Background: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon.Methods/Principal Findings: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5%) are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67%) and found that 17 of these (27%) are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions.Conclusions/Significance: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

Over the past century, regional fisheries for Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) have been managed primarily for their provisioning function, not for ecological support and cultural significance. We examine the resilience of the regional salmon fisheries of Japan, the Russian Far East, Alaska, British Columbia, and Washington-Oregon-California (WOC) in terms of their provisioning function. Using the three dimensions of the adaptive cycle-capital, connectedness, and resilience-we infer the resilience of the five fisheries based on a qualitative assessment of capital accumulation and connectedness at the regional scale. In our assessment, we evaluate natural capital and connectedness and constructed capital and connectedness. The Russian Far East fishery is the most resilient, followed by Alaska, British Columbia, Japan, and WOC. Adaptive capacity in the fisheries is contingent upon high levels of natural capital and connectedness and moderate levels of constructed capital and connectedness. Cross-scale interactions and global market demand are significant factors in reduced resilience. Greater attention to ecological functioning and cultural signification has the potential to increase resilience in Pacific salmon ecosystems.

There is a great opportunity to advance our understanding of salmon life history modeling by expanding the use of quantitative data thereby improving model efficacy and precision. However, a lack of basic and consistent data documentation frustrates secondary researchers' attempts to identify extant data and evaluate its suitability for use. We apply preliminary results of State of the Salmon's North Pacific Salmon Monitoring Activity Inventory, to demonstrate the potential of simple metadata (data about data) to rapidly appraise data deficiencies. We focus on sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in Bristol Bay, Alaska using elementary but standardized information about long term, freshwater adult and juvenile abundance and age composition monitoring efforts in the region. We classify monitoring into either that of a metapopulation (Tier 2) or individual populations (Tier 3). To accommodate data on catch or harvest from coastal fisheries (e.g., test fisheries) that are often used as a measure of abundance or run timing, we established a Tier 1 (regional grouping); however, in this chapter we do not consider Tier 1 activities. At the Tier 2 level, spawner-to-spawner ratios can be developed for every one of the nine Bristol Bay sockeye stocks and stage-specific life tables, including juvenile stages, can be populated for two out of the nine-the Wood and Kvichak river systems. Each of these drainages has historic or contemporary, long term abundance and biological surveys for fry/parr, smolts, and adults. Moreover, routine adult estimates and biological sampling occurs at the Tier 3 level in these areas, largely due to the long standing research activities of the University of Washington's Alaska Salmon Program. Given our current understanding of data needs in a variety of research areas, we also present a recommended set of 'core' metadata elements to facilitate evaluation of primary data for use by secondary researchers. Ultimately, it is hoped that this exercise will help generate more and improved documentation among those who conduct salmon monitoring. With concerted attention to documentation throughout the data life cycle, time and costs associated with salmon modeling science and other secondary research activities can be reduced and, accordingly, advance the scientific community's contribution to salmon conservation.

Freshwater ecosystems are declining in quality globally, but a lack of data inhibits identification of areas valuable for conservation across national borders. We developed a biological measure of conservation value for six species of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in catchments of the northern Pacific across Canada, China, Japan, Russia, and the United States. We based the measure on abundance and life-history richness and a model-based method that filled data gaps. Catchments with high conservation value ranged from California to northern Russia and included catchments in regions that are strongly affected by human development (e.g., Puget Sound). Catchments with high conservation value were less affected by agriculture and dams than other catchments, although only 1% were within biodiversity reserves. Our set of high-value areas was largely insensitive to simulated error, although classification remained uncertain for 3% of catchments. Although salmon face many threats, we propose they will be most likely to exhibit resilience into the future if a complementary mosaic of conservation strategies can be proactively adopted in catchments with healthy salmon populations. Our analysis provides an initial map of where these catchments are likely to be located.

We assess the quantity and quality of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) monitoring in two regions in North America (Fraser River, British Columbia and Bristol Bay, Alaska). We classify monitoring into two discrete types: that of a “parent” metapopulation (Tier 2), and individual populations (Tier 3). Effort within the Fraser River is focused more intensively at Tier 3, and consists of methods that provide relatively accurate counts of spawners. The monitoring in Bristol Bay is comprehensive and robust at Tier 2. While Tier 3 monitoring occurs throughout Bristol Bay, it is mostly in the form of aerial surveys, which provide less accurate estimates of spawner abundance. A rich set of data exists from visual ground surveys at Tier 3 in the Wood River, Alaska, drainage, but these data have not been analyzed to address population persistence, and there is a clear gap in reliable data on individual populations inhabiting the other major drainages in Bristol Bay. The overall level of monitoring efforts in the Fraser River basin, standardized to the amount of salmon spawning habitat, is conservatively four times higher than that currently expended in Bristol Bay. We encourage investments in continued monitoring and assessments of individual populations in the Wood River drainage, and recommend expanding efforts to include population scale monitoring in other drainages within the Bristol Bay region. All correspondence should be addressed to P. Rand. e-mail: prand@wildsalmoncenter.org Comparison of Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) Monitoring in the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada and Bristol Bay, Alaska, USA Peter S. Rand1, Cathy P. Kellon1, Xanthippe Augerot1, Matthew Goslin1, James R. Irvine2, and Gregory T. Ruggerone3 1State of the Salmon Program, 721 NW 9th Avenue, Suite 280, Portland, Oregon 97209, USA 2Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Road, Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7, Canada 3Natural Resources Consultants, Inc., 1900 West Nickerson Street, Suite 207, Seattle, Washington 98119, USA

The Model for Assessing Links Between Ecosystems (MALBEC) is a policy gaming tool with potential to explore the impacts of climate change, harvest policies, hatchery policies, and freshwater habitat capacity changes on salmon at the North Pacific scale. This article provides background information on the MALBEC project, methods, input data, and preliminary results pertaining to (1) hatchery versus wild salmon production in the North Pacific Ocean, (2) rearing, movement, and interactions among Pacific salmon populations in marine environments, (3) marine carrying capacities, density-dependent growth, and survival in Pacific salmon stocks, and (4) climate impacts on productivity in salmon habitat domains across the North Pacific. The basic modeling strategy underlying MALBEC follows the full life cycle of salmon and allows for density-dependence at multiple life stages, and it includes spatially explicit ecosystem considerations for both freshwater and marine habitat. The model is supported by a data base including annual run sizes, catches, spawning escapements, and hatchery releases for 146 regional stock groups of hatchery and wild pink, chum, and sockeye salmon around the North Pacific for the period 1952–2006. For this historical period, various hypotheses about density-dependent interactions in the marine environment are evaluated based on the goodness-of-fit between simulated and observed annual run sizes. Based on the information we used to inform our ocean migration table, interactions among stocks that originate from geographically distant regions are greatest in the Bering Sea in summer–fall and in the eastern subArctic in winter–spring. While the model does not reproduce the observed data for some specific stock groups, it does predict the same overall production pattern that was observed by reconstructing run sizes with catch and escapement data alone. Our preliminary results indicate that simulations that include density-dependent interactions in the ocean yield better fits to the observed run-size data than those simulations without density-dependent interactions in the ocean. This suggests that for any level of ocean productivity, the ocean will only support a certain biomass of fish but that this biomass could consist of different combinations of stocks, stock numbers and individual fish sizes. MALBEC simulations illustrate this point by showing that under scenarios of Pacific-wide reduced hatchery production, the total number of wild Alaskan chum salmon increases, and that such increases are large where density-dependent effects on survival are large and small where they are not. Under scenarios with reduced freshwater carrying capacities for wild stocks, the impacts of density-dependent interactions also lead to relative increases in ocean survival and growth rates for stocks using ocean habitats where density-dependence is large. All correspondence should be addressed to N. Mantua. e-mail: nmantua@u.washington.edu The Salmon MALBEC Project: A North Pacific-scale Study to Support Salmon Conservation Planning Nathan J. Mantua1, Nathan G. Taylor1, Gregory T. Ruggerone2, Katherine W. Myers1, David Preikshot3, Xanthippe Augerot4, Nancy D. Davis1, Brigitte Dorner5, Ray Hilborn1, Randall M. Peterman5, Peter Rand6, Daniel Schindler1, Jack Stanford7, Robert V. Walker1, and Carl J. Walters3 1School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Box 355020, Seattle, WA 98195-5020, USA 2Natural Resources Consultants, Inc., 4039 21st Avenue West, Suite 404207, Seattle, WA 98199, USA 3Fisheries Centre, 2204 Main Mall, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada 4Pangaea Consulting, LLC, 1615 SE Bethel Street, Corvallis, OR 97333-1251, USA 5School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada 6The Wild Salmon Center, 721 NW 9th Ave, Suite 300, Portland, OR 97209, USA 7Flathead Lake Biological Station, University of Montana, 32125 Bio Station Lane, Polson, MT 59860-6815, USA