Marian University (Indiana)

Understanding range-wide demographic, spatial, and temporal variation in annual survival is essential for managing species of conservation concern. Multi-population models are useful tools for integrating diverse datasets, reducing biases, and deriving survival estimates across differing spatial scales. We conducted a range-wide, multi-population apparent annual survival analysis for a declining songbird, Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler), using data from 18 sites across its breeding and nonbreeding grounds. This Nearctic-Neotropical migrant breeds in 2 disjunct regional populations, the Great Lakes and Appalachian Mountains, which are experiencing different rates of decline. We aimed to quantify regional-, site-, and sex-specific apparent annual survival estimates to identify geographic patterns or demographic factors influencing population declines. We used simulations to assess the precision of our estimates. Our models did not reveal a substantial difference in apparent annual survival between the Great Lakes (0.41, 95% credible interval (CrI):0.31-0.50) and the Appalachian regions (0.49, 95% CrI: 0.36-0.60), as CrIs overlapped. Site-specific estimates also showed no clear differences in apparent annual survival among sites representing both regional populations. Male apparent annual survival tended to be greater than female apparent annual survival in both regions, though CrI's overlapped. Our study suggests demographic factors other than adult annual survival likely play a larger role in recent regional and range-wide population declines, such as productivity, juvenile/immature survival, or recruitment. Simulations indicate that improving recapture probability and study duration of datasets could lead to more precise apparent annual survival estimates. However, our model produced CrI ranges comparable to the most ideal data collection scenario, suggesting the lack of trends we found was not due to variability in our estimates. We stress the importance of addressing inherent biases in survival datasets and the need for standardized collaborative efforts to inform species conservation on a range-wide scale. Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler) is a declining songbird breeding within 2 disjunct regional populations. The Appalachian Mountains population has undergone significantly higher population declines relative to the Great Lakes population; however, the drivers behind these declines are not well understood. We conducted a range-wide apparent annual survival analysis to obtain spatial and demographic survival estimates for adult V. chrysoptera and paired this analysis with a simulation exercise to gauge the precision of our estimates. Apparent annual survival rates of the Great Lakes and the Appalachian populations were statistically similar. While males tended to have greater apparent annual survival rates than females, overlapping credible intervals made it difficult to infer sex-specific differences. Our study suggests that factors such as productivity, juvenile/immature survival, or recruitment may play a more significant role in regional population declines over the past 2 decades than adult annual survival. An integrated population model would help to elucidate specific limiting factors. We emphasize the importance of standardizing data collection methods across studies for focal species to improve the precision of multi-population models and to better inform conservation efforts. Comprender la variaci & oacute;n demogr & aacute;fica, espacial y temporal de la supervivencia anual a lo largo de toda la distribuci & oacute;n es esencial para manejar especies de inter & eacute;s para la conservaci & oacute;n. Los modelos multi-poblacionales son herramientas & uacute;tiles para integrar diversos conjuntos de datos, reducir sesgos y obtener estimaciones de supervivencia a diferentes escalas espaciales. Realizamos un an & aacute;lisis multi-poblacional de la supervivencia anual aparente en toda la distribuci & oacute;n de una especie de ave canora en declive, Vermivora chrysoptera, utilizando datos de 18 sitios a lo largo de sus & aacute;reas reproductivas y no reproductivas. Este migrante ne & aacute;rtico-neotropical se reproduce en dos poblaciones regionales disyuntas, los Grandes Lagos y las Monta & ntilde;as Apalaches, que est & aacute;n experimentando diferentes tasas de declive. Nuestro objetivo fue cuantificar estimaciones de supervivencia anual aparente espec & iacute;ficas por regi & oacute;n, sitio y sexo para identificar patrones geogr & aacute;ficos o factores demogr & aacute;ficos que influyen en los declives poblacionales. Utilizamos simulaciones para evaluar la precisi & oacute;n de nuestras estimaciones. Nuestros modelos no revelaron una diferencia sustancial en la supervivencia anual aparente entre las regiones de los Grandes Lagos (0,41, intervalo cre & iacute;ble [ICr] del 95%: 0,31-0,50) y los Apalaches (0,49, ICr 95%: 0,36-0,60), ya que los intervalos cre & iacute;bles se superponen. Las estimaciones espec & iacute;ficas por sitio tampoco mostraron diferencias claras en la supervivencia anual aparente entre los sitios que representan ambas poblaciones regionales. La supervivencia anual aparente de los machos tendi & oacute; a ser mayor que la de las hembras en ambas regiones, aunque los intervalos cre & iacute;bles se superponen. Nuestro estudio sugiere que otros factores demogr & aacute;ficos distintos a la supervivencia anual de adultos probablemente desempe & ntilde;an un papel mayor en los recientes declives poblacionales regionales y a escala de distribuci & oacute;n, tales como la productividad, la supervivencia de juveniles/inmaduros o el reclutamiento. Las simulaciones indican que mejorar la probabilidad de recaptura y la duraci & oacute;n de los estudios de las bases de datos podr & iacute;a conducir a estimaciones m & aacute;s precisas de la supervivencia anual aparente. Sin embargo, nuestro modelo produjo rangos de intervalos cre & iacute;bles comparables al escenario m & aacute;s ideal de recolecci & oacute;n de datos, lo que sugiere que la ausencia de tendencias que encontramos no se debi & oacute; a la variabilidad en nuestras estimaciones. Destacamos la importancia de abordar los sesgos inherentes en las bases de datos de supervivencia y la necesidad de esfuerzos colaborativos estandarizados para contribuir a la conservaci & oacute;n de la especie a escala de toda su distribuci & oacute;n.

This study investigates the role of Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification in advancing sustainable forest management and influencing forest cover changes across 70 countries from 2000 to 2021. Using dynamic panel data model and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations, the analysis addresses endogeneity concerns, such as those stemming from lagged dependent variables, providing robust and unbiased estimates. Results indicate that FSC certification significantly enhances forest cover, with the most pronounced effects observed in low- and middle-income countries. Additionally, the study explores how FSC certification interacts with income levels and climatic conditions, revealing region-specific variations in its effects. These findings highlight the importance of market-based conservation tools, such as FSC certification, which align economic incentives with sustainability objectives. The analysis provides practical insights, recommending the integration of FSC certification into responsible trade practices and the development of regionally tailored forest management strategies to maximize conservation outcomes.

. Effective conservation of breeding habitat for migratory birds benefits from the development and use of science-based management guidelines. The Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea) is a rapidly declining migratory songbird whose decline is understood to be driven, in large part, by breeding grounds habitat loss. In 2013, science-informed habitat management guidelines were developed that described a series of silvicultural techniques to enhance Cerulean Warbler nesting habitat in the Appalachian Mountains. From 2016-2020, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and several partners implemented these guidelines across more than 3800 ha of privately owned forest. From 2017-2020, we surveyed for Cerulean Warblers and sampled vegetation at 139 locations on private forests enrolled in NRCS programs in Pennsylvania and Maryland. Cerulean Warbler occupancy probability was low (Psi = 0.16) and appeared to decline with increasing distance to the nearest Cerulean Warbler subpopulation (especially beyond 2 km). Even after guideline implementation, only 25% of posttreatment locations we monitored met guideline targets for average tree diameter. The lack of large-diameter trees is characteristic of prior unsustainable harvest practices (e.g., high grading) that commonly occurred on private lands in eastern deciduous forests. Although most opportunities to manage Cerulean Warbler habitat in Appalachia exist on private lands, Cerulean Warbler habitat guidelines were developed from studies conducted on public lands, where a history of sustainable management is more common; this disparity appears to drive drastic differences in how the species responds to conservation on private vs public lands. Future efforts to implement Cerulean Warbler habitat guidelines should prioritize sites that are proximate to existing Cerulean Warbler breeding populations and those where exploitative timber harvests have not recently occurred. Our work also provides a cautionary example of recognizing that habitat recommendations developed on public lands may not yield similar results on comparable private lands, especially if guidelines were not designed with private lands in mind.

Neotheropoda is the core clade of predatory dinosaurs that originated in the Triassic and became highly diversified and globally distributed by the Early Jurassic. Currently, six species of Neotheropoda have been described from Early Jurassic localities in Yunnan Province, south-western China. Here we describe a new specimen from the Lufeng Formation in central Yunnan, representing a non-coelophysoid, non-averostran neotheropod. Osteohistological analysis indicates the immaturity of the specimen. Computed tomography scans reveal the internal morphology of trunk vertebrae, implying a more developed postcranial skeletal pneumaticity in averostran-line neotheropods than previously thought. Phylogenetic analysis finds the new specimen as the closest sister-taxon to Averostra (Ceratosauria + Tetanurae). It does not form a unique subclade with the previously described Lufeng Formation taxa Shuangbaisaurus anlongbaoensis and Sinosaurus triassicus. Instead, Sh. anlongbaoensis and Si. triassicus are found as sister-taxa, indicating that the former may be a subjective junior synonym of the latter. Although the new specimen has a unique combination of character states, and a potential autapomorphy, we conservatively refrain from establishing a new taxon, due to its immature status and the lack of information on postcranial anatomy in other Yunnan theropods. Regardless, this specimen bridges a morphological gap between non-averostran and averostran theropods.

Eastern deciduous forests in North America have become increasingly homogenous in age-structure and composition, paralleling widespread forest bird declines. Given growing evidence of dynamic habitat use patterns by forest birds, researchers have increasingly called for a dynamic approach to forest management aimed at diversifying age structure. However, few studies have been conducted at large spatial scales with landscape-level replication to evaluate the conservation effects of managing forests with such an approach. We paired forest bird and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data from 224 unique 600-ha landscapes to understand the effects of dynamic forest restoration on avian communities. Specifically, we used multi-scale, multi-species abundance models to understand effects of forest structure on individual species and community-wide conservation value by weighting each species by its conservation need. Finally, we predicted species' abundance and community conservation value outcomes in response to a simulated dynamic forest restoration scenario. Across 73 species of forest birds, 24 species had a significant (at either 95 % or 80 % CBI) positive relationship with landscape-level canopy height heterogeneity. As such, avian conservation value in our simulated dynamic forest landscape was 7.9 % higher than in an unmanaged landscape. Site-level effects translated into 39.5 % higher avian conservation value in recent (0-6 year old) overstory removals, and conservation value remained high in both 7-20 year old overstory removals and shelterwoods. The simulated dynamic forest landscape benefitted species with seemingly opposing habitat needs (e.g., Golden-winged Warblers [Vermivora chrysoptera] and Wood Thrushes [Hylocichla mustelina]). Our results underscore the value of dynamic forest restoration as a tool for promoting communitywide conservation of birds in Appalachian forests.