ABSTRACT Flowchart showing integrated methodological framework for multi-lag river stage forecasting, progressing from data collection through preprocessing, feature engineering with four lag windows, two input regimes (stage-only and exogenous), five forecasting architectures, and multi-metric evaluation. Accurate river stage forecasting is critical for flood and drought management in deltaic regions experiencing extreme hydrological variability. This study benchmarked an exogenous regressor-enhanced Prophet framework against machine learning (Random Forest, Light Gradient Boosting) and deep learning (BiLSTM, GRU) models for the Old Brahmaputra River, Bangladesh, using 15 years of daily observations (2007–2021). Models were assessed across four lag configurations (3, 7, 15, 30 days) under stage-only autoregressive and exogenous hydro-meteorological predictor regimes using nine metrics, PCA composite scoring, and flow-regime-stratified Pareto analysis. Under stage-only conditions, Prophet achieved R2 of 0.9984–0.9985 and RMSE of 0.0732–0.0743 m with NSE exceeding 0.998. These near-perfect metrics, however, primarily reflect autoregressive persistence rather than causal forecasting skill; the exogenous evaluation directly quantifies genuine skill once this advantage is removed. PCA scores of 1.000 confirmed Prophet's dominance in most configurations. Ensemble methods exhibited drought-stage overestimation with MAE_low values 4–5 times larger than Prophet's and prediction intervals 3.1–3.4 times wider. Under exogenous inputs, Prophet retained dominant performance (R2 = 0.91–0.93) with best-calibrated uncertainty bounds. Prophet's dual-regime robustness, computational efficiency, and interpretable decomposition establish it as the optimal framework for operational deployment in resource-constrained deltaic environments.
Rivers and watersheds in arid regions face severe governance challenges because hydrological interdependence crosses administrative boundaries, while water scarcity intensifies conflicts between upstream and downstream jurisdictions and among ecological and socio-economic goals. This study examines how intergovernmental cooperation affects watershed governance performance in arid Northwest China using a structure-process-performance framework. We conceptualize cooperation as the structure of intergovernmental networks and four mechanisms: interest coordination, communication and consultation, oversight accountability, and incentives and constraints. Based on a questionnaire survey of government agencies and basin-management organizations in the Kashgar River Basin, we test reliability and validity and estimate multiple linear regression and mediation models in SPSS 26.0. The results show that oversight accountability and incentives and constraints significantly improve governance performance, whereas cooperation networks and interest coordination have no significant direct effects. Communication and consultation mediate the effects of cooperation networks and selected mechanisms on performance. These findings indicate that, under scarcity, soft collaborative arrangements are insufficient without credible accountability, aligned incentives, and transparent information disclosure. Policy priorities include refining performance indicators, strengthening enforcement and disclosure, and institutionalizing cross-jurisdiction communication platforms.
ABSTRACT Local authorities are pivotal in promoting the adoption of decentralized alternative water sources, such as greywater reuse and rainwater harvesting for domestic non-potable water uses (e.g. toilet flushing or irrigation). Focusing on the process of updating a supra-municipal (provincial) framework to promote the use of such alternative water sources at the building scale, this paper analyzes and characterizes the evolution of local water-saving ordinances in the province of Barcelona (Spain). We analyze how local regulations mandate the installation in new buildings of alternative water systems, such as greywater reuse, rainwater harvesting or pool water reuse systems. The study aims to identify key challenges and unresolved debates that policymakers face when designing and updating these regulations. Using a mixed-methods approach that includes interviews with key stakeholders, surveys with municipalities, and participatory workshops involving both local administrations and technical expertise, the research examines the institutional frameworks that support these ordinances, the barriers municipalities encounter during implementation, and the technological and health debates surrounding their implementation. Our findings highlight the importance of supra-municipal guidance in shaping local water governance amid uncertainty about regulatory enforcement thresholds, ongoing debates over appropriate technologies for greywater reuse, and ambiguity around health standards for domestic alternative water sources.
ABSTRACT The Graphical Abstract shows the title at the top, reading “A Study of Ukraine’s Water Policy and Infrastructure Through Path Dependence”, followed by the authors' names. The abstract runs from left to right, representing a timeline of water infrastructure trajectory, confined by path dependence. It shows how at key moments, attempts to divert from this trajectory were unsuccessful in grey arrows, compounding the direction of policy into the origin flow. As such, lock-in is represented by a growing arrow along the same line of trajectory, with the grey arrows going nowhere. This is accompanied by critical junctures, where major disruptions prevented or enabled diversion from this trajectory. A large blue arrow diverts from the path, showing how EU integration has enabled change to the water sector. A large maroon arrow diverts in the alternative direction, showing how the war may also create diversion but from a negative perspective. Analysis of Ukraine's water sector through a path dependency framework shows how historical legacies, institutional inertia, and critical political junctures shape present challenges and future opportunities. The legacy of the Soviet Union, in both water infrastructure and policy development, is central to understanding the deterioration of the country's water systems since independence. Ageing infrastructure, fragmented governance, and chronic underfunding, compounded by political instability and corruption, reflect the enduring dynamics of historical institutionalism in Ukraine. Over the past decade, the government has made substantial strides toward overcoming these entrenched patterns, primarily through alignment with the European Union (EU) acquis, until the ongoing conflict hindered implementation. With new water policy and institutions not holistically established, war-related destruction of infrastructure and the environment has significantly exacerbated water stress. Hence, the development of comprehensive environmental monitoring and governance reform across Ukraine is pivotal for the successful recovery of the water sector. Efforts to reconcile and further develop water policies since the war indicate a determined trajectory toward sustainable governance through international collaboration and continued alignment with the European Union. Ukraine's long-term water security and climatic resilience hinge on coordinated international support, reconstruction financing, and strategic planning to transcend entrenched systems that have constrained reform.
Water is the most crucial component of urban life. It has been the foundation of socio-economic progress for the population. However, urbanization is reshaping the water scenarios in Indian cities, exerting huge pressure on urban water bodies, supply systems, and governance mechanisms. With increasing population and climate vulnerabilities, the interdependencies between the availability of water, infrastructure, and socio-political dynamics have become increasingly complex. This study adopted a systematic literature review approach, following PRISMA guidelines with a five-phase framework, to examine and understand the interrelationship between water, water bodies, and urban development in Indian cities. The review identified various thematic clusters around which the pertaining literature revolves, highlighting the diversity of urban water challenges in Indian cities. The findings highlighted various impacts of urbanization, issues such as inefficient supply, informal markets, governance, the potential of decentralized wastewater reuse systems, and the urgent need for sustainable and climate-resilient water strategies. The review highlighted several gaps, including the underrepresentation of smaller cities in the research. This research focused on context-specific synthesis of urban water literature exclusively within Indian cities, a domain that is often overshadowed by broader global reviews.
Emerging evidence confirms severe and widespread aquifer depletion and contamination worldwide. Along with a drying climate, it threatens water, food, economic security, ecosystem health, and the survival of 2.5 billion people. Poor water and land-use policies, mismanagement, and extreme climate events severely affect groundwater, which comprises 99% of Earth's accessible freshwater. Scientists call for renewed urgency, urging global leaders to act strategically, collaborate, and adopt new policies to sustain groundwater. As global temperatures rise, strategic leadership-a critical yet underappreciated link in international development-is essential to advancing and scaling groundwater governance reforms worldwide. We review an effective example of strategic leadership in a multiagency global initiative to strengthen aquifer resilience. We examine strategic leadership in designing and implementing the Global Environment Facility-funded Global Groundwater Governance Project by Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, and the International Association of Hydrogeologists, as a 'Cooperative Program,' including actionable reforms in knowledge, policy, institutions, and management actions in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, and influencing the 2022 UN World Water Development Report. We present a groundbreaking groundwater adaptation framework, adopted in several nations, that integrates land, aquifer, and surface-water management to enhance groundwater resilience. We urge renewed collaborative leadership and sustained funding to ensure water and food security, ecosystem health, and community resilience.
ABSTRACT The diagram illustrates WEF nexus and its role in environmental sustainability. It highlights key impacts, resource interactions, environmental sustainability and climate resilience. The water-energy-food (WEF) security nexus has gained significant recognition as a framework for addressing the interconnected challenges of resource security, environmental sustainability, and climate resilience. This review examines in detail the implications of the WEF nexus on environmental sustainability, placing emphasis on its role in guiding sustainable development pathways. The study thoroughly evaluates theoretical frameworks and models, as well as the dependencies, synergies, and trade-offs that exist in relation to WEF and its implications on the environment. By focusing on its dynamics, the review highlights how resource interactions directly influence ecological balance, efficiency in resource use, and long-term sustainability outcomes. The results highlight strong interdependencies between WEF systems, indicating the importance of the nexus as an integrative approach to align sustainability objectives with adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Realizing this potential requires stronger cross-sector governance mechanisms, the adoption of advanced integrated modelling tools, and the explicit inclusion of ecosystems as active stakeholders. These findings position the nexus as a transformative way of achieving climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable development in the region.
ABSTRACT Graphical Abstract Source: Personal creation Graphical abstract showing the summary of the review paper. Amid a deepening global water crisis, participatory governance has emerged as a necessity for sustainable water resource management. This structured narrative review examined stakeholder engagement in water policy and practice and identified challenges, including limited local participation, power imbalances, and funding issues. Despite these obstacles, evidence from diverse case studies demonstrates that inclusive engagement yields benefits for equitable water access. The literature confirms widespread recognition of stakeholder engagement's importance, yet reveals a critical research gap, limited guidance on how to design and implement truly effective, inclusive, and context-appropriate engagement processes. This review concludes that moving beyond tokenistic participation towards genuine co-governance involving local communities, private actors, service providers, and end-users is needed to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 6 and build water-secure futures. This study calls for further research into scalable, sustainable models of stakeholder engagement, particularly in developing countries and community-led contexts.
In the context of increasing water scarcity in Spain due to high water demands and the reduction of water resources because of climate change, this work presents an operational proposal for a just water transition in agriculture by means of a water reallocation, based on social and environmental criteria. Within a co-production framework with participants from agricultural organizations, trade unions, civil society and the academy, a set of socio-economic and environmental indicators was developed and then tested in the irrigators' communities around the Do & ntilde;ana National Park. Results show that the developed indicators successfully identify those farm units representing the type of agriculture to be prioritized according to the criteria defined by the participants in the co-production process, characterized as a family, social and professional agriculture safeguarding ecosystems and the rights of rural territories. Such indicators are therefore helpful to operationalize a social water reallocation in agriculture during droughts and other water scarcity contexts. Results also show the usefulness of knowledge co-production to develop indicators and criteria integrating academic and non-academic knowledge.HIGHLIGHTSThe need for a just water transition. Current water allocation in Spanish agriculture. Social and environmental implications of the present water allocation model. Proposals for a fairer distribution of water in agriculture, taking into account social and environmental criteria.
Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states often rely on shared water resources to meet socio-economic objectives. To ensure sustainable management of these shared watercourses, governments have committed to the obligations set out in the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses. The Protocol calls for closer cooperation in the pursuit of sustainable utilization of these watercourses through the harmonization of legislation. To this end, the paper evaluated the extent to which the selected water laws of four SADC member states align with the objectives and provisions of the Protocol. The selected SADC member states are South Africa, Lesotho, Botswana, and Namibia. The member states were evaluated against 6 key performance areas and 30 key performance indicators based on the principles and obligations outlined in the Protocol. Results revealed substantial harmonization in provisions for the sustainable, equitable, and reasonable utilization of shared watercourses, as well as for the protection and preservation of aquatic ecosystems. Conversely, weak harmonization for measures to promote harmonization of legislation and communication between member states was observed. Inadequate harmonization of national water laws across SADC states undermines effective transboundary governance, leading to fragmented management and constraining the region's ability to achieve sustainable, cooperative use of shared watercourses.
Diffuse pollution from agricultural and rural activities poses persistent challenges for water quality management in large river basins with fragmented administrative governance. This study evaluates the environmental effects of the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Governance of Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), a basin-targeted, multi-agency governance framework implemented in China in 2018. Using provincial panel data from 2012 to 2021 and a difference-in-differences approach, the study finds that the policy is associated with a statistically significant reduction in ammonia nitrogen emissions, with an estimated coefficient of 0.178 (10% level), implying approximately 16% reduction relative to the control group. The effect emerges one year after policy issuance, consistent with gradual implementation. Mechanism analysis reveals a conditional effectiveness pattern: detectable reductions occur through the livestock consolidation channel, where compliance is administratively observable, but not through agricultural input channels, where diffuse smallholder behaviour is hard to monitor. These results suggest that the effectiveness of coordinated multi-agency arrangements is bounded by the enforcement tractability of the instruments being coordinated.
Water management institutions play a crucial role in ensuring proper water management for achieving water security and sustainable socio-economic development. In the coastal regions of Bangladesh, hydro-climatic hazards such as waterlogging, storm surge, salinity intrusion, cyclones, and conflicts among water users are extensive. Although many studies have been conducted, the performance of water institutions and the exploration of their challenges and opportunities remain limited. This study, in particular, assessed institutional performance and evaluated the challenges and opportunities in selected polders, focusing on three core pillars of water management institutions: water laws, water policies, and water administration. Key findings indicate that although Bangladesh has many laws, regulations, plans, and policies, their practical implementation remains limited and largely confined to official documents. Moreover, poor inter-agency coordination and fragmented governance structures exacerbate these challenges, preventing the alignment of national strategies with local priorities. At the local level, water management organizations (WMOs) often fail to function effectively due to poor governance, political interference, limited maintenance funding, and reliance on short-term projects that become inactive after the cessation of external assistance. It recommends enhancing stakeholder participation, strengthening inter-agency coordination and WMOs through capacity-building initiatives, proper budgeting, and ensuring transparency.
Amidst escalating global water scarcity exacerbated by climate change and environmental degradation, elucidating the synergistic mechanism between environmental education (EE) and water-saving society construction (WSSC) is imperative. This study pioneers the evaluation of their coupling coordination degree utilizing a novel coupling coordination model, based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2010-2023). Comprehensive analysis employing panel vector autoregression reveals dynamic interactions, while the standard deviation ellipse and kernel density estimation map spatiotemporal evolution patterns. Key findings reveal: (1) both EE and WSSC development indices display sustained upward trends, with WSSC progressing markedly faster; (2) overall EE and WSSC coordination exhibits steady improvement, yet substantial regional disparities endure; (3) the coordination gravity center traces a distinct geographical trajectory by initially shifting southward, then westward; and (4) a mutually reinforcing relationship exists; however, WSSC exerts a significantly stronger positive influence on EE than the reverse. This research provides a robust empirical basis for optimizing cross-system differences and promoting the coordinated development of EE and WSSC, offering critical insights for policymakers and designing integrated global water-environmental governance strategies. HIGHLIGHTS center dot First quantification of environmental education (EE)-water-saving society construction (WSSC) synergy via CCDM using 2010-2023 provincial panel data. center dot WSSC growth outpaces EE; overall coordination rises; yet, regional gaps persist. center dot EE-WSSC gravity center shifts south, then west, revealing spatiotemporal evolution. center dot Panel vector autoregression shows bidirectional causality, with WSSC exerting stronger positive feedback on EE. center dot Offers an empirical blueprint for global water-environment governance.
An Indigenous notion of water justice focuses on the responsibility that people have toward it. This represents a departure from the focus on water as a human right, which was the premise for water justice at the turn of the century. The second wave of water justice is centered on the intrinsic value of nature and autonomy from settler colonial governments. In this piece, we trace the origins of Indigenous water justice, demonstrating its uniqueness. This manifestation of water justice in the context of Canada's First Nations provides one such lens through which to view water justice, though it does not account for all Indigenous perspectives. In spite of the variety between Indigenous perspectives, our analysis confirms an emerging notion of water justice which moves the conversation beyond a 'right to water' toward a 'responsibility toward water.' Viewing humans as obligated to responsibly manage water has very different policy implications than viewing water as a human right. In order to adapt to the coming shifts (and imbalances) in water supply due to climate change, it will be necessary to consider how people use water and to modify their consumption based on a sense of responsibility toward water.
Workflow constructing a WEF security indicator system, defining thresholds, preprocessing data, training nine machine learning models, applying random forest regression, and conducting SHAP-based driving factor analysis.The security of the water-energy-food (WEF) system is an important guarantee of sustainable regional development. Assessing WEF security and its drivers helps tackle resource and environmental challenges. Traditional assessment methods like system dynamics, logistic curve, and fuzzy logic rely on subjective inputs or specific assumptions, causing model inaccuracies that distort security evaluations. Based on 2012-2021 Yellow River Basin data, this study constructed a WEF security evaluation indicator system based on the pressure-state-response framework and established security threshold standards. Nine machine learning models were compared to identify the optimal approach for WEF security assessment, and Shapley additive explanations explained each factor's contribution and driving mechanism. The results indicated that random forest regression outperformed other models in evaluating the WEF security of the Yellow River Basin. The WEF security index plummeted in 2017, while changes in other years were relatively minor. Spatially, high-security areas were concentrated in the eastern and southern regions of the basin. Analysis of influencing factors revealed that most factors had similar levels of contribution to WEF security, with no single dominant factor, and their impacts were nonlinear and phased. This study provided a novel framework for WEF security evaluation and offered scientific support for policy formulation.HIGHLIGHTSThe water-energy-food (WEF) security was evaluated using interpretable machine learning methods. Random forest regression had the best performance in the comparison of nine machine learning methods. The WEF security index of the Yellow River Basin showed a significant decrease in 2017. The eastern and southern Yellow River Basin WEF system had higher safety ratings. Shapley additive explanations quantified the contribution and driving mechanism of each feature.
In Mexico, a clear form of water commodification is the system of concession titles, which, since its inception, has promoted the formation of a black market for permits. With a research strategy based on institutional ethnography, this article analyses the practices of state actors in creating the conditions for (il)legal groundwater grabbing in two regions of the state of Jalisco in Western Mexico. The first, known as the Highlands of Jalisco, is a semi-arid region with intensive agricultural production, and the second is the periurban fringe of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area, where the competition for water rights introduces new speculative actors. The article traces the processes of concentration of rights in both regions and the networks of actors within and external to state institutions who take part in the informal market for water rights. From a political ecology perspective, the article characterizes the institutional practices, actors and power relations that define the workings of the market for water concessions, as well as the socio-ecological implications of the concentration of formal water rights. The article discusses recent reforms to the permitting system and argues that they are insufficient to curb over-extraction and address the socio-ecological inequities that have been created.HIGHLIGHTSAn ethnographic approach to the practices of state actors makes clear their role in the process of concentration of water rights. Analysis of databases for water permits, combined with qualitative methods, reveals how water grabbing spans both formal and informal practices. Paper water, as authorized in permits, increasingly diverges from actual water use and access.
Map of the R & iacute;o Claro watershed, Chile, alongside four boxes summarising the study context, methodology, local organisation, and findings on water governance under scarcity.In the context of the climate crisis, water scarcity has become an increasingly critical challenge, particularly in rural territories affected by long-term reductions in rainfall. While much research has focused on the role of the state and public policies, less attention has been paid to how local water organizations respond to this crisis in practice, especially in Latin America. This article focuses on Chile's Maule Region, examining the case of the San Rafael Canal Users Association. Drawing on a qualitative approach that combines interviews, participant observation, and document analysis (2023-2024), the study explores how power relations within the organization shape unequal access to water and influence collective responses to scarcity. The findings reveal that formal rules reproduce hierarchies that privilege large landowners, while social relations and gender norms determine who participates and who is excluded. Material resources and institutional position further mediate the capacity to adapt and influence decisions, showing how collective management, both reflects and reinforces broader social inequalities.HIGHLIGHTSAnalyzes local water governance under prolonged scarcity in Chile's Maule Region. Reveals how rules, social relations, and gender norms shape unequal access. Shows how material and institutional resources influence adaptation. Highlights hydrosocial power as a key driver of inequality. Contributes empirical evidence to the political ecology of water.
This article examines how policy analysis can support transformations in water governance and management, especially under contested situations. Transformations aim to achieve deep and widespread change toward a more sustainable future. In response to pressing water challenges, transformations may be required within water allocation and rights systems, which are practiced in diverse frameworks across the globe. However, processes of transformation can be highly contested due to the varying knowledge, values, interests, and power relations that exist among involved actors. Research on navigating these contested transformations is limited; however, the field of policy analysis has long developed concepts and tools for addressing contested problems. Accordingly, we propose a framework comprising policy analysis activities to support navigating contestations across transformation approaches. We illustrate the usefulness of this framework through a case study of water allocation and rights in Indonesia. This analysis highlights that a diverse range of policy analysis activities have been undertaken across the three different transformation approaches, each of which exhibits contestation. However, policy analysis activities that support community-led transformations appear more limited, suggesting an important area of untapped potential in this and other water transformation contexts.
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) governance could improve service efficiency, resource management, and public health. However, public knowledge, trust, and perceived benefits are crucial to AI-driven WASH policy implementation. In this study, public awareness of general AI tools versus specialized WASH applications predicted benefits and deep-seated fears, and major adoption determinants are examined. In a mixed-method approach, semistructured survey data were descriptively examined to find patterns and correlations. General AI awareness is comparatively high, but WASH applications are poorly understood. Data privacy, reliability, and lack of human oversight are big issues, yet increased water quality, resource optimization, and faster response times are expected. This study is the first to show that unregulated AI deployment can automate and scale WASH inequalities. The study also introduces and measures AI-specific trust metrics such as Fairness Trust and Reliability Trust beyond attitudinal barriers. The findings show that adoption requires public trust, which is fostered by transparency, government accountability, and strong governance. This research goes beyond theoretical critique to provide policymakers with evidence-based input for building context-appropriate, human-centered, and socially sustainable AI-driven WASH solutions in varied settings like India. HIGHLIGHTS center dot Surveyed public awareness, trust, and adoption factors for artificial intelligence (AI) applications in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). center dot Targeted the critical gap between general AI familiarity and knowledge of WASH. center dot First empirical evidence that Unregulated AI risks automating and scaling existing WASH inequalities. center dot Shows transparency and accountability promote AI adoption over technical performance. center dot Delivered an evidence-based framework crucial for effective AI-driven WASH policies.
Access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) services is essential for public health and sustainable development. In Cross River State, Nigeria, households continue to face challenges in accessing reliable and safely managed WaSH services. This study examined household WaSH access in Calabar Municipality, Ikom, and Ogoja, focusing on access patterns, service-related challenges, and community participation in WaSH governance. A cross-sectional household survey collected quantitative data on water sources and collection practices, storage, treatment, sanitation facilities, hygiene behaviours, and community involvement. Findings show that boreholes are the dominant water source; however, limited reliability compels households to make multiple daily trips, increasing time and labour burdens. Although most households use improved sanitation facilities, concerns remain regarding maintenance, safety for children/vulnerable groups, and wastewater disposal. Hygiene practices, including handwashing and water treatment, are constrained by material availability, perceived risks, and inconsistent service provision. Community participation is extensive through sanitation activities, maintenance, and peer education; yet, it often substitutes for limited government support rather than complementing it. Guided by multidimensional access, collective action, and political ecology frameworks, the study highlights the interaction between infrastructure, household behaviour, and governance, underscoring the need for integrated interventions aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 6/related equity-focused goals.
