Under the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" goals, the extent to which land use restructuring shapes regional carbon storage (CS) in inland river basins remains insufficiently quantified. Using the Tarim River Basin as a case study, we integrated multiple datasets at 1 km resolution for five time points from 2000 to 2023, and coupled the InVEST carbon model, PLUS scenario simulations, and GeoDetector analysis within a "pattern-process-projection" framework (PLUS accuracy: 94.31%). From 2000 to 2023, cropland expanded by 1.69 x 10(4) km(2) and construction land nearly doubled, whereas grassland and forestland decreased by 0.89 x 10(4) km(2) and 0.15 x 10(4) km(2), respectively, accompanied by intermittent shrinkage of water bodies. CS across the basin increased slightly from 56.53 x 10(8) t to 56.83 x 10(8) t, indicating overall stability, but with clear spatial contrasts: gains occurred along oasis margins and riparian corridors, while losses emerged in transitional zones converted to cropland and construction land. GeoDetector identified fractional vegetation cover, soil erosion, and soil type as dominant drivers (q > 0.25). Interactions related to fractional vegetation cover (FVC) strengthened after 2010, whereas GDP and population density exerted weaker effects. By 2030, the ecological protection scenario yielded the highest CS (57.10 x 10(8) t), the economic development scenario showed limited gains (+0.08 x 10(8) t), and the natural development scenario approached net neutrality. By integrating multi source data, scenario constraints, and interaction informed driver diagnostics, this study delineates carbon sensitive corridors that are highly accessible and quantifies the carbon benefits of controlling fragmentation, stabilizing cropland density, and optimizing water allocation. The findings provide scientific guidance for land use planning and coordinated water and carbon governance in arid regions.

Under global warming, spring phenology in northern ecosystems (tundra, boreal forests, temperate grasslands, coniferous forests) has advanced, yet the causes of regional disparities and nonlinear responses remain unclear. While temperature and precipitation are recognized primary drivers, the regulatory role of freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) on the start of growing season (SOS) is largely overlooked. Integrating 20 years (2003-2022) of satellite phenology and climate reanalysis data, this study assesses FTCs frequency impacts on SOS dynamics across the pan-Northern Hemisphere. Despite SOS advancing 1.9 days/decade on average, over 28% of vegetated areas show stable or delayed trends, particularly in boreal forests, alpine regions, and tundra. This pattern is linked to the heterogeneous increase in FTCs frequency, which modulates SOS in biome-specific and nonlinear ways. Frequent FTCs advanced SOS in boreal forests by up to 7 days, likely due to cumulative thermal pulses that reduce dormancy depth. In contrast, desert and temperate forest systems experienced delays exceeding 20 days, associated with repeated low-temperature stress. Sensitivity analyses using ridge regression and generalized additive models revealed that FTCs accounted for up to 14.6% of SOS variability in temperate broadleaf forests-comparable to precipitation and radiation. However, SOS sensitivity to FTCs has declined over time, coinciding with shorter frozen seasons, while sensitivity to shortwave radiation increased. These shifts indicate a reorganization of climatic constraints on phenology. Biomes exhibited divergent sensitivity trajectories: forests and grasslands became more responsive to temperature and radiation, whereas FTCs influence declined in boreal systems but intensified in coniferous and shrub-dominated landscapes. Our findings highlight FTCs as dynamic regulators of phenology that can offset warming-driven advancement.

Abstract. Tree rings serve as precise archives of the environmental conditions that influence tree growth. In this study, we collected tree-ring cores from Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana) in the eastern Tianshan Mountains and developed a robust ring-width chronology. Growth-climate response analysis revealed that total precipitation from the previous July through the current June is the primary factor limiting radial growth in this species, a relationship that remained stable over the period 1961–2020. Based on this strong climatic signal, we reconstructed annual precipitation for the region from 1830 to 2020. The reconstruction explains 37.6 % of the variance in instrumental precipitation records, demonstrating its reliability as a proxy for past climate. The reconstructed series identified distinct dry periods (e.g., 1830–1839, 1863–1868, 1919–1921, 1944–1947, 1975–1979, and 1989–1992) and wet periods (e.g., 1844–1850, 1869–1882, 1886–1899, 1930–1942, 1966–1973, 1980–1988, 1996–2001, and 2004–2018). The validity of our reconstruction is further supported by its strong agreement with other precipitation and drought reconstructions from nearby regions. Moreover, comparison with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) gridded dataset indicates that our reconstruction captures precipitation variability across a broad spatial domain. By extending the instrumental record, this long-term precipitation series significantly enhances our understanding of climatic variability and its spatiotemporal characteristics in the eastern Tianshan Mountains. Notably, the reconstruction reveals a general upward trend in annual precipitation since the 1990s, which may enhance growth and carbon sequestration potential of Schrenk spruce forests in the region.

The escalating frequency and intensity of wildfires globally necessitate a deeper understanding of ecosystem carbon dynamics post-disturbance. This study utilizes a valuable pre- and postfire eddy-covariance dataset from the AU-Wac site to quantify the recovery of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in a carbon-dense Eucalyptus regnans forest following the catastrophic 2009 Black Saturday wildfire. Our findings, derived from Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) modeling of no-fire scenarios and locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS)-smoothed recovery indices (Div and Sub), indicate that the forest returned to an initial net carbon uptake 16 months postfire, exhibited its peak recovery rate at 44 months, and regained prefire NEE levels by 48 months, with a total carbon loss of 44.34 t C/ha. Our analysis, employing random forest (RF) regression, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and Spearman correlation for key factor analysis, considering both lagged and cumulative effects, further reveals a fundamental shift in NEE drivers. From prefire air temperature and soil water content control, postfire NEE became predominantly governed by soil temperature and water content along with atmospheric humidity, exhibiting stronger multifactor couplings. These results emphasize the crucial role of postfire hydrological conditions for recovery and provide critical science-based information for proactive forest management, including prescribed burning and enhanced biodiversity, to mitigate degradation and maintain carbon sequestration in fire-prone regions.

Abstract A fundamental paradigm in global phenology posits that temperature serves as the universal initiator of vegetation growth. Here we demonstrate that this assumption fails catastrophically in water‐limited ecosystems, where precipitation timing—not amount—inverts the canonical hierarchy of climate controls. Integrating 22 years of Enhanced Vegetation Index data with four multi‐source hourly precipitation products across northwestern China's drylands, we reveal that regional spring onset advances at 2.2 days·decade−1 on average, yet the ultra‐arid Tarim Basin (<50 mm annual precipitation) advances by 3.4 days·decade−1 while the Hexi Corridor delays by 0.9 days·decade−1—divergent trajectories that thermal‐centric models cannot reconcile. Most strikingly, nighttime precipitation amount surpasses temperature as the primary spring onset driver in the Tarim Basin Desert Area (TBDA), as indicated by the XGBoost–SHAP attribution framework (5.32), accounting for 24.8% of total SHAP importance and constituting a diagnostic signature of hyperaridity. Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS‐SEM) further showed that in the hyperarid TBDA, nighttime precipitation exerted a stronger total effect on spring onset than daytime precipitation (−0.219 vs. −0.124), and its positive pathway to soil moisture was stronger than that of daytime precipitation. Machine learning attribution and PLS‐SEM together show that diurnal precipitation timing is an important control on dryland phenology, particularly for spring onset in the hyperarid TBDA. These findings extend the question of dryland phenology beyond how much it rains to when precipitation occurs, highlighting the combined roles of thermal forcing, precipitation amount, and precipitation timing in Earth system model development and ecological forecasting across expanding arid regions.

Inland river basins of arid regions, characterized by their fragile ecosystems, are deeply affected by climate change and human activities. Wind prevention and sand fixation service (WPSFS) are crucial in these areas, benefiting both the dust source regions and areas downwind. However, research on the simulation of WPSFS flow in such regions is limited. This study aimed to quantitatively simulate the soil wind erosion modulus (SWEM) and the wind prevention and sand fixation (WPSF) amounts in the Tarim River Basin using the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) model and subsequently analyzed the key driving factors. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was employed to simulate WPSFS flow paths and quantify the extent of beneficiary regions in China. Additionally, the study examined changes in population, Real GDP, and Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) Changes in these regions using socio-economic data. Results showed that high SWEM values were concentrated throughout the central and eastern zones of the basin, whereas high WPSF amounts values were mainly located along the main channel of the Tarim River. Between 2002 and 2019, both potential and actual soil wind erosion (SWE) decreased, while WPSF amounts increased. WPSFS flow paths (3136 paths) spanned northern China and neighboring countries, with beneficiary areas in China concentrated in the north central area, exhibiting a pattern of decreasing benefits from the center outwards. Wind speed and fractional vegetation cover were found to be the most significant environmental factors affecting SWE. The total beneficiary population and the total beneficiary Real GDP of WPSF within China's region show an overall increasing trend; among different LULCs, the total beneficiary area shows an overall increasing trend for grassland, and a decreasing trend for cropland and forestland. This study provides theoretical support for comprehensive desertification management and high-quality regional development in arid inland river basins. Web of science researcher ID ABB-5302-2022.

The China–Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) traverses the ecologically fragile and geologically hazardous Pamir plateau (PP), where glacier dynamics are critical for water resources and ecological stability. This study analyzes glacier changes in the PP segment of CPEC from 2000 to 2022 using Google Earth engine (GEE) and an improved glacier and snow cover extraction method. Results show that before CPEC’s initiation (2000–2014), glacier area fluctuated with an annual increase of 422 km2, peaking in 2010. After 2015, glacier area declined continuously at 1000 km2 per year, reaching a minimum in 2022. Snow cover also declined, especially post-2015. Glacier retreat was most severe in low-altitude regions, particularly in the eastern and southern PP, while higher altitudes (5000–7000 m) exhibited slower retreat. Climatic analysis reveals a strengthening negative correlation between temperature, evapotranspiration, and glacier area, indicating accelerated retreat due to global warming. These findings provide scientific support for ecological protection, water resource management, and geological hazard mitigation along CPEC.

Ecological thresholds play a key role in understanding ecosystem stability and vulnerability, and in predicting the impacts of future environmental changes. This study focused on the Tarim River Basin (TRB), using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to evaluate key ecosystem services (ESs), including carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), and habitat quality (HQ). Through cubic polynomial fitting, we analyzed the responses of these ESs to climate change and fractional vegetation cover (FVC), identifying critical threshold points. Between 2000 and 2020, the TRB experienced slight increases in temperature (+0.028 degrees C per decade) and precipitation (+2.9 mm per decade), while FVC showed significant spatial heterogeneity, with notable declines in the northern mountainous areas. Specific thresholds for ESs were identified: 1.57 degrees C for temperature, 60.3 mm for precipitation, and 16 % for FVC. Exceeding these thresholds triggered varying degrees of functional changes in ESs. Identifying these thresholds is essential for assessing the vulnerability of ESs and improving our understanding of the complex relationships between ESs and environmental changes in the arid area.

Arid inland river basins face growing ecological pressure under climate change and intensive human activity, resulting in severe mismatches between ecosystem services (ESs) supply and demand. Using the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as a case, this study develops an integrated mass-to-value framework and spatial modeling approach to evaluate spatiotemporal dynamics, cross-scale spillovers, and horizontal ecological compensation (EC) for five ESs-water yield (WY), windbreak-sand fixation (SF), habitat quality (HQ), carbon sequestration (CS), and soil retention (SC)-from 2000 to 2023.Results show that total supply values rose from Chinese Yuan (CNY) 1.0 × 1011 to 2.1 × 1011, with SF increasing by 228.13 × 103 CNY·km-2 and WY by 1.44 × 103 CNY·km-2. Demand also climbed substantially, particularly WY and CS, yeqt persistent deficits remained, with average supply-demand ratios for SC and SF staying negative. Breakpoint and potential-field models revealed two spillover corridors-from Kizilsu to Kashgar and from Hejing to Luntai-while strong bidirectional flows connected the TRB with Tibet and Qinghai. EC simulations indicated downstream counties transferred > CNY 3.0 × 1010 annually to upstream and montane zones, with cumulative receipts above CNY 8.0 × 1010 in Hejing and Wuqia. Structural equation modeling identified temperature and evapotranspiration as dominant negative drivers, while NDVI and moderate human interventions exerted positive effects. Unlike previous studies limited to single services or local contexts, this research integrates multi-service and cross-scale spillover analysis with compensation modeling in a large arid basin. The framework provides novel insights into ES imbalance mechanisms and practical guidance for compensation design. It offers a transferable methodology with broad implications for sustainable resource governance in arid inland river systems worldwide.

Oasis expansion-driven by both climate change and human activities-profoundly impacts ecosystem services in arid inland river basins. However, previous studies have predominantly focused on broad-scale climatic or land use changes, lacking a fine-scale spatiotemporal analysis of how oasis expansion specifically drives water-yield dynamics in such basins. To fill this critical gap, this study uses the Ebinur Lake Basin as a representative case, employing a locally calibrated InVEST model combined with Geodetector analysis to systematically quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of water yield and examine the influence of oasis expansion from 2000 to 2020. Water yield is a vital provisioning service underpinning ecological stability and sustainable resource management. Our results indicate that the oasis area expanded significantly (+2.04 x 103 km2 per decade), whereas water yield experienced a declining trend (-8.58 mm per decade). Notably, high water yield values remained concentrated in the adjacent mountainous regions, while the total water supply within oasis areas followed a "rise-then-fall" pattern, with 2010 marking a distinct turning point. Precipitation emerged as the primary determinant of water yield, and the combined influence of precipitation and temperature was found to be the most critical factor shaping its spatial distribution. The introduction of localized parameters into the InVEST model enhances the accuracy of water yield assessments in inland river basins. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating both oasis expansion and climatic variability into water resource management strategies, offering valuable insights for the sustainable evaluation and management of oasis ecosystem services in similar arid regions.

With climate change and human activities, the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) faces increasing risk of desertification. High-altitude desert plants exhibit remarkable resilience, making them ideal for restoring desertified lands on the QXP. Sandrice, a medicinal herb, disperses widely across Asian deserts including the QXP. To elucidate the molecular mechanism of sandrice adaptation to the QXP, in situ metabolome and transcriptome analyses were conducted between high and mid-altitude ecotypes. Comparison analysis revealed that up-regulated genes in the high-altitude ecotype were primarily involved in phenylpropanoid and flavonoid biosynthesis pathways, leading to higher accumulation of these medicinal metabolites in the high-altitude ecotype. Additionally, Ka/Ks analysis indicated significant divergence in DEGs such as FLS, CCoAOMT and HCT between the two ecotypes. Population genetic analysis across altitude gradients showed that FST values for genes in phenylpropanoid and flavonoid biosynthesis pathways were higher than genome-wide FST values. Notably, nine out of 15 genes in these pathways, including FLS and HCT, were fixed in all the high-altitude populations, as a consequence of strong directional selection by the alpine desert environment, which supports phenylpropanoids and flavonoids play critical roles for sandrice adapting to alpine desert environments. Moreover, balancing selection could also facilitate sandrice's spread across diverse desert conditions, whose signal was witnessed in CCoAOMT within the QXP populations. This study bridges our understanding from medicinal metabolites to the genetic basis of alpine ecotypes adapted to harsh environments on the QXP, providing valuable molecular insights and genetic resources for ecosystem restoration and the indigenous nature of high-altitude medicinal plants.

Agriophyllum squarrosum (sand rice), a resilient desert plant with ecological and nutritional significance, has applications in food, forage, and traditional medicine. Despite its traditional use in China for treating inflammatory symptoms such as ophthalmia, urethritis, and oral ulcers, limited phytochemical studies restrict its pharmacological exploration. In this study, ten undescribed isoflavanone derivatives, including dihydroisoflavanones (1-6) and coumaronochromones (7-10), along with thirty-six known compounds (11-46), were isolated from A. squarrosum. The new structures were determined by NMR, HRESIMS, and DFT calculations of their NMR and ECD data, which also led to the structural revision of suaeglaucin C. Anti-inflammatory assays revealed compounds 5 and 21 as potent inhibitors, outperforming L-NMMA, and the structure-activity relationship of the optically active dihydroisoflavones was briefly discussed. All compounds were isolated from this plant for the first time, except for compounds 11, 19, and 20.

In recent years, the shrinkage of terminal lakes in Central Asia has triggered environmental degradation and disrupted the supply of critical ecosystem services (ES). Understanding the tradeoffs and synergies among ES in these basins is essential for promoting sustainable regional development and enhancing ecological resilience. This study quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of five major ES: soil conservation, sand fixation, water yield, carbon storage, and habitat quality using process-based ecosystem models. A Bayesian Network model was constructed to disentangle the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on ES and identify their dominant drivers. To further characterise ES interactions, we developed a directional tradeoff/synergy strength index that captures both the intensity and directionality of inter-ES relationships. The results revealed spatially heterogeneous tradeoff patterns, with certain ES pairs exhibiting strong conflicts despite sharing similar drivers. Scenario-based optimisation highlighted regional differences in ES priorities, for instance, balancing carbon storage and water yield in the Amu Darya Basin, and managing the interplay of sand fixation, water yield, and soil conservation in the Ili River Basin. These findings provide a decision-support basis for targeted ecosystem management in arid terminal lake regions.

Study region: The Jiangsu coast, located along the Yellow Sea, is significance region on the eastern coast of China. Study focus: Storm events can trigger intense current and wave, leading to significant variations in morphology of mudflat. However, the response of mudflat morphology to storm events has not been fully explored due to limited field observations. Based on Delft3D model, a three-dimensional coupled model of current-wave-sediment-topography was developed to simulate the response of mudflat morphology to storm events and investigate the effect of storms with varying paths and intensities on mudflat evolution. New hydrological insights for the region: Mudflat exhibit interlaced areas of erosion and accretion, with accretion predominantly occurring in supratidal zone and erosion primarily happening in intertidal and subtidal zone. A comparison of mudflat morphology before and after storm reveals that alongshore current is the dominant factor affecting sediment transport. Radial sand ridge has an obstructive effect on the transport of eroded sediments during storms of varying paths and intensities. Transport direction of sediments from the south and north are changed because of barrier effect of radial sand ridge, resulting in spatially asymmetric erosion-accretion pattern. The coupled model developed in this research could offers theoretical foundation for elucidating the response mechanisms of mudflat topography in the context of global changes.

Water resources in arid regions are limited, with socio-economic development largely dependent on groundwater extraction, particularly in irrigated oases. Excessive groundwater use can lead to aquifer depletion and land subsidence, yet the mechanisms linking subsidence to groundwater changes across different hydrological units remain inadequately understood. This study investigates the spatiotemporal deformation characteristics in the Sangong River Watershed, China, using InSAR data from 2004 to 2021. The results indicate that subsidence primarily occurs in the upper alluvial plain oases, exhibiting cyclic patterns that correspond with agricultural activities. Subsidence has intensified in recent years, with more severe impacts observed between 2014 and 2021 compared to 2004 to 2010. Regression coefficients between groundwater levels and subsidence vary significantly, influenced by the transition from a single-layered phreatic aquifer to a multilayered phreatic-confined aquifer system. Field investigations at Liuyuhu Farm and Binghu Reservoir highlighted severe infrastructure damage caused by seasonal and differential subsidence. Overexploitation of groundwater before 2006 initiated subsidence, which worsened as cropland expanded by 32.6 % and groundwater extraction increased by 353 % from 2006 to 2014. Although government interventions from 2015 to 2021 reduced extraction rates, drought conditions from 2019 to 2021 exacerbated subsidence, resulting in a cumulative deformation volume of 5.1 x 107 m3 by 2021. The findings underscore the inadequacy of current water resources to meet agricultural demands, leading to continued extraction from static groundwater reserves, which intensifies surface subsidence. This situation necessitates urgent and more effective groundwater management strategies to mitigate further ground subsidence.

Climate change and global carbon neutrality commitments have heightened the importance of ecosystem services in sustaining human well-being and mitigating climate impacts. Major economies, including China, have set dual carbon goals (emission peak and carbon neutrality) that underscore the role of ecosystems as natural carbon sinks and providers of essential services. However, the supply and demand of these services in arid, climate-sensitive regions remain poorly understood under these goals. This study addresses the gap by developing a carbon-centered framework to analyze ecosystem service supply-demand dynamics in Northwest China's arid region, a representative dryland area. Using integrated remote sensing data, the InVEST model, and statistical analyses, we quantified five key ecosystem services-carbon storage, water yield, soil conservation, food production, and habitat quality-and assessed their supply and demand from 2000 to 2020. The results show that ecosystem carbon storage increased by approximately 0.26 billion metric tons over two decades, reflecting notable gains in natural carbon sequestration. Water resources, in contrast, exhibited a persistent supply-demand imbalance, with water supply consistently falling short of societal demand. We also found pronounced spatial mismatches: areas of high service supply (e.g. mountainous and oasis regions) often did not overlap with areas of high demand (irrigated farmlands and cities). These misalignments endured despite improvements in vegetation cover and climate conditions. Our findings provide insights for ecological zoning and management in arid regions under carbon neutrality goals, suggesting that targeted strategies-from strengthening carbon sink conservation to balancing water resource allocation-are needed to align ecosystem service supply with societal needs in drylands.

AbstractOver the past two decades, China has experienced frequent extreme events and substantial land cover changes. Site‐scale assessments of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) are constrained by the fixed land cover types at eddy covariance towers and short observation periods at existing sites. Using the Eurasian Meteorological Stations Net Ecosystem Exchange product (EAM‐NEE), this study evaluated China's carbon exchange dynamics from 2003 to 2018. Results show that southwestern forests exhibit the highest annual carbon sink capacity, while the establishment of national forest parks has contributed positively to enhancing the carbon sink capacity of northern forests. Substantial uncertainties in NEE evaluation were observed, largely due to variations in scales and thresholds. Our findings highlight the importance of site‐scale assessments in evaluating the carbon sink capacity and informing targeted strategies for China's dual‐carbon goals. Despite limitations in regional representation, the EAM‐NEE product provides valuable insights for localized assessments.