Concerns about the negative impact of population decline, and especially the systemic depopulation of remote and marginalised areas, have become a central issue in contemporary policy debates. The National Strategy for Inner Areas (SNAI), established in 2014, represents the main Italian policy framework explicitly aimed at supporting territories affected by long-term demographic fragility. This study applies the Systemic Depopulation Areas Index (SyDAs) to municipalities in three Italian regions—Abruzzo, Basilicata, and Emilia-Romagna—over the period 1994–2023 to identify and characterise systemic depopulation processes. Municipal trajectories are examined both in terms of exit from systemic depopulation (SyDAs Exit) and reduction in its intensity (SyDAs Reduction), measured through differences in population trend slopes before and after the introduction of SNAI. These outcomes are then examined in relation to the degree of economic implementation of SNAI projects at the municipal level. The results indicate a general expansion or stabilization of systemic depopulation across the analysed regions, while only a small minority of municipalities display either an exit from the SyDAs condition or a measurable reduction in its intensity. Moreover, no statistically significant association emerges between higher levels of SNAI economic implementation and either SyDAs Exit or SyDAs Reduction. Taken together, these findings suggest that observed demographic trajectories do not display systematic differentiation across levels of policy exposure. This evidence highlights the analytical importance of moving beyond financial implementation alone and points to the need for refined territorial targeting, outcome-oriented monitoring, and sustained, context-sensitive support for local governance in place-based development strategies.
In the last decade, the substantial expansion of online education in Italy has been accompanied by a growing public and institutional debate over its academic quality and effectiveness. This study contributes to this debate by investigating the differences in academic outcomes between students enrolled in online institutions and those in traditional universities, with a particular focus on first-year dropout. Using administrative data from the MOBYSU.IT database on the population of students enrolled in an Italian university between 2010 and 2019, we apply Propensity Score Matching to estimate the causal impact of attending an online institution. Our analysis shows that students in online universities are, on average, less likely to drop out after the first year. This retention effect is especially evident among students who enrol later in life, those from technical and vocational schools, and those from Southern Italy. Conversely, students entering university directly after high school are more likely to transfer to traditional institutions. These findings suggest that online universities can play a complementary role in reducing dropout and promoting access to higher education, particularly for non-traditional and underserved student populations.
The conventional approach to modeling age at death through parametric models often employs a three-component mixture as a standard. However, recognizing the need to more accurately reflect the diverse trends in old age mortality, this study introduces a five-component Bayesian mortality model. This model is designed to address data exhibiting cohort effects and transitions in the old age mortality component, which moves from a skew-normal distribution to a mix of Gaussian and skew-normal distributions as the period progresses. The proposed model comprises a point probability for infant mortality, a uniform distribution for background mortality, a Gaussian distribution for premature mortality, and two components for old age mortality (Gaussian and skew-normal). Applied to data from 10 Italian regions spanning 1974–2022, including cohort effects for cohorts born between 1913 and 1947, the model demonstrates a stable interpretation of mortality components over time. In contrast to simpler models, it reveals a significant shift in old age mortality from a skew-normal to a combined Gaussian and skew-normal distribution around the millennium’s turn. This study not only sheds light on the evolution of old age mortality in Italy, highlighting a non-uniform shift and compression of mortality across the population, but also lays the groundwork for future forecasting models by maintaining a consistent parameter interpretation throughout the period.
Abstract In Sweden, as in most Western countries, language proficiency is widely recognized as a key component of immigrant integration, supported by initiatives such as the publicly funded language program known as Swedish for Immigrants (SFI). Yet, little is known about when immigrants enroll in SFI and how patterns of participation in SFI unfold over time. Using longitudinal register data and focusing on immigrants arriving in Sweden between 2000 and 2016 with a ten-year follow-up, this study examines both the timing of initial enrollment, using Kaplan–Meier survival estimates, and subsequent participation in SFI until exit analyzed with a discrete-time event-history model. Results reveal a clear temporal pattern in enrollment, with most immigrants starting SFI relatively early after arrival and enrollment declining sharply after the first three years, highlighting this period as the most common for initial enrollment. Subsequent participation in SFI shows substantial selectivity over time, with immigrants who have higher education and income, the youngest participants, and those receiving parental benefits exhibiting a higher hazard of exiting SFI, indicating shorter participation. In contrast, women, unemployed individuals, those at risk of poverty, parents of younger children, and immigrants with a foreign-born spouse have a lower exit hazard and remain in SFI for longer period. Language background is strongly associated with subsequent participation in SFI and immigrants from all other language groups exhibit significantly lower exit hazards compared with migrants from Germanic-language countries. Differences by migration category are evident but modest. Overall, the findings show that different groups engage with SFI courses differently over time, with demographic, socioeconomic characteristics, household composition, and migration-related factors influencing patterns of subsequent participation, potentially reflecting a combination of motivations, inequalities, and challenges in accessing SFI and integration opportunities.
This article explores how socio-economic inequalities shape the ways in which homomaternal families manage stigma within the French school system. Drawing on in-depth qualitative interviews with mothers in twenty-four same-sex couples, it highlights the diversity of parental strategies, which have often been overlooked in research that portrays these families as a relatively uniform group. The study reveals that, while homomaternal families face specific forms of stigmatization, their strategies to protect their children vary substantially by socio-economic background. During the school selection process, the mother’s accumulation of capital and access to local school options gives them greater or lesser leeway in choosing a school which is perceived as safe and suitable for their children. Once enrolled, professional ideologies and class-based relationships with the institution contribute to shape how mothers act within the school to protect their child. The most advantaged mothers in our sample, particularly those in the private sector, are more likely to monitor the school’s inclusivity practices and intervene directly, positioning themselves as experts in their children’s education. In contrast, less privileged mothers refrain from intervening, aiming to avoid excessive visibility and to preserve their family’s image. By bringing together insights from the sociology of education and LGB family studies, this research offers new insights into the intersection of class, sexuality, and parental involvement in schooling, while also emphasizing the need to consider the experiences of less privileged same-sex parents, often underrepresented in research and more vulnerable to institutional heterosexism.
Abstract Despite the growing share of migrants in the European workforce, research on how employment uncertainty shapes their fertility intentions remains limited. This study examines how employment uncertainty—measured objectively (contract type) and subjectively (perceived employment uncertainty)—influences short-term fertility intentions in Sweden and Norway. A key contribution is the comparison between native-born individuals and migrants distinguished by Western and non-Western origins. Using data from the Generations and Gender Survey II (2020–2021), the differential effects for men and women are analysed. The results indicate that while permanent employment generally promotes fertility intentions for the native-born population, the mechanisms differ significantly for non-Western migrants. For native-born men, both contractual and perceived uncertainty are negatively associated with fertility intentions. In contrast, non-Western migrants—particularly men—are more likely to report positive fertility intentions under conditions of uncertainty, such as holding non-permanent contracts or anticipating job loss. This suggests that for marginalised groups, childbearing may be decoupled from employment security and conditions or serve as a strategy to reduce uncertainty.
Abstract This article uses longitudinal Swedish administrative data to provide the first population-level evidence on the prevalence and characteristics of transgender parents. In 2020, 10% of trans men (assigned female at birth) and 13% of trans women (assigned male at birth) were parents. Parenthood rates varied considerably by age, peaking at 41% for trans men aged 45–49 and 43% for trans women aged 50–64—about half the rates observed among cisgender peers. Paths to parenthood differed by gender: most trans women with children became parents before starting medical gender transition, whereas a majority of trans men with children initiated transition before having children. Compared to cisgender parents, transgender people entered family formation with weaker labor market attachment, and these gaps widened over time. However, transgender people with children were economically better off than transgender non-parents, suggesting a positive selection into parenthood. Taken together, our findings show that although a meaningful minority of transgender people form families, they remain a small and economically vulnerable group whose opportunities for parenthood are constrained by medical, legal, and social conditions.
The custom of transmitting only the paternal surname to children remains widespread in most patrilineal societies. Given how societal emphasis on gender equality has increased in other societal domains in recent decades (e.g. employment, wages, domestic chores), the question of why parents refrain from adopting more egalitarian surname practices (such as double surnames) presents a compelling sociological puzzle. This article aims to address this issue by investigating to what extent social norms shape the propensity to give children both parents’ surnames (i.e., a double surname) in Italy, where, since a 2022 ruling by the Constitutional Court, children are allowed to take a double surname unless the parents agree otherwise. Using two survey experiments, with Italian online quota samples, respondents were randomly assigned to one of four hypothetical scenarios designed to manipulate their empirical and normative expectations. Results from the first experiment indicate that empirical expectations have a stronger influence than normative ones. The second experiment confirms this but shows that the effect depends on the reference network considered. These findings highlight the importance of changing empirical expectations to encourage the adoption of the double surname, ultimately promoting greater gender equality in family naming practices.
While refugee inflows into Germany have typically been relatively moderate in recent decades, specific exogenous political events such as the Yugoslav civil war in the early 1990s, the intensifying of the Syrian civil war around 2015, and the war in Ukraine since 2022, have generated substantial spikes in refugee arrivals, affecting the receiving society in multiple ways. This study examines the possible association between the large inflows of refugees into German society during the Syrian civil war period and the development of residents’ life satisfaction in Germany. While several studies have addressed the integration of this exceptionally large number of refugees into the German labor market and society, less attention has been paid to the potential impact of recent refugee arrivals on the subjective well-being (SWB) of the resident population, including native Germans and first- and second-generation immigrants. Whereas the literature reports neutral or positive associations between labor migration and residents’ or natives’ life satisfaction, less is known about the association between refugee inflows and residents’ life satisfaction. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) enriched with official regional information and data from immigration statistics regarding refugee inflows into Germany, we analyze the association between refugee inflows and residents’ life satisfaction while controlling for established variables associated with life satisfaction. In contrast to political debates, our results demonstrate a significant positive association between residents’ life satisfaction and periods of increased refugee inflows since 2012. Even during the peak years of refugee inflows in 2015 and 2016, we observe increases in residents’ life satisfaction both overall and across specific subgroups. However, as the observed increases are neither linear nor continuous, and vary across time within residential subgroups, we favor an explorative framework and do not claim to identify causal effects.
We analysed mortality levels and trends at the municipal level in Italy between 2002 and 2018, covering approximately 8000 local administrative units. Detailed mortality data at this level are unavailable, and apparently only crude death rates can be calculated (deaths divided by the average, i.e. mid-year, population). To overcome this limitation, we calculated standardised mortality ratios (SMR), comparing observed deaths to expected deaths derived by applying national age-specific mortality rates to local population age structures. We validated this approach, examined its properties, and used it to investigate local mortality patterns across Italy. Our findings highlight limited territorial heterogeneity in SMR, although with a slight increase over time: the coefficient of variation rose from 12.5
A substantial body of research has examined the impact of the June 2016 Brexit referendum from a UK-centred perspective. Much of this literature has focused on economic and social outcomes, with particular attention to migration. In this paper, we evaluate the causal impact of the uncertainty generated by the referendum on migration from the standpoint of a major country of origin—Italy, one of the principal sources of intra-EU flows to the UK. Specifically, we investigate whether the referendum redirected emigration flows from Italy towards alternative destinations (the migration diversion hypothesis). Drawing on detailed Italian administrative migration data, we also explore whether uncertainty induced by the referendum differentially affected distinct groups of migrants: Italians by birth, who acquired citizenship, and other EU citizens residing in Italy. Finally, we assess whether the effect of Brexit varies by educational attainment among Italian-born emigrants—high, medium, and low skilled. To address these questions, we implement a difference-in-differences strategy in which EU citizens emigrating from Italy serve as the treatment group, while non-EU citizens emigrating from Italy provide the control group. The findings offer clear evidence of migration diversion, particularly among low-skilled Italians by birth.
Many high-income societies have seen two parallel trends in recent decades: falling fertility rates and an increasing prevalence of mental health issues among young adults. Yet, the association between mental health and fertility remains underexplored, especially with respect to fertility preferences and their realisation. This study examines how depression, one of the most common mental disorders, relates to two fertility outcomes: (1) reporting a positive short-term fertility intention, and (2) realising such an intention. The study uses data from the Norwegian and Swedish Generations and Gender Surveys from 2007/2008 to 2012/2013, together with their register-based follow-ups. To measure depression, we use the 7-item, shortened version of the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D Scale). Results show that depression is negatively associated with the propensity to report a positive fertility intention among Norwegian women and the propensity to realise a positive fertility intention within three years among Swedish women. Among men, depression is not significantly associated with either of the two outcomes. This study contributes new evidence on how depression may influence fertility, advancing the understanding of the determinants of fertility behaviour as well as the consequences of a widespread mental disorder.
Previous research on migrant fertility has focused mainly on the total fertility rate (TFR) at the macro level or on specific birth transitions of migrant women or their descendants at the individual level. Few studies at the micro level examine completed fertility among migrants across European countries, and few compare fertility patterns of migrant men with those of migrant women. Building on theoretical considerations on migrant fertility, i.e., adaptation, disruption, selection hypotheses, and the comparative integration context theory, this study investigates first-generation migrants’ number of children ever born across European countries of destination and the underlying gender differences. We analyze data from the Generations and Gender Survey Round II (2020–2022) of two German-speaking countries (Germany and Austria) and three Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway, and Sweden). The first dependent variable is the number of children, for which Poisson regression models are estimated. The second dependent variable is childlessness, for which linear probability models are estimated. All models are estimated separately for migrants and natives. The results support the hypotheses on the influence of the comparative integration context and on adaptation processes, but reveal major gender differences: completed fertility patterns among migrant women resemble those of natives, but this is not the case for migrant men. Migrant women in the Nordic countries have more children than their counterparts in Germany, while the results for migrant men remain inconclusive. Rates of childlessness among migrant men in the Nordic countries surpass those of both native men and migrant women, indicating that migration disrupts family formation more for men than women. This disruption seems to occur as early as the union formation stage, i.e., migrant men in the Nordic countries are at greatest risk of remaining single among the groups observed.
Unprecedented gains in life expectancy call for a nuanced understanding of morbidity and its consequences on social care needs. Despite the observed worldwide gender gap in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, we still do not know how these longer years women are living are affected by social care needs, nor whether there are cross-country differences in this regard. This study measures the Years of Life Expectancy with Care Needs that individuals are expected to live at age 60, combining (multi)morbidity and social care needs states. By decomposing the gender gap in life expectancy without care needs across five Ibero-American countries (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Portugal, and Spain), it also explains the differences between men and women in this regard. Results reinforce the health-survival paradox, with women living longer lives and more years in states of multimorbidity and social care needs than men. They also show that in all countries but Spain, the gender gap in years without care needs implies that men are living, on average, longer years than women without healthcare and social care needs. By using an indicator that combines measures of healthcare and social care needs, this study aims to contribute to the evidence required to prepare healthcare systems and social care policies according to ageing populations’ specific dynamics and needs.
Abstract Job loss is an involuntary, disruptive life event with adverse effects on a person’s health, finances, and family outcomes. Previous research on the link between job loss and union dissolution has revealed gender-specific patterns. Existing gender norms may also moderate the relationship between job loss and separation risk. The life course theory suggests that men socialised in a stronger male-breadwinner norms regime would have a higher risk of union dissolution following job loss than men socialised in a weaker male-breadwinner norms regime. Also, men with egalitarian gender roles who contribute time equally to family needs alongside their partners have higher relationship satisfaction. We study the impact of involuntary job loss due to plant closures and dismissals on marital dissolution (divorce or separation) using the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (1984–2019) by employing event study analyses. We further analyse how regional gender norms (proxied by men residing in East vs. West Germany in 1989) and individual-level gender role attitudes for men, as reflected in their share of home production activities in the couple over the years, moderate this relationship. We find that the risk of union dissolution increases by 1.8 ppts (a 180% increase in relative terms) in the year of job loss for the treatment group compared to the control group, likely driven by couples in unstable relationships, for whom the stress caused by job loss is the decisive factor leading to a dissolution. This effect is mediated by males’ share in home production activities over the years and household income in the year of job loss, which is consistent with the economic hardship mechanism. There are no moderation effects by regional gender norms or gender role attitudes for the increased risk of union dissolution following job loss. The absence of significant moderation by regional gender norms—contrary to predictions from life course theory and gender identity theory—may reflect that the stigma of divorce is greater in West Germany, with stronger male-breadwinner norms, and the convergence of gender norms across East and West Germany in the decades since reunification.
The study proposes a novel perspective in analyzing the nexus between labor market uncertainty and childbearing behavior, namely the full consideration of the meso-level, or social location. We claim that a comprehensive understanding of the role of employment uncertainty must include, together with the more traditional micro- and macro-levels, the social location’s exposure to uncertainty. We use the 2004–2023 rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS) to investigate the association between the employment uncertainty experienced by the respondents through their social location (i.e., unemployment in their ascribed reference group) and national context (i.e., country annual unemployment rate), net of and in interaction with the labor market uncertainty experienced by them at the individual level. We run separate analyses for men and women, and we investigate whether and how this process depends on the respondents’ socioeconomic status. Our findings show that, per se, the employment uncertainty experienced in one’s social location and country context is not substantially associated with the probability of having a child; on the other hand, as unemployment rates increase in the social location or country, the likelihood of having a child declines among individuals who never experienced labor market uncertainty, making them more similar to those who did experience personally some degree of uncertainty.
Previous studies indicate that women experience larger material losses following divorce than men. This disparity may be attributed to various factors, including women’s caregiving roles during the marriage and the wage gap between genders. Women may also face elevated levels of housing insecurity if divorce prevents them from retaining owner-occupied housing following marital disruption. Because most studies focus on different-sex couples, little evidence is available on whether women married to women experience a smaller loss in homeownership than women married to men following divorce. Using record-linkage data of marital dyads from different-sex and female same-sex couples in Finland, we assessed changes in both spouses’ homeownership and marital home residence for three years before and after the year of divorce (2002–2021). Our study indicates that losses in homeownership, as well as the loss of a marital home, are greater for women divorcing men compared to both their husbands and women divorcing women. On the other hand, women in same-sex couples are less likely to own their marital homes before the divorce, suggesting that they have fewer material resources to lose in a divorce than women in different-sex couples. The findings indicate that no divorced group fully recovers from their losses within three years of the divorce. However, spouses who earned more than their marital dyads experienced smaller losses, suggesting that nontraditional gender roles may protect women from adverse housing consequences following divorce.
This study uses longitudinal data from two waves of the Norwegian Generations and Gender Survey (2020 and 2024) to test whether subjective economic uncertainty predicts fertility intentions and the transition to parenthood, controlling for objective economic uncertainty. The Norwegian welfare state provides an extensive economic safety net and institutional buffer, which could dampen the behavioral impact of perceived financial strain. Nevertheless, among 609 childless adults aged 25–34, reporting difficulties making ends meet was associated with a lower probability of realizing intended first births, even after controlling for employment status and income. Other subjective measures—expectations about personal finances in three years and worries about the macroeconomy—showed no significant effects. Overall, fertility intentions were less influenced by subjective economic uncertainty than was the subsequent realization of those intentions. This suggests that intentions translate into behavior only when external constraints, including individuals’ perceptions of their economic situation, permit it. These results highlight the importance of incorporating individuals’ subjective assessments of their current and future economic situation into fertility research.
This contribution analyses the relationship between family-friendly workplace benefits and fertility intentions among women and men in Italy. Using data from the 2016 Italian Survey on Family and Social Subjects, we extend existing research by focusing on Italy, a context characterised by one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe and little public investment in work-family reconciliation policies, where the role of workplace-based family-friendly provisions may be more salient for fertility decisions, and by distinguishing between two types of workplace benefits: time-flexible working arrangements and workplace-based childcare services (or childcare-related monetary contribution from the employer). Our regression analysis indicates that access to flexible working arrangements is positively associated with women's and men's fertility intentions. Instead, we find no significant association between the provision of workplace-based childcare services and fertility intentions.
This study adopts a dyadic perspective to explore how parental partnership quality relates to the wellbeing of children living with both biological parents versus those with a biological parent and a stepparent. We apply multivariable linear regression and a mediation analysis on dyadic data from the German Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics (pairfam) to understand the relationship between family structure, step- and biological parents’ partnership quality, and children’s self-reported wellbeing, operationalised over the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ-scores). We differentiate two separate dimensions of parental partnership quality, namely the frequency of conflict and esteem between the (step-) parents. The results show that children living with a stepparent exhibit higher total difficulties scores as compared to children living with both their biological parents. However, parental conflict occurs less and esteem more frequently in stepfamilies than in nuclear families. Mediation analysis indicates that frequency of esteem between parents partially mediates the impact of family structure on SDQ-scores. Our analysis suggests that the negative effect of living with stepparents on children’s social and behavioural problems is slightly mitigated by increased parental esteem in these unions.
