Purpose This study investigates how manufacturer Machiavellianism influences distributor opportunism in business-to-business (B2B) marketing channels in China. It further examines how internal governance mechanisms and external environmental conditions shape this relationship. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on relational exchange theory and psychological reactance theory, this study conceptualizes manufacturer Machiavellianism as a manipulative strategic orientation that may provoke opportunistic responses from channel partners. Survey data were collected from 327 distributors in China, an important emerging market context. Hierarchical regression analysis was used to test the effects of manufacturer Machiavellianism on distributor opportunism and the moderating roles of relationship embeddedness, contract completeness, market uncertainty and industry competitive intensity. Findings The results show that manufacturer Machiavellianism significantly increases distributor opportunism. Relationship embeddedness mitigates this effect, highlighting the protective role of relational governance in emerging markets. In contrast, contract completeness, market uncertainty and industry competitive intensity strengthen the positive relationship between manufacturer Machiavellianism and distributor opportunism. These findings suggest that formal contracts may intensify opportunistic responses when distributors perceive manipulative intent, particularly under conditions of environmental uncertainty and competitive pressure. Originality/value This research introduces manufacturer Machiavellianism as a novel construct in channel governance research and offers new insights into how dark strategic orientations interact with governance mechanisms and environmental conditions to influence opportunistic behavior in emerging-market contexts.
Purpose Mitigating corporate greenwashing is critical for effective environmental governance. While prior literature emphasizes external institutional pressures, understanding internal human capital drivers of authentic sustainability remains crucial, especially in emerging markets with evolving regulations. Grounded in upper echelons theory, this study investigates how executives' environmental backgrounds (EEB) influence greenwashing, alongside the underlying internal mechanisms and contextual factors. Design/methodology/approach Utilizing an unbalanced panel of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2009 to 2023, this study employs multiple regression models to examine the impact of EEB on greenwashing. Mediation and moderation analyses are conducted to explore the underlying mechanisms and boundary conditions. Findings EEB significantly reduce greenwashing by alleviating financing constraints, stimulating green innovation, reducing information asymmetry and strengthening green cognition. This inhibitory effect is stronger in heavily polluting firms, non-state-owned enterprises and firms with more female executives. Furthermore, external monitoring – specifically stringent environmental regulations and media scrutiny – amplifies this mitigating effect. Originality/value Integrating upper echelons theory with environmental governance research, this study demonstrates that EEB are the crucial human capital factor curbing greenwashing. These findings deepen the understanding of authentic corporate sustainability's behavioral roots, offering practical implications for enhancing environmental accountability and governance.
Purpose This study examines whether environmental, social, and governance performance promotes firm green transformation in China's emerging economy context, and explains how ESG engagement moves beyond symbolic legitimacy toward organizational change. It conceptualizes green transformation as a dual process that combines green innovation with efficiency upgrading, thereby linking external sustainability pressures to firms’ internal innovation capabilities and productivity improvements. By focusing on Chinese A-share listed firms, the study aims to clarify the firm-level mechanisms through which ESG performance affects independently developed green technologies, collaborative green innovation, and total factor productivity, while identifying the organizational conditions that strengthen or weaken these effects. Design/methodology/approach The study uses an unbalanced panel of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2015 to 2024. Green transformation is measured through independently filed green patents, jointly filed green patents, and total factor productivity estimated using the Levinsohn–Petrin approach. Baseline fixed-effects models are employed to estimate the relationship between ESG performance and green transformation. To address selection bias and dynamic endogeneity, the analysis further applies propensity score matching combined with fixed effects and system GMM estimations. Robustness tests use alternative ESG ratings and alternative green transformation measures. Mechanism and heterogeneity analyses examine internal channels and conditional firm characteristics in greater empirical detail. Findings The results show that higher ESG performance significantly promotes all three dimensions of firm green transformation: independent green innovation, collaborative green innovation, and productivity upgrading. These findings remain robust across matching-based fixed-effects models, system GMM estimations, alternative ESG ratings, and alternative outcome measures. Mechanism tests reveal that ESG facilitates green transformation by expanding innovation human capital, improving internal control quality, and shaping firms’ financing conditions. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the positive effect of ESG is stronger among tech-intensive firms and small firms, suggesting that absorptive capacity and marginal legitimacy gains condition the effectiveness of ESG engagement in China’s institutional context. Originality/value This study offers value by reframing ESG as an internal transformation capability rather than a disclosure or legitimacy device. It advances ESG research by unpacking three firm-level transmission mechanisms—innovation human capital, internal control quality, and financing conditions—through which ESG supports green innovation and productivity upgrading. It also broadens green transformation measurement by combining independent green patents, joint green patents, and Levinsohn–Petrin total factor productivity. Focusing on Chinese A-share firms, the study provides context-sensitive evidence from an emerging economy and shows that ESG effects vary by technological intensity and firm size, offering implications for differentiated sustainability governance and investment.
Purpose Against the background of high-quality Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation, this study examines how the interaction between high-quality digital cooperation and high-quality innovation cooperation affects industrial chain integration between China and BRI partner countries. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on data for China and BRI partner countries from 2010 to 2023, this study constructs BRI industrial linkage networks based on multi-regional input-output data. The proposed hypotheses are tested through fixed-effects models, mediation analysis, and additional robustness checks. Findings The results show that high-quality digital cooperation and high-quality innovation cooperation are mutually reinforcing, and their interaction significantly promotes industrial chain integration between China and BRI partner countries. The strength and breadth of industrial linkage network ties play mediating roles. Heterogeneity tests further indicate that these effects are more pronounced for Asian BRI partner countries, relatively developed partner countries and medium- and high-technology manufacturing industries. Originality/value This paper enriches research on high-quality BRI cooperation in the digital economy era by integrating digital cooperation and innovation cooperation into a unified framework. It develops bilateral, multidimensional measures of high-quality digital and innovation cooperation and extends the research on BRI industrial chain from an industrial linkage network perspective.
Purpose Analyze how internationalization risks are perceived in the internationalization process for different service segments, such as hard services, soft services and professional service firms (PSFs). Design/methodology/approach This study uses a qualitative, exploratory approach guided by a multiple-case study strategy, involving 15 service firms from an emerging market. The processual analysis included initial categorization based on theoretical frameworks, cross-case comparisons and continuous reviews, aiming to identify emerging patterns and ensure credibility. Findings Soft services/PSFs and hard services use the virtual mode in their internationalization processes. While country risk was the most significant for soft services/PSFs, hard services highlighted both country risk and cultural risk. Despite the high cultural complexity, cultural risk was not considered prohibitive, unlike country risk, which posed greater obstacles. Research limitations/implications Participants were reluctant to discuss mistakes in commercial risk, unlike macro risks; and risk perception is subjective, making this qualitative, exploratory research nongeneralizable, especially the finding that soft services/PSFs do not face higher internationalization risks than hard services. Practical implications Provide insights for managers of service firms on how different types of risks are perceived and mitigated during internationalization, particularly in contexts shaped by digitalization and the growing adoption of virtual entry modes. Originality/value Identification of the virtual mode for pure service firms, such as soft services and PSFs, contradicting prior literature that emphasized greater physical presence for these services.
Purpose This study aims to examine the quantile-based time-frequency spillovers between African stock prices and global uncertainty indicators. Design/methodology/approach The study applies the quantile vector autoregressive connectedness framework to daily data (2012–2023) for nine African stock markets and global indicators – VIX, OVX, EPU, FCI and Twitter sentiment. This method captures time–frequency spillovers across quantiles, revealing short- and long-term directional shock transmission under varying market conditions. Findings The study finds medium-term overall spillovers, stronger in the short-term and during turbulent periods. Financial Conditions Index, VIX, and Egypt, Kenya and Mauritius markets act as net transmitters, while Twitter sentiment and other markets are net receivers. Uganda shows strong unidirectional spillover to Kenya. Research limitations/implications The study extends literature on emerging-market contagion, highlighting tail-specific and horizon-dependent spillovers. Practical implications Findings help investors optimize portfolios by identifying key transmitters – FCI, VIX and select African markets – for strategic hedging. Originality/value This study is the first to integrate African stock markets with global uncertainty, volatility and social-media sentiment using a quantile time–frequency connectedness framework. By capturing tail-specific and horizon-dependent spillovers, it provides a nuanced understanding of dynamic risk transmission, offering fresh insights for investors, regulators and policymakers.
Purpose This study aims to examine the short-run and long-run relationships between global uncertainty indicators, namely the Volatility Index, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk, gold prices and domestic macroeconomic variables on Islamic stock indices in Indonesia and Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly data from August 2017 to August 2025, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Error Correction Model framework. Structural break tests, diagnostic checks and robustness analyses are conducted to ensure model validity. Findings The results indicate cross-country heterogeneity. The Indonesian Islamic stock market is more strongly driven by domestic fundamentals, particularly exchange rate movements, while the Malaysian Islamic stock market is more sensitive to global uncertainty indicators and gold prices. Significant and negative error correction terms confirm rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium in both markets. Practical implications The study offers important implications for policymakers, investors and researchers. Policymakers can strengthen Islamic capital market resilience through targeted risk mitigation and sukuk market development, while investors may optimize portfolio strategies based on varying exposure to global uncertainty. Academically, the study advances the Islamic finance literature by providing a theoretically grounded and empirically robust analysis of uncertainty transmission in ASEAN Islamic stock markets. Originality/value These findings suggest that Islamic stock markets in ASEAN are neither fully insulated from nor fully integrated with global financial dynamics. Instead, they exhibit a pattern of selective integration, where sensitivity to global and domestic shocks depends on market structure and the degree of financial openness.
Purpose This study investigates the impact of deposit insurance on bank risk-taking and examines how Islamic banking architectures moderate this relationship in the MENA region's dual banking system. Design/methodology/approach We apply panel quantile regressions to an unbalanced dataset of 136 commercial banks across 9 MENA countries from 2011 to 2023. The empirical framework uses four distinct risk dimensions: SDROA, POR, a normalized Z-score and ROA. Findings Deposit insurance significantly reduces bank risk-taking, demonstrating that stabilization benefits dominate classical moral hazard in fragile regimes. This effect is highly asymmetric and concentrates heavily in high-risk tails. Through unique governance and contractual constraints, Islamic banking operations strengthen asset volatility reduction but weaken portfolio asset-shifting trends. Practical implications Regulators should implement differentiated deposit insurance schemes tailored specifically to the unique risk-sharing properties of Islamic contracts. Overhauling and strengthening Sharia governance frameworks provides a critical mechanism to optimize overall macro-financial stability. Originality/value This is the first empirical work to model the structural interaction between deposit insurance safety nets and Islamic corporate frameworks across an entire risk distribution using a quantile approach.
Purpose This study examines whether semantic alignment with a standardized definition and professional formation are associated with expert perceptions of the shadow economy’s size. It addresses a neglected measurement issue in perception-based shadow economy research: whether respondents who appear to answer the same question are in fact applying the same conceptual boundary. Design/methodology/approach The study uses original survey data from 87 experts in Azerbaijan drawn from academic, financial, managerial and other policy-relevant sectors (response rate: 55.4%). Guided by the semantic theory of survey response (STSR), the analysis compares subgroup means and dispersion and estimates clustered OLS models with robustness checks using alternative codings, log specifications, and ordered and interval-censored models. Findings Definitional alignment is consistently associated with higher perceived shadow economy estimates, and this association is stronger among academically trained respondents. In the baseline specification, academic affiliation and definitional alignment are associated with increases of about 7.4 and 6.8% points, respectively, relative to a sample mean of 31.35%. These are economically meaningful shifts. By contrast, evidence for variance convergence is mixed: subgroup dispersion differs, but variance estimates are imprecise and do not support a definitive convergence claim. Originality/value The study extends STSR to shadow economy measurement by showing that semantic alignment functions as a structured correlate of perception-based estimates rather than as random noise. It demonstrates that expert-based macroeconomic indicators may partly reflect conceptual coordination among respondents, making semantic structure an empirical and methodological issue in survey-based economic measurement.
Purpose This study aims to investigate the direct impact of emerging market multinational corporations' (EMNCs) parenting knowledge (technological and marketing) on the performance of their overseas subsidiaries, and how institutional distance and subsidiary age moderate these relationships. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on the knowledge-based view and institutional theory, we analyzed an unbalanced panel dataset of 331 Chinese listed manufacturing EMNCs and their 596 overseas subsidiaries using fixed-effects regression models. Findings The results reveal that EMNCs' technological and marketing knowledge significantly enhance subsidiary performance. Institutional distance (ID) negatively moderates these relationships, whereas subsidiary age (SA) exerts a positive moderating effect. Furthermore, SA effectively mitigates the adverse impact of ID on the relationship between technological knowledge and subsidiary performance, though this buffering effect does not extend to marketing knowledge. Originality/value By developing a contingency framework that clarifies the boundary conditions of EMNC parenting advantages, this study offers novel insights into how macro-level institutional frictions and micro-level subsidiary maturation interact to shape cross-border knowledge transfer effectiveness in developed host markets.
Purpose This paper provides a structured integrative review of the literature on bank-FinTech cooperation in the Asia-Pacific countries, organizing evidence across interaction modes and multi-actor configurations through which digital financial services are produced, distributed and governed in emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region.Design/methodology/approach We analyzed 204 peer-reviewed articles published between 2015 and 2024; using structured qualitative content coding and bibliometric mapping (co-citation and keyword; analysis). This combined approach identifies the main research streams and clarifies how prior studies conceptualize cooperation, risk, and institutional context.Findings The review identified three core research clusters: (1) the impact of bank-FinTech cooperation on bank performance, efficiency, and risk-taking, (2) regulatory arbitrage, shadow banking, and implications for prudential supervision and (3) organizational transformation and business-model reconfiguration within financial institutions. A distinctive finding is the centrality of Asia-Pacific evidence, particularly from China, which currently provides the primary empirical basis for claims regarding how FinTech integration affects incumbents' profitability, credit allocation and systemic risk in emerging financial systems. Overall, the evidence reveals a structural tension: bank-FinTech cooperation may improve efficiency and service innovation, but it may also shift risks outside the traditional regulatory perimeter, increase platform dependence and create new supervisory challenges.Practical implications The review helps bank managers assess cooperation modes not only in terms of innovation access and cost efficiency but also about data control, operational dependence and long-term competitive exposure. For regulators and policymakers, interdependencies among banks, FinTech firms, BigTech platforms must be monitored.Originality/value This study offers a structured integrative synthesis of fragmented research on bank - FinTech cooperation. Its novelty lies in connecting three bodies of evidence that are usually examined separately: performance and efficiency effects, regulatory arbitrage and risk migration, and organizational transformation. By interpreting these streams through an ecosystem perspective, this study clarifies how firm-level cooperation modes relate to broader issues of competition, financial stability, risk allocation and regulatory design. Targeted directions for comparative research across institutional contexts are also identified.
Purpose Amid escalating economic policy uncertainty (EPU), firms' innovation decisions are shaped by a fundamental conflict between efficiency logic and legitimacy logic. From an efficiency perspective, rising EPU increases uncertainty surrounding technological trajectories and innovation pathways, making firms more cautious about expanding substantive innovation investment. From a legitimacy perspective, however, innovation has become an increasingly salient social expectation, especially for high-tech firms. Under resource constraints and financing pressure, firms may therefore need to maintain an innovation-oriented posture to secure stakeholder support. Drawing on institutional decoupling theory, this study examines whether and how EPU reshapes the internal structure of firms' innovation behavior by inducing a decoupling between innovation disclosure and substantive innovation investment. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of Chinese listed high-tech firms from 2013 to 2023, this study empirically examines whether EPU increases innovation decoupling. It further investigates whether firms adjust the forward-looking orientation of innovation disclosures as a strategic communication and impression management response. In addition, the study examines the economic consequences of innovation decoupling, including its effects on innovation quality and capital market information efficiency, and explores the boundary conditions under which such decoupling is strengthened or constrained, including regulatory environments and firm characteristics. Findings The results show that EPU significantly increases firms' innovation narrative disclosure without a commensurate increase in substantive innovation investment, leading to a structural decoupling between innovation disclosure and innovation action. Firms further increase the proportion of forward-looking content in their innovation disclosures, suggesting that future-oriented narratives may help redirect stakeholder attention from current innovation input to future innovation potential. Analyses of the consequences show that innovation decoupling under EPU reduces innovation quality and increases analysts' forecast bias and dispersion. Finally, stronger regulatory inquiry, a more effective judicial environment, and greater media attention significantly constrain firms' reliance on innovation decoupling under EPU, whereas the effect is stronger among non-manufacturing and younger high-tech firms. Originality/value This study shifts the EPU–innovation literature from a focus on innovation levels to a focus on innovation structure. By distinguishing innovation disclosure from substantive innovation investment, it reveals how macro-level uncertainty can induce a structural imbalance in firms' innovation behavior. The study also extends research on forward-looking disclosure by highlighting its strategic communication and impression management functions in an innovation decoupling context, and provides evidence on the innovation and capital market consequences of such decoupling.
Purpose Building strong customer relationships is central to relationship marketing, particularly in dual retail banking markets. Drawing on relationship marketing and signalling theory, this study examines how customer-based corporate reputation, Islamic banking literacy and religiosity predict customer commitment and loyalty among Islamic banking customers in a dual banking environment. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected through a survey of 289 Islamic banking customers in Indonesia, comprising customers who bank solely with Islamic banks and those who simultaneously maintain accounts with conventional retail banks. Structural equation modelling was employed to test the proposed conceptual model. Findings Findings show that customer-based corporate reputation and Islamic banking literacy positively predict both customer commitment and customer loyalty. Religiosity positively predicts customer commitment, which in turn significantly enhances customer loyalty. Customer-based corporate reputation and Islamic banking literacy emerge as comparatively stronger predictors of commitment than religiosity, while commitment represents the strongest predictor of loyalty. The findings further indicate that religious value alignment retains relevance even within dual banking contexts characterised by non-exclusive customer relationships. Originality/value The study extends relationship marketing research in retail banking by examining dual banking markets where customers concurrently manage relationships with competing institutions. Integrating signalling theory and consumer knowledge perspectives, it conceptualises customer-based corporate reputation as a credibility signal, Islamic banking literacy as an interpretive capability and religiosity as a value-alignment antecedent. Beyond managerial relevance, the findings carry implications for policymakers and regulators seeking to strengthen financial inclusion, promote ethical banking conduct and enhance banking literacy as a tool for societal well-being in emerging markets.
Purpose This study examines the strategic role of cash holding in the relationship between global uncertainty and corporate investment in emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach This study employs a two-step system GMM model to examine dynamic relationships. The sample consists of 20,020 non-financial firms across 23 emerging countries from 2004 to 2023. Additionally, to enhance the robustness and implications of the results, sectoral and sub-sample analyses based on firm-specific characteristics performed. Findings The maintenance of cash reserves positively influences corporate investment during periods of uncertainty. Ample cash holdings mitigate risk and enhance opportunistic investments in cyclical sectors, which are highly sensitive to market volatility and economic downturns. Conversely, defensive sectors experience less impact from uncertainty; however, elevated cash reserves within these sectors can impede opportunistic investments during such times. Larger firms with significant liquidity are generally less susceptible to global uncertainties, particularly in emerging markets. Originality/value The study explores the emerging markets over 2 decades, covering the two prominent economic downturns that have majorly impacted corporate decisions. It highlights the critical role of cash in navigating the global shocks and facilitating investment during economic declines. Sectoral and sub-sample analyses provide crucial insights for investors to assess the company’s risk profile.
Purpose Rising climate risks in emerging economies challenge the effectiveness of trade and financial mechanisms in supporting green transformation. This study examines how green finance mediates the relationship between green trade and ecological sustainability. Design/methodology/approach Utilizing panel data from 2000 to 2022 for Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies and grounded in ecological modernization theory, the analysis applies high-dimensional fixed effects as the baseline estimator. Robustness is confirmed through alternative model specifications, while endogeneity and selection bias are addressed using a two-step system generalized method of moments and propensity score matching. Findings The empirical findings reveal that green trade reduces ecological footprints, which indicates that promoting green trade can accelerate the adoption of clean technologies and resource-efficient production in emerging economies. Moreover, green finance mediates and strengthens the ecological benefits of green trade, suggesting that well-structured green financial systems enhance the capacity of trade to drive ecological sustainability and support low-carbon development pathways. The results remain robust after accounting for endogeneity and selection bias. Practical implications The evidence highlights the importance of integrating green trade policies with effective green financial frameworks to accelerate ecological sustainability and support sustainable low-carbon development in emerging economies. Originality/value This research contributes to the literature by bridging the gap in understanding the ecological impacts of trade in emerging economies. It demonstrates that green trade supports ecological sustainability while green finance acts as a critical channel that strengthens and scales the environmental benefits of trade.
PurposeThis study develops a unified empirical framework to identify, characterize, and validate speculative (exuberant) episodes in the Romanian equity market, contributing to the growing literature on bubble dynamics in emerging markets. It aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of whether speculative behavior is persistent or episodic and to evaluate its implications for financial stability.Design/methodology/approachUsing ten years of daily data for the six major Bucharest Stock Exchange indices, the study combines recursive right-tailed ADF tests, the nonlinear log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) model and a Markov-switching autoregressive specification. This multi-model approach enables the detection, timing and validation of exuberant episodes from complementary econometric perspectives.FindingsThe results reveal recurrent but non-persistent bubbles, with three major waves (2017-2018, 2019-2020 and 2023-2024) associated with global liquidity conditions, pandemic-related uncertainty and post-crisis recovery. Broad and total-return indices exhibit stronger and more persistent signals, while sectoral indices show shorter episodes. Speculative phases are episodic, synchronized in 2023-2024 and rapidly self-correcting, indicating systemic but contained dynamics without prolonged instability.Originality/valueFirst, we depart from prior research by redirecting analytical attention from individual firms to the broader market, providing a genuinely aggregate perspective on speculative dynamics. Second, we offer the first systematic examination of bubble behavior across all major Romanian equity indices, allowing for a macro-level assessment of the structure, timing and persistence of exuberant episodes. Third, our contribution is reinforced by an exclusive and rigorous focus on bubble identification and verification, employing a comprehensive set of econometric procedures designed to enhance methodological reliability and cross-study comparability. Finally, our manuscript contributes to the literature by extending the scope of comparative bubble diagnostics beyond the standard pairing of an ADF-type measure and the LPPLS framework.
Purpose This study aims to investigate the environmental consequences of non-renewable energy consumption in the context of rapid industrialisation and urban expansion in the Next Eleven (N-11) emerging economies, focusing on the carbonisation threat posed by various fossil-based energy sources. Design/methodology/approach Non-renewable energy sources (coal, petroleum, natural gas and nuclear) are disaggregated for analysis over the period 1993-2022. A composite energy index was constructed using principal component analysis to quantify systemic environmental impacts. The feasible generalized least squares method and method of moments quantile regression (MMQR) were applied to capture both average and distributional effects. To address endogeneity, we explicitly employed both instrumental variable estimation and dynamic panel generalized method of moments as complementary strategies. Findings All non-renewable sources were found to significantly increase environmental emissions, with petroleum emerging as the most harmful due to its role in transportation. The composite index confirms the aggregate detrimental impact. MMQR reveals heterogeneity in emissions responses across quantiles. Practical implications The findings highlight the urgent need for N-11 countries to transition toward renewable energy sources, enhance energy efficiency and implement supportive policy reforms that can mitigate emissions and promote sustainable growth. Originality/value This study provides a novel empirical approach by integrating PCA-based composite indexing with quantile regression techniques, offering fresh insights into the differentiated environmental effects of unclean energy and the policy urgency of clean energy adoption in emerging economies.
Purpose Decentralized environmental governance is often undermined by local officials prioritizing short-term growth. Leveraging China's Natural Resources Accountability Audit (NRAA) as a natural experiment, this study investigates whether retrospective green accountability audits can act as a political screening mechanism to shape the market entry of pollution-intensive enterprises. Design/methodology/approach We develop a theoretical model of pollution enterprise entry that incorporates strategic local government behavior and then proceed with an empirical analysis using data from Chinese cities. Findings The NRAA creates a formidable entry barrier, reducing the influx of polluting enterprises by 22.2%. This deterrence is driven by a profound realignment of bureaucratic behavior toward stricter environmental enforcement and increased ecological expenditures. Efficacy is amplified when leaders face strong promotion incentives, low fiscal pressure, and robust state capacity. Crucially, while optimizing local market structures, localized accountability inadvertently triggers a spatial spillover, displacing polluting capital to neighboring, less regulated regions. Research limitations/implications By demonstrating how green accountability aligns political incentives with sustainability goals, this study offers new insights into fulfilling environmental commitments under centrally planned governance frameworks in emerging economies. Originality/value This study presents a novel micro-firm perspective on China's NRAA, distinct from existing macro-focused research. It develops a formal model integrating bureaucratic incentives into enterprise entry frameworks, identifies key mechanisms and boundary conditions, and offers generalizable lessons for emerging economies navigating growth-environment trade-offs.
Purpose This study leverages Russia’s highly sanctioned environment as an extreme empirical setting to examine how severe external constraints shape the adaptation strategies of high-tech firms. In particular, the study focuses on the underexplored relationship between owner-CEOs’ personal characteristics and firm-level strategic decisions. Design/methodology/approach A multiple case study methodology was employed to explore the impact of sanctions on business strategy. Data on seven Russian high-tech firms and their owner-CEOs were collected from multiple sources, including interviews, social media posts and statistical data, and analyzed using thematic analysis. Findings The analysis reveals that the relationship between an owner-CEO’s identity and the firm’s business strategy is influenced by executive characteristics. Owner-CEO’s willingness to take risks serves as a key mechanism, while prior crisis experience conditions how owner-CEO’s identity is expressed in strategic choice. Originality/value This study offers original insights by unveiling the specific mechanisms that connect owner-CEO identity to strategic adaptation under extreme conditions. The study extends the upper echelons theory to the context of severe sanctions, demonstrating how executive characteristics filter external shocks, and refines the organizational adaptation lens by uncovering the micro-foundations of strategic choice in high-threat environments. The study discusses how the specified boundary conditions are likely to vary across country contexts, offering practical value for executives and policymakers in sanctioned economies navigating similar challenges.
Purpose - This study aims to enhance the forecasting of sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads in the MENA region by developing a hybrid model that integrates deep learning algorithms with a structural term structure framework. Accurate CDS forecasting is critical for managing sovereign credit risk, especially in politically and economically unstable environments. Design/methodology/approach - The paper proposes a hybrid forecasting framework combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) deep learning models with the Nelson-Siegel term structure model. The framework is tested on daily CDS data for seven MENA countries (2015-2024), incorporating macro-financial variables such as the S&P/Hawkamah ESG Pan Arab Index, US 10-Year Bond Yield, LBMA Gold Price, and OPEC Basket Price. The models are evaluated using RMSE, MSE, R 2, and SHAP interpretability tools. Findings - Empirical results show that hybrid models, particularly the GRU-Nelson-Siegel variant, significantly outperform standalone LSTM and GRU models in predictive accuracy, especially during high-volatility episodes in Iraq, Egypt, and Tunisia. The inclusion of macro-financial indicators improves the model's responsiveness to market shocks, enhancing forecasting reliability and robustness under uncertain conditions. Originality/value - This research contributes to the financial risk modeling literature by demonstrating the superiority of hybrid deep learning-econometric models in forecasting sovereign credit risk in emerging markets. The study offers a practical and interpretable approach to risk assessment, supporting more informed decision-making for investors, policymakers, and credit analysts operating in volatile geopolitical environments. Furthermore, the practical implications of this study are particularly relevant for policymakers and financial institutions in emerging markets. The hybrid deep learning-Nelson-Siegel framework enhances the early identification of sovereign risk deterioration, supporting proactive debt management and crisis prevention. By providing more accurate and timely forecasts of CDS spreads, the model can help central banks and regulatory authorities implement data-driven policies to strengthen financial stability. Investors can also leverage these predictive insights to optimize portfolio allocation, improve hedging efficiency, and better assess exposure to sovereign credit risk during volatile geopolitical periods.
