This thesis studies the determinants of spatial variation and persistence of economic activity. The first chapter assesses the impact of the construction of the Interstate Highway System on the skill composition of metropolitan areas in the USA. Reduced-form estimates indicate that each additional highway caused an increase in the share of college-educated residents of 0.6 percentage points. Using a quantitative spatial model, the chapter also measures the welfare effects associated with a hypothetical removal of the interstate network. The effects are large for all skill groups. Graduates would nonetheless experience bigger losses in terms of welfare as they are more likely to relocate and incur the higher migration costs.The second chapter documents high persistence of regional development in England and Wales over the last 800 years. Using data on the establishment of medieval markets, the study highlights a strong correlation between commercial activity and agricultural productivity in the late Middle Ages. Places with successful medieval markets remain better developed nowadays. The evidence suggests that path dependence is the most likely explanation for the persistence of development over many centuries. The third chapter studies the relationship between asylum policies and international tensions. The main hypothesis is that European Union member states are more likely to admit refugees from states perceived as rivals rather than partners. Data on asylum applications from 1999 to 2017 bear this out. This result can rationalize a negative and robust correlation between asylum recognition rates and EU imports from the rest of the world.
Quel peut etre l’effet de l’introduction de quotas face aux inegalites de genre dans l’enseignement superieur et la recherche ? Dans une etude recente, Pierre Deschamps s’est interesse a l’impact de la mise en place depuis 2015 d’un quota de 40% de femmes dans les comites de selection a l’universite en France. Il s’est appuye sur des donnees administratives sur 455 comites academiques et 1548 candidates appartenant a 3 universites publiques francaises. Publies dans le Working paper n°82 du LIEPP « Gender Quotas in Hiring Committees : a Boon or a Bane for Women », les resultats de cette etude interrogent la conception et les effets des politiques d’egalite dans l’enseignement superieur et la recherche. En effet, si le quota est effectivement respecte, la progression de la proportion de femmes dans les comites semble s’etre accompagnee d’une diminution des chances de recrutement des femmes candidates. Ces conclusions ont fait l’objet d’une discussion interdisciplinaire lors d’un « Debat du LIEPP » organise le 5 avril 2019. Prenant appui sur des travaux de droit et de science politique, Anne Revillard est revenue sur l’origine et les objectifs des reformes instituant le quota. Marie Sautier a mis en perspective les resultats de cette etude a partir d’une analyse sociologique des mecanismes de production des inegalites de genre. Representant la Mission pour la place des femmes au CNRS, Mathieu Arbogast a pointe les obstacles specifiques a la mise en œuvre des quotas dans le monde de la recherche, et presente plusieurs pistes de reformes dans le prolongement de ces travaux.
As the actions of individuals contribute substantially to climate change, identifying factors that underpin environmentally-relevant behaviors represents an important step towards modifying behavior and mitigating climate change impacts. This paper introduces a sequential model in which antecedent psychological and sociodemographic variables predict climate change risk perceptions, which lead to enhanced levels of response efficacy and psychological adaptation in relation to climate change, and ultimately to environmentally-relevant behaviors. The model is tested and refined using data from large national surveys of Australian and French residents. As hypothesized, in both samples, risk perception (indirectly), response efficacy (both indirectly and directly), and psychological adaptation (directly) predicted behavior. However, these effects were stronger in the Australian than in the French sample, and other unexpectedly strong direct effects were also observed. In particular, subscribing to a “green” self-identity directly predicted all endogenous variables, especially in the French sample. The study provides valuable insights into the processes underlying environmentally-relevant behaviors, while serving as a reminder that effects on behavior may be nation-specific. Strategies are recommended for promoting pro-environmental behavior through the enhancement of a green identity, response efficacy, and psychological adaptation.
Ce document se veut etre un support guidant les futurs projets portes par l'axe Politiques educatives du Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire d'Evaluation des Politiques Publiques (LIEPP) autour du theme de recherche « Apprentissages et competences socio-comportementales » chez les enfants. Ne pouvant couvrir toutes les competences existantes et toutes leurs sous-dimensions, nous nous sommes particulierement interesses aux plus predictives de la reussite academique et a celles qui pouvaient etre le plus socialement biaisees. Le choix des competences traitees s'appuie egalement sur les thematiques de recherche privilegiees des membres de l axe et s’inscrit dans le cadre du recent redeploiement du LIEPP en collaboration avec Universite de Paris. Trois syntheses sont ainsi proposees portant respectivement sur les competences non-cognitives (dites aussi socio- emotionnelles) telles que l'engagement, le controle de soi ou les competences sociales ; les fonctions executives et plus particulierement l'inhibition, la mise a jour en memoire de travail et la flexibilite cognitive ; et enfin la metacognition.
Ce travail de prevision a ete realise sur la base d'un retour progressif a une situation sanitaire moins contrainte (i.e. des mesures prophylactiques proches de celles de l'ete 2020) a partir du deuxieme trimestre 2021. Dans le monde, la valeur ajoutee ne retrouvera son niveau de fin 2019 qu'a la fin 2021, apres une chute de plus de 10 % au deuxieme trimestre 2020, impliquant ainsi la perte de deux annees de croissance du fait de la crise sanitaire. En partant de notre prevision realisee en octobre 2019, l'evaluation de cette perte d'activite liee a la crise de la Covid-19 fin 2021 se situe entre -2 points (Allemagne et Italie) et -6 points de PIB (Espagne). Pour la Chine, la perte serait de 2,3 points de PIB. Dans les principaux pays developpes, une epargne «forcee» s'est constituee durant la crise sanitaire. A la mi-2020, nous l'evaluons a pres de 90 milliards de livres sterling pour les menages britanniques soit 12 points de leur revenu disponible (RdB), a plus de 60 milliards d'euros en France et en Allemagne (respectivement 8,6 et 7,6 points de RdB) et est proche de 40 milliards d'euros en Espagne et en Italie (respectivement 10 et 6,4 points de RdB). Cette epargne moyenne cache la dynamique de la pauvrete. En France, sur l'ensemble de l'annee 2020, nous prevoyons une baisse de 9% du PIB. 55% du choc serait absorbe par les administrations publiques. Les entreprises verraient leur revenu se reduire de 56 milliards (ce qui correspond a 41 % du choc) et leur taux de marge baisserait de 4,2 points de valeur ajoutee sur l'annee. La baisse de revenu pour les menage serait limitee (-5 milliards) et l'accumulation d’«epargne Covid» serait elevee, representant 86 milliards d'euros sur l'ensemble de l'annee 2020. Pour 2020 le deficit atteindrait -8,9% de PIB, un maximum historique depuis que les comptes nationaux sont disponibles. En 2021 le deficit public s'etablirait a -6,3% du PIB. Le nombre de chomeurs augmenterait de 810 000 sur l'annee 2020 et le taux de chomage atteindrait 11% en fin d'annee. Le chomage baisserait de 400 000 personnes en 2021 et le taux de chomage serait de 9,6 % de la population active fin 2021, soit 1,5 point de plus que son niveau observe fin 2019. Le Plan de relance ameliorerait le PIB a hauteur de 1,1% pour 2021 et la croissance serait de 7%. Le calibrage budgetaire des mesures de reponse a la crise sur deux ans couvre environ 30% des pertes cumulees d'activite sur 2020-21, soit une part similaire au plan de relance de 2009-2010. En 2022, les nouvelles mesures issues du Plan de relance auraient un impact de 0,9 point de PIB sur l'activite.
Compare aux autres pays de l'OCDE, le capital public en France est eleve ainsi que la qualite des infrastructures. Mais la tendance depuis dix ans n'est pas favorable. L'investissement public brut est sur une tendance decroissante depuis maintenant plusieurs annees. Le taux de croissance de l'investissement public net montre une chute plus importante encore. Cela signifie que la depreciation du capital public et des infrastructures n'est que tres partiellement compensee. La valeur patrimoniale des administrations publiques est encore positive mais a subi une chute importante et atteint un point bas inquietant. En effet, la dette publique a cru plus vite que le capital public. En plus des effets de long terme, les analyses montrent que l'investissement public a l'avantage de stimuler l'activite economique a court terme. Pendant la periode de crise de la Covid-19, il faut s'attendre a des effets positifs importants en France du fait de la situation economique courante. L'investissement public est presque autofinance en periode de recession. Les collectivites locales sont le premier investisseur public. Elles realisent pres de 70 % de l'investissement public civil. L'investissement public pour les ouvrages de genie civil, le logement, l'education et la protection de l'environnement est principalement realise par les collectivites locales. Trois fonctions de l'investissement public demandent un effort particulier. La premiere est la maintenance des infrastructures existantes, en particulier de genie civil. La seconde est la transition energetique et l'investissement pour la biodiversite, dont les montants totaux necessaires sont eleves. Enfin la troisieme concerne les infrastructures de l'economie numerique. Le plan de relance de 100 milliards d'euros indique une inflexion encore modeste en faveur de l'investissement public. En effet, les montants necessaires sont eleves sur plusieurs annees. A court terme, l'enjeu essentiel est la mise en œuvre rapide de l'investissement public afin de beneficier a la fois des effets de court et long terme.
Les financements de groupements de chercheurs travaillant sur une thematique commune viennent dans beaucoup de pays completer les financements individuels. Nous evaluons dans ce papier les effets d’un programme de ce type, le financement des Laboratoires d’Excellence (LabEx), en comparant les projets finances a ceux non finances et en se restreignant a ceux ayant recu une note similaire des evaluateurs. Nous montrons que (i) l’effet principal du financement est de transformer radicalement la structure des collaborations en augmentant le nombre de co-publications entre membres du Labex de plus de 30% ; (ii) l’effet sur la productivite des chercheurs impliques est positive mais relativement faible ; (iii) ceux qui n’etaient pas au cœur de la thematique initialement beneficient significativement plus du financement et renforcent le plus leurs collaborations au sein du LabEx ; (iv) le programme LabEx semble moins promouvoir l’excellence que reduire les inegalites au sein des communautes selectionnees.
What is the impact of campaign spending on votes? Does it vary across election types, political parties or electoral settings? Estimating these effects requires comprehensive data on spending across candidates, parties and elections, as well as identification strategies that handle the endogenous and strategic nature of campaign spending in multiparty systems. This paper provides novel contributions in both of these areas. We build a new comprehensive dataset of all French legislative and UK general elections over the 1993-2017 period. We propose new empirical specifications, including a new instrument that relies on the fact that candidates are differentially affected by regulation on the source of funding on which they depend the most. We find that an increase in spending per voter consistently improves candidates’ vote share, both at British and French elections, and that the effect is heterogeneous depending on candidates’ party. In particular, we show that spending by radical and extreme parties has much lower returns than spending by mainstream parties, and that this can be partly explained by the social stigma attached to extreme voting. Our findings help reconcile the conflicting results of the existing literature, and improve our understanding of why campaigns matter.
Investments in the green economy are used for both environmental goals and fiscal stimulus.The success of these investments depends, at least in part, on whether they create new jobs and whether such jobs are available to workers hurt by a green transition.We evaluate the employment effect of green investments from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).Most job creation from green ARRA investments is permanent and emerged in the post-ARRA period, but the plausible range of estimates is extremely wide (zero to twenty-five jobs per $1 million).Such large uncertainty on aggregate effects masks substantial heterogeneity across communities.The green stimulus mostly benefited areas with a greater prevalence of preexisting green skills that created 40 percent additional jobs than average communities.New jobs are primarily manual labor and in occupations performing green tasks, especially in renewable energy.However, manual labor wages do not increase.Descriptive evidence suggests that the skill gap between green energy and fossil fuel workers is modest, but green jobs require significantly more training.Because the spatial distribution of skills and jobs matters, using green stimuli can help reshape the economy in the long run but may also exacerbate regional inequities associated with the green energy transition.
New firms are often based on ideas developed within incumbent firms. We study spinoff activities in a growth model with entry and product quality innovation. Spinoffs increase aggregate productivity through product variety expansion and, if created voluntarily by incumbents, boost their return to equity. However, they erode incumbents' market share and, when stemming from conflicts between incumbents and employees, raise incumbents' internal cost of capital. The analysis reveals that a priori investment protection has an ambiguous impact on spinoff activities, depending on whether it focuses on incumbents' product quality investments or the creation of voluntary spinoffs. The calibrated model indicates that a broad investment protection reform reduces the spinoff rate but boosts incumbents' product improvement, raising income growth and welfare. The trade-offs are consistent with firm -level evidence from Italy.
Evidence-based policies are crucial to maximize well-being. In recent years, governments, international development organizations and academia have mainstreamed the need for data and evidence in the design, implementation and evaluation of public policies. The 2019 Nobel Prize in economics awarded to Duflo, Banerjee and Kremer is another clear example of the relevance of policy evaluation to tackle many global and local development issues. While randomized experiments appear to be one of the most precise ways to identify the causal effect of policies, a wide range of government programs are not designed in a way that ensures their ex-post evaluation – as this can be costly and often requires human resources and capacity that tend to be scarce particularly in developing countries and regions. Yet policy makers need evidence to adjust policies, re-allocate budget and adapt actions in order to maximize people’s well-being given the available resources.This thesis presents three cases where ex-post policy evaluation is possible either by exploiting geographical discontinuities in implementation of the policy (Chapters 1 and 3) or regional discontinuities created by policy regulations (Chapter 2). Each chapter focuses on different (but highly interrelated) issues of the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). While Chapter 1 assesses the impact of universal healthcare on maternal and perinatal mortality, Chapter 3 explores the effect of decentralization on outcomes related to the global goal to end hunger, notably on food security. Chapter 2 studies how funds stimulate business creation and productivity, which is part of the SDGs for economic prosperity.
Dans la continuite du OFCE Policy brief, n° 66, nous evaluons l'impact du choc de la pandemie du Covid-19 sur l'economie mondiale en avril 2020 en partant des tableaux entrees-sorties issus de la World Input-Output Database (WIOD). Selon notre evaluation, au mois d'avril 2020, le PIB mondial a chute de 19 % tandis que le commerce mondial a baisse de 25 %. Au niveau mondial, la valeur ajoutee de la branche de l'hebergement-restauration aurait diminue de 47 %. De meme la fermeture des commerces non essentiels decidee dans nombreuses economies avancees ferait reculer la valeur ajoutee du commerce de 43 %. Ensuite, les secteurs lies a la mobilite auraient eux aussi ete fortement touches : la valeur ajoutee aurait chute de 35 % dans la fabrication de materiels de transport et de 28 % dans le transport et entreposage. De la meme facon qu'au niveau des branches, les pertes d'activite ne sont pas uniformement reparties geographiquement. Les regions les plus touchees par les mesures prises au mois d'avril se situent en Europe : l'Espagne, l'Italie et la France font partie des pays les plus affectes et connaissent des chutes de valeur ajoutee de plus de 30 points (pouvant aller jusqu'a 36 % en Espagne). Parmi les economies avancees, les Etats-Unis et l'Allemagne connaissent des chutes d'activite moins fortes (de 22 % et 24 % respectivement) en lien avec des mesures de confinement moins restrictives dans l'ensemble. Si l'Allemagne connait les pertes domestiques les plus moderees, le pays souffre cependant de sa forte exposition a la demande etrangere. En revanche, les Etats-Unis limitent l'impact du choc par leur relative fermeture commerciale. La baisse d'activite liee aux fermetures etant plus marquee dans les secteurs a plus forte intensite de main-d'œuvre, en avril, l'impact de la crise sur la demande de travail est plus fort que l'impact sur la valeur ajoutee. C'est tout particulierement le cas aux Etats-Unis et au Royaume-Uni, pays qui enregistrent une baisse de la demande de travail tres forte alors que le recul de la valeur ajoutee y est plus faible qu'ailleurs. Pour proteger l'emploi, les gouvernements des pays europeens ont mis en place des filets de securite visant a limiter le cout social de cette crise en mutualisant les salaires que les entreprises ne peuvent plus verser a travers le chomage partiel. En avril, l'activite partielle couvrirait 77 % des emplois salaries touches en France, 83 % au Royaume-Uni, 72 % en Espagne, 75 % en Italie et 59 % en Allemagne. Dans le cas des Etats-Unis, le dispositif d'activite partielle n'existe pas (ou tres marginalement). Au total, aux Etats-Unis, les destructions d'emplois pourraient concerner 22,4 millions de salaries. En Europe, le mecanisme d'activite partielle en tant qu'amortisseur majeur de l'incidence de la crise sur le marche du travail a limite les licenciements. C'est en France et en Italie qu'ils seraient les plus faibles (malgre un choc economique consequent) : 3 % des emplois salaries frappes par la crise. En Allemagne l'importance des destructions d'emplois salaries s'explique par les pertes d’emploi touchant 1,5 million de minijobbers, non eligibles au chomage partiel : ceux-ci representent les 4/5e des 19 % de pertes d'emplois salaries.
The introduction of a universal point-based system modifies the link between labour income and pension benefits. In this paper, we showthat for private-sectorworkerswith full careerswhose earnings fall belowthe social security contribution ceiling, the new system effects a redistribution in favour of the lowest-wage trajectories ; immediate conversion of pension rights acquired under the previous system into points is also more advantageous for low-wage trajectories than under the multiple calculation rules of earlier schemes ; careers with low-contribution years can be expected to incur significant declines in benefits ; and for low-wage careers, subsequent increases in the minimum pension may in some cases lead to a higher perceived effective pension.
This dissertation is a collection of three essays in the fields of international trade and industrial organization. The first two chapters study the macroeconomic implications of firm heterogeneity. In the first chapter, I use data on the universe of French manufacturing exporters from 1994-2001 to study the relationship between international trade and the manufacturing labor share. In particular, I investigate how and to what extent changes in demand conditions on foreign markets impact the labor share. This chapter aims to shed light on whether international trade may affect the labor share through channels other than changes in import exposure. In the second chapter, which is joint work with Flavien Moreau, we study the cost of distortions to competition on aggregate productivity. To do so, we have assembled a database on the identity of colluding firms that have been fined by the French competition regulator. We document novel stylized facts on cartels and anticompetitive firms. We use a static macroeconomic model to study the economic cost of cartels and help answer the following questions: is it large? If so, why does it differ from what Arnold Harberger obtained in his 1954 paper? Finally, the last chapter co-authored with Florin Cucu studies the link between asylum policies and foreign policy concerns using panel data on asylum applications in the European Union from 1999 to 2017. We then study what this relationship implies for international trade flows in a gravity regression framework.
This paper proposes a new determinant of labor share changes. Using micro-data on the universe of French manufacturing exporters over 1995-2007, I show that a measure of export demand growth exogenous to firm-level outcomes drives down the manufacturing labor share through two effects. First, foreign demand shocks allow low-labor share, highly internationalized “superstar” exporters to grow disproportionately more. Second, foreign demand growth decreases the labor share of exporters and this effect is stronger for larger exporters. Both effects explain 12% of the labor share decline over 1995-2000 and led to a 1.2 percentage point drop over 2000-2007. A simple model of endogenous competition with heterogeneous firms rationalizes the findings. A market size increase allows exporters to expand, which decreases their share of fixed labor cost in value-added, and increases competition on international markets. Fiercer competition favors superstar exporters, further decreasing their labor share through the fixed cost channel. Overall, these findings provide direct causal evidence of a “winner take most” phenomenon induced by trade globalization.
We use comprehensive micro data in the French manufacturing sector between 1994 and 2015 to document the effects of automation technologies on employment, wages, prices and profits. Causal effects are estimated with event studies and a shift-share IV design leveraging pre-determined supply linkages and productivity shocks across foreign suppliers of industrial equipment. At all levels of analysis — plant, firm, and industry — the estimated impact of automation on employment is positive, even for unskilled industrial workers. We also find that automation leads to higher profits, lower consumer prices, and higher sales. The estimated elasticity of employment to automation is 0.28, compared with elasticities of 0.78 for profits, -0.05 for prices, and 0.37 for sales. Consistent with the importance of business-stealing across countries, the industry-level employment response to automation is positive and significant only in industries that face international competition. These estimates can be accounted for in a simple monopolistic competition model: firms that automate more increase their profits but pass through some of the productivity gains to consumers, inducing higher scale and higher employment. The results indicate that automation can increase labor demand and can generate productivity gains that are broadly shared across workers, consumers and firm owners. In a globalized world, attempts to curb domestic automation in order to protect domestic employment may be self-defeating due to foreign competition.
Transitions have a bad name. Rob Hopkins, who arguably introduced the word ‘transition’ into the environmental lexicon, is said to have chosen the most neutral expression possible, so that reluctant consumers and businesses would not be frightened by the hard choices and sacrifices entailed by living in harmony with the biosphere (as opposed to blindly destroying it). Transitions are supposed to be painless. What is worse, the French historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz has convinc- ingly argued that ‘energy transition’ is an expression coined by indus- trial lobbies in the mid-1970s to prevent the idea of ‘energy crisis’ from taking hold in western minds. Transitions are supposed to never really happen (and remain, forever, ideas for tomorrow). And yet, the concept of transition is actually a very powerful tool to think about what we should be doing in the face of worsening ecolog- ical crisis—and to act upon it. Imagining a transition means having to answer three fundamental questions: why is the world we live in not desirable anymore, what world do we want and how to get from here to there?
The note presents the computation of industry foreign inputs dependency using input-output tables. It gives details on each level of dependency and finish with the infinite computation using the Leontief inverse matrix. It ends with some evidence by using WIOT data from 2000 to 2014 which shows the high growth of the technical dependency to Chinese inputs over the past 15 years. Construction, Telecommunications and Chemicals are Chinese-dependent sectors among the 20 first which also contribute a lot to the French economy. Nevertheless, for France and European countries, the dependency to Chinese inputs is well behind the dependency to European inputs.
ECB's asset purchase programmes have been implemented at different times in different economic environments and may pursue different objectives. From the point of view of removing financial fragmentation and taming sovereign stress in the euro area, the PEPP has been successful so far. Moreover, this outcome was obtained without fully using its potential resources. To date and contingent on the available set of information, the current monetary stance has not gone too far and it retains some ammunitions. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).
L’article propose une introduction au numéro spécial de la Revue de l’OFCE « Écologie et inégalités » en présentant les différents âges de l’économie de l’environnement, le défaut d’intérêt de la discipline économique contemporaine pour les enjeux environnementaux et les étapes de ce que serait une transition juste.
