The long term consequences of unwanted pregnancies carried to term on mothers have not been much explored. We use data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) and propose a novel approach, namely two team cross-screening, to study the possible effects of unwanted pregnancies carried to term on various aspects of mothers' later-life mental health, physical health, economic well-being and life satisfaction. Our method, unlike existing approaches to observational studies, enables the investigators to perform exploratory data analysis, confirmatory data analysis and replication in the same study. This is a valuable property when there is only a single data set available with unique strengths to perform exploratory, confirmatory and replication analysis. In two team cross-screening, the investigators split themselves into two teams and the data is split as well according to a meaningful covariate. Each team then performs exploratory data analysis on its part of the data to design an analysis plan for the other part of the data. The complete freedom of the teams in designing the analysis has the potential to generate new unanticipated hypotheses in addition to a prefixed set of hypotheses. Moreover, only the hypotheses that looked promising in the data each team explored are forwarded for analysis (thus alleviating the multiple testing problem). These advantages are demonstrated in our study of the effects of unwanted pregnancies on mothers' later life outcomes.
Managers confronting important strategic decisions often receive diagnostic information sequentially over time. As new information becomes available, they may need to update their understanding of the situation and possibly revise their preferences. During a decision, as a preference develops for one alternative course of action, a nonconscious goal of maintaining consistency between that preference, however tentative, and the new information can lead to an interpretation of that information so as to support the current preference. This tendency to bias or distort information to support the currently preferred option can in turn lead to even greater confidence in that leading option, despite the increase in confidence being unwarranted by the information itself. The result of such a biased decision process can be overconfidence in the chosen course of action. To show this, in the current work, experienced managers engaged in a realistic business decision task with their levels of information distortion and confidence tracked throughout the decision. Over the course of the decision, confidence in the leading action increased as a function of distortion. The results confirmed that distortion-driven confidence can develop even when decision makers have no prior preference for one of the outcomes.
Objectives To determine the responsiveness of central sensitization measures, Conditioned Pain Modulation (CPM) and Central Sensitization Inventory (CSI), in older adults undergoing an exercise program and to compare their responsiveness with outcomes measures of pain and disability. Design This is a prospective registered (RBR-2qyc425) responsiveness study with a pre-post interventional study design. Methods People aged 60 years and over with chronic non-specific low back pain were recruited. Demographic and clinical data were collected before and after an 8-week group exercise program. The CSI, CPM test, pain intensity and disability were collected at baseline and post-intervention. The Global Perceived Effect scale was collected post-intervention. Responsiveness was determined by calculating effect sizes, standardized response mean (SRM) and the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC). We also conducted subgroup analyses to investigate the responsiveness of these measures in participants classified as: recovered versus not recovered, CPM-efficient versus CPM-inefficient and as having high versus low CSI scores. Results 118 participants completed the study. Pain and disability were the most responsive measures (effect sizes and SRM >0.7), followed by CSI (effect size and SRM >0.3). The CPM measures were not responsive. Pain and disability were also more responsive in identifying those participants who recovered after treatment (AUC >0.70) compared to CSI and CPM measures (AUC< 0.70). In addition, CSI showed a moderate to good correlation (0.52) with disability and little or no correlation (0.24) with pain. The CPM measures showed little or no correlation with pain and disability. Our subgroup analyses showed that CSI and CPM may be more responsive in patients with higher baseline CSI scores and those classified as CPM-inefficient, respectively. Conclusions Current measures of central sensitization are not as responsive as clinical outcomes of disability and pain. Central sensitization measures should not be used to monitor improvement with exercise intervention in older adults with non-specific low back pain. Future studies investigating the responsiveness of these measures in more precisely defined subgroups and using contemporary operational definitions are warranted.
Abstract Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate and sea level. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the AIS, the Southern Ocean and their global connections in the coming centuries. The AIS remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea‐level projections. Bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, and is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground‐ and ship‐based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography data sets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice‐sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next‐generation data set of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice‐sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea‐level rise projections and improving predictions of future ocean and climate changes.
Because geologic hazards affect large regions, overwhelming the capacity of dedicated emergency response resources, community resilience depends on individual and collective preparedness that is in place prior to an event. Two projects providing professional development on earthquake and tsunami science and preparedness, and utilizing an innovative “pedagogical exchange” model, demonstrated improvement in community resilience in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. The projects conducted immersive 4-day educator workshops that combined K-12 teachers with informal and emergency management educators to co-learn about hazards and collaborate on community action projects presented at a Share-a-Thon event 6-9 months after the workshop. The Cascadia EarthScope Earthquake and Tsunami Education Program and EarthScope Alaska Native Geoscience Learning Experience hosted a total of nine educator workshops in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. Project strategies focused on developing participants’ individual knowledge of hazards and preparedness and their ability to act collectively. Design elements include embedded hands-on learning activities during science content sessions, field experiences featuring regional hazards, team action-planning, and ongoing mentorship by leaders and emergency managers. Results show that both projects were effective at increasing participant content knowledge, self-efficacy for teaching about hazards and preparedness, and optimism for preparing at the community level. The professional development model presented here is demonstrated to be an effective way to improve emergency preparedness at individual, organization, and community scales. We recommend further testing of the pedagogical exchange model to assess its scalability and transferability to other regions and types of hazards.
