Mogadishu University

As a transcontinental global cooperation program, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims for policy coordination, unimpeded connectivity, trade facilitation, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds. Following the International Cooperation theory of political economy, this study assesses the impact of BRI membership on global value chain (GVC) participation for African member countries. The study employed panel Random Effects (RE), Hausman Taylor (HT), and Instrumental Variables (IV) methods to empirically estimate the quantitative effects of BRI membership on forward, backward, and total GVC participation for 43 African countries from 2000 to 2022. The findings demonstrate that BRI membership boosted overall and forward GVC participation, despite the absence of empirical evidence for backward GVC promotion. Moreover, the heterogeneity analysis revealed considerable differences in BRI-GVC effects across countries, with geographic and trade-association factors. Nevertheless, the results were consistently robust across the RE, HT, and IV estimation models employed. Hence, the findings imply that African policymakers should increase GVC value additions, reform trade associations, enhance BRI trade facilitation, strengthen political stability, and address the impacts of COVID-19.

Climate adaptation has become an important policy priority in fragile and conflict-affected states, yet the implementation of adaptation policies often remains weak. This study examines the governance and institutional factors that contribute to adaptation policy implementation gaps in Somalia. Using Somalia as an in-depth qualitative case, the study draws on secondary data from national policy documents, reports by international organizations, and peer-reviewed literature published between 2012 and 2024. Guided by an environmental governance perspective, the analysis focuses on how institutional arrangements, coordination systems, financing patterns, and state-society relations shape the implementation of adaptation policy in practice. The findings show that Somalia has made progress in developing adaptation-related policy frameworks across key vulnerability sectors, including water, agriculture, disaster risk reduction, and climate-sensitive livelihoods. However, implementation remains constrained by fragmented institutional mandates, weak coordination across sectors and levels of government, limited technical and monitoring capacity, dependence on donor-funded project cycles, and insufficient involvement of local authorities and communities. These factors create a persistent gap between formal policy commitment and operational delivery. The study argues that adaptation policy implementation in fragile states is shaped not only by policy design, but by the broader conditions of state-building, governance consolidation, and donor-state relations. By showing how adaptation governance unfolds within evolving and contested institutional settings, the paper offers a more context-sensitive understanding of why implementation gaps persist in fragile states such as Somalia.

The rapid advancement of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has accelerated its adoption in workplaces worldwide. While prior research highlights its productivity enhancing potential, growing concerns remain regarding its impact on employee well-being, particularly job disruption and anxiety. This study examines the mechanisms through which GenAI influences both work productivity and employees’ intention to use such technologies, addressing a critical gap in individual level adoption. Drawing on Technological Determinism Theory, Disruptive Innovation Theory, Innovation Resistance Theory and Digital Divide Theory, a multi-dimensional research model was developed. Using a quantitative cross-sectional survey, data were collected between December 2025 and February 2026 from 368 employees working in AI-enabled organizations in Somalia and analyzed using a hybrid Structural Equation Modeling–Artificial Neural Network (SEM–ANN) approach. The findings reveal that perceived GenAI intensity significantly enhances work productivity and directly increases employees’ intention to use GenAI. Work productivity also partially mediates this relationship. Conversely, perceived job disruption significantly increases employee anxiety, highlighting the psychological challenges associated with GenAI adoption. Furthermore, training support positively influences intention to use GenAI but negatively moderates the relationship between GenAI intensity and productivity. These results demonstrate the dual nature of GenAI as both a driver of productivity and a source of psychological strain. The study offers practical implications for organizations to balance performance gains with employee support mechanisms. Limitations include reliance on self-reported data and a single country context, suggesting opportunities for future research.

Recurrent climate and conflict shocks in Somalia perpetuate humanitarian crises and reactive responses, undermining long-term stability. Despite growing investments in early warning systems, the transition from prediction to proactive action remains weak. This study examines whether predictive preparedness breaks the cycle of recurrent shocks and whether adaptive governance mediates this relationship. A mixed-methods design was employed, combining quantitative data on shock events and response indicators in Somalia (2015–2025) with qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with 34 policymakers from national ministries, regional authorities, and humanitarian agencies. Mediation analysis was conducted using structural equation modeling. Predictive preparedness significantly reduced the recurrence intensity of shocks (β = 0.61, p < 0.01). Adaptive governance explained 42% of this effect, with key mediators including flexible financing mechanisms, cross-sectoral coordination, and institutional learning loops. Qualitative findings highlighted that adaptive governance enabled timely release of anticipatory funds and improved trust among fragmented governance bodies. The study concludes that predictive preparedness breaks the cycle of recurrent shocks in Somalia primarily through adaptive governance rather than merely through better forecasts. Strengthening adaptive governance—especially institutional flexibility, cross-sectoral coordination, and institutional learning—is essential for shifting from crisis response to systematic resilience-building. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers, humanitarian actors, and development partners working in fragile and conflict-affected contexts.