE-like measurement/modeling needs fall into two categories: (1) efficient yet critical in-situ profiling of the boundary layer for validating remote-sensing/retrievals and for initializing regional transport/chemical and cloud ensemble models, and (2) fully utilizing the high observing frequencies of geostationary satellites for resolving the diurnal cycle of the boundary-layer height as it affects the loading of biomass-burning aerosols, air quality and radiative energetics.

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is one of the most climate-sensitive regions around the world. Aerosols imported from adjacent regions reach their peak during the pre-monsoon season and play a vital role in the TP environment. However, the strong interannual variation in aerosols transported to the TP has not been fully understood. Here, we show that the interannual variability of pre-monsoon aerosols transported to the TP is influenced more by rainfall over the southern Himalayas than near-surface wind. Rainfall modulates fire events and biomass burning emissions and reduces aerosols over the TP by wet scavenging. Contrary to the role of wind in increasing aerosol transport, the positive correlation between wind and aerosols in the TP reported in previous studies is contributed by the negative interannual correlations between wind and rainfall and between rainfall and fire events over the southern Himalayas. This study highlights the co-variability of wind and rainfall and their confounding impacts on aerosols in the southern Himalayas and over the TP. With pre-monsoon rainfall projected to increase in adjacent regions of southern TP, aerosol transport to the TP may be mitigated in the future.

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) is a region known for its strong atmospheric convection, which plays a key role in global climate. However, in recent decades, the IPWP has experienced human-induced warming, and it has been observed to have a non-linear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation. Despite the rising SSTs, the increase in precipitation is limited until a specific SST, which is defined as saturation threshold SST (STT). The STT indicates a distinct transition before and after the STT, highlighting the non-linear response of precipitation to SST. Nevertheless, the impact of warmer climates on the SST-precipitation relationship and STT remains uncertain. To investigate future changes in this relationship, we analyzed a joint distribution of SST and precipitation using the historical data and three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We examined the near future (2041–2060), and far future (2081–2100). Our findings reveal that the STT increases with the shift in mean state due to the involvement of atmospheric stratification. This increase is observed across all three scenarios in both future periods, with the SSP5-8.5 scenario exhibiting the most substantial rise during the far future. The warming climate leads to a more pronounced warming in the upper troposphere than the surface, resulting in tropospheric stabilization. This process contributes to the increase in STT through moist-adiabatic lapse rate adjustment. Additionally, the weakening of vertical motion constrains the increase in precipitation, despite the availability of abundant moisture. This study sheds light on the changing SST-precipitation relationship and provides a possible mechanism for the limited increase in precipitation. Therefore, this study offers a background for a better understanding of the non-monotonic response of precipitation to SST in the context of climate change.

In this study, we investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by (a) a control experiment with the present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO2 concentration, (b) P4K, the same as in (a) but with a uniform increase of 4K in the SST globally, and (c) the same as in (a), but with an imposed SST and CO2 concentration from the outputs of the coupled E3SM forced by a 4xCO2 concentration. We found that as the surface warmed under P4K and 4xCO2, both convective and stratiform rain increased. Importantly, there was an increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of the precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than the ocean, and more so under 4xCO2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation was facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in the vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating, and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation–cloud–circulation organization from the control and P4K to 4xCO2. The results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, that is, P4K, was the primary cause contributing to an organization structure resembling the well-known mesoscale convective system (MCS), with increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO2 atmospheric radiative heating and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplified the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increases in the surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO2 was the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, a fast and large increase in the land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture resulted in a strong reduction in the land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, and more so under 4xCO2, are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, that is, the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when it eventually occurs, due to the release of a large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a significant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/floods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/flood over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identified where June precipitation is significantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT effect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT effect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST effect has also been tested and 6 regions with significant SST effects were identified in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT effect is a first-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST effect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefly presented.

Using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) re-analyses, we have examined recent trends (2000-2019) in transport of surface carbonaceous aerosols (CAs), that is, organic carbon and black carbon, to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). We find a significant increased concentration of UTLS CA, linked to a linear trend in an expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA). Over core monsoon latitudes (25 degrees-35 degrees N), the trends in UTLS CA are enabled by increased upward transport from surface sources via an intensified monsoon meridional circulation, with increased latent heating over the southern Tibetan Plateau and foothill regions, enhanced by feedback processes associated with radiative heating by UTLS CA. In the extra-tropics, increased UTLS CA stems primarily from an extended source of increased wildfire emissions over eastern Siberia and northern Asia, coincident with a large-scale anomalous anticyclone with enhanced surface warming and drying near (80 degrees-120 degrees E, 55 degrees-70 degrees N). Here, CAs are transported upward from the surface to the ULS, likely by increased pyro-convection associated with enhanced wildfires, and enter the tropical UTLS via increased equatorward transport on the eastern flanks of anomalous upper-level anticyclones, coupled to the expanded ASMA. Overall, the increasing UTLS CA trends associated with expansion of the ASMA are consistent with a hydrostatic expansion of a warming troposphere, reflected in a rise in the tropical tropopause and consequential dynamical adjustments of the ASM subtropical jetstream, modulating the climate of the greater ASM region.

Biomass burning aerosols (BBA) emitted from Southeast Asia in boreal spring can alter the regional climate via their strong radiative effect. In this study, we have examined the radiative impacts of BBA on the atmospheric circulation and rainfall during the emission season (April–May) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry module. Results show that the surface cooling and the atmospheric heating induced by the semi-direct radiative effect of BBA can exert regional heterogeneous influences on precipitation over Southeast Asia and downwind southern China, by disturbing the atmospheric stability, regional circulation and moisture transport. Increased stability (cooling below and warming above) within the planetary boundary layer inhibits local shallow convection and rainfall over mainland Southeast Asia, leading to a build-up of available convective potential energy that favors precipitation downstream in coastal South China. On the other hand, increased solar heating by absorbing aerosols can serve as an anomalous heat source in the low-mid troposphere, inducing a low-level cyclonic wind anomaly and convergence and a mid-level anticyclonic wind anomaly and divergence, along with strong ascending motion reaching the mid-high troposphere. Eventually, the modified stability and regional moisture transport lead to significant redistribution of precipitation. The enhanced (weakened) moist and warm southwesterly wind due to BBA increase (decrease) rainfall over the southern coast (northern inland) of southern China. Extremely, enhanced heavy rain events are found to be associated with an intensified low-level jet stream along coastal South China.

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction in boreal spring and summer months, which contains a significant number of high-signal events, is scientifically challenging and prediction skill has remained poor for years. Tibetan Plateau (TP) spring observed surface -temperatures show a lag correlation with summer precipitation in several remote regions, but current global land-atmosphere coupled models are unable to represent this behavior due to significant errors in producing observed TP surface temperatures. To address these issues, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program launched the "Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction" (LS4P) initiative as a community effort to test the impact of land temperature in high-mountain regions on S2S prediction by climate models: more than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this project. After using an innovative new land state initialization approach based on observed surface 2-m temperature over the TP in the LS4P experiment, results from a multimodel ensemble provide evidence for a causal relationship in the observed association between the Plateau spring land temperature and summer precipitation over several regions across the world through teleconnections. The influence is underscored by an out-of-phase oscillation between the TP and Rocky Mountain surface temperatures. This study reveals for the first time that high-mountain land temperature could be a substantial source of S2S precipitation predictability, and its effect is probably as large as ocean surface temperature over global "hotspot" regions identified here; the ensemble means in some "hotspots" produce more than 40% of the observed anomalies. This LS4P approach should stimulate more follow-on explorations.

Using MERRA2 reanalyses, we have examined the long-term (2000-2019) trends and transport of surface pollutants, CO, BC and OC from surface to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during the Asian summer monsoon. We find a strong linear trend indicating an expansion and strengthening of the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA), in conjunction with increased concentration of CO, BC and OC in the UTLS, including the Aerosol Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). The UTLS trend in CO can be tracked to increased upward transport primarily from surface sources near 25-35oN, in association with the expansion/strengthening of the AMA, and a northward displacement of ascending branch of the monsoon meridional circulation. In contrast, near 25-35oN, BC and OC trends show significant reduction from surface to mid-troposphere, coupled a weak increase at UTLS (above 250 -100 hPa). The reduction in surface and tropospheric BC and OC likely reflects reduced emission due to the clean air acts in East Asia. Additionally, heavier rainfall associated with the enhanced ascent and wet scavenging may also contribute to the strong reduction in tropospheric BC and OC. The increase in UTLS OC/BC appears to stem from increased and extended biomass burning near surface sources located in extratropical latitudes (70-130o E, 55-70o N). The OC/BC aerosols are transported upward by vertical mixing over the source regions, and enter the tropical UTLS through horizonal diffusive processes. Additionally, enhanced penetrative convection in the anomalous ascent regions during the peak monsoon season may also play a role in further enhancing the monsoon ascent, lifting ambient hydrophobic OC/BC and water vapor in the mid-to-upper troposphere to higher elevations, resulting in enhanced ice-cloud fraction, increased latent and radiative heating in the UTLS/ATAL region.

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is one of the world’s strongest monsoon systems that brings about eighty percent of the annual rainfall to the Indian subcontinent and impacts the livelihood of more than a quarter of the world’s population. Meanwhile, Asia is the world’s second largest dust source—with major deserts in the Middle East, Central and East Asia. The interactions between the Asian dust and the ISM have received increasing attention in recent decades. Dust particles can modulate the circulation and precipitation of the ISM through absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation when suspending in the atmosphere and when deposited in snow and ice at surface and by acting as nuclei of liquid and ice clouds. In turn, the ISM can affect dust emissions, transport, and deposition through atmospheric circulation and wet scavenging. This review provides a) an overview of several physical mechanisms behind the interactions between the ISM rainfall and the Asian dust particularly the Middle East dust, b) a new hypothesis to explain the observed positive correlation between the Middle East dust and the ISM rainfall, and c) a summary of current progress and challenges in dust simulation in climate models. Finally, we propose future research directions aimed at improving dust–monsoon simulations in terms of dust long-term variability, absorbing property, and anthropogenic contributions.