Federal Institute for Population Research

Decelerating gains in life expectancy (e0) in high-income countries have raised concerns about the future of human longevity. To enhance our understanding of these developments, we examine subnational (N = 450) mortality trends in Western Europe in the period 1992-2019. Between 1992 and 2005, gains in life expectancy were both substantial and widespread. Laggard regions experienced the fastest improvements, yielding rapid regional convergence. Between 2005 and 2019, however, gains in these regions decelerated, while remaining remarkably stable in vanguard regions, suggesting that it remains possible to continue extending longevity. The observed slowing of e0 gains is strongly associated with mortality at ages 55-74, which increased in this period across large areas of Western Europe, particularly in Germany and France. In this work, we show that monitoring mortality trends at a fine geographical level is crucial for revealing both the potential for, and challenges to, sustainable progress in human longevity. European regions with the highest life expectancy, located in central and northern Spain, northern Italy, and Switzerland, continue to push the boundaries of human longevity, suggesting that there is still room for further lifespan extension.

* A Rejoinder to this article is published here: Gietel-Basten, Stuart 2026: Gender Egalitarianism, Fertility, and an Attribution Error: a rejoinder on “The Gender Egalitarian Family Model: Empirical and Theoretical Problems”. In: Comparative Population Studies 51: 427-440. https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2026-18 In the demographic literature, gender egalitarianism has become the leading prescription for successful family (re)production in highly developed countries. Recent trends bring into question the case for the gender egalitarian family model, however. Its empirical claims are dependent on the transient experience of the Nordic countries in the 1990s and 2000s as well as on an amalgamation effect in the comparative national data. Its theoretical basis is challenged by social processes including rising female childlessness and young male reaction against gender egalitarianism. A reckoning with the limitations of this family model is important for both social scientists and policymakers seeking explanations for contemporary low fertility and family decline in the advanced Western democracies.

This paper examines whether refugee mothers in high income countries can benefit from universal childcare services. Using a large representative survey of Ukrainian refugees in Germany linked with administrative area-level information, we estimate the effects of childcare services on mothers’ participation in language and integration courses, employment, language skills, social contact with Germans, their feeling welcome and subjective wellbeing. To address potential biases from omitted variables and endogeneity, we complement ordinary least squares estimations with a formal assessment of unobserved factors and an instrumental variable approach, using local childcare coverage rates as instrument. Results indicate that mothers increase their participation in integration and language classes as well as labor market engagement when their child attends childcare services. Additionally, childcare attendance is associated with mothers’ improved German skills and more frequent contact with German residents, confirming that childcare centers can foster bridging ties. We find no effect on maternal wellbeing. While our selected outcomes cannot capture the full range of Ukrainian refugee mothers' experiences in Germany, they extend beyond traditional labor market indicators, underscoring the broader integrative function of childcare services.

The paper studies effects of social policies on in-work poverty risks, distinguishing between measures that either intervene in labour market processes -- i.e. predistribution policies -- or redistribute incomes towards those with low incomes. I argue that effects of different policies can be expected to vary across household contexts, due to the fact that the link between individual employment outcomes and in-work poverty is moderated by household type. The analyses uses data from EU-SILC and macro-level indicators from various sources to estimate general as well as household-type-specific effects using longitudinal methods. Results emphasize that labour market interventions and redistributive transfers impact in-work poverty risks through different mechanisms and also reveal important differences between specific policies: minimum wages contribute to reducing low-wage risks, whereas effects on in-work poverty are small and mainly restricted to single households where labour market outcomes and household income closely align. In contrast, there is a robust negative effect of strict employment protection legislation across almost all household types on in-work poverty, which is consistent with the positive role this measure plays for supporting higher earnings. With respect to redistributional policies, both unemployment benefits and benefits to low earners reduce poverty due to their contribution to public poverty-reduction. However, whereas unemployment benefits mainly reduce in-work poverty among couple households, benefits to low earners are the most effective measure to contribute to lower poverty risks among employed single parents.

ObjectivesGrounded in two theories, Evolutionary Theory of Loneliness/Feedback Model of Loneliness and Continuity Theory of Normal Ageing, primary objective of this study was to examine the longitudinal potentially bidirectional associations between loneliness and physical activity (PA) in later life. Three hypotheses were tested: (1) Loneliness and changes in PA are significantly associated over time when retirement status and partnership are controlled for; (2) Loneliness is correlated with PA, health, retirement, and personality factors; and (3) PA is correlated with loneliness, health, retirement, and personality factors.Design and methodsData were drawn from a population-representative German cohort (N = 5,002; aged 54–70 years at baseline) participating in a longitudinal study across three waves: 2013 (T1), 2016 (T2), and 2019 (T3).ResultsThe proportion of physically active individuals increased over time (T1: 53.8%, T2: 58.6%, T3: 66.4%). Bivariate analyses supported Hypothesis 1, indicating a significant association between loneliness and PA over time. However, multivariate models revealed that health status was the strongest correlates of both loneliness and PA. After adjusting for health, partnership, and personality traits, PA is no longer significantly correlated with loneliness over time, partially supporting Hypothesis 2. Similarly, loneliness was not correlated with PA when controlling for past PA and health, offering partial support for Hypothesis 3.ConclusionThese findings underscore the central role of health in understanding patterns in older adults. Prior engagement emerged as strongest correlate of continued activity, while personality traits particularly lower neuroticism and higher extraversion and conscientiousness were associated with reduced loneliness. Interventions should therefore prioritize the early promotion of physically active lifestyles integrated with loneliness preventing behaviors and cognitions.