Drought risk assessment provides a vital basis for drought relief and prevention. We developed a dynamic agricultural drought risk (DADR) assessment model to predict drought trends and their impacts on crop yield in real time. A weather generator was employed to produce daily meteorological scenarios to simulate drought trends stochastically. Then, it was used to drive a crop model for simulating drought-induced yield loss. The yield loss rate was calculated to assess the DADR, whereas the cumulative yield loss rate was calculated to measure the cumulative impacts of drought on yield. The drought that occurred in the Liaoning Province in 2000 was selected as a case study, and the DADR was assessed weekly during the maize growth period. The statistical parameters of historical meteorological data were used to prove the rationality of meteorological scenarios. The crop data from 1996 to 2012 were used for crop model calibration and verification. The results showed that, on July 3, 2000, the majority of the Liaoning Province experienced severe or moderate DADR, which showed an increasing trend from east to west, while the highest DADR (over 35%) was noted in Fuxin and Chaoyang. The drought during the maize growth period in 2000 caused an average cumulative yield loss rate of 62.4%. The drought in the early seeding and milk maturity stages had a negligible impact on maize yield, contrary to that in the jointing to tasseling period. Our study provides insights into the implementation of drought relief measures and the development of drought monitoring systems.

Water Resources Carrying Capacity is an important indicator of water sustainable and economic development, yet few studies investigated a bibliometric analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity research. In this research, we proposed a four-staged bibliometric analysis method for Water Resources Carrying Capacity studies following the René Descartes’s Discourse on the Method guidelines which makes the bibliometric analysis process more systematic. Our four-staged bibliometric analysis method contains a refined screening process of the records, which can successfully delete poorly correlated data from tens of thousands of data within a short period of time and determined the subject-related data. The screening results shortlisted 271 records from an initial 16,769. We further conducted a complete bibliometric, statistical and meta-analysis of the 271 records. The results showed that China is the major country that conducts research on Water Resources Carrying Capacity. Modeling in various forms and system dynamics are the mainstream methods of Water Resources Carrying Capacity research. Water Resources Carrying Capacity is intrinsically linked to population carrying capacity, groundwater resources, urbanization and water shortage. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the research of Water Resources Carrying Capacity, we divided the research progress into five stages lastly. The method proposed in this research can provide reference for future bibliometric studies.

An extreme drought occurred in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022, inflicting huge impacts nationwide. To provide a reference for drought prevention and mitigation, this paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the drought in the Yangtze River Basin in terms of its characteristics, causes, impacts, and response strategies. It concludes that this extreme drought stood out by its long duration, wide impact range, and severe intensity, as a combined result of abnormal high-temperature weather and massive social water consumption. Serious impacts are observed in various fields of the economy, including agricultural irrigation, urban and rural water supply, power generation, and navigation. Finally, drought mitigation measures and effects are examined, and future drought response and mitigation strategies are proposed.

Climate change is one of the main reasons for frequent severe droughts in many areas of China. At present, there is a lack of research on the occurrence and impact of large-scale and long-lasting extreme drought events in the historical period. This study utilized the ‘Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun’ (rain and snow record) data from the Qing Palace Archives for the Qing Dynasty and records from modern meteorological stations as data sources, combined with key parameters of the study area obtained by field experiments. The improved Green-Ampt infiltration model was used to convert historical data into precipitation data, and the precipitation anomaly percentage (PA) was calculated as a meteorological drought indicator. The spatial distribution and evolution of historical extreme drought events in Shanxi Province were studied and are discussed. The results show a severe shortage of rainfall followed by severe drought events between 1875 and 1879 in Shanxi Province. The shortage level reached its peak in 1877. Extreme drought events occurred from 1875 to 1877 when the whole province was heavily drought-stricken, with annual PA values of -65%, -64%, and -70%, respectively. Reconstructing extreme historical droughts has an important practical significance in coping with drought catastrophes that may occur now or in the future and contributes to the development of disaster prevention and preparedness strategies, disaster reduction policies, and risk prevention and control.

Quantifying historical extreme drought is crucial to better understand and contextualize historical extreme droughts and prepare for extreme drought events that may occur in the future. However, the potential impacts of extreme droughts such as those in historical records considering modern day drought resistance and mitigation capacities remain unclear. In order to present the methods of reconstructing historical drought recurrence and conduct a historical drought recurrence scenario analysis under the current defense conditions, a modern day recurrence of the Guangxu drought during the Qing Dynasty from 1875 to 1879 was proposed using the Qing Palace Archives. In which, the historical annual precipitation in core drought areas was quantitatively reconstructed based on snow-rain records derived from the Qing Dynasty archives. And the extreme Guangxu drought was analyzed by establishing the corresponding relationship between precipitation anomaly percentage and the historical drought catalog. This allowed for the characterization of possible impacts of severe drought on water resources, water supply, food production, and economy under current defense conditions. The results showed that if the Guangxu drought occurred today under the current natural geographical conditions, core drought areas like Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, and Shandong would experience water shortages greater than 50% of their multi-year average water resources. In addition, we found that water transfer projects and large-medium-sized reservoirs will play central roles in drought mitigation in the event of an historical extreme drought.

With the rapid development of China’s social economy, the phenomenon of unbalanced regional economic development is increasingly obvious. The shortage of water resources in northwest China is an important constraint to local development. The study on the water resources carrying capacity of the Zhuanglang River Basin plays an important role in the development of local economy; thus, we evaluate the water resources situation of Zhuanglang River Basin by using hydrology-related calculation method, combining with field investigation, visiting relevant departments, and referring to relevant data. Meanwhile, the water resources carrying capacity of 3 counties and 12 townships in the Zhuanglang River Basin in the current year are studied and analyzed based on methods such as fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and quantitative calculation. Results indicate that the carrying capacity of water resources in Zhuanglang river basin can mostly meet the needs of township, but it is necessary to further optimize the water resources carrying capacity of the Zhuanglang River Basin from the four systems of water resources, society, economy, and ecology in the future. Besides, the results of quantitative calculation show that the maximum economic scale that water resources can withstand in most areas of the Zhuanglang River Basin is the overall well-off level, that is, the per capita domestic water is 80L/(d· person), and the per capita GDP is 10000 yuan/person. But there is still a certain gap to achieve the level, when the people are well-off in an all-round way, the two indexes are correspondently raised to 120L/(d· person), and the per capita GDP is 30,000 yuan/person.

开展历史典型场次特大干旱事件重演研究,能够为极端状况下的干旱灾害防御提供参考,具有重要的战略意义.本文提出了历史特大干旱重演影响分析方法,并以明崇祯大旱为例,开展现状防御条件下重演情景分析,估算一旦发生明崇祯大旱对供水、粮食以及经济的可能影响.研究结果表明:在现状自然地理和水利工程条件下,若发生类似明崇祯大旱,核心旱区9省市连续7年年平均缺水率为21.9％,最高为38.7％;年平均粮食减产率为27.7％,最高为39.2％;年平均因旱直接经济损失占本区域GDP比例为5.3％,最高为11.1％;占全国GDP比例年平均达到2.2％,最高为4.53％.可见,一旦发生类似历史上的极端干旱,严重缺水将会对供水安全、粮食安全和经济安全造成重大威胁,因此需要引起高度重视,做好巨灾风险应对准备.

Drought is always triggered by long-term deficit of precipitation and extreme temperature, which had led to huge losses of the economy in China. But to what extent have we defined the drought scale in contrast to farmland, river basin, grassland, forests and other types of the underlying surface? It is a vital issue for improving the accuracy of drought monitoring model/system. This study focused on developing an integrated drought assessment model which can reveal the relatively reasonable true drought circumstances and improve the monitoring ability of professional drought monitoring operation system. The object-oriented method was merged into the drought monitoring model. In order to verify the accuracy of the integrated drought assessment model, the model was applied in the professional operated drought monitoring system of Anhui Province. The monitoring system can automatically serve the daily drought monitoring map which directly shows the spatial distribution and intruded area within 4 diverse drought levels. The monitoring results indicated Anhui Province has suffered a persistent drought since the second half of 2019. And the severe drought was released by effective precipitation during August 10-13, which was caused by Typhoon Lekima. Then the drought-prone region and drought severity were consistently increasing until the extensive precipitation process in the whole province during November 26-27. The real drought development and changing phases were accurately detected by the integrated drought assessment model. And the drought impact areas from the model were coincidence with the reported data from local government. Beside that, monitoring results were approved by the local professional personnel and experts for drought monitoring.