We analyze the distributional effects of both, the COVID-19 crisis and the measures introduced to support household incomes, using the microsimulation model developed by the Office of the Fiscal Advisory Council (FISKSIM). In 2020, more than one-third of Austrian households were affected, at least temporarily, by unemployment, short-time work or losses in self-employed income. The fiscal measures to support household incomes clearly cushioned the financial impact of the crisis on households. They proved particularly effective in two ways: First, lower- income households benefited more (vertical effectiveness); second, within individual income brackets, those households that had experienced higher losses due to the COVID-19 shock benefited more strongly from support measures (horizontal effectiveness). This was achieved mostly by the establishment of the hardship fund and one-off payments to unemployed workers.
The challenges of climate change will affect all areas of economic policy, including monetary policy. Rising temperatures, extreme weather events and the political, social and technological responses to climate change may have significant effects on prices, output, productivity or credit markets. Central banks need to reflect these effects in their assessment of risks to price stability, their projections of economic developments and their analyses of financial markets. The mandate of the Eurosystem defines price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy, but it also mentions the support of general EU economic policies, including those aiming at environmental protection. In this contribution, we describe the implications of climate change for price stability, for the future conduct of monetary policy and for central banks’ balance sheets. While monetary policy may play a role among the possible economic policy reactions to climate change, we contrast this role with more effective policy responses. Monetary policy has several instruments at its disposal: changes in the collateral framework, asset purchases and disclosure of climate-related information. Monetary policy implementation is subject to operational constraints, e.g. the principle of market neutrality, which need, however, to be balanced against central bank objectives and must take market inefficiencies into account. Our considerations square well with the ECB’s recently presented action plan to include climate change considerations in its monetary policy strategy.
The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Austria’s labor market has been huge and a lot heavier than during the Great Recession of 2009 in terms of the increase in unemployment and the drop in employment. Key metrics show that the decrease in employment was broadly in line with the euro area average and that the increase in unemployment went hand with an increase in long-term unemployment and the average duration of unemployment. The generous short-time work scheme rolled out by the government prevented a turn for the worse and also lessened the downward pressure on average wages induced by the strong decrease in average hours worked per employee in 2020. While manufacturing or construction were hit as well, the tourism industry was affected most by the crisis, contributing to a relatively stronger increase in unemployment in provinces with a higher tourism-related share of employment. Younger employees and especially foreigners were also relatively more affected by the increase in unemployment, while employees with tertiary education were relatively less affected. Labor supply, while losing momentum, did continue to grow in 2020, while it had stagnated during the Great Recession.
Die vorliegende Studie analysiert die Verteilungswirkungen der COVID-19-Krise sowie der Masnahmen zur Stutzung der Haushaltseinkommen auf Basis des Mikrosimulationsmodells des Buros des Fiskalrats (FISKSIM). Mehr als ein Drittel der osterreichischen Haushalte war im Jahr 2020 zumindest temporar von Arbeitslosigkeit, Kurzarbeit oder von Verlusten an Selbststandigeneinkommen betroffen. Die fiskalischen Masnahmen zur Stutzung der Haushaltseinkommen federten die Effekte der Krise deutlich ab. Zudem wiesen diese insgesamt in zweifacher Hinsicht eine gute Treffsicherheit auf: Niedrigere Einkommen profitierten relativ starker (vertikale Treffsicherheit), wahrend innerhalb der verschiedenen Einkommensgruppen jene Haushalte starker profitierten, die durch den COVID-19-Schock starkere Verluste erlitten hatten (horizontale Treffsicherheit). Dies liegt vor allem am Hartefallfonds sowie an den Einmalzahlungen an Arbeitslose.
This study presents the OeNB’s new weekly indicator of economic activity, which is based on a demand-side approach to measuring GDP and which relies on real-time data. The weekly OeNB GDP indicator (1) tracks economic development in Austria on a weekly basis; (2) provides estimates of the contributions of the main demand components of GDP; (3) focuses on seasonally adjusted year-on-year changes; and (4) considers shifts from cash to noncash consumer spending, thus taking into account behavioral changes in the use of payment instruments. The OeNB has published weekly GDP estimates since early May 2020 and has thus provided policymakers and the public with important and timely information on the state of the Austrian economy. First benchmarking results indicate that the weekly OeNB GDP indicator generated rather accurate results for aggregate economic activity in the first two quarters after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria. We describe the construction and the main features of the weekly OeNB GDP indicator, present its results for the period from March to December 2020, discuss the strengths and shortcomings of our approach and draw some lessons from more than eight months of weekly nowcasting with real-time data. Indicator updates will continue to be released during the COVID-19 pandemic at https:// www.oenb.at/Publikationen/corona/bip-indikator-der-oenb.html.
Contributing 7.3% to Austrian value added, tourism is an important pillar of the Austrian economy. It has been hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 crisis. We analyze the impact of the crisis using high-frequency real-time data on payment card spending and monthly data on overnight stays. During the lockdown in spring 2020, overnight stays in Austria dropped by almost 100%. Over the summer, tourism activity recovered strongly, backed by domestic and German tourists. Nevertheless, it remained clearly below 2019 levels. In October 2020, the renewed increase in the number of COVID-19 infections led to another severe downturn in Austrian tourism, as several neighboring countries posted travel warnings. On November 2, 2020, a second lockdown started in Austria – accommodation establishments and restaurants were closed. Hence, we expect overnight stays to drop again by around 95% in November. As the Austrian government announced on December 2, 2020, Austrian accommodation establishments will not open before January 2021; on top of that, travel warnings by major countries of origin (especially Germany) will remain in place. Based on these assumptions, we estimate total overnight stays to decrease by 36% in 2020. This will be mainly attributable to a strong decline in overnight stays by foreign tourists (–41%), while overnight stays by domestic tourists will go down by only 23%. The overall decline in overnight stays could have been far stronger if the lockdown in spring 2020 and the recent shutdown had not fallen into the off-season but into the high season in winter or summer.
Austria’s public f inances – both, automatic stabilizers and discretionary measures – have played a major role in easing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Austrian economy. During the two lockdowns in spring and November/December 2020, discretionary f iscal measures were mainly aimed at supporting the health care system and mitigating the effects of the lockdowns. Measures adopted after the first lockdown provided classic stimuli to boost economic activity. Initiatives to promote private and public investments followed, which, ideally, support the transition to new technologies and ways of working and thus increase the Austrian economy’s long-term growth potential. Given the high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, the measures taken to contain COVID-19 might, however, be less effective than during normal times. Moreover, policy measures must be unwound with caution to avoid that crisis legacy issues, such as tax deferrals or accumulated debt once the moratoria are lifted, hamper the economic recovery. At the same time, the measures should be carefully designed and targeted to avoid overcompensation of private companies at the cost of society. While the unprecedented fiscal measures and automatic stabilizers built into the budget have left their mark on Austria’s public finances, their sustainability is currently not at risk. Nevertheless, as low interest rates might not stay around forever, the high debt ratio should be reduced in the medium-term in a socially and environmentally sustainable way.
With a view to developing the Eurosystem’s TARGET2-Securities (T2S) system further, we propose a system based on distributed ledger technology (DLT) that covers all major T2S settlement functionalities and investigate it with regard to regulatory compliance, performance, cost efficiency and risk. The system we propose is a federated system comprising European central banks and central securities depositories (CSDs) as node operators. The role of the central banks is to maintain the cash accounts; provide regulatory-approved “smart contract factories” defining workflows for securities issuance, lifecycle management and matching, settlement, auto-collateralization and corporate actions; and perform the oversight function. The CSDs maintain securities accounts, offer notary services for issuers, perform corporate actions, and carry out settlement. CSD nodes collect settlement requests from external trading and clearing systems, forward them to other CSDs for cross-border settlement, bundle them into transaction blocks and prepare the blocks for settlement. The ensuing ledger updates occur via a fully automated consensus process between the central banks. In T2S on DLT, specialized smart contracts provide the flexibility to settle a range of digitally represented assets, define novel workflows – and allow for variable settlement times. Rather than having to conform to a uniform settlement time of T+2, participants can choose among smart contracts that settle within seconds or longer periods of time. This feature is expected to reduce capital costs and, given the DLT-based enforcement of settlement discipline, settlement failures. Apart from conforming to the current regulatory requirements, the DLT framework also enables the central banks and authorized actors to conduct status checks at a granular level and in real time.
We employ a novel modeling approach to capture the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral insolvency rates in Austria. Turnover shocks derived from a macroeconomic scenario generate stress to firms’ profits and cash flows. Over time, both the equity and the liquidity (cash and bank) positions deteriorate, which causes insolvencies if firms fall under certain thresholds. Our model builds on data for nonfinancial incorporated Austrian enterprises available from the BACH and SABINA databases. Since only two firm-level variables (equity ratio, cash and bank) are available at sufficient coverage, we generate a hypothetical firmlevel dataset for 17 NACE 1 sectors by using a Monte Carlo simulation. The granularity of our model allows us to assess the impact of mitigating measures implemented in light of the COVID-19 shock. Such measures serve to cushion the loss of companies’ revenue and households’ income triggered by the COVID-19 containment measures. Put differently, they are meant to minimize the damage resulting from the deliberate temporary reduction in economic activity. In our analysis, we only investigate measures aimed at firms. These measures include equity injections via grants and subsidies (e.g. short-time work), longterm payment deferrals (e.g. credit guarantees) and short-term payment deferrals (e.g. social security contributions). We used all available data sources to calibrate the mitigating measures, with August 31, 2020, as cutoff date. The model indicates a marked increase of COVID-19-induced insolvency rates, but mitigating measures reduce such insolvencies substantially. Without mitigating measures, the insolvency rate would rise to 5.8% by the end of 2020, more than quintupling its pre-crisis average (2017–2019: 1.0%). By end-2022, 9.9% of all Austrian firms would fail, which corresponds to an annual insolvency rate of 3.3%. With mitigating measures in place, the insolvency rate is significantly lower, reaching 2.1% by end-2020, and 6.9% by end-2022. Projected insolvency rates should be interpreted with caution. The merit of this novel approach, however, lies less in the calculated sectoral insolvency rates themselves, but in the model’s capacity to compare and rank the efficiency and efficacy of various mitigating measures. As to the current measures, we, for instance, find that credit guarantees appear most effective, followed by fixed cost support and short-time work. In the short term, delayed filing for insolvency is most efficient, but is set to mostly reverse itself in 2021, once public institutions recommence their usual practice. At the OeNB, the model has also been used to assess implementation delays and the extension of mitigating measures. We intend to continuously extend the model, both in terms of its core functionality and the calibration of mitigating measures to address questions from (1) a macroeconomic perspective, in particular the loss of productive capacities (potential output), (2) a fiscal policy perspective, to estimate the costs of mitigating measures, and (3) a macro- and microprudential banking supervisory perspective, to provide a basis for estimating credit default probabilities for the banking system.
To shed light on price developments during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria, we analyze online price data collected from April to August 2020 by means of webscraping. Our analysis focuses on product categories that received special attention during the COVID-19 crisis, such as food and medical products. In contrast to what has been reported in the media, we find only small price changes for most product categories over the observation period. For food, nonalcoholic beverages, personal care products and IT equipment, we find small price decreases. Prices for alcoholic beverages remained broadly stable. Medical products and delivered meals saw very small price increases. When comparing price changes derived from our online price dataset with monthly price changes as reported in official inflation statistics, we find similarities for some product categories but also considerable differences for others. These differences are most likely attributable to methodological differences in data collection. For the analysis of price developments, we find that webscraped data are a useful data source complementary to data from official inflation statistics.
Aggregate productivity and economic growth may be reduced by “zombie firms” – weakly performing companies that, instead of exiting the market or being restructured, manage to continue operating over an extended period. This article presents first results on the incidence of such zombie firms in Austria, based on three definitions relating to firms’ interest expenses but focusing on different aspects thereof. The main definition measures interest expenses as a ratio of earnings (“interest coverage ratio”). The other two definitions are based on the relationship of interest expenses to liabilities and enhance this information either with firms’ probability of default or their interest coverage ratio. According to all three definitions, the share of zombies fell substantially (even if to different degrees) between 2009 and 2018, across industries and firm sizes. The drop of the zombie share was particularly strong for highly leveraged enterprises. Still, at the end of our observation period, zombie firms continued to have less favorable risk characteristics than non-zombie firms, in particular a distinctly higher probability of default. How this pattern may have changed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen because our data do not go beyond 2018. Somewhat reassuringly, zombie firms are not more prevalent in those industries that were hit particularly hard by the pandemic. Further findings were obtained with simulations keeping the policy interest rate unchanged over the period under review. Under this assumption, the zombie share established with firms’ interest coverage ratio would have remained roughly constant. The difference between the observed and the simulated zombie shares is particularly pronounced for real estate-related industries, more leveraged firms, and larger companies. Finally, the data show that zombie status is not irreversible. Among those firms for which financial statements information is available for the entire observation period, most zombie firms manage to exit from zombie status.
The Eurosystem’s monetary policy response to the COVID-19 crisis has been swift and powerful. Its policy package contained both extensions and enlargements of existing unconventional monetary policy measures, including the further loosening of their respective conditions. The Eurosystem also introduced new measures to meet the extraordinary challenge posed by the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we provide a pilot study to analyze the credit supply effects of one important building block of the monetary policy rescue package: the Eurosystem’s targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs). The modalities and conditions of the current vintage of TLTRO, TLTRO III, were significantly relaxed in spring 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We draw on Austrian bank-level data and exploit an instrumental variable strategy to approximate the effects of the June 2020 TLTRO uptake on banks’ supply of new loans. We find evidence for an unambiguously positive effect of TLTRO participation on the supply of new loans in Austria. The estimated credit supply elasticity, however, differs substantially (ranging between 0.26 and 1.00), depending on the specification and caveats considered.
This study discusses the potential effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the finances of households in Austria. Different individuals and households have been exposed to the crisis in very different ways and to varying degrees. In the first part of this study, we discuss different types of households and different channels through which the COVID-19 crisis may affect households’ financial situation. The second part of the study uses data from the Austrian Corona Panel Project (ACPP) carried out by the University of Vienna as well as data from the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) for Austria to analyze (potential) impacts of the crisis. We find that those households who had already found themselves in a difficult social, economic and financial situation before the COVID-19 crisis were the ones suffering the largest income losses (e.g. low-income households or households with an unemployed reference person).
Osterreich weist eine – im europaischen Vergleich – uberdurchschnittlich hohe Produktivitat je geleisteter Arbeitsstunde auf. Im Zeitraum seit dem Beitritt zur Europaischen Union im Jahr 1995 bis zum Jahr 2017 liegt das Niveau rund 20% uber jenem der EU-28, allerdings 6% unter dem des wichtigsten Handelspartners Deutschland. Diese Abstande haben sich im Beobachtungszeitraum von 1995 bis 2017 nicht wesentlich verandert. Das Produktivitatswachstum ist in Osterreich – einem internationalen Trend folgend – von 2% vor der Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise auf unter 1% danach zuruckgegangen. Die Ergebnisse einer Shift-Share-Analyse zeigen, dass das gesamt¬wirtschaftliche Produktivitatswachstum durch das Wachstum innerhalb einzelner Branchen erklart wird, wahrend der Strukturwandel das gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktionswachstum dampft. Branchen mit einer hohen Produktivitat haben zugunsten von Branchen mit einer niedrigen Produktivitat an Bedeutung verloren. Angebotsseitig wird mehr als die Halfte des Produktivitatswachstum in Osterreich von der Gesamtfaktorproduktivitat getragen. Auf makrookonomischer Ebene ist ein enger Zusammenhang zwischen dem Produktivitatswachstum je geleisteter Arbeitsstunde und der Veranderung der Gewinnquote in Osterreich zu beobachten. Nach einem Anstieg um 7 Prozentpunkte erreichte die Gewinnquote im Jahr 2008 mit 37 % ihren Hohepunkt im Beobachtungszeitraum und ging anschliesend auf 31% im Jahr 2017 zuruck. Ein ahnlicher Zusammenhang ist fur Profitabilitatsmase auf Basis von Bilanzkenn¬zahlen nicht zu erkennen.
Die grosen osterreichischen Banken erkannten nach dem Fall des Eisernen Vorhangs fruh die Chance, den margenschwachen Heimatmarkt nach Zentral-, Ost- und Sudosteuropa (CESEE) zu erweitern. Bankneugrundungen und -zukaufe erlaubten rasch in dieser Region fuszufassen und die Aussicht auf mogliche EU-Beitritte von CESEE-Landern loste eine Reform- und Aufbruchstimmung aus. Die dynamische Kreditvergabe brachte hohe Gewinne mit sich, aber die schnelle Expansion hatte auch Schattenseiten. So erfolgte die Kreditvergabe oftmals in Fremdwahrungen und wurde durch die Mutterbank refinanziert. Die aufgebauten Risiken wurden wahrend der globalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise schlagend und fuhrten zu hohen Kosten. Bei den Banken folgte eine Phase der Konsolidierung. Makroprudenzielle Masnahmen zur Hintanhaltung von Risiken fur die Finanzmarktstabilitat waren eine wichtige Lehre aus der Krise, die auch in Osterreich von der Bankenaufsicht gezogen wurde. Das in den letzten Jahren erneut einsetzende Wirtschaftswachstum verbesserte die Zahlungsfahigkeit der Kunden. Die gute Ertragslage ist aber auch dem wieder anziehenden Kreditwachstum geschuldet, das erneut systemische Herausforderungen mit sich bringt und makroprudenzielle Masnahmen in einigen CESEE-Landern notwendig machte. Der wirtschaftliche Aufholprozess im erweiterten Heimatmarkt osterreichischer Banken bietet weiterhin ein beachtliches Wachstums- und Ertragspotenzial und die momentane Gewinnsituation und Qualitat des Kreditportfolios sind gut. Allerdings bringen der vom Kreditwachstum getriebene lange Aufschwung und die einsetzende wirtschaftliche Abschwachung auch zahlreiche Herausforderungen mit sich, denen sich die betroffenen Banken und die Bankenaufsicht stellen mussen.
Empirische Studien zeigen, dass die EU-Mitgliedschaft und die Schaffung des Europaischen Binnenmarktes 1992 zu einer hoheren Direktinvestitionstatigkeit fuhrten. Theoretisch ist es moglich, dass die Auswirkungen der wirtschaftlichen Integration auf die auslandischen Direktinvestitionen (foreign direct investment, FDI) mit zunehmender Zahl an EU-Mitgliedstaaten im Lauf der Zeit nachlassen. In dieser Arbeit werden die Auswirkungen des EU-Beitritts auf die Greenfield-Direktinvestitionen untersucht. Dabei wird nach Sektoren (Dienstleistungen und Sachgutererzeugung) unterschieden, und es werden die unterschiedlichen Herkunftslander berucksichtigt. Die Auswirkungen werden anhand eines FDI-Gravitationsmodells geschatzt, das Informationen uber 200.000 Direktinvestitionsprojekte im Zeitraum von 2003 bis 2018 enthalt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Auswirkungen der EU-Mitgliedschaft auf die Greenfield-Direktinvestitionen fur Bulgarien und Rumanien gros und signifikant sind, jedoch nicht signifikant fur Kroatien. Die Anzahl der angekundigten Greenfield-Direktinvestitionsprojekte osterreichischer multinationaler Unternehmen in Bulgarien und Rumanien stieg in den ersten drei Jahren nach dem Beitritt um durchschnittlich 180 %, die Zahl der dadurch geschaffenen Arbeitsplatze um 140 %. Die grosten Effekte waren bereits im Jahr vor dem Beitritt zu beobachten gewesen. Investitionen aus den Nicht-EU-Landern sind nach dem EU-Beitritt weniger stark angestiegen. Die Ergebnisse unterscheiden sich nicht wesentlich fur den Dienstleistungssektor und die Sachgutererzeugung.
Economic activity in Austria has been sharply curbed by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. During the first-wave lockdown, the OeNB’s weekly GDP indicator registered a decline of economic output by one quarter. After the exit from lockdown, the GDP gap narrowed very rapidly, amounting to –3½% compared to previous year levels in the first half of October. Among the hardest-hit sections of the economy, tourism benefited from markedly stronger domestic demand during the summer, which limited the year-on-year decline in overnight stays to 15% in July and August. Meanwhile, the travel alerts newly issued by a number of countries for Austria since mid-September have been taking their toll, though. For October, real-time data on card payments already point to a 40% decrease in overnight stays. In contrast, export performance has been improving, mirroring the slight upward trend in the production sector. By September, the decline in goods exports had dropped to a small percentage according to the OeNB’s export indicator. Looking ahead, the ongoing rapid rise in infection rates constitutes downside risks to growth, however. While the GDP forecasts for 2020 (about –7%) are fairly solid given strong third-quarter performance, the recovery projected for 2021 may turn out to be below the range currently expected (+4½ to +5%). The recovery in the labor market has already been slowing down. Registered unemployment exceeded the year-earlier mark by 71,000 unemployed individuals by mid-October and thus a mere 30% of the peak measured in April, but unemployment has been shrinking at a decreasing pace. The early warning system for impending layoffs implemented by Public Employment Service Austria points to more layoffs coming in the weeks ahead. Inflation has been highly volatile in 2020 so far, reflecting energy price fluctuations as well as one-off effects (fashion clearance sales started later usual) and price measurement problems. In September, HICP inflation came to 1.3%. In line with the OeNB’s inflation forecast of September 2020, HICP inflation is expected to run to 1.4% in 2020 and to climb to 1.7% in 2021.
In dieser Studie beschaftigen wir uns mit der Frage, ob und wie sich der Inflationsprozess in Osterreich durch die Veranderungen der wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen in den letzten Jahrzehnten, wie etwa aufgrund des EU-Beitritts, der Bildung der Wirtschafts- und Wahrungs¬union (WWU), der Globalisierung sowie der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise, verandert hat. Zu diesem Zweck werden verschiedene Spezifikationen einer erweiterten Phillips-Kurve zuerst auf Strukturbruche getestet und anschliesend fur verschiedene Subperioden sowie mit zeit¬variablen Koeffizienten unter Verwendung von statistischen Glattungstechniken geschatzt. Dabei werden drei signifikante Strukturbruche gefunden: einer Mitte der 1980er-Jahre, den wir mit dem Beginn der Great Moderation – einer Phase geringer makrookonomischer Volati¬litat – in Verbindung bringen, ein weiterer im Jahr 1995, der mit dem EU-Beitritt Osterreichs zusammenfallt und ein dritter im Jahr 2000, der den Beginn der WWU markiert. Die Sub¬perioden- und zeitvariablen Koeffizientenschatzungen ergeben, dass es in Osterreich die meiste Zeit in den vergangenen 40 Jahren eine stabile Phillips-Kurve gab. Es bestand somit ein positiver Zusammenhang zwischen Inflations- und Konjunkturentwicklung, der aber in den 1990er-Jahren vorubergehend schwacher wurde. In dieser Phase durften externe Faktoren, wie der EU-Beitritt, die Errichtung der WWU und die Globalisierung einen starkeren Einfluss auf die osterreichische Inflation bekommen haben. Interessanterweise hatte die Geldpolitik erst ab dem Beginn der WWU einen messbaren Einfluss auf die laufende Inflationsentwicklung, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Transmission der stabilitatsorientierten Geldpolitik des Eurosystems in Osterreich gut funktioniert.
Seit dem EU-Beitritt kam es in Osterreich zu einem Anstieg der Beschaftigung von Personen aus den „alten“ EU-Mitgliedstaaten, seit dem Jahr 2004 und insbesondere seit 2011 zu einer deutlich starkeren Beschaftigungszunahme aus den „neuen“ EU-Mitgliedstaaten. Diese Arbeitskrafte leisten einen bedeutenden Beitrag zum heimischen Wirtschaftswachstum. Die Zuwanderung aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten lasst sich gut durch die Grose der Herkunftslander, ihre geografische Distanz und ihren Wohlstand relativ zu Osterreich erklaren. Burgerinnen und Burger der alten EU-Mitgliedstaaten arbeiten eher im Westen Osterreichs, wahrend jene der neuen Mitgliedstaaten vornehmlich in den ostlichen Bundeslandern Beschaftigung finden. Die Beschaftigten aus der EU sind uberwiegend mannlich, jung und gut ausgebildet. Wahrend diejenigen aus den alten Mitgliedstaaten meist als Angestellte in akademischen und technischen Berufen tatig sind, sind die Beschaftigten aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten haufig Hilfsarbeitskrafte oder arbeiten in Dienstleistungs- und Handwerksberufen. Probit-Schatzungen ergeben, dass sich das Arbeitslosigkeitsrisiko durch die Zuwanderung aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten nur geringfugig erhoht hat. Bei einigen Gruppen von Beschaftigten (Arbeiter, Beschaftigte mit uberwiegend manuellen Tatigkeiten sowie vor allem Dienstleistungs- und Verkaufsberufe) ist dieser Effekt aber hoher.
