Abstract Fire spread prediction maps (FSPMs) present a distinct visualisation challenge: they must simultaneously communicate current fire extent (known risk) and predicted fire spread (uncertain risk) within a single, readable map. The communication of risk and uncertainty represents one of the most persistent challenges in science communication. This study investigates how visual representations of risk and uncertainty on fire spread prediction maps affect community comprehension, risk perceptions, and protective action intentions. Six focus groups (n = 34) were conducted in peri-urban and regional locations across three Australian states, with participants evaluating jurisdiction-specific maps depicting 24-hour fire spread predictions. Findings reveal that colour, the primary visual encoding tool, was consistently misinterpreted: graduated red hues intended to communicate temporal progression were read as a risk hierarchy, generating false senses of security for those in lighter-shaded zones. Participants frequently conflated fire spread predictions with existing incident warning areas, and the layering of these elements on a single map overwhelmed parallel processing capacity. Uncertainty was anchored in participants' own knowledge of weather variability (e.g., wind), which was absent from the maps, rather than specific design choices. FSPMs functioned as cues for pre-decisional information-seeking rather than direct triggers for protective action. These findings suggest that effective risk visualisation requires technically accurate visual encoding but also deliberate alignment between design choices and how communities cognitively and emotionally process spatial hazard information under stress.
Abstract Tornadoes remain a dangerous and unpredictable hazard in the U.S., particularly for individuals with limited access to safe shelter. Community tornado shelters are intended to provide protection for households lacking adequate in-home options. Still, access alone does not guarantee use. This study applied an operant behavioral economic framework to examine how distance to a community shelter shapes protective action during a simulated tornado warning. In a discrete-choice demand task embedded in a statewide survey, 1,859 Kansas residents indicated whether they would wait, shelter at home, or travel to a community shelter during a tornado scenario. Consistent with a barrier effect, travel time required to reach the community shelter reduced the odds of leaving for a community shelter, even after adjusting for demographics, housing characteristics, and hazard-related factors. Residents of multifamily and manufactured homes were more likely to use community shelters than those in single-family homes, whereas having a basement substantially reduced the likelihood of leaving. Socioeconomic patterns were also evident: middle-income households were most likely to leave, and higher educational attainment was associated with greater tendency to shelter at home rather than wait for further notice. These findings emphasize distance as a quantifiable, modifiable barrier to tornado safety and demonstrate how behavioral economic methods can inform evidence-based standards for shelter siting, access, and communication in support of improved hazard resilience.
Abstract This paper examines how Americans assign responsibility for the rising urban wildfire risk and how those judgments influence their support for pre- or post-disaster planning and policy. Urban wildfires are becoming more destructive because of a combination of factors including climate change, expansion of settlement into the wildland–urban interface, fuel accumulation from fire suppression policies, and the failure of older infrastructure. Using two surveys conducted in summer 2025, a national U.S. sample and a California-focused sample, the study investigates public perceptions of wildfire trends, attribution of causation to climate change versus government mismanagement, and support for related mitigation and adaptation policies. The results show broad agreement across partisan groups that urban wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity. However, much like the messaging from the media and partisan elites, Democrats were significantly more likely to attribute the increase primarily to climate change, while Republicans were more likely to emphasize poor government management of forests. Californians were more likely than national respondents to view both climate change and government mismanagement as contributing causes, suggesting that proximity to wildfire risk and prolonged media exposure may encourage more multifaceted understandings of wildfire causation. Beliefs about causation were strongly associated with policy preferences: attribution to climate change predicted support for climate mitigation policies, while attribution to government mismanagement predicted support for fire-management policies. The findings suggest that communication emphasizing the multi-causal nature of urban wildfires may reduce polarization and build broader support for integrated wildfire governance strategies.
Abstract Enterprise-led green technology innovation (GTI) is pivotal for achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. This study develops a heterogeneous-agent evolutionary game model to evaluate how a portfolio of market-based policies which contains environmental taxes, carbon emission trading, and subsidies influences the innovation strategies of large and medium-sized enterprises (LMEs) versus small and micro enterprises (SMEs). By incorporating “innovation success probability” as a key parameter, our model analyzes the individual and synergistic effects of these instruments. Our findings are threefold. First, policy effectiveness is highly contingent on firm scale; SMEs require significantly stronger policy support than LMEs to adopt GTI as an evolutionarily stable strategy. Second, a combined policy portfolio is markedly superior to any single instrument due to both synergistic and substitution effects, which allow for flexible regulatory design. Third, external factors such as the “technological dividends” stemming from intelligent supervision, the “institutional dividends” from optimized tax structures, and the “dynamic efficiency dividend” arising from firms’ “learning effects” can amplify policy impact, thereby creating a pathway to Pareto-improving outcomes. Our heterogeneous-agent evolutionary game framework captures firms' differentiated responses to climate policy instruments, revealing when market-based policies succeed or fail in inducing genuine technological transitions, thereby offering microfoundational insights into macro climate outcomes and guiding targeted, differentiated policy design for China’s green transformation.
Abstract Northern Algeria is a transitional zone between the Mediterranean and the Sahara, yet the spatiotemporal structure of its long-term precipitation trends remains poorly studied. This study analyses 124 years of monthly precipitation data (1901-2024) extracted from the CRU-TS4.09 gridded dataset (0.5°×0.5°) at 50 stations distributed across the region. Three non-parametric statistical tools such as the Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen’s Slope estimator, and the Pettitt homogeneity test were combined with Ordinary Kriging interpolation and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to characterize the chronology, magnitude, and spatial structure of precipitation shift. Results reveal significant negative trends at the majority of stations (p<0.05), with annual decline rates ranging from -7.3% in northeastern coastal zones to -29.5% in the central and south-central area. Pettitt breakpoint analysis identifies a west-to-east temporal gradient in regime shift chronology: western stations experienced structural breaks as early as 1967, whereas eastern stations did not undergo comparable transitions until 2000-2011. Seasonal analysis shows that rainfall decline is concentrated in the winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) seasons. While summer and autumn distributions remain stable. PCA-based climatic regionalization outlines four clear clusters; characterized by contrasting rainfall, trend magnitude, and seasonal break chronology. The annual 400 mm isohyet corresponding to the critical threshold for viable rainfed cereal production, has shifted northward and contracted significantly in the recent 1981–2024 sub-period relative to the centennial baseline. These findings demonstrate that Algeria is experiencing a differentiated and irreversible hydroclimatic reorganization with consequences for cereal production viability. Reorient farm policy spatially to post-1980 rainfall, not historic norms.
