Abstract Whether risk aversion is time-varying and countercyclical is central to modern asset pricing, yet evidence remains limited and is based mainly on experimental, survey, or aggregate stock market data. We provide individual-level evidence from 10 million Chinese auto insurance contracts from 2011 to 2017, estimating policyholders’ risk aversion from deductible choices. We find that risk aversion is time-varying and countercyclical. The estimates are negatively related to lottery and stock trading, positively related to insurance sales and bond trading, and vary with psychological factors, including seasonal mood, “zodiac year,” and calendar events.
We estimate the supply-side effects of climate change on firm sales by exploiting variation in local average temperature across suppliers of the same client. A 1°C increase in temperature leads to a 2.5% decline in annual sales. This effect is nonlinear, with stronger effects among suppliers in regions with the largest temperature increases and in cooler regions. Manufacturing and heat-sensitive industries are more affected, consistent with a reduction in labor productivity and labor supply when local temperatures rise. Nondiversified and financially constrained firms are also more affected, supporting the importance of operational and financial flexibility in adapting to climate change.
Using regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences designs to compare prices of California homes across a new wildfire risk zone boundary, I identify null effects in the immediate vicinity of the new risk zone boundary. In contrast, prices of homes newly assigned to a riskier zone drop by 5.7% further away from the new risk zone boundary. These findings suggest that households do not respond to the risk salience triggered by the new risk zone assignment. Instead, they update their risk beliefs in response to rezoning in a way that is consistent with the actual wildfire risk.
Abstract Over the past decade, hedge funds have increasingly embraced green investing. We develop a novel return-based measure of fund greenness and find that greener funds earn higher average returns, consistent with capturing a positive green premium, and are associated with lower risks, especially during adverse periods. We further show that performance gains are greatest among directional funds, whereas risk reduction is most pronounced among nondirectional funds. We also provide evidence that managers of these funds exhibit superior green investment skills through green stock selection and green factor timing. Finally, investors reward greener hedge funds only when they demonstrate strong performance.
Abstract Does distrust in politically affiliated media induce a bias in investor beliefs? We study the acquisition of Dow Jones & Co. by News Corporation in 2007 as a shock to the political affiliation of Dow Jones outlets. Following the acquisition, the prices of Republican- (Democrat-) aligned stocks become less sensitive to favorable (unfavorable) Dow Jones Newswires (DJNW) sentiment, consistent with the market attaching less credibility to a politically affiliated source. There is, however, no evidence of change in DJNW sentiment, coverage, or language about Republican/Democrat stocks, suggesting a loss of stock price informativeness. Consistent with this view, a portfolio exploiting the attenuated reaction to DJNW news earns abnormal returns following 2007.
