The present study develops a theoretical analytical framework for the purpose of systematically evaluating the coupling relationship between urbanisation and food system resilience in China’s major grain-producing regions. The framework draws on the theories of complex adaptive systems and of socio-ecological system resilience, and uses a “Pressure-State-Response-Evolution” approach. The findings reveal that during the period 2013–2022, both the urbanisation and the resilience of food system of China’s primary grain-producing regions followed notable upward trends, despite substantial spatiotemporal variations across provinces. Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu exhibit relatively high coupling coordination levels, while provinces such as Jilin and Anhui show lower levels of coupling coordination. The analysis further shows that the ecological, industrial, and demographic dimensions of urbanisation exert the greatest influence on food system resilience. The primary determinants of food system resilience are the following attributes: industrial development, employment rate, human capital, land urbanisation, and population size.
China implements farmland protection to curb the widening gap between food supply and demand. However, related land-use regulations have raised concerns about slower income growth and wider inequality. Here, we estimated panel regression models to examine how China’s Permanent Basic Farmland (PBF) policy, a representative farmland protection policy in China, was associated with residents’ income and urban–rural income inequality in the case of the Yangtze River Delta. The results indicated that a higher PBF ratio, which reflected land-development constraints, was linked to slower income growth, with standardized coefficients of -0.183 and -0.159 for rural and urban residents, respectively. Greater PBF fragmentation also showed negative links to rural income growth, with a standardized coefficient of -0.245, and to wider urban–rural income inequality. Yet, higher PBF investment as a form of agricultural support did not exhibit the expected positive relationship with income growth in the short term. These associations may have broader implications for food affordability and dietary diversity. Our findings can inform inclusive farmland protection policies, particularly the design of concrete compensation standards. We also offer a transferable lens for understanding the rationality and sustainability of farmland protection globally.
The increasing dependence of smallholder agriculture on fossil fuels not only constitutes an energy challenge but also a structural threat to domestic food security in world’s low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where a majority of the rural population still relies on small-scale agriculture for food and income, yet rapid urbanization has increased food and energy demand. Recurring geopolitical crises, such as the recent Strait of Hormuz crisis, expose one fundamental vulnerability of the food systems in the LMICs: their dependence on imported fossil fuels. Such a dependence leaves both agricultural production and food security vulnerable to energy supply and price shocks. In this Opinion article, we argue that these crises actually could open the ways to, and accelerate, a strategic transition toward renewable-energy-powered agri-food systems. Renewable energy offers proven pathways to enhance domestic food security. Success, however, requires coordinated actions from governments, NGOs, research institutions, and global development stakeholders guided by a systems view, translated in economic terms by comprehensive benefit–cost frameworks, which account for long-term public benefits (e.g. increased food-system resilience, reduced fossil fuel dependence, and environmental footprints), in addition to short-term private benefits.
Fish production has considerable potential to improve household food security in rural Ethiopia, yet robust empirical evidence on its effects and underlying mechanisms remains limited. This study examined the determinants of fish production, estimated its impact on household food security, and explored the pathways through which fish production influences food security in the Horo Guduru Wollega Zone of Ethiopia. Primary data were collected from 363 randomly selected households across three districts. A binary logistic regression model was used to identify the determinants of fish production, while Propensity Score Matching estimated its impact on household food security, measured by daily calorie intake per adult equivalent. District-level heterogeneity was examined using a Two-Stage Least Squares approach, and mediation analysis was used to identify the mechanisms linking fish production to food security. The results indicate that education level, family size, livestock holding, off or non-farm activity, distance from the nearest market, access to credit, and fishing management were significantly associated with household participation in fish production. Participation in fish production significantly improved household food security, with fish-producing households achieving higher daily calorie intake than comparable non fish-producing households. The positive effects were strongest in Choman district, indicating important spatial heterogeneity. Mediation analysis further showed that fish prices, nutritional knowledge, and fisheries governance significantly transmitted the positive effects of fish production to household food security. Overall, the findings demonstrate that fish production contributes to rural food security through improved food availability and income, nutrition-related knowledge, and institutional support. Strengthening access to rural credit, fisheries extension services, market infrastructure, and sustainable fisheries governance could enhance the contribution of fish production to food and nutrition security in rural Ethiopia.
Understanding the associations between climate variability and crop productivity is necessary to improve climate resilience and food security in rainfed agricultural systems. Soybean is one of the most important sources of edible oil and plant-based proteins in India today, where it now plays an important role in food security for the most populated country in the world, and where it is cultivated under rainfed conditions. This study investigates the climatic factors associated with soybean yield variability across the major soybean-producing states of India: Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan. District-level soybean yield data were analysed using a multiple-step analytical framework, combining correlation analysis, stepwise regression, panel fixed-effects regression, elasticity estimation, and attribution analysis. A combination of monthly and seasonal weather variables, extreme weather indices, and large scale ocean-atmospheric indices were used to identify the main climatic variables associated with soybean yield variability. Correlation analysis enabled detecting significant associations of heat stress, rainfall distribution, and ENSO variability with soybean yield. District-level regression models across the 67 districts considered in the study accounted for a substantial fraction of yield variability, however in variable proportions (R2 = 0.20 to 0.78), indicating spatially heterogeneous climate-yield relationships. The analysis further suggested that soybean yield is strongly associated with (1) dry spells, rainfall variability, and heat stress in the early development stage; (2) rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and heat waves in the vegetative to flowering stages; and (3) temperature extremes in the reproductive stage. Attribution analysis indicated that climatic variability offsets a fraction of the yield gains that would otherwise be generated by technological improvements, although improved varieties and crop management practices contributed positively to soybean productivity. These findings highlight the importance of region- and crop stage-specific climate risk assessment and management to improve the resilience of soybean production under increasing climate variability, thereby supporting food security through enhanced production, improved protein availability, and greater production stability. The analytical framework used here has broader value for application to different crops and regions of the world.
