Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service

Understanding the impact of climate change on tourism is vital for the economies that rely on it. The tourism sector in Croatia, a country with diverse climatic regions, but also diverse features of tourism, is particularly sensitive to changes in climate variables such as 2 m air temperature and precipitation totals. This study analyzes trends in these two key climate variables from 1961 to 2024 across five representative climatic regions: the-mountainous Lika region (Ličko-senjska County), the Kvarner region on the northern Adriatic coast (Primorsko-goranska County), the Zadar region on the central Adriatic coast (Zadarska Counties), and northern continental Croatia (Varaždinska and Međimurje Counties). Linear trends, 5-year moving averages, and comparisons between two standard climate periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) were conducted. Using these data, the monthly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for seven-time scales were calculated for the period 1961–2024 to assess drought conditions and their implications for tourism across the selected destinations. Frequencies of dry, near normal and wet months, estimated by SPI for a nine-month time scale (SPI-9) and a monthly sc-PDSI, were compared for two subperiods, 1961–1992 and 1993–2024. Meteorological data were contextualized for tourism stakeholders, with a focus on adaptation measures. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with tourism professionals in the study regions, providing qualitative insights into observed changes in climate and tourist behavior, operational challenges, adaptation strategies, level of community engagement, and opportunities envisioned. Objective climatological data were compared with the subjective perceptions of tourism experts using the principle of mixed methods, which allows for triangulation. The climatological data indicated a continuous trend of increasing mean annual air temperatures, as well as anomalies of average precipitation amount. The interviews revealed signals of emerging climate shifts, such as changes in the seasonality of visitors, concerns about water scarcity and heat stress. These findings were interpreted in the context of potential threats and opportunities for the tourism sector, highlighting region-specific adaptation strategies. By combining objective climate data with insights from tourism professionals, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on tourism and informs for resilient tourism development across Croatia’s diverse regions. This paper presents a methodological framework for developing adaptation recommendations that draw on both empirical climate data and the lived experiences of tourism work practitioners.

This study analysed climate change in the eu-Mediterranean and sub-Mediterranean areas of the Istrian Peninsula, Croatia, and examined the influence of climatic conditions on crown defoliation in pubescent oak and Aleppo pine. Climate data from representative meteorological stations for the period 1980-2022 and crown defoliation data for 2000-2023 were analysed. Drought conditions were assessed using potential evapotranspiration, rainfall anomaly indices, and the number of dry months. The results indicated a significant increase in mean annual air temperature and potential evapotranspiration throughout the Istrian region, with temperatures rising by 0.8-1.2 degrees C compared to the reference period. Southern Istria experienced three dry months, characteristic of the steno-Mediterranean vegetation zone, indicating increasing aridity. The highest proportion of trees was recorded in the 26-60% defoliation class, including 54% of Aleppo pine and 59% of pubescent oak trees. Crown defoliation showed significant correlations with precipitation, rainfall anomaly index, and air temperature. Higher temperatures were associated with moderate defoliation levels, while lower minimum temperatures negatively affected severely defoliated Aleppo pine trees. No statistically significant differences in crown defoliation were found between pubescent oak and Aleppo pine.

To evaluate the impact of meteorological conditions on air quality in the vicinity of the Prudinec/Jaku & scaron;evec landfill in Zagreb, daily concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), and ammonia (NH3), monitored over a five-year period (2020-2024), were analysed. Under meteorological conditions in which the mixing layer height (MLH) falls below 1,000 m, an inversion layer forms above the city, suppressing vertical air mixing and leading to atmospheric stability and pollutant accumulation. The results showed that nearly 80 % of stable conditions occurred during the cold season (autumn and winter) of the study period. During these stable episodes, 88 % of all daily PM10 limit exceedances and 70 % of H2S exceedanceswere recorded. Comparable PM10concentrationswere measured atseveral monitoringstationsacrossZagreb, suggesting that the landfill is not a dominant source of PM10 pollution. The seasonal pattern of H2S concentrations at the landfill showed higher levels during winter, opposite to the pattern observed at the nearby Central Wastewater Treatment Plant of the City of Zagreb (CUPOVZ). This behaviour indicates the landfill is most likely a specific local source of H2S. NH3 concentrations were higher during the warm season both near the landfill and at CUPOVZ, suggestingdifferentdominantemission sources. The differingseasonal patterns of PM10, H2S, and NH3 indicate thatthese pollutants originate from distinct dominant emission sources. In the south-eastern part of Zagreb, agriculture and livestock farming are likely among the main contributors to NH3 emissions.

The behaviour of the quiet daily variations during different levels of solar activity over midlatitudes in Europe was the motivation for this study. The main aim was to determine the quiet daily variations from the Lonjsko Polje observatory (Croatia), for the first time. The hourly mean values of the three orthogonal components from 2013 to 2023 were used to examine and build an empirical model of the quiet daily variations for Lloyd’s seasons. An empirical model with 1071 coefficients per component was developed based on the assumptions that it depends on local time, lunar age, season, and solar activity, represented by solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The obtained model suggests that amplitude levels rise, and phase variations are affected by increasing solar activity. The derived seasonal variations were compared to the variations from the Fürstenfeldbruck, Panagjurishte and Tihany observatories during 2013−2021. Due to the absence of data from Lonjsko Polje during periods of higher solar activity, seasonal variations were examined using records from Fürstenfeldbruck and Panagjurishte over the period 1956−2021 and Tihany over 1997−2021. The modelled patterns of seasonal variations with different levels of solar activity showed good agreement with the observations. The seasonal variations from Fürstenfeldbruck and Panagjurishte averaged over each of six consecutive nonoverlapping 11-year intervals during 1956−2021 are highly correlated, while some scatter up to 7 nT is observed for each geomagnetic component, depending on local time. The seasonal variations at Lonjsko Polje for the period of 1956 to 2012 were reconstructed using a multilinear regression analysis of data from Fürstenfeldbruck and Panagjurishte, with the maximum amplitudes of 30, 90, and 40 nT for the north, east, and vertical components, respectively. The results from this study could lead to a possible investigation of the equivalent ionospheric and induced currents responsible for derived variations.