Abstract Lightning is a significant yet underreported hazard across Africa, with casualty rates far exceeding those in developed nations. This study analyzes 1,290 lightning incident reports from the African Lightning Incident Database (ALID), covering 44 countries between 2018 and 2023, documenting 3,047 fatalities and 3,703 injuries. We characterize African lightning risk through the Hazard-Exposure-Vulnerability framework. Seasonal casualty patterns closely follow hemispheric thunderstorm activity (hazard). National casualty rates in several central and southern African countries exceed 20 per million annually, which is roughly 20 times higher than developed nations. Only 13% of African incidents involve single victims compared to 90%+ in the U.S. and U.K., with an average of 5.3 casualties per event reflecting concentrated exposure in group settings. Nearly half (49.6%) of casualties occur indoors in buildings lacking lightning protection, and children account for 57.4% of known casualties, often at unprotected schools (vulnerability). Risk assessment for 15 countries identifies five Very High Risk countries (DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, Malawi, Guinea) where hazard, exposure, and vulnerability interact to produce extreme casualty risk. Despite reporting limitations, ALID provides foundational evidence for risk characterization and supports targeted interventions including improved building standards for schools and public spaces, region-specific safety education, and expanded early-warning systems to reduce Africa’s disproportionate lightning impacts.
Abstract In the context of intensified global climate governance, accurately assessing how institutionalized ecological conservation reshapes regional carbon-reduction pathways holds significant practical importance. Treating the official establishment of China’s first batch of national parks in 2021 as a quasi-natural experiment, this study systematically examines how the national park system affects county-level carbon emission intensity. Specifically, we construct a propensity score matching–difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) model using a balanced panel dataset of 120 counties from 2018 to 2023 to identify the policy’s impacts and its underlying mechanisms. The findings demonstrate that the establishment of national parks reduces county-level carbon emission intensity. Mechanism analyses reveal that national parks reduce carbon emissions through a dual pathway: fostering tertiary sector growth and enhancing forest ecological benefits. This highlights a synergy between institutional constraints and ecological carbon sequestration. Furthermore, the emission reduction effects are more pronounced in counties characterized by favorable geographical locations, rich natural endowments, solid economic foundations, optimized industrial structures, and strong capacities for governance and social absorption. This study provides causal evidence at the county level regarding the impact of institutional conservation on carbon emissions. By doing so, it broadens the comprehensive evaluation framework for the climate governance functions of protected areas. Furthermore, the findings offer policy recommendations for optimizing the spatial layout of national parks and advancing regional eco-economic transitions.
Abstract The National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty [track-forecast cone (TFC)] product was updated to include inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, but the nonexpert interpretation of this widely used forecast graphic remains unclear. To examine how these changes are perceived, an online experiment was conducted during the experimental phase of the inland-enhanced TFC (e-TFC), prior to its operational implementation. Residents ( N = 398) in Florida and Georgia were randomly assigned to view either the coastal-only or coastal/inland e-TFC and then answered a questionnaire. From a risk communication perspective, the study assessed how visual modifications to a familiar forecast product influence perceived interpretability, perceived risk, and intended protective actions. The data revealed that those who viewed the inland additions reported significantly higher perceived ability to identify the size of the storm, even though this is not explicitly conveyed by the graphic, and reported greater perceived ability to identify regions where watches had been issued, compared to those who viewed the coastal-only graphic. However, no differences between conditions appeared on the remaining perceived interpretability items, perceived risk (e.g., severity/susceptibility of the threat presented in the graphic), or intentions to take protective action. Suggested visual changes and practical implications for the NHC are discussed.
Abstract Emergency managers (EMs) play a critical role in disseminating risk information to protect their communities from natural hazards, such as wildfires. The Integrated Warning Team Fire Warning (IWT FRW) approach is a new process where National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters collaborate with local EMs, forestry services, and fire managers to issue fire warnings to alert the public about ongoing wildfire hazards. While the IWT FRW process has been successfully used operationally in NWS forecast offices in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, less is known about how fire warnings and prefire fire weather products are understood, communicated, and used more generally among key partners, particularly emergency managers. Researchers developed and distributed a survey to Oklahoma EMs to obtain a baseline knowledge of their understanding and use of fire weather information and products, operational procedures during fire weather conditions and ongoing fires, and how fire warnings were received and disseminated. Results indicate that Oklahoma EMs recognize that wildfires pose significant risk to their jurisdictions, with 70% rating their jurisdiction as “high” or “very high” risk. Due to this level of threat awareness, EMs reported seeking out or receiving fire weather information from a number of sources, including the NWS, Oklahoma Forestry Service, and Oklahoma Mesonet/OK-FIRE. EMs also shared fire weather forecast information with their fire departments, response partners, local elected officials, and the public. Significance Statement This work evaluates emergency manager awareness of and use of fire weather products from the National Weather Service, including an Integrated Fire Warning approach. Survey data show that most Oklahoma emergency managers (EMs) are aware of fire products and warnings, even if they have not experienced them before.
Abstract Floodplain communities face persistent and compounding challenges as climate change and urban development increase the frequency and severity of flooding events. This case study examines how residents living near the Shunganunga Creek floodplain in Topeka, Kansas, perceive recurring flood risks and respond to current communication strategies. Using 11 semi-structured interviews analyzed through reflexive thematic analysis, we identified four major themes shaping risk perception: socioeconomic inequities, proximity and lived experience, competing hazards, and community dynamics. We then applied Protection Motivation Theory to evaluate how threat and coping appraisals shape residents’ ability and willingness to take protective action. Findings reveal that residents often recognize flood risk but lack confidence in their ability to respond effectively, citing financial, informational, and emotional barriers. We argue that existing flood messaging, such as the “Turn Around, Don’t Drown®” campaign, does not adequately address the realities of highly vulnerable floodplain populations. We recommend community-driven, locally tailored communication that builds trust, strengthens coping efficacy, and leverages existing social networks to enhance preparedness. These insights offer practical pathways for refining flood risk communication in urban floodplains and emphasize the broader need for communication strategies that adapt to evolving climate risks.
Abstract As flood risks increase, many people struggle to interpret forecasts, visuals, and other risk information designed to guide decision-making. Yet, little is known about how people interpret such graphics and translate them into action. This study surveyed how U.S. adults make flood preparedness decisions, focusing on the influence of climate science literacy, graph interpretation skills, and sociodemographic factors. Participants completed two scenario-based decision tasks featuring extreme precipitation and explained their choices, confidence, and perceived flood likelihood. Results show that stronger graph interpretation skills and higher climate literacy are associated with more protective decisions, greater confidence, and reasoning grounded in economic considerations, flood risk assessment, or precautionary thinking. Others relied on intuition or data interpretation to make decisions, while a subset of responses reflected misconceptions about flood risk, highlighting gaps in public understanding. Participants identifying as more politically conservative reported greater confidence even when choosing less protective options, whereas nonmale participants perceived higher flood likelihood yet expressed lower confidence, indicating a mismatch between confidence and protective behavior. Qualitative responses further suggest that influences beyond the measured variables—such as prior experiences or personal circumstances—may shape how individuals interpret risk and make decisions. Overall, flood risk communication should move beyond a one-size-fits-all approach by pairing clear, accessible information with strategies that support interpretation and reflect diverse audiences and decision contexts. Significance Statement Extreme precipitation and associated flood risks are increasing with climate change, forcing many people to decide how best to stay safe and protect their homes. This study examined how adults in the United States make decisions about flood preparedness using hypothetical scenarios. We found that people who understand climate science and can interpret graphs tend to choose stronger protective actions. Personal factors such as age, political identity, race, and life circumstances also influenced decisions. However, persistent flood myths, such as believing a home on a hill is safe, highlight gaps in understanding that may reduce protective actions. Strengthening people’s climate knowledge and data skills, while tailoring flood messages to diverse communities, can help them make safer and more informed choices.
This study seeks to examine the relationship between climate change concern, fertility awareness, and the desire to have children among women of reproductive age. This cross-sectional study, using a descriptive and correlational design, was conducted with 551 women aged 18–49 years living in Türkiye. Data were collected online using the Descriptive Information Form, Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS), Fertility Awareness Scale (FAS), and Fertility Desire Scale (FDS). Data analysis was performed using SPSS 26.0. Participants’ mean scores were 29.42±9.87 for CCWS, 63.44±14.95 for FAS, and 57.88±14.02 for FDS. There were weak, positive, and statistically significant correlations between CCWS and FAS (r=.234, p<.001) and CCWS and FDS (r=.195, p<.001). A moderate, positive, and statistically significant correlation was observed between FAS and FDS (r=.309, p<.001). Climate change concern significantly predicted both fertility awareness and the desire to have children (p<.05). Women’s climate change concern, fertility awareness, and desire to have children were found to be at a moderate level. As concerns about climate change increased, so did fertility awareness and the desire to have children. Moreover, increased fertility awareness was associated with a heightened desire to have children.
Uncertainty is inherent to all sciences and can be studied from several different perspectives. However, best practices for climate scientists communicating uncertainty in climate projections are unclear. As anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the impacts of human activity on the climate system have become more apparent. This makes the communication of uncertainty in the climate projections critical to decision-makers. Further, the public often equates science to certainty. Yet, it is critical to understand that climate projections are not the future and that projections themselves contain several sources of uncertainty. As such, this review makes four primary recommendations to guide future research and considerations when communicating uncertainty. The goal is to provide a central place for climate scientists to have crucial conversations on how to communicate this uncertainty to facilitate decision-making. First, a standardized uncertainty communication framework, specific to climate projections, should be developed and implemented. Second, research is needed to determine how to communicate which climate projections are best representing current reality. This is critical given recent funding uncertainties that could impact the ability to make more certain climate projections. Third, there is a lack of research on how different decision-makers perceive uncertainty, which could point to a need to develop industry-specific uncertainty communication practices when developing a larger, universal uncertainty communication framework. Finally, we recommend investigating whether too much emphasis is placed on the potential impacts of climate change (negative framing of uncertainty) rather than on actions the public can take to reduce the projected warming (positive framing). Communicating uncertainty in the climate projections is crucial to informing and enhancing decision-making processes in sectors that are exceptionally impacted by changes in the climate (e.g., water resource managers, farmers, insurance companies, etc.). Yet, best practices for communicating climate projection uncertainty are not universal and unclear. The goal for this review is to help facilitate critical conversations around the need to standardize climate projection uncertainty communication. This review makes four primary recommendations to guide future research efforts.
As the volume of weather information grows, forecasters must prioritize what to include in public-facing forecasts where time and space are limited. This study examines the types of information the public seeks before severe weather events and how these preferences shift over time. We analyzed public questions posted on National Weather Service (NWS) social media accounts during 35 severe weather events between 2019 and 2021. Each question was coded into one of eight information categories: chance, location, timing, severity, impacts, protective actions, hazard, and miscellaneous. Location information was requested most often, followed by chance and timing. While the demand for location details varied across county warning areas, it consistently ranked highest. Moreover, requests for location information increased sharply as events approached, while interest in other categories declined. These findings underscore the importance of including clear, specific location cues, such as landmarks and major cities, in NWS graphics and posts to help people understand their risk.
This paper examines the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) rating launches on corporate climate transition risk exposure using data from Chinese A-share listed companies (2012-22) and the ESG rating events of SynTao Green Finance (SynTaoGF) as a quasi-natural experiment. The findings reveal that ESG rating issuance significantly mitigates corporate climate transition risk exposure, with more pronounced effects for non-state-owned corporations, corporations with higher institutional ownership, corporations with a higher proportion of board members with environmental backgrounds, those in heavily polluting industries, and those subject to stricter environmental regulations. Mechanism analysis indicates that ESG rating reduces corporate climate transition risk exposure via three channels: optimizing internal strategies, stimulating green practices, and enhancing external supervision. Further analysis reveals that ESG rating exerts a spillover effect in mitigating corporate climate transition risk exposure, which is further amplified by industry competition. Additionally, the study reveals that ESG ratings generate positive economic outcomes by enhancing corporate value, improving stock liquidity, and reducing return volatility. This study offers valuable insights into addressing climate challenges and demonstrates the effectiveness of ESG market-based oversight.
This study investigates the relationship between U.S. investor attention, green investments, renewable energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions across various conditional quantiles and frequencies. We employ the quantile-on-quantile kernel-based regularized least squares machine learning, wavelet quantile regression, and quantileon-quantile Granger causality methodologies using U.S. monthly data spanning from July 2014 to January 2024. The empirical findings of quantile-based dependence indicate that U.S. investor attention is positively correlated with municipal green bonds, clean energy equity, and renewable energy consumption across different conditional quantiles and time horizons. These results suggest that increased investor attention to green initiatives drives higher demand for green finance assets and renewable energy. In contrast, we identify a significant negative dependence between investor attention and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions across various tail distributions and horizons, implying that greater attention to green investments and sustainable practices enhances environmental quality by reducing air pollution. However, quantile-based causality results reveal that investor attention significantly and heterogeneously affects financial and environmental variables across different market conditions. The findings of this study hold policy significance for improving environmental sustainability.
This study examines the meteorological conditions observed during direct heat-related mortality events across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Using the publicly available NOAA Storm Events Database, the research integrates long-term records of heat-related fatalities with ERA5-Land reanalysis to identify critical thresholds for seven heat-stress indicators: maximum and minimum dry-bulb temperature, universal thermal comfort index (UTCI), wet-bulb temperature (WBT), wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), heat index, and apparent temperature. Analysis of 5465 confirmed deaths (1996-2024) shows that one-quarter occurred when the heat index remained below 338C well beneath the benchmarks that commonly trigger U.S. heat alerts. Outside the arid Southwest, wet-bulb-based metrics (WBT, WBGT) exhibited the lowest within-group variability, whereas maximum dry-bulb temperature was most consistent in the Southwest. Thresholds for children under 10 years old were lower for every metric except WBT. Regions accustomed to extreme heat displayed lower variability among heat-related fatality cases in raw temperature, while cooler regions showed greater consistency among cases in temperature anomalies or rapid cold-to-hot transitions. These findings underscore the need for region-specific heat alert thresholds to better protect vulnerable populations, particularly young children and socially disadvantaged communities. Such adjustments to issuance of heat alerts, such as refining local thresholds and selecting the most stable metric for each region, may help heat-warning systems better reflect observed risk; however, epidemiological studies with complete, individual-level exposure data are necessary to confirm these findings.
This study examined nurses' awareness of climate change anxiety and reducing their ecological footprint. The study was conducted at an educational research hospital in the central Black Sea region. A total of 276 nurses participated in the study. Data were collected using the personal information form, climate change anxiety scale, and awareness scale for reducing the ecological footprint. In the study, data were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test, independent samples t test, ANOVA, Dunn-Bonferroni, Tukey test, and Spearman correlation test. The results show that nurses' climate change anxiety levels are 17.29 +/- 6.20 and their awareness levels regarding reducing their ecological footprint are 99.01 +/- 12.52. Female nurses, nurses working in internal clinics, and nurses with knowledge about climate change have higher levels of climate change anxiety (p G 0.05). Nurses aged 45 and over, female nurses, and nurses with 16 years or more of professional experience have higher total awareness scores regarding the reduction in their ecological footprint (p G 0.05). When examining the relationship between individuals' energy, cognitive disorders, and climate change anxiety, a low, positive, and significant relationship was found (r = 0.204, p = 0.001; r = 0.189, p = 0.002). There is a low and significant relationship between awareness of reducing the ecological footprint and climate change anxiety (R = 0.197, R2 = 0.035, p = 0.000). These results reveal the impact of nurses' sociodemographic characteristics on climate change anxiety and awareness of reducing their ecological footprint; they show that as anxiety about climate change increases, so does awareness of reducing one's ecological footprint. It may be advisable to design interventions that take climate change concerns into account and aim to reduce the ecological footprint.
Though flood forecasting has improved over the past decades, flooding impacts are still significant for many flood-prone areas. Challenges in communicating risk relate to dissemination and understanding of the flood forecast information. While the National Weather Service (NWS) is a trusted source of this information, the range of cultural and social dynamics, economic resources, and communication capacities communities have can affect the value of NWS products. To identify what methods and information are needed to communicate across a spectrum of users, this study centered on the needs for flood forecast information and identified barriers and opportunities that exist for improving communication of flood forecasts for a range of audiences to broaden understanding. Using a mixed-methods social science approach involving community data to assess vulnerabilities, partnerships with local community-based organizations, interviews, focus groups, and surveys, this study explored which forecast products communities rely upon, what information gaps exist, and what barriers prevent access and understanding of critical information. Findings help with understanding the range of flood information needs; how users prefer to receive information; and how existing flood forecast products help with decision-making. While each community had distinct flooding situations and needs, findings relate to the need for education, localized information such as place names in products, clear and consistent communication of impacts and actions, and improved accessibility accounting for a range of information channels [e.g., both television (TV) and social media]. These common findings are broadly applicable for the spectrum of flood situations and communities found across the United States. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Flood-prone communities often have significant barriers to accessing, understanding, and using flood forecast products to inform their decisions. Understanding these communities' vulnerabilities and challenges can improve flood risk communication. This social science research study involved a range of approaches including focus groups and surveys to explore which forecast products communities rely upon, what information gaps exist, and what barriers prevent access and understanding. Findings relate to needs for education, localized information so users know if the forecast covers them, clear and consistent communication of impacts and actions, and improved accessibility accounting for a range of information channels. Importantly, knowing the populations in the communities served and the barriers they face is a critical need for which there is no shortcut.
To foster public engagement with long-term climate targets such as China's "dual carbon" goals, this study applies construal level theory (CLT) to examine how different elements of media message framing jointly shape low-carbon behavioral intentions. Using a mixed-methods design, we first conducted a content analysis of 292 mainstream news reports, which revealed frequent combinations of mixed highand low-level construal cues in current media coverage. Building on these patterns, a 2 (positive vs negative frame) x 2 (value-vs measure-oriented frame) online experiment (N = 448) tested the conditional persuasive effects of internally consistent versus mixed construal framing. Results suggest a modest but statistically reliable construal-level matching effect (rf2 = 0.038), such that congruent frame combinations were associated with higher low-carbon intentions than mismatched combinations. Notably, baseline environmental involvement explained a substantially larger portion of the variance (rf2 = 0.346). This interaction was further moderated by perceived temporal distance, with highlevel construal frames performing better for individuals perceiving the goal as distant and low-level construal frames performing better for those perceiving it as closer. Mediation analyses revealed an asymmetric emotional mechanism: While anxiety successfully mediated the effect of low-level construal matching, the hypothesized mediating role of hope for high-construal matching was notably absent. Overall, these findings provide preliminary evidence that internally coherent construal framing may incrementally enhance climate communication effectiveness, while highlighting the greater role of individual engagement and psychological distance in shaping proenvironmental intentions.
Rapid climate shifts and rising global temperatures underscore the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study empirically examines the relationship between climate legislation and green development across countries globally from 2000 to 2021. It further investigates the moderating roles of international environmental engagement and government readiness. The findings confirm that climate legislation positively affects green development. Moreover, international environmental engagement and government readiness favorably moderate the relationship between climate legislation and green development. In regions with a higher level of green development, the impact of climate legislation on enhancing green development is more pronounced. Regarding heterogeneity, the effect of climate legislation on green development is notably positive in nonemerging countries but not significant in emerging countries. The research concludes with a range of policy recommendations based on these findings.
The causal attribution of extreme events poses a communicative challenge in connecting global climate change and local vulnerabilities. Alongside improved insights into climate models and sensitivities, enhanced understanding is needed of the social and discursive dynamics that shape the attribution of responsibility in extreme events and disasters. This article examines how responsibilities are attributed in the public debate on the 2017 Pedrogao Grande fire disaster, considered the worst disaster in Portugal's recent history. It presents two studies that focus on the social media debate between 2017 and 2023. Study 1, examining N = 512 Facebook posts, offers a descriptive overview of the networked public debate, identifying the main patterns. Study 2, analyzing a subset of N = 176 posts that involve conflict and criticism, focuses on the distribution of responsibilities to various causal factors and explores how the relationships between climate change and local vulnerabilities were articulated. The results of study 1 indicate that blame was attributed predominantly to national authorities and politicians, with only a few explicit references to climate change. However, study 2 reveals a more nuanced concatenation of various causes and responsibilities where global and structural issues are connected to concrete actions and responsibilities. Therefore, it is concluded that, in the communication of extreme events and disasters, attention should be paid not only to the number or share of the causes mentioned but also to the storylines and discourses that connect those causes and responsibilities.
Crowdsourcing is already being used in numerous fields of application. This study is dedicated to the question of the extent to which crowdsourcing activities are already contributing to climate protection, which fields of action are still open, and which future priorities and developments are required for a successful climate protection strategy. To this end, the four categories of citizen science, crowd creation, crowdfunding, and crowd innovation are analyzed in more detail. To fully utilize the potential of crowdsourcing to solve the climate crisis, individual activities must not only be scaled up further but also synergies and networks between them must be developed, too. This is also linked to the inherent crowd-sourcing effects of acceptance and participation, which should have a supportive effect on the implementation of climate protection measures. Guidelines for this future direction in the area of crowdsourcing can be developed by creating scenarios as part of citizen science projects. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: This study examines crowdsourcing activities to mitigate climate change to identify promising starting points and future needs. A need for action was identified with regard to scaling, synergies, and networking. Scenarios are to be developed as guidelines for climate protection as part of citizen science projects. Crowd-sourcing activities can prove to be important social tipping points for successfully implementing climate protection.
Previous studies primarily examine the overall effect of environmental literacy on green consumption behavior, but they do not address differences between urban and rural areas. This study investigates urban-rural differences in the effect of environmental literacy on green consumption behavior in China. Using data from 1358 urban residents and 1151 rural residents, we apply the ordered logit regression (ologit) model to estimate the effects of three subdimensions of environmental literacy, namely, environmental knowledge, environmental concern, and environmental participation willingness, on green consumption behavior. The results show that all subdimensions of environmental literacy are positively correlated with green consumption behavior, with clear urban-rural differences. Environmental knowledge has a stronger effect on rural residents, while environmental participation willingness has a greater influence on urban residents. These findings support differentiated policies that emphasize environmental knowledge popularization in rural areas and provide diverse environmental engagement opportunities for urban residents. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: This study makes three main contributions. First, it expands the theoretical framework of environmental literacy by categorizing it into three dimensions based on cognitive, affective, and behavioral perspectives. Second, it adds empirical evidence by revealing urban-rural differences in the effect of environmental literacy on green consumption behavior. Third, it provides data to support differentiated policies that promote broader green consumption behavior.
There is limited understanding of the factors that motivate people to take protective action to safeguard water infrastructure during extreme cold weather. Guided by protection motivation theory (PMT) and using a survey deployed in a major city in the United States (N 5 343) that is predominately Hispanic (people with origins from Mexico and often Spanish speaking), we found cognitive, demographic, and experiential factors explained 42% of the variance in protective action taking. Significant predictors included people's perceptions of the probability of extreme cold weather (e.g., ice storm, prolonged subfreezing temperatures), their belief that taking the recommended actions (response efficacy) will prevent damage such as a pipe bursting or loss of water, their prior experience with damage, and the language they speak (Spanish vs English). Water utilities, often tasked with communicating this type of preparedness information, can use these factors to craft messages that motivate protective actions before or during an extreme cold weather event. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: This study finds that focusing on traditional race/ethnicity social vulnerability indicators may not provide the full picture of vulnerability when trying to reach populations vulnerable to cold winter weather. Providing messages about preparing for cold weather in commonly spoken languages (Spanish in this study) improves people's protective action taking. Water utilities can deliver more effective outreach by explaining how to protect pipes and emphasizing that these simple steps can spare residents from avoidable damage.
