ABSTRACT In the last decade, one of the most substantial changes to firearm policy is the widespread adoption of permitless concealed carry laws. Since 2015, more than 20 states have adopted a permitless carry law. Permitless carry laws allow firearm owners to carry a concealed handgun in public without first obtaining a license and undergoing a background check. This article estimates the causal impact of permitless carry laws on crime using stacked event study estimators. I find that violent crime increases by 7% in the 12 months following the law's adoption, with increases beginning shortly after passage, or several months before the law formally takes effect. I find no evidence of offsetting deterrence in property crime. The rise in violence is driven by a 12% increase in aggravated assaults involving firearms. These effects are accompanied by a 22% decline in police enforcement of weapons law violations and modest increases in reports of stolen firearms.
We examine the causal effect of improvements in access to mental care providers on suicide rates in the United States. We track the universe of practice locations of psychiatric and psychological health care providers from 2016 to 2019. We construct a county-level index to measure proximity to these facilities, accounting for local variations in demand for and supply of mental health care services. To address the endogeneity between the location of these medical facilities in a given county, we use the implementation of prescriptive authority for psychologists () as an instrument. Our IV results show a 10% enhancement in access translates to an additional three providers per mile, resulting in a 3% reduction, equivalent to 1.6 fewer suicides per 100,000 population within a county.
We examine the effect of government subsidies for long-term care (LTC) on healthcare utilization and health outcomes in Korea, which exhibits one of the fastest rates of population aging. Using a regression discontinuity design, our intent-to-treat estimates indicate that eligibility for subsidized LTC services reduces out-of-pocket medical and prescription drug spending by about 20% and 16% of the baseline mean, respectively, and lowers the likelihood of inpatient hospital admission by about 12%. These reductions in healthcare utilization and expenditures are not associated with adverse health outcomes. In particular, eligibility reduces the likelihood of hospital admission due to fractures, which could be a possible channel for these results. Overall, our findings suggest that LTC subsidies can partially offset medical expenditures without negatively affecting the health outcomes of older adults.
Older adult opioid overdose deaths have increased over the past two decades in the United States. Methadone, one of three medications approved for opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment, was not covered by Medicare - the primary insurer of older Americans - for OUD until 2020. We study the response of opioid treatment programs (OTPs), the only healthcare providers that can dispense methadone for the treatment of OUD in the U.S., to this policy change using administrative data and a difference-in-differences framework. We find an increase in Medicare acceptance by OTPs and in the number of methadone treatment episodes post-policy. Further, we document spillovers to other insurance markets and changes in (non-methadone) treatment services offered by OTPs, suggesting that Medicare's entrance into this market has implications for all OUD patients receiving methadone treatment in OTPs.
Schools are increasingly adopting four-day school weeks to address financial, attendance, and teacher retention issues, a trend that the COVID-19 pandemic has amplified. However, little is known about the nonacademic behavioral responses of juveniles to such transitions. We examine the impacts of adopting a four-day school week on juvenile crime, focusing particularly on disparities across rurality and locale size, using a difference-in-differences estimation approach. We find significant upticks in juvenile crime, primarily in property and violent crimes, within non-rural and large law enforcement agencies. Conversely, we find evidence suggesting a decrease in juvenile drug- and alcohol-related crimes during school hours on weekdays. In addition to changes in juvenile crime on nonschool weekdays, we observe spillover effects on the remaining weekdays and weekends, primarily in non-rural and large agency settings. Thus, decision-makers should be cognizant of the potential increase in juvenile crime that may result from the four-day school week.
Poverty researchers focus on whether interventions relieve material hardships and the stresses of financial insecurity. Although these are essential outcomes, a narrow focus on them can limit the evaluation of policy effectiveness. Further, the predominant focus in the field on individual outcomes may miss how policy matters for family relationships. The present study takes a relational perspective and attends to positive policy outcomes such as joy. It uses the case of unconditional cash transfers to show the joys of mothering and the role of such policy interventions in these experiences. From the Baby's First Years study, we analyze interviews with 80 women, who were living below the poverty line at their child's birth; 65% identified as Black. We highlight how mothers use the cash transfer money to create opportunities for joy and bonding in their mutually rewarding relationships with their children. We show how financial resources serve purposes beyond meeting material needs and as human-capital investments. Financial resources are also conduits for relationship building and family flourishing, including through joy. To holistically assess policy impacts requires a comprehensive picture that allows scholars and policymakers to understand how government programs can help families not just survive but thrive.
This study examines the impact of residential water-efficiency standards on household water consumption, utilizing billing data from California. I examine both the short- and long-term impacts of the California Green Building Standards Code (CALGreen), comparing homes constructed just before and after its implementation in 2010. The findings show that, on average, CALGreen homes use 11.7% less water than comparable pre-code homes, with savings persisting over time at approximately 10.9%. Notably, engineering-based (ex ante) estimates of water savings are nearly twice as large as the realized reductions, likely reflecting the "offsetting behavior" effect. The analysis further reveals that most water savings occur during warmer months when outdoor water use peaks. In addition, CALGreen homes exhibit lower sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, with smaller increases in use during hotter months and smaller reductions during cooler months. Finally, when accounting for compliance costs and the opportunity cost of water, the results suggest that CALGreen policy passes a cost-effectiveness test. These findings highlight the effectiveness of building codes as a durable policy tool for achieving long-term water conservation in fast-growing, semi-arid regions.
In their early years, schools of public policy focused on federal policies and programs, as did APPAM and its journal, the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. While this federal bias has diminished over time, it hasn't entirely gone away. This essay makes the case for more attention to local government policies and programs. It argues that studying local government policies and management can deliver unique value. First local governments perform essential, and salient functions that shape people's views of government performance. Second, local governments offer substantial variation in policy design, implementation, and context that researchers can study and from which they can draw lessons. Third, there is considerable demand from local governments for policy and management research, as they typically lack the resources to do much themselves. Fourth, research on local governments arguably has a better chance of influencing actual decision making. Finally, local governments offer uniquely rich administrative data that can provide insights on long-run impacts, heterogeneity, and spillovers.
Can crime be deterred at low cost? We report the results of a randomized experiment of a messaging intervention designed to deter offending among individuals under parole supervision with a prior violent felony conviction or firearm arrest. The intervention consisted of a group meeting in which high-risk paroled individuals were notified of the sanction they would face upon reoffending while being offered community resources to support re-integration into the community. The program did not lead to a notable reduction in future arrests or create community spillover effects but did reduce parole violations by 15%. Potential mechanisms and implications for similar programs are discussed.
We explore the fundamental question of selection in Medicare Advantage by exploiting quasi-experimental variation from the Initial Enrollment Period for Medicare eligibility to evaluate and describe participation in Medicare Advantage. Using administrative claims data between 2007 and 2017, we investigate the transition from commercial insurance to Medicare Advantage for a comprehensive subset of commercially insured enrollees. We use the sharp cutoff at age 65 in one of the largest commercial and Medicare Advantage databases in the United States to implement a "positive correlation" test. Our findings using baseline characteristics at age 64 reveal that enrollees in Medicare Advantage are advantageously selected on multiple measures of health status such as Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores, out-of-pocket costs, utilization, while differentially selected on demographic characteristics. Furthermore, using predicted Medicare Advantage utilization based on observable characteristics, we find even stronger evidence of advantageous selection, suggesting that observable characteristics at age 64 systematically predict which enrollees would benefit most from Medicare Advantage's features, indicating forward-looking selection behavior.
Governments worldwide are increasingly applying management principles to policing, including performance management systems and financial incentives. We study whether eligibility for performance-based bonuses tied to crime reduction improves police outcomes. Using a quasi-experimental design and administrative data from Brazil, we evaluate an incentive-based compensation program that conditioned bonuses on reductions in violent deaths, vehicle robberies, and street robberies. Our results show that police districts eligible for bonuses experienced significant reductions in both targeted and nontargeted crimes, with stronger effects at the end of semester when incentives are steeper. While there is some evidence of gaming in the reclassification of street robberies, this behavior does not undermine the program's overall effectiveness. Overall, our findings highlight the potential of financial incentives to reshape police behavior and reduce crime.
Can reducing administrative burdens increase the take-up of social benefits? This meta-analysis reviews 51 field experimental studies reporting 187 treatment effect sizes. Using the administrative burden framework to compare interventions, I reclassify each intervention by the stage it measures on (application vs. final receipt) and whether it reduces the learning demands by providing information or the compliance demands by providing assistance. The results indicate that it is significantly easier to increase application rates than actual take-up rates. On average, estimated treatment effects are about twice as large when outcomes are measured at the application stage as when they are measured on final benefit receipt. The most effective interventions are the ones reducing compliance demands, as these are estimated to increase actual take-up by 8.31 percentage points on average. Interventions reducing learning demands are estimated to increase actual take-up by 3.39 percentage points on average. These findings consolidate the field experimental evidence on how to improve take-up rates and highlight the need for further research on application stages, treatment compliance, and variation across welfare regimes.
Recruiting teachers via “grow-your-own” (GYO) programs is a popular, yet rarely evaluated, strategy for addressing local workforce shortages and ensuring that incoming teachers resemble, understand, and have strong connections to their communities. We provide novel evidence on the impacts of one such GYO program by exploiting the staggered rollout of the Teacher Academy of Maryland (TAM) Career and Technical Education (CTE) program across public high schools. Exposed students were more likely to become teachers a decade later by 0.6 percentage points (pp), or 45%. Effects were concentrated among White girls (1.4pp/39%) and Black girls (0.7pp/82%), though boys benefitted too (0.2pp/59%). Although White girls induced by the program to become teachers often did so in the same district they attended as students (0.9pp/43%)—a key goal of GYO and localized teacher recruitment programs—this was less common for Black girls. Rather, Black girls induced by the program to become teachers did so in districts with more Black teachers than their home district (0.4pp/143%) and in districts with higher starting salaries (0.5pp/239%). Access to the program also increased wages (5% on average/18% for Black girls), challenging the narrative that such programs cause students to forego more lucrative professions.
Researchers and policymakers assert competing behavioral models of polluters. One model portrays polluters as best approximated by the perfectly informed, rational actor from economics textbooks. Another model portrays polluters, particularly small and medium facilities, as imperfectly informed, cognitively bounded, pro-social actors. If this second model is more accurate, environmental programs that offer low-cost technical assistance may be especially effective in promoting regulatory compliance. Yet the empirical evidence for the effectiveness of such compliance assistance is scant. In a pre-registered analysis using panel data research designs, we exploit idiosyncratic program roll-out to estimate the effects of a compliance assistance program that was delivered to hundreds of Ohio water polluters. Although the program was initially deemed a success by federal and state environmental protection agencies, we estimate that, if the program had any effect on polluter behaviors, those effects were small. In our preferred specification, we estimate a precise zero effect of compliance assistance on environmental compliance and pollution. The lack of evidence for behavioral impacts from compliance assistance does not imply such programs cannot be effective, but it does underscore the need for more deliberate evaluation designs when state and federal agencies roll out their compliance assistance interventions.
This paper examines the effect of granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses on fatal crashes. Using county-level crash data from the Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, I leverage the quasi-randomness of the timing of the driver's license reforms adoption across states to identify the causal effect of driver's license reforms. My findings show that granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses increases overall fatal crashes by nearly 5%, equivalent to 0.46 more fatal crashes in a county per year. The effect is stronger in states with a higher population of undocumented immigrants. By investigating the mechanism through which the policy impact is likely to occur, I show that undocumented immigrants may be more likely to engage in risky driving behavior once they obtain driver's licenses. Several robustness checks and placebo tests support my main findings.
We study how prices respond when a 25% gross receipts tax remitted by cannabis manufacturers was eliminated in Washington state and the retail excise tax was simultaneously increased from 25% to 37%. Standard theory suggests that this change should have increased welfare for manufacturers, retailers, and consumers; instead, our analysis shows that the reform unexpectedly shifted benefits toward manufacturers at the expense of retailers and consumers, who faced higher tax-inclusive prices post-reform. We hypothesize that this outcome was driven by behavioral factors such as anchoring and loss aversion. Our findings add to a growing body of evidence that tax reforms can affect market outcomes in ways not predicted by standard economic models, offering a cautionary lesson for policymakers considering similar reforms.
Since 2012, DACA has provided deportation relief and work authorization to immigrants brought to the United States as children. This study examines how legal and political uncertainty-triggered by the Trump administration's 2017 rescission announcement-reshaped recipients' economic and social outcomes. Using difference-in-differences and event-study methods, we show that early gains in employment and earnings eroded sharply under heightened uncertainty. In contrast, responses along other margins-including health insurance coverage, schooling, and in-state mobility-proved more resilient and in some cases strengthened over time. Supportive environments, such as sanctuary and low-enforcement states, attenuate labor market losses and sustain investments in nonlabor outcomes. These findings highlight how policy uncertainty can erode labor market gains while shifting behavior toward protective and longer-horizon investments.
Improving education and labor market outcomes for low-income students is critical for advancing socioeconomic mobility in the United States. We use longitudinal data on five cohorts of ninth-grade students to explore how Massachusetts public high schools affect the longer term outcomes of students, with a special focus on students from low-income families. Using detailed administrative and student survey data, we estimate school value-added impacts on college outcomes and earnings. Observationally similar students who attend a school at the 80th percentile of the value-added distribution instead of a school at the 20th percentile are 11% more likely to enroll in college, are 31% more likely to graduate from a 4-year college, and earn 25% (or $10,500) more annually at age 30. On average, schools that improve students' longer run outcomes the most are those that improve their 10th-grade test scores and increase their college plans the most.
