Electrification facilitates decarbonisation; however, its effectiveness depends on the way public policies shape demand-side technological substitution across end-use sectors. In Colombia, despite efforts to integrate renewable energy sources into the electricity mix, the energy transition remains constrained by insufficient policy coordination across transport, residential, tertiary, and industrial sectors, placing the country at risk of failing to meet its CO2 emissions reduction targets. While existing studies propose multiple transition pathways – largely focused on developed economies – demand-side dynamics and behavioural responses to policy-driven technological substitution remain marginal in analyses of developing countries. To examine these dynamics, a sectoral energy transition model for Colombia is developed using a system dynamics approach that captures feedback between public policy, consumer behaviour, and long-term energy demand. Results indicate that a transformation of the Colombian energy matrix by 2050 is achievable from the demand side, provided electrification policies prioritise transport, residential, and tertiary sectors. Residential electrification rises from 47% in 2024 to over 92% by 2050, while clean technologies exceed 80% of the transport fleet. Economy-wide electrification increases electricity demand by a factor of 3.5, requiring a 4.3-fold expansion of fully renewable electricity generation capacity.
Achieving India’s 2070 net-zero target will require rapid expansion of renewable electricity, with solar power expected to play a dominant role. However, the literature lacks an integrated framework that jointly examines electricity demand growth, land constraints, and critical mineral dependence. This study evaluates whether a solar-dominant electricity pathway for India remains viable when long-run demand growth is evaluated alongside land and critical mineral constraints. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with urbanisation as the long-run driver and GDP per capita as a short-run factor, electricity demand is projected to 2070 under Low, Base, and High scenarios. The results indicate that urbanisation acts as a strong structural driver of long-run electricity demand in India. These projections are translated into required solar capacity and evaluated against India’s available barren land and global silver reserves. The analysis show that higher demand scenarios push solar capacity into the multi-terawatt range, creating substantial pressure on both land availability and silver supply. Taken together, the findings reveal a land-mineral paradox in which attempts to reduce land use through higher-efficiency photovoltaic technologies may intensify dependence on critical minerals. The study underscores the importance of integrating demand moderation, spatial planning, and material-efficient technologies in solar transition strategies.
The electricity sector is a key sector in the full energy system and is therefore crucial to consider in the transformation into a fossil-free energy system. Several ancillary services (AS) which operate at short-term scales, i.e., seconds up to multiple minutes, are implemented by the grid operators to balance the electricity system. District heating technologies, such as heat pumps (HPs) and combined heat and power (CHP), could potentially provide AS for the electricity system, thus improving the cost-efficiency of future energy systems. A long-term modeling approach using the TIMES framework is used in this study to analyze how the Swedish energy system can develop cost-efficiently when demands for energy and AS shall be fulfilled in several developed cases. The results are compared to cases without AS. The results show that DH technologies can cost-efficiently provide AS, mainly for the slowest upwards service, mFRR+. DH HPs and biomass CHP plants cover over half of the mFRR+ demand in the winter in southern Sweden, highlighting DH’s potential as a flexible resource. The results further show that new investments in DH technologies are attributed to energy demands, not AS provision, thereby indicating that AS provision does not incentivize new investments into DH technologies.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is a key component of India’s transition towards a low-carbon energy system. However, the long-term reliability of PV generation is increasingly influenced by climatic and environmental variability. This study investigates the impacts of multi-decadal changes in solar irradiance, atmospheric aerosol loading, cloud cover, and surface temperature on PV performance across fifteen Indian states over the period 1990–2023. Satellite observations, reanalysis datasets, and national energy statistics were integrated with PV performance modelling to quantify historical losses. A state-level panel regression model was employed to estimate the sensitivity of PV yield to climatic drivers. Results reveal climate-induced performance reductions ranging from approximately 10% to 21%, with aerosols and rising temperatures emerging as dominant stressors. Future projections under CMIP6 climate scenarios indicate further yield reductions by mid-century, particularly under high-emission pathways. A composite vulnerability index identifies northern and urbanized states as highly exposed to climatic risks. The findings emphasize the importance of climate-responsive solar planning, adaptive technologies, and region-specific policy interventions to sustain long-term solar energy performance in India.
Reliable feedstock supply is critical to the feasibility of decentralised biogas-based energy systems, particularly in developing regions where municipal organic waste is largely unsegregated. This study evaluates how household waste segregation performance influences biogas-based electricity generation and energy system feasibility in Rejang Lebong Regency, Indonesia. A cross-sectional survey of 400 households was conducted to determine household waste segregation rates and behavioural conditions. Survey results were integrated into scenario-based techno-economic modelling to estimate recoverable organic waste, biogas production, electricity generation, and financial viability under three segregation scenarios: 38.5%, 60%, and 80%. Results show that improved segregation substantially increases recoverable organic waste and electricity generation and enhances financial feasibility. The model indicates a break-even segregation threshold of approximately 54%, while the 80% scenario provides greater financial feasibility. The findings demonstrate that household segregation performance is a critical determinant of decentralised renewable energy viability rather than merely an environmental behaviour. The study provides policy-relevant evidence for integrating household waste management improvements with decentralised energy planning in resource-constrained regions. Results should be interpreted in light of the planning-level engineering and economic assumptions adopted in the model.
