Credit scores have traditionally been calculated from sociodemographic and credit information contained in the databases of financial entities. After the recommendations of the Basel committee in 2004 and the 2008 crisis, the lack of updating of the models and the existence of information asymmetries became evident. In the present systematic review of 30 articles on psychological factors and their relationship with credit risk, the lack of consensus on default is evident and its main psychological predictors are intelligence and the big five traits, among others.
This paper studies the socioeconomic factors associated with labour and educational exclusion of young Colombians between 14 and 28 years of age (NEET) and the potential effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data from the Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares, discrete choice models are estimated to determine the factors affecting NEET probability. Results show that the likelihood of being NEET increases as age and household size increase and decreases as socioeconomic status and educational level increase. Persons who faced labour and mental health problems during the pandemic are more likely to be NEET.
In this paper, economic complexity metrics and a binomial logit model are used to establish whether the endogenous productive knowledge of the Colombian economy was a determining factor In the transition towards competitivity during the 2008-2016 period. Results show that the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), the distance, and the potential complexity of the sectors had a significant effect. The transition of industrial products occurred to a greater extent in the centre of the country, especially in Cundinamarca, which has led to an increase of regional economic disparities.
This paper investigates the co-evolution of financial fragility in the industrial sector and its balance sheet liquidity within the context of Brazil's economic slowdown. The decline in liquidity and limited access to credit under satisfactory conditions increased the sector's financial fragility between 2007 and 2018. Using a Panel Cointegrated Vector Error Correction (VEC) Model, we estimate the co-evolution of fragility with balance sheet indicators and the short-term dynamics of error correction. Some of the main results of the VEC suggest that indebtedness has been used to finance wage costs as well as real and financial investments.
This paper analyzes the relationship between reconfiguration capability and innovation capability in SMEs in the hotel sector of the department of Atl & aacute;ntico (Colombia). Structural equation modelling by partial least squares (PLS-SEM) was applied to evaluate the interaction of the variables under study. Findings indicate that organisation's ability to reconfigure positively influences the capability to innovate. Additionally, the results show that the size and age of the organisations negatively moderate the relationship between reconfiguration capability and innovation capability; that is, the smaller the size and age of the company, the greater the relationship between both capacities.
The paper identifies the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) effects on poverty reduction at the state level in Mexico over the period 2010-2020, using a dynamic panel data model following the S-GMM methodology. Sensitivity of all variables to the poverty proxy variable used is observed. Differentiated effects on poverty are observed depending on the poverty proxy variable used. It is found that FDI tends to reduce moderate poverty, but increases extreme poverty. It is concluded that the economic model is characterized by generating moderate poor linked to FDI and extreme poor excluded from the benefits of FDI.
This paper implements the probabilistic random walk methodology to predict the marginal product-capital ratio of the Harrod model and thus make predictions of the growth rate of China's economy with the Penn World Table database. The behaviour of the dynamics of the ratio was analysed geometrically to then study its probabilistic behaviour by means of probability spaces and, finally, a seconddegree equation was applied to numerically predict the variable for 2017. The physico-mathematically predicted value for the marginal capital product ratio for the year 2017 in China had an accuracy of 96.9 %. The applied methodology suggests, that the mathematical orders underlying economic growth can be characterised and predicted by acausal approaches in theoretical physics, potentially contributing to the generation of predictive methods in economics.
The determinants of an economy for peace are oriented towards sustainability associated with the satisfaction of socioeconomic and ecological rights, a condition that guarantees reliable environments with ontological and diachronic security. This research focuses on the analysis of such an economy for peace, associated with the eradication of relative deprivations that lead to dissatisfaction of social expectations and ultimately to social conflict. The results show that the increase of such expectations implies an increase in consumption that directly affects the energy balance expressed in the capitalist economic model.
This article analyses Internet access and use in households located in municipal centres and dispersed rural areas of Colombia. It estimates the likelihood that a household has access to and uses the Internet, as well as the main reasons for not doing so. It also examines the use of the Internet for purposes such as education, commerce, finance, and online government services, and identifies the factors associated with digital skills among household heads. The methodology is based on data from the 2019 Quality of Life Survey and employs binary and multinomial Logit regression models. The results indicate that household income, age, educational level, and digital competencies are the main determinants of Internet access. The most common reasons for not using it are not knowing how to use it or not considering it necessary. Among those who do use it, the most frequent activities are accessing social media and sending or receiving emails.
Governments in developing countries are making a series of efforts to achieve greater financial inclusion, which is achieved through credit card ownership, which facilitates financial transactions and services. The objective of this research is to characterise the adult population that lacks formal credit. Data from the National Financial Inclusion Survey (ENIF 2021), representative of the adult population in Mexico, are used. The results show that the variables that explain not owning a credit card are: education, age, sex, location, and cell phone ownership.
Este artículo estudia los factores socioeconómicos asociados con la exclusión laboral y educativa de los jóvenes colombianos entre 14 y 28 años (nini), y el efecto potencial de la pandemia del COVID-19. Usando datos de la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares, se estiman modelos de elección discreta para conocer los factores que afectan la probabilidad de ser nini. Los resultados muestran que la probabilidad de ser nini es mayor conforme aumenta la edad y el tamaño del hogar, y disminuye a medida que aumenta el nivel socioeconómico y el nivel educativo. Las personas que enfrentaron problemas laborales y de salud mental durante la pandemia tienen mayor probabilidad de ser nini.
Los gobiernos de países en desarrollo realizan una serie de esfuerzos con el fin de lograr mayor inclusión financiera. Esa inclusión se logra con la tenencia de tarjeta de crédito, que facilita transacciones y servicios financieros. El objetivo de la investigación es caracterizar a la población adulta que no cuenta con crédito formal. Se utilizan datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Inclusión Financiera (INEGI, 2021), representativa de la población adulta en México. Los resultados muestran que las variables que explican la no posesión de tarjeta de crédito son educación, edad, sexo, localidad y tenencia de celular.
Este artigo investiga a coevolução da fragilidade financeira do setor industrial e sua liquidez no balanço patrimonial, no contexto de desaceleração do crescimento da economia brasileira. A queda da liquidez e o acesso a crédito em condições satisfatórias aumentaram a fragilidade financeira do setor entre 2007 e 2018. Usando um Vetor de Correção de Erro (VEC) em painel cointegrado estimamos a coevolução da fragilidade com o balanço patrimonial e a dinâmica de curto prazo da correção do erro. Alguns dos principais resultados do VEC sugerem que o endividamento está sendo usado para financiar os custos salariais, investimentos reais e financeiros.
Este artículo analiza las relaciones entre capacidad de reconfiguración y capaci dad de innovación en pymes del sector hotelero del departamento del Atlántico (Colombia). Se aplica modelación de ecuaciones estructurales por mínimos cua drados parciales (PLS-SEM) para evaluar la interacción de las variables en estu dio. Se encuentra que la capacidad de reconfiguración influye de manera positiva en la capacidad de innovación. Así mismo, el tamaño y la edad de la empresa moderan negativamente la relación entre capacidad de reconfiguración y capaci dad de innovación; es decir, a menor tamaño y edad de la empresa, mayor la rela ción entre ambas capacidades.
Undergraduate Macroeconomics materials, usually written from the perspective of developed economies, teach that oil price shocks inversely affect equilibrium aggregate demand and output. However, in the context of a small, open, oil-exporting, and developing economy, these outcomes may not always hold true. Thus, this paper presents a model designed for use in undergraduate Macroeconomics and/or Development Economics courses focused on such economies. While drawing primarily from Colombia’s case, its general arguments may have broader applicability. To enhance its educational value, one author has prepared a companion resource with exercises for students, complete with detailed answers.
Artists’ careers, whether pursued individually or collectively, are a vulnerable occupational choice. This susceptibility translates into significant intra-occupational earnings inequality and a shorter duration of occupational stability. Factors such as precarious job linkages, freelancing, and low income contribute to discouraging individuals from pursuing a career as an artist. To a considerable extent, young artists embark on this career path with the intention of showcasing and honing their creativity, talent, and abilities. Consequently, numerous authors emphasise the prevalence of an oversupply of artists, particularly amongst the youth, juxtaposed with lower demand for art due to consumers’ income, education, and cultural preferences. To address this issue, the paper employs Kaplan-Meyer’s non-parametric survival models and Cox’s semi-parametric model, comparing artists, those engaged in science professions, and the entire occupied workforce for comparison purposes. For Cox’s model, standard control variables were established using the PNAD-Continuous, a household survey conducted between 2012 and 2022 in the capital cities of Brazilian states. The main findings reveal that the stability of art occupations in Brazil is more vulnerable when compared to occupations belonging to the group of Science Professionals and Intellectuals.
Este artículo implementa la metodología de la caminata al azar probabilista para predecir la relación marginal capital producto del modelo de Harrod, y con ello realizar predicciones de la tasa de crecimiento de la economía de China a partir de la base de datos Penn World Table. Se analizó geométricamente el comporta miento de la dinámica de la relación marginal para luego estudiar, por medio de espacios de probabilidad, su comportamiento probabilista. Finalmente se aplicó una ecuación de segundo grado con la que se predijo numéricamente la variable para 2017. El valor predicho físico-matemáticamente para la relación marginal capital producto del año 2017 en China tuvo una precisión de 96,9 %. La metodología aplicada sugiere que los órdenes matemáticos subyacentes en el crecimiento económico pueden ser caracterizados y predichos mediante enfoques causales de la física teórica, lo cual contribuye potencialmente a la generación de métodos predictivos en economía.
Este artículo emplea las métricas de complejidad económica y un logit binomial para determinar si el conocimiento productivo endógeno en la economía colombiana fue un factor determinante en la transición hacia la competitividad entre 2008-2016. Los resultados muestran que el índice de complejidad económica (ICE), la distancia y la complejidad potencial de los sectores tuvieron un efecto significativo. El sector industrial aprende mejor y genera externalidades positivas en el aprendizaje para el resto de la economía. La transición de productos industriales se dio en mayor medida en el centro del país, especialmente en Cundinamarca, y aumentaron así las disparidades económicas regionales.
Los scoring de crédito se han calculado tradicionalmente a partir de información sociodemográfica y crediticia contenida en las bases de datos de las entidades financieras. Tras las recomendaciones del Comité de Basilea en 2004 y la crisis de 2008, se evidenció la falta de actualización de los modelos y la existencia de asimetrías de información. En esta revisión sistemática de 30 artículos sobre factores psicológicos y su relación con el riesgo de crédito, se evidencia la falta de consenso sobre el default, siendo sus principales predictores psicológicos la inteligencia y los rasgos big five (BF), entre otros.
Este artículo analiza el acceso y el uso de internet en los hogares de las cabeceras municipales y de las zonas rurales dispersas de Colombia. Estima la probabilidad de que un hogar acceda a internet y lo utilice, así como las principales razones para no hacerlo. También evalúa el uso del servicio y discrimina entre fines de uso: educación, comercio, finanzas y servicios de gobierno en línea. Así mismo, identifica los factores asociados con las habilidades digitales de los jefes de hogar. La metodología emplea datos de la Encuesta de Calidad de Vida de 2019 y utiliza modelos de regresión logit binomial y multinomial. Los resulta dos indican que el ingreso del hogar, la edad, el nivel educativo y las competencias digitales son los principales determinantes del acceso a internet. Las razones más comunes para no usar Internet están relacionadas con la falta de conocimientos sobre su uso o con considerarlo innecesario. Entre quienes lo usan, las actividades más frecuentes son el acceso a redes sociales y el envío o recepción de correos electrónicos.
