This paper examines the relationhip between population and environment, especially problems in the definition of the environment and its characteristics and how effectively to isolate man's environment from man himself. The discussion on the conceptual and operational environment, which varies with societal feelings, expectations, reactions and activities, is carried out in the framework of environmental pollution, population growth in general, economic development, and consumption demands. These phenomena precipitate and exacerbate degradation in environmental quality. This deterioration has reached grave proportions in some regions of the world. The example of the interaction of automobiles and air pollution in Los Angeles is detailed. A model is suggested to measure environmental status using an inconvenience threshold, hazard and extinction threshold. Nigeria is charted using this model for range of environmental quality. To improve environmental quality the author recommends involvement of positive attitudes and measures aimed at rational population control. Another realistic option for developing countries is institutionalization of preventive and corrective legislation and educational activities.
This paper describes the problems arising from the multiround survey designed to study fertility and mortality undertaken in Morocco between July, 1972 and June, 1973. 84,000 people were in the sample; 36,000 from urban centers. Each sampling unit was broken up into 1500 persons which represents 300 households. It was found that the standard error increases when the size of the sampling unit diminishes. This was true both for the number of births and the number of deaths. By taking into account the cost, the weekly working time of an enumerator, the supervision and the distance within a sampling unit the author concludes that small sampling units of about 1,000 persons are more suitable for this method. Part time "resident" enumerators and full time "external" enumerators were employed in the survey. Comparison between the 2 categories shows that in order to get good registration of demographic events, the external enumerators are better off for registering the births in the urban areas and the deaths in rural areas. Resident enumerators did better at births registration in rural areas and deaths in urban areas. To insure that all households in a sampling unit are under control, each household, inhabited or uninhabited, should be numbered, and the interval between visits of the enumerator should not exceed 3 months. Strict control and permanent supervision of the enumerators is necessary to make certain that all households are visited and their members listed. In enumerating events at health centers, only those belonging to the housholds of the sampling units were recorded. Suggestions for better control include choosing supervisors from among the best enumerators with field experience and daily visits to enumerators to check questionnaires. Migration is not suitable for study using the multiple round survey because the sampling units need to be larger. Difficulties occur when comparison is made between results of different visits. For Morocco the comparison between the survey and the registration show that 71% of births were recorded during the registration against 74% during the survey, in both rural and urban areas. The recorded percentage of deaths was 62% for the registration, 57% for the survey.
The state of demographic data in Africa is reviewed in this paper along with constraints affecting the collection of adequate demographic information. An evaluation is made of the present situation and efforts to rectify the shortage of demographic personnel in the UN sponsored subregional demographic institutes, including an outline of the course program. The effort and progress being made in similar training programs at the University of Ife, Nigeria, is also examined. Obstacles to the collection of demographic data are classified as physical difficulties; administrative and official problems and difficulties; technical and staff problems; and sociocultural problems. A consensus has been reached on the inadequacy of past efforts in data collection and analysis in Africa. Special attention must be paid to the training of demographers. A comparison is made between demographers in developed countries who have their data collected for them and the African demographer who must be his own statistician, sociologist, anthropologist, and geographer to understand the biases his data are subject to. Training for African demographers should emphasize problems in data collection, data manipulation, and innovation in solving methodological problems. Type of personnel needed include teachers of demography, high level professionals, middle level professionals and low level workers. The training programs given by the Regional Institutes for Population Studies are a postgraduate diploma course, lasting 1 year and a Master's degree course for those who obtain the diploma. Subjects covered include substantive demography; technical demography; family planning, its development and evaluation; auxiliary subjects including mathematics, statistics, sampling and research methods; and complementary subjects e.g., economics, sociology, national planning, physiology of reproduction, and genetics. Short term research projects and a major research report are an integral part of the programs. The paper underlines the need for assistance to such University based programs in expanding their activities with a view to meeting the needs of African governments, private and public agencies, as well as citizens for basic demographic information.
The authors review various techniques which have been used to correct age errors in census data. The classical measures such as Bacchi's, Myer's and Whipple's indices developed for use in countries with high quality census data are considered for a number of reasons to be unsuitable to African conditions. The paper concentrates on 3 additional indices: the UN Secretariat index; Newton's formula; Carrier and Farrag ratio technique. The relative merit of each method is examined in light of African census data. In discussing the results, the authors demonstrate that substantial reduction of errors arising from digital preference in African census data is possible through the use of the 3 quantitative techniques. Results show that both the Carrier Farrag ratio method and the UN formula are superior to the quadratic method. However, since the ratio method is more difficult to use without the aid of a computer, the UN method is considered prefereble for everyday use. Tables present data from African countries collected during the 1960's on age and sex distributions and ratios, including Nigeria, Ghana, Upper Volta, Niger, Senegal, Dahomey, and Togo, and Algeria.
This paper analyses the relationship of the lawyer and legal education to policies of population dynamics in Africa. Lawyers have been reluctant to enter effectively into population studies and consequently are peripheral in influencing the formulation and implementation of population policies in Africa. This "unfortunate" situation reflects the varying attitudes of the lawyer to some aspects of population dynamics. The concept of Human Rights is examined as offering a suitable avenue for increased participation of lawyers into the formulation of population policies. The paper examines the structure of laws affecting parameters of population dynamics in Kenya and the extent to which Kenya's legal structure, as in some other African countries, is pegged to the legal system of their colonial governments. This factor, reinforced by traditional practices and socioeconomic factors, frustrate lawyers' attitudes. These attitudes can be changed by making population law an integral part of legal educational curricula. Breakdowns are given of lawyer's attitudes to fertility and abortion under specified conditions and descriptions of various case studies in Kenya, Sweden, Prague, Czechoslovakia, and England involving abortion laws. Contraception laws in Africa and health codes are detailed in order to trace how people's attitudes tend to frustrate the law, especially concerning veneral diseases. Laws concerning drugs, and especially spatial distribution (urban and rural migration) are described to show how lawyers can become involved in population law. The author's recommended law curriculum is given which emphasizes introductory preparation in the sociological, economic, demographic, health and sex education dimensions of the subject of population law in addition to study of all statutory provisions, orders, regulations, by laws and judicial decisions that have any bearing on population matters. Categories to be studied should include fertility regulation, family law, children and child welfare, criminal offence and penology, public welfare, public health, education, property and economic factors.
This paper sets out in detail the 2 basic objectives of the 1973 National Demographic Survey of Tanzania. Modelled on the successful experience of Sudan, the survey was designed to examine the influence that the community in which a respondent is living has on the respondent's demographic characteristics or reproductive behavior. It was also designed to throw light on the impact of the rapid economic and social change to which the African population is being subjected on the future fertility and mortality trends. The paper gives a concise description of the sample frame and sample size, the content of the questionnaire, tabulation program and the demographic significance of variables selected. The description of the survey includes the various stages in the organization of the project, time table, recruitment of staff and a number of related surveys which were planned at the same time. Maps of the regional clusters are included. Appendices tabulate the results of the survey, and are divided into the following sections: basic age, sex and socioeconomic categories; marital status; fertility and child survival; fertility by parity; fertility and type of marriage; age at 1st marriage; fertility trends; other mortality tabulations.
Most governments today accept in principle that provision of education is a basic human right as embodied in article 26 of the Declaration of Human Rights. Through education, peace, good international relations, better prospects for economic developments, and improvement of human resources are possible. Despite this awareness, most governments cannot fulfill this requirement of education due to large population sizes, rapid growth and competition for scarce natural resources. An historical survey of the development of educational policies in Nigeria reveals that the Machiavellian policy of the colonial period largely created the present imbalance in the educational development of the Moslem north (where slow development was encouraged) compared to the Christian south. The 1st government participation in education by 1877 was minimal. The colonial government relied heavily on missionary educational activities. Political motives and religious conflicts between the northern and southern regions retarded missionary activities. Not until 1926 did active cooperation begin between the government and local states, reinforced by Elliot's Commission Report, the Phillipson Commission Report and the memorandum on Educational Policy in Nigeria. These reports laid out guidelines for government's aid and participation in provision of educational facilities. Post independence requirements for skilled manpower led to the adoption of the Ashby Commission Report as a basis for higher education. 1980 was set as the desired date for free compulsory education by a conference of African states. Nigeria, persuing this ideal goal, aimed at making education free at all levels and for every citizen. The burden and implications of these policies are examined in the context of projections of primary and secondary school enrollments, costs, and manpower needs. The cost of education is seen to rise with demand. By 1990, Nigeria will have about 24 million children to educate. With global inflationary trends continuing, costs of educational services and provision of facilities will rise substantially. The author recommends reducing demand for these services through population growth control as the best alternative solution.
Although Kenya was the 1st subSaharan country to announce a policy of fertility reduction and has had an active national family planning program since 1967, the program was shown to have had virtually no impact on the rate of population growth. The government thus launched new and more inclusive efforts. The Population Studies and Research Centre at the University of Nairobi was developed in an effort to overcome difficulties due to lack of qualified personnel, inadequate management, lack of useful research data and poor utilization of research data. The Centre's institutional framework, training program, and current and future research projects are outlined.
In this 1st review of Ghana's 1970 census, the author summarizes the steps that have been taken to deal with the organizational problems of the census with the aim of achieving greater degree of accuracy. The paper discusses the legal framework of the census, the administrative structure, the objectives and survey organizational problems including preenumeration activities, the main survey, content of questionnaire, method of enumeration, staff recruitment and training, editing, coding and punching, and publication program. Provisional results give a figure that was only 0.16% less than the final census figures obtained from the computer. On the basis of the high level of accuracy achieved, an improved publication program is proposed. In describing the 1970 census of Ghana, the author in this paper provides an inside new view of the immense organizational progress that has been made since the 1960s towards a more accurate African census. Recommendations for future surveys include updating maps, reducing the enumeration period, and shortening the time lag between completion of enumeration and publication of census results. Publication of more comprehensive provisional results and advanced publication of the urgently needed data on a sample basis should be considered as well.
This paper reviews from the point of view of a lawyer, the need for abortion, the state of the laws in Africa and hazards of illegal abortion encouraged by restrictive laws. The author then examines the trends in the liberalization of laws in Africa and poses the problem of intention towards liberalization and the tendency of the governments to continue retaining some aspects of the restrictive laws. It is concluded that restrictive abortion laws in many African countries have proved ineffective and should therefore be liberalized. Miller's 8 stages in a woman's reproductive career when she is especially vulnerable psychologically to unwanted pregnancy and the 5 aspects of ego psychology to explain these stages are delineated. Hazards of illegal abortions include use of unqualified personnel, unsanitary conditions, high mortality rate and a sense of punishment conveyed especially to the poor and uneducated which may deter them from seeking medical assistance and contraceptive advice after the operation. 7% of the world's population live in countries where abortion is prohibited; for 12% abortion is permitted only to save the life of the mother; 15% must have broad medical grounds for abortion; for 22% social factors are taken into consideration; 36% can have abortions at their own request, 8% are subject to restrictive abortion laws. Only Tunisia and Zambia in Africa have so far liberalized their abortion laws. Liberalization will substantially reduce frequency of illegal and/or self induced abortions and the incidence of illegitimate births. Women who practice contraception are more likely to accept abortion and those who have an abortion are more likely to accept contraceptive methods when available. Since Potts predicts that 1/3 of all married couples will have at least 1 unplanned pregnancy, liberalization of abortion laws cannot be denied on the argument that instead emphasis should be placed on prevention through family planning education and services. The specific intentions of Nigeria, Ghana, Zaire, Mali, Dahomey, Senegal and Kenya are given. It is concluded that various African governments believe incorrectly that providing contraception can avoid abortion. The author recommends educating these governments on the links between abortion and contraception and a push from appropriate associations in Africa for liberalization. Appendices list grounds for abortion in all countries of the world, the effect of the English Abortion Act (1967) on illegitimate births, and abortion deaths, and the text of the French law of 1920.
The paper examines the elite sector of Nigeria's population and its emerging role in development planning. The elite achievement and performance constitute a useful indicator of a wide range of characteristics of the population and is an important index for assessing the current changes in African societies. A definition of elite is adopted using a variety of criteria including material wealth and education, and avenues of entry. The characteristics of the elites, their performance and implications are examined. The paper concludes on the need to create the right atmosphere for involving an increasing proportion of the Nigerians into the elite segment, the need for enhancement and advancement of the elite as creators and innovators of change; the importance of the regional component of elite advancement; and mobility of the elite with economics. The elite group forms a powerful demographic class for influencing the spatial and temporal dimensions of current population changes in Africa.
The role of the returnee migrant in the development of the Savannah region of Western Nigeria is examined within the framework of a general hypothesis about the characteristics of the migrants and nonmigrants. From the socioeconomic data on these groups, significant differences emerge. It is assumed that return migrants are more enterprising than nonmigrants and that the type of skills acquired by migrants are those needed for development. 91% of return migrants are not involved in primary activities (e.g., farming) and have a better socioeconomic status even if they do return to agriculture. The majority have learned skills, organized cooperative unions, accumulated money and are given government loans on their return. They returnees as a group tend to establish "footloose" industries, speak more languages, have attained some Western type education (53% are literate), own a radio (90%), read newspapers and correspond with their colleagues who have moved to other parts of the country. Over 66% use modern credit facilities in banks and 23% insure their shops against risks of fire and theft. Educational levels of the children of migrants are significantly higher than nonmigrant's children; 78% of the return migrants had formulated plans for their children's future compared to 42% of the nonmigrants. Therefore, the return migrant represents a net gain in skills and entrepreneurship on the basis of which a spatial settlement strategy for the regeneration of the less developed parts of the country could be planned. Strategies for wide diffusion or concentration of the returnees in one area are rejected. The paper recommends settling a minimum of 1000 returnees in a central development unit surrounded by settlements in a region with a population density of 100/square mile. Services should be prioritized and emphasis placed on the marketing of food crops. 1 such development is described in Ogbomosho district in the Savannah region. Policy implications examined include the need for coordination and integration of the use of return migrants, the need for additional infrastructural (phsyical) facilities to realize development potential, and the need for a pricing policy on commodities.
This paper examines unemployment as it relates to rural-urban migration and also examines the gap between job expectation and job reality in Kenya. The author links changes in the laborforce to population increase and says that by the year 2000 the number of people in the laborforce is expected to increase 170%. With that rise there will also be an increase in the number of dependents needing care. Rural-urban migration poses the largest threat to unemployment. Urban population in the year 2000 is expected to be 4.2 times that of 1970. 66 cities in Africa have already reached the 100000 plus population mark in a 20 year period. Urban unemployment ranges from 10-25%. Because of low availability of investment capital and low level domestic savings the African economy has been unable to provide jobs. Another major cause of unemployment is the development of schools whose curricula is unrelated to Africas needs. While more people are educated no job opportunities exist for them. Population policy in respect to redistribution of the population must clearly be a priority. This means development of rural areas to ease urban pressure programs in which new economic growth regions would provide jobs for people and concentration on labor intensive rather than capital intensive industries. African nations must also develop plans for economic development family planning education health nutrition and recreation.
The paper examines the age patterns of fertility of selected African countries using Pavlik's new classification methods and other available methods such as the UN models. Extensive calculations of central measures of the frequency distributions of age specific fertility rates, namely the variance, the mean, the mode and the median, the degree of skewness and coefficients of variation as well as the estimation of the gradients of the relative age specific distributions at ages 22, 27, 32, 37, 42 respectively were made. Shifts in the mean age at motherhood have been examined for countries where data are available (Kenya, Uganda, Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi, Botswana, Swaziland, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Freetown, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt) and the relationship between the proportions married in the age group 15-29 and the percentage of age specific fertility falling into the 15-29 age group; the mean age at 1st marriage and the level of fertility were also studied. The results show that most of the countries examined are well fitted by the B.. type of the Pavlik's model in which 51-60% of the total fertility are in the 15-29 age group. When the UN classification methods have been used, it was found that the 2 methods gave essentially the same results. In the case of the UN classification models, it was found that most of the countries were well fitted by the UN Broad Peak Model whereas the 14 Francophone African countries are fitted by the early peak model which is the C.. type of Pavlik's model where the percentage falling into the 15-29 age group is 60% and over. Data on the shifts in the mean age at motherhood are available only for a few African countries. In the case of Kenya, it was found that the mean age at motherhood in 1962 was 30.5 years whereas in 1969 it was 29.8 years. The level of total fertility has also increased during the period. The conclusion is that changes in both level and shape are in the expected direction. The relationship between the proportion married at the ages 15 to 29 and the proportion of the age specific rates is not clear but in general the higher the proportion married in the age group 15 to 29 the higher the proportions of the total fertility falling into the 15-29 age group.
This paper describes mortality patterns among young adults aged 15 to 44 years seen at the Ahmadu Bello University Hospital, Kaduna, during the 3 year-period from January 1971 to December 1973. The findings among those under working-age (infants and children) and those above the age of 44 years have not been included. The prevention of mortality in this age group is an urgent priority because mortality at this period may be sufficient to cause the nation a serious economic and social loss. Mortality patterns are described in terms of age, sex and ethnic variations; figures on preventable deaths in different age groups are given. The infective and parasitic diseases (ICD 000-136) account for a high proportion of the deaths, being commoner in younger than in older adults. Meningitis and tuberculosis are responsible for over 50% of the deaths from infections. Many deaths are associated with adverse social and environmental conditions and should be preventable; chief of these is road traffic accident. Some complications of pregnancy and childbirth, too, are preventable. Obstructed labor, hemorrhage and eclampsia are high on the list of causes of maternal deaths. For the different categories of causes of mortality there are suggestions for epidemiological research to identify high risk groups and thus make possible surveillance, early diagnosis and the applications of preventive measures. Education in accident prevention is important and there should be more campaigns for safety on the road; it may also be necessary to back up health education with properly enforced legislation. The prevention of mortality among young adults could be measured in terms of the economic contributions that avoidance of these untimely deaths could have contributed as an asset to the national income. It is suggestsed that a mortality register should be established in each hospital in the country, and such registers may subsequently form the basis for a State or National Atlas of Disease Mortality.
Examined in this paper is population change with particular reference to spatial distribution. Thus, emphasis is on movement of people rather than on natural increase due to births and deaths. Analysis is based upon national census data for 1960 and 1970 and is carried out at macro and meso levels. Administrative regions and local authority areas are utilized as units of observation. Population distribution in Ghana is described for 1960 and 1970 and the difference in the 2 spatial patterns is analysed. The main hypothesis tested is that change in population size of the larger unit areas is a function of internal migration, immigration, emigration and degree of urbanization. Following tests of this hypothesis, interregional migration is isolated as a very important factor producing change. A subtheme of the discussion is the relationship between population change and a selected age group, 25 to 44 years. This cohort is of particular interest because it has been observed in many studies that most migrants fall within this age category. A significant drop in the proportion of total population aged 25 to 44 years between 1960 and 1970, is evident on the examination of census statistics, for the entire national population, for regions and even for urban areas. It is hypothesized that this marked decrease is a reflection of increased or accelerated movement of persons. Tests of this hypothesis reveal that factors, urbanisation and immigration/emigration combined with interregional migration, seem to have significant association with the observed decrease in the proportion of total population aged 25 to 44 years. Since the age structure for urban areas also exhibits this trait, it is concluded that immigration/emigration is more relevant. It is strongly suggested that the mass exodus of foreigners from Ghana following the 1969 enforcement of the Aliens Act is in some way connected with this demographic phenomenon. In the absence of relevant data, this is not conclusively proved in the paper although supporting evidence is put forward. Finally, brief comments are made on implications of this study for future research as well as for future national development strategy.
This paper analyzes the complex interrelationship between the rate of population growth, development and environmental capacity in Tropical Africa, and suggests policy guidelines for tackling these problems. 5 population problems which constitute an impediment to socioeconomic development and/or cause waste of natural resources are discussed: 1) Relatively low crude population densities; 2) Unevenness of population distribution; 3) High and constant fertility; 4) Low degree of urbanization despite high growth rates of existing urban areas; and 5) Higher proportion of children in the population implying large expenditures for education and employment. Although many population studies have shown that Africa has a low population density and a high level of natural resources, the author refutes this. A more realistic analysis of factors which explain tropical Africa's underdevelopment is its externally-oriented mode of development. 6 characteristics are given: 1) A high ratio of export to national income; 2) A high ratio of imports of gross domestic products, with the bulk of manufactured, consumer and capital goods being imported; 3) High capital imports in relation to aggregate domestic investment; 4) Small national markets; 5) Inadequate public sector revenues and low domestic savings; and 6) Limited scientific, technical and managerial capacity necessitating reliance on external sources for almost all requirements pertaining to technology and applied research. A holistic approach to development must be implemented by policy makers. Modern agricultural methods must be introduced. Governments must make sure that pollution control devices be installed in foreign-owned factories, and sewage systems must be installed in cities. Rural development, urban health facilities, family planning, adult education, management of resources, and control of pollution, among other things must also be implemented.
A KAP survey taken in 1972/3 by the national organization of women's unions of Cameroon, (OFUNC) in old Western Cameroon revealed that women wanted an ideal family of 6 children and that the age of a woman at 1st marriage should be 18 years, which coincides with the normal age of legal majority. They have also voiced concern about the rapid population growth which is capable of reaching 7 million in 1982. The women have likewise preferred polygamy to monogamy, despite the fact the the majority are Christians. Their greatest desire was to see sex education taught in secondary schools. A certain number of them recommended teaching it at the end of primary education. These women reflected the general pronatalist attitudes and practices which coincided with the official attitude. It is evident that Cameroon remains sensible at this time to a world population problem and has proper characteristics of its national territory. (author's modified)
An important characteristic of the Ghanaian population is its high potential for growth. The growth has been accompanied by profound changes in the age structure of the population. This paper analyses the population of Ghana with respect to changes in the age structure between 1960 and 1970 and the relationships of this kind of change with population growth. Increasing and declining trends are identified. The analysis reveals that at the 1970 census relatively fewer infants were returned than 1960 with the result that most districts recorded absolute losses among infants. The deficits are more pronounced in the predominately rural northern savanna lands; in contrast the large towns recorded substantial incraeses in the number of infants. The paper concludes by suggesting a method for computing the potential growth among infants as a basis for projecting population trends of each region in Ghana for the period 1970-1980.
In reviewing the effort of research workers in model testing with special reference to determinants of contraceptive usage, this paper draws on 2 fertility case studies in urban Ghana and central India. A brief description of path analysis technique, a special form of regression analysis, is given (weights are assigned to each variable for optimal prediction). In applying this technique to the case studies, the author notes some similarities in the adoption of family planning. This conclusion applies to education and income as a factor in the Indian case, and education and household status factors in the case of Ghana. In the case of India the effect is direct; for Ghana it is considered indirect. The advantages of path analysis technique include: 1) its flexibility in analyzing data in the most frequently arising circumstances, namely where an interval scale or dichotomous (dependent) variable is to be understood; 2) its ability to bridge the gap between sociological theory and statistical analysis. However, drawbacks in using regression models in testing social theories and models must be considered. Multiple regression assumes a 1 way scheme of cause and effect; a linear relationship between variables is also assumed but not always substantiated by reality e.g., family size may not change with socioeconomic status; types of data suitable for use is usually limited to ratio or interval data but social scientists frequently analyze nominal data such as religion, ethnic group or residence. In both the Ghanaian and Indian study, the data were not originally collected with the intention of performing a path analysis. However with both studies an initial attempt to test models in fertility/family planning behavior was made that is useful to the understanding of how the hypothesized relationships between variables in these models stand up to sophisticated statistical procedures. Tables accompanying the text include Mishler and Westoff's conceptual model for fertility research; Hill, Back and Stycos' model; the path analytic model, and its application to contraceptive use in urban Ghana and central India; and variables used in these case studies.
