Biodiversity is increasingly threatened by human land use and climate change, making predictive modeling crucial for conservation planning and the identification of priority conservation areas. Large-scale species distribution projections can be improved by integrating remotely sensed vegetation indices, as they reflect important vegetation and habitat characteristics. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) indicate vegetation productivity, while texture metrics derived from these indices reveal habitat structure. When combined with climatic variables, these indicators can significantly improve the accuracy of species distribution models (SDMs). In this study, we evaluated the performance of SDMs using vegetation indices, texture metrics, and climatic variables to predict the distribution of the Violet-throated Metaltail (Metallura baroni), a microendemic hummingbird restricted to the environmentally complex high-altitude regions of the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Using a backward-selection and cross-validation approach for predictor selection and the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm, we compared model performance using AUC values. Our results demonstrate that incorporating habitat structure indicators (NDVI- and NDWI-derived texture metrics) together with climatic variables significantly improves SDM performance, allowing better discrimination of shrub ecosystems where M. baroni occurs. This approach highlights the importance of integrating key aspects of habitat structure as indicators of resource availability, which directly influence the distribution of bird species in complex landscapes.
Spatial machine learning has matured considerably in recent years, providing powerful approaches for mapping and prediction. However, many challenges remain in achieving methodological robustness, transparency, and comparability. This paper examines six key methodological themes – validation, assessment, uncertainty quantification, algorithm design, software implementation, and reporting – and highlights the need for greater rigor to ensure reliable spatial predictions. We emphasize the importance of domain knowledge, appropriate sampling design, and prediction-domain adaptive cross-validation for realistic model evaluation. When training data fail to represent the prediction domain, areas beyond the model’s area of applicability should be masked, and performance should be reported only within unmasked regions. Uncertainty remains a prominent challenge, requiring methodological innovation to account for spatial dependencies and improved strategies for quantifying and communicating it to diverse audiences. Furthermore, while numerous methods now incorporate spatial information into machine learning, the lack of theoretical grounding and systematic benchmarking continues to constrain comparability and progress. Finally, we highlight the critical role of open, reproducible software tools and call for standardized reporting protocols tailored to spatial prediction workflows. Addressing these methodological and practical gaps will enhance reliability, transparency, and reproducibility in spatial machine learning applications.
Forest management has increasingly shifted from timber-focused production to multifunctionality, requiring scenario approaches that integrate socio-economic contexts and expert knowledge. For robust assessments of ecosystem service potentials (ESP), three key dimensions must be addressed: realism, by incorporating expert-based knowledge and socio-economic constraints; scalability, through standardized modeling techniques; and comparability, by ensuring applicability across different regions and forest types. We developed an interdisciplinary “story and simulation” approach, combining expert-based Delphi assessments with spatially explicit scenario modeling to assess ESP changes in Bavaria, Germany. This method integrates stakeholder perspectives with empirical ecosystem service models to enhance realism while maintaining scalability and comparability for broader applications. We assessed three scenarios of forest change: a Status Quo Scenario with stable drivers, an Intensified Use Scenario, and a Close-to-Nature Forestry Scenario. Across all scenarios, a transition from conifer-dominated forests toward mixed and broadleaf forests was expected, affecting between one-third and nearly half of the current coniferous forest area. The empirical ESP models revealed stable ESP levels at the landscape level, with only minor scenario-driven variations. We show that including socio-economic factors through an expert-driven approach reveals more moderate shifts than those predicted by purely optimization-based models. The projected transition towards mixed forests aligns with current European forest policy trends, but the speed and extent of this shift remain uncertain. Our interdisciplinary framework enhances realism by incorporating expert knowledge, improves scalability by utilizing empirical ESP models, and ensures comparability through a structured, transferable approach. This methodology provides a robust foundation for evidence-based forest policy, adaptable to diverse forest ecosystems and governance structures.
Myanmar is a disaster-prone country, experiencing frequent hazards, such as fires, floods, cyclones, landslides, heat-waves and droughts, as well as a high earthquake risk. In such countries, it is crucial that societies become as resilient as possible to disasters. To improve resilience, it is essential that there is a solid understanding of disaster awareness and preparedness throughout society, as this is a prerequisite for successful disaster risk management. In most countries, including Myanmar, mi-cro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) form the backbone of the economy and society. These enterprises generate income (by offering jobs) and make a significant contribution to the livelihoods of local people. However, very little is known about the relationship between such enterprises and disasters. The present study focuses on Myanmar and aims to reduce this knowledge gap by answering the following three questions: (1) How do enterprises perceive and assess disasters? (2) How in-tensively and with which measures do enterprises prepare for such an event? (3) What kind of differences in terms of disaster awareness and preparedness exist in relation to enterprise characteristics (e.g. enterprise size, previous disaster experience). The research is based on a mixed-methods approach. A quantitative survey was conducted with 300 enterprises in Taunggyi, Myanmar, in 2023, and 18 qualitative interviews were conducted with experts working in MSME development and enterprise owners in 2023 and 2024. The results show that awareness and preparedness measures are not satisfactory. While enterprises are well prepared with regard to fire extinguisher maintenance and hygiene measures, deficits exist regarding data security, warning apps and insurance coverage. Enterprises with previous disaster experience have higher awareness levels and have implemented more preparedness measures. Other enterprise characteristics (e.g. firm age and firm size) have a comparatively smaller impac.
Drawing on works in emotional geopolitics and critical toponymy, this paper explores the contested spatial politics of emotionally and geopolitically motivated processes of toponymic de-commemoration and commemoration, using examples from Belar us-related street names in Ukraine. The study relied on a diverse set of materials, including archival records, municipal council decisions, and reports from online media outlets, through the lens of an indicative survey of university students in Kyiv university as well as analysis of the toponymic semantics (meaning), public feedback, and spatial distribution of Belar us-related street names from 1991 to 2025 with an emphasis on the period of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022-2025. The paper brings to light that such street names serve as emotional, symbolic, and place-embedded geopolitical signals that reflect society's emotional and moral judgments rather than systematic governmental memory politics. The study reveals that Ukrainians' attitudes toward the 'Belarusian' street names are influenced by their perceptions of Belarus as a state and the Belarusian people, reflecting an emotional, impulsive, and often exaggerated personal reaction to the contemporary and historical context of Ukrainian-Belarusian relations. This paper contributes to the ongoing disciplinary debates regarding the forms of emotional geopolitics and the emotional aspects of political toponyms.
In the debate on climate change and migration, there is growing recognition that human mobilities can function as a means of adaptation to climate change. While much research has focused on financial remittances for adaptation, less attention has been paid to social remittances. We adopt an im/mobilities perspective to examine the pathways of social remittances related to agricultural practices in times of environmental stress. By doing so, we push the conceptualization of social remittance implementation as more than a discrete step, illuminating it instead as a process with meandering speeds and rhythms. Based on intensive qualitative research carried out between July 2021 and November 2022 in Skoura M'Daz, a small town in Morocco, we analyze factors mobilizing and immobilizing the implementation of social remittances. We focus on incorporated social remittances, particularly new ideas or knowledge related to new agricultural practices that could potentially be enacted, like constructing drip irrigation systems and digging wells. Mobilizing factors like personal wealth and access to digital information contributed to their implementation, while immobilizing factors prolonged, delayed, or stopped a remittance flow altogether. Implementation processes also featured stop-and-go, ebbing and flowing rhythms of im/mobilization, where agents made plans, worked around constraints, or put goals on backburners, resulting in, what we name, latent social remittances. This temporal dimension provides opportunities for unexpected transformations and outcomes beyond initial formation that should be taken into consideration when studying the relationships among mobilities, social remittances, and climate adaptation.
This paper examines the intersection of urban land appropriation with greening and ungreening in informal settlements, focusing on how internal power struggles drive displacement and exacerbate inequality. Using Nairobi’s Pumwani–Majengo as a case study, the research applies the Situated Urban Political Ecology (SUPE) framework, grounded in environmental justice, to analyse disputes over green spaces. Fieldwork combined semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions, life histories, field observations, and archival review with GIS and Landsat-based spatial analysis. Adaptive sampling, reflexivity, and methodological triangulation were used to navigate sensitive contexts and ensure data robustness. Displacement extends beyond physical relocation, severing social, cultural, and economic ties that are vital to resilience. Residents respond through resignation, negotiation, or active resistance. ‘Greening’ and ‘ungreening’ occur simultaneously, politicised and tied to dispossession, enclosure, and green ‘evictions’ that disproportionately affect vulnerable groups, particularly in riparian areas. Land changes create socioeconomic enclaves, privileging wealthier newcomers and marginalising low-income residents. The study challenges the notion of urban green spaces as neutral public goods, showing their appropriation for elite interests, and contributes to debates on environmental governance and land commodification in informal contexts by illustrating how green space disputes reproduce socio-spatial inequalities in rapidly growing cities.
The aim of this study is to provide an insight of students’ (mis-)conceptions of urban adaptation strategies for climate change. For this purpose, drawings and texts were produced by secondary school students (n = 87) aged 16-18 years from four secondary schools in Hamburg, Germany. The data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. The results show that the majority of students cannot distinguish between climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Regarding climate adaptation strategies in urban areas, students predominantly focus on non-building-related approaches, while some strategies in the field of building-related strategies and policy are not taken into account. There are no major differences between the drawn and text elements. Regarding the (mis-)conceptions and gaps in knowledge, there is a need for climate education to focus more thoroughly on urban adaptation strategies to successfully achieve conceptual change and enhance urban adaptive capacity.
This paper seeks to investigate the role played by local actors involved in the catering sector in relation to the use of local food products and decarbonization processes in their activities. The geographical framework in which the research is carried out is the high mountains of the western Catalan Pyrenees. The methods used in its elaboration were based on the delimitation and clarification of the dimensions of the local product to later, through fieldwork, survey the actors in relation to the proposed theme. A basic statistical treatment was used with the answers of the informants to conclude with the pertinent conclusions. In the first part of the paper, the definition of the four dimensions of the local agri-food product (cultural, social, economic and environmental) is deepened. In the development of this work, general guidelines were found that suggest that the restorers of the study area are concerned because their region is affected by climate change and that some of them implement actions in this regard. In relation to the use of local agri-food products, they believe that the most important attribute is cultural and not environmental and, within the latter, the contribution to the fight against climate change occupies a prominent place. Finally, before the conclusions, the assessments on the different decarbonization options for their businesses are collected.
In 2024, the Working Group on Marine and Coastal Geography (Arbeitskreis Geographie der Meere und Küsten, AMK) looked back on 40 years of exchange and collaboration between coastal scientists and professionals. Since its foundation in 1983 as a working group of the German Society for Geography (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Geographie, DGfG) (Paffen & Kortum 1984; Zimmermann 1984), the AMK has developed into a central platform for research on coastal geographical research in German-speaking countries, fostering a dialogue across physical and human geography as well as many neighbouring disciplines. This special issue marks the anniversary by highlighting both contemporary research perspectives in marine and coastal geography based on global examples and the practices of coastal observation and protection along the German coasts.
Global plastics production has grown rapidly in recent decades and is leading to an increased discharge of plastic waste into the environment, presenting a complex socio-ecological problem. The southern North Sea and its tributaries are affected by plastic pollution due to dense population, industrial use, as well as tourism and recreational activities. A paradigm shift is necessary to reduce the outflow of plastic waste from rivers and inland waters into the North Sea. In order to foster a socio-ecological transformation, one opportunity is to involve stakeholders from all sectors, who regulate, produce, trade, use, recycle and dispose plastic products, through a transdisciplinary process. Real-world laboratories as a science-practice interaction approach are conceptualised to produce robust knowledge to solve real-world environmental and societal challenges. The aim of this study is to determine how the design and early implementation phases of real-world laboratories should be executed to achieve socio-ecological transformation. We assessed the case study of an inaugural regional stakeholder meeting of the real-world laboratory ‘Plastic-FREE-sia’ in Northwest Germany by in-event observations and a subsequent participant survey. Our findings of this stakeholder workshop highlight the significance of involving diverse stakeholders from multiple sectors in the real-world laboratory process and emphasise the need for balanced representation. The interests, benefits and goals of individual stakeholders must be identified from the outset and aligned with the socio-ecological problem setting, in order to prevent conflicting objectives. Concluding recommendations for the design and early implementation phases of future real-world laboratories are formulated.
Global plastics production has grown rapidly in recent decades and is leading to an increased discharge of plastic waste into the environment, presenting a complex socio-ecological problem. The southern North Sea and its tributaries are affected by plastic pollution due to dense population, industrial use, as well as tourism and recreational activities. A paradigm shift is necessary to reduce the outflow of plastic waste from rivers and inland waters into the North Sea. In order to foster a socio-ecological transformation, one opportunity is to involve stakeholders from all sectors, who regulate, produce, trade, use, recycle and dispose plastic products, through a transdisciplinary process. Real-world laboratories as a science-practice interaction approach are conceptualised to produce robust knowledge to solve real-world environmental and societal challenges. The aim of this study is to determine how the design and early implementation phases of real-world laboratories should be executed to achieve socio-ecological transformation. We assessed the case study of an inaugural regional stakeholder meeting of the real-world laboratory 'Plastic-FREE-sia' in Northwest Germany by in-event observations and a subsequent participant survey. Our findings of this stakeholder workshop highlight the significance of involving diverse stakeholders from multiple sectors in the real-world laboratory process and emphasise the need for balanced representation. The interests, benefits and goals of individual stakeholders must be identified from the outset and aligned with the socioecological problem setting, in order to prevent conflicting objectives. Concluding recommendations for the design and early implementation phases of future real-world laboratories are formulated.
Sea Level Rise (SLR) has been widely acknowledged as a long-term challenge that threatens large numbers of coastal areas. Yet, extreme sea-level rise (ESLR) often has an even more immediate impact on planning local coastal defense infrastructure. This is also the case for the German North Sea islands, including Norderney and Borkum. Existing studies often lack detailed localized projections and comprehensive assessments, creating a gap in precise impact estimation and stakeholder engagement. Understanding stakeholder perceptions of urgency is critical for informed decision-making. This article aims to address this gap by providing high-resolution ESLR projections and examining the perceptions and priorities of different stakeholder groups on these islands. A hybrid modeling approach, integrating physical and geostatistical components, was employed to project ESLR for the years 2050 and 2100 under various Representative Concentration Pathways. Furthermore, semi-structured interviews with stakeholders from tourism, politics, administration, and environmental management were conducted to capture the range of attitudes and concerns regarding ESLR and related adaptation measures. The results indicate a potential sea level rise of more than 2 meters for Norderney and Borkum by 2100. Yet, stakeholder interviews reveal a wide disparity in perceptions; environmental actors express high urgency, while others, particularly among those in the tourism sector, see ESLR as a more distant concern, leading to a reduced motivation for immediate action as other, more pressing short-term challenges are prioritized. Our findings highlight the need for policy strategies that integrate economic and environmental goals, ensuring effective adaptation measures that address both current and future challenges.
Hurricane Matthew struck the province of Guant & aacute;namo in southeastern Cuba in 2016 by making landfall as the first and only hurricane reaching category 4 in documented history. We surveyed transport path, distance and mode of coastal boulder deposits (CBD) after the event at three coastal sites and compared them with thepre-Matthewboulderscape, which reflects the effects of extreme-wave events on millennial time scales. The application of a dimensionless analytical framework comparing elevation, CBD size and wave climate with a global dataset of storm-transported CBD shows that boulder transport during Matthew is at the uppermost possible limit, while larger boulders that remained inactive hint to even more intense hurricanes or a large tsunami in the prehistoric past. Most observations support typical patterns of storm-transported CBD in carbonate environments, such as a source at the cliff edge, preferential sourcing and clustering at shoreline indentations and a stepwise movement inland during multiple storm events. The study shows that Hurricane Matthew is not unique in Guant & aacute;namo in terms of intensity on larger, prehistoric time scales. At the same time, recurrence intervals of highest-category hurricanes in this region may decrease with ongoing climate change prompting the need to use the inland distribution of CBD plus additional buffer as minimum setback zones in coastal hazard management.
Tropical cyclones and storm surges are a major threat to coastal communities of the Philippines. On 08th No-vember 2013, category 5 Typhoon Haiyan (local name: Yolanda) made landfall on the islands of Eastern Visayas and caused more than 6000 casualties and severe damage to infrastructure and habitats. To assess the geomorphic impact of one of the strongest tropical cyclones on record, three post-typhoon surveys were conducted in 2014, 2015 and 2016 at two severely affected sites on the islands of Leyte and Samar. They aimed at documenting Haiyan-related erosional features and sand deposits. The sites have different geomorphic and geological settings, and exposure to the typhoon track. Differential global navigation satellite system (DGNSS) measurements and sediment analyses were used to document erosion and washover deposition caused by waves and coastal flooding of the beach ridge systems, as well as their recovery and changes over time. Shoreline changes were measured on high-resolution satellite images using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to determine the typhoon's impact and recovery potential at a larger spatial scale. The results show the potential to identify storm-wave erosion and washover deposits in sandy ridge sequences across larger time scales. However, fine sedimentary signatures, such as millimetre-scale lamination, may be rapidly overprinted by bioturbation and geomorphic reorganisation of the coast. The coastline tends to return to its pre-storm equilibrium, whereas the pace depends on whether eroded sands remain within reach of the long-term wave regime, on the frequency of subsequent high-category storms and very local geomorphic conditions.
Climate change is challenging coastal resilience worldwide, with hard engineering coastal protection measures reaching their limits and becoming increasingly unsustainable. The Wadden Sea, a UNESCO World Heritage natural site, illustrates this dilemma, hemmed in between a rigid dike line and an encroaching North Sea. While the term resilience gains traction in both policy and academia, its meaning remains contested: Is the goal to keep the shoreline unchanged, safeguard communities, protect ecosystems or something else? To clarify what Resilience to Wad could look like, we examine how key actors along the Schleswig-Holstein Wadden Sea perceive coastal resilience and which coastal protection measures they favour. Semi-structured interviews, observations, and policy document analysis were used to understand these perceptions and key influencing factors. Findings reveal that stakeholders tend to favour conventional hard engineering solutions to coastal management due to entrenched path dependencies and strong place attachment. Yet where those lock-ins are weaker and cultural landscapes align more with the tidal flats, a shift in coastal management is evident. Institutions continue to prioritise people and material assets while treating the ecosystem as separate from the social fabric. Broadening the political agenda to embrace social-ecological interdependence is therefore pivotal for negotiating a shared, stakeholder-driven vision of a climate-resilient Wadden Sea. Collectively, our study advances the literature by (1) introducing the Coastal Resilience Bloom linking perceptions and practice, (2) evidencing an emerging - albeit uneven and place-specific - resilience turn, and (3) showing how policy framing and path dependencies shape acceptance of more innovative coastal protection measures.
The Mediterranean Sea is one of the world’s most biologically diverse yet ecologically threatened marine ecosystems. In response to increasing environmental pressures, marine protected areas such as Port-Cros National Park in France play a crucial role in conservation efforts. However, effective marine protection requires more than legal frameworks. It demands an ocean-literate public that understands the interconnectedness of marine ecosystems and human activities, and has the capacity to engage in conservation efforts. This study investigates ocean literacy among 405 residents and visitors to Port-Cros National Park, with a particular focus on information seeking, knowledge of marine issues, and awareness and concern about environmental threats. Results indicate high awareness and concern about marine pollution but only moderate active information seeking, knowledge of ecological conditions and species population trends. Plastic and oil pollution were most frequently noted, with online sources as the primary information channel. Although residents reported more proactive information seeking and higher awareness of pollution, concern and knowledge levels were similar across residency groups, with visitors even demonstrating a better understanding of declining fish populations. The findings underscore the importance of place-based marine education initiatives that address passive information acquisition and knowledge gaps while leveraging existing emotional connections to the marine environment. Accessible, solution-oriented communication strategies that convey the full range of ecological threats seem essential to strengthen regional ocean literacy and promote sustained, informed engagement with marine ecosystems in Port-Cros National Park.
In 2020, the German Working Group on water issues of the Federal States and the Federal Government represented by the Federal Environment Ministry (LAWA) introduced the precautionary measure of 1.0 m for the expected sea level rise due to climate change for the next 100 years. As a result, the framework of tasks for the coastal protection in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and other coastal federal states changed significantly. The most relevant consequences are the increase in mean water levels and the associated expansion of permanently inundated zones. In addition, rising mean water levels are accompanied by an expected analogous increase in extreme water levels during storm surges and, therefore, a further extension of potentially flooded areas in these cases. Moreover, sea level rise or a change in meteorological and hydrodynamic conditions is expected to lead to profound changes in coastal morphology and its rate of development. Due to the intense use of widespread lowland areas, changes in mean and extreme water levels as well as coastal morphodynamics can be assumed to have a considerable impact on existing forms of land use. The associated number of potentially concerned inhabitants and the existing property values lead to a considerable rise in the potential for flood-related damages. Increasing requirements, especially with regard to design events, will force the state coastal protection in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania to adapt to a new (natural and socio-economic) framework and to align with other spatially relevant interests. This is accompanied by an increased need for the state coastal protection administration for the most reliable long-term projections, advanced design approaches and efficient adaptation strategies in order to meet these challenges. The purpose of this paper is not a presentation of new scientific data, but to identify and explain foreseeable challenges and knowledge deficits for state coastal protection taking the perspective of the public administration based on experience, measurements, third party scientific studies and definitions by expert committees.
