深入分析中国农产品出口影响因素与贸易潜力,可为科学把握入世以来中国农产品贸易趋势,进一步推动中国农产品贸易发展提供参考.基于2001～2020年中国向主要国家和地区出口农产品贸易数据,采用随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型探究其影响因素,进一步测算贸易潜力与效率.结果表明,中国与农产品主要进口国的经济规模和地理边界因素对贸易有显著正向影响,而人口规模和地理距离有显著负向影响;班轮运输连通性指数、关税水平、自贸协定签订和世贸组织加入情况可显著促进贸易效率提升,而贸易自由度和货币自由度对贸易效率提升有显著阻碍作用.此外,中国对日本的农产品出口贸易潜力最大,而对越南、泰国等东南亚国家的出口贸易潜力较小.对此,应利用好WTO新一轮谈判契机,加强与各国之间的农产品贸易合作;持续推动国家经济发展,大力推进农产品国际贸易基础设施建设,与各国共同打造高效畅通便捷的农产品立体交通贸易网络;积极推进与贸易效率较高国家的合作,进一步挖掘贸易潜力.
It is of important value to explore farmers’ motivation of adopting GMR（green manure-rice system） for revealing the behaviorial process and formulating supporting strategies. In this paper, a theoretical analytical model of the influence of heterogeneous household endowment on the adoption motivation of GMR is constructed by systematically identifying the scientific category of farmers’ adoption motivation, and an empirical analysis was subsequently conducted by using the survey data of 541 farmers in Southern Rice Region of China. Results showed that there were positive internal motivation and negative external motivation for farmers to adopt GMR. The adoption motivation of a single farmer had multiple compound characteristics,while the whole farmer group was mainly driven by internal economic motivation. Compared with the farmers with external motivation, farmers with abundant human capital, economic capital and natural capital were more likely to have internal motivation for GMR adoption, while the farmers with higher degree of fragmentation of family land and lower natural endowment were more likely to have external motivation for adopting GMR.Compared with farmers with non-economic motivation, young farmers with large family agricultural labor force and high proportion of agricultural income were more likely to have economic motivation, while farmers with part-time agricultural operation were more likely to have non-economic motivation to adopt GMR. Compared with the farmers with social relation motivation, the farmers with compensation incentive motivation were mostly males, and the arable land operated by their families was larger, while the farmers with contracted land were more inclined to have social relation motivation when GMR was adopted.
Clan network is an important factor affecting the competitiveness of farmers’ entrepreneurial enterprises. Based on relevant data from the "Thousand Village Survey" of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, the influence of clan network on the competitiveness of farmers’ entrepreneurial enterprises was empirically tested, and the mediating effect of corporate social responsibility on the relationship between the two was explored. The research showed that the natural trust foundation of the clan network effectively alleviated the disadvantages of the resource acquisition capabilities of farmers’ entrepreneurial enterprises and promoted the enhancement of the competitiveness of farmers’ entrepreneurial enterprises. The fulfillment of corporate social responsibility played a significant role as an intermediary between the clan network and corporate competitiveness, which specifically showed the positive impact of alleviating the pressure of stakeholders and providing assistance to corporate competitive advantages at the same time.
As the main source of cultivating new agricultural operating subjects and professional farmers,and cultivating local talents, "the second generation of farmers" has positive significance for promoting the prosperity of rural industries and realizing the comprehensive rural revitalization strategy. Based on the survey data of Henan, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces, structural equation model（SEM） was used to analyze the mechanism of social capital on the adoption degree of agricultural innovation management behavior of "the second generation of farmers". The results showed that: when the effect of knowledge stock was not considered,structural social capital had a significant positive impact on the adoption of new production and circulation technologies for "the second generation of farmers", the influence of cognitive social capital on the adoption degree of new production technology was significantly positive. Tacit knowledge and explicit knowledge in structural social capital and the production and circulation of "the second generation of farmers" of new technology adoption were the partial mediation effect in the degree of relationship, in the cognitive model of social capital and "the second generation of farmers" of new production technology of adoption relations were partial mediating effect, in the cognitive model of social capital and “the second generation of farmers" of new circulation technology adoption relations were the suppressing effects. The indirect effect of tacit knowledge was greater than the mediating effect of explicit knowledge. The results of this study had theoretical implications for the study on the adoption degree of "the second generation of farmers" agricultural innovative management behavior and had important practical significance for promoting "the second generation of farmers" agricultural innovative management and the development of modern agriculture.
Based on the perspective of the sinicization and modernization of Marxism, food security theories were extracted from the classical works of Marxism and the theoretical logic, practical path and contemporary revelation of national food security in the new era were discussed. The study found that the theory of national food security guarantee in the new era originated from the innovation and development of Marxist food security theory, the path was determined by the world conditions, China’s national conditions and agricultural conditions, and the core lay in the establishment of socialist food production methods with Chinese characteristics. Cultivating modern food production factors at the micro level, establishing and developing a modern food industry system at the meso level, and strengthening the modernization of the food security governance system and governance capacity at the macro level were the practical paths to guarantee national food security in the new era. Finally, we explore the revelation of the times from the starting point, political guarantee, realization path, and demands of the times of national food security guarantee practice in the new era.
In recent years, China’s soybean oil prices and soybean import dependence are rising simultaneously. This phenomenon is explained from the perspective of the influence of partial ownership among soybean processing enterprises on market competition in China. Based on the MHHI（Modified HerfindahlHirschman Index）, the concentration of China’s soybean processing market under partial ownership such as cross shareholding and joint ownership was calculated. By constructing an ARDL（Autoregressive Distributed Lag） model, the effect of soybean processing market concentration on soybean oil prices and soybean import dependence in China were empirically studied. The results showed that the concentration of soybean processing market in China had a significant positive impact on soybean oil prices and soybean import dependence in the long and short term, and the long-term impact was greater than that of the short-term impact. Finally, it was suggested that relevant institutions should pay close attention to the impact of partial ownership concentration on market competition, related enterprise behavior and consumer welfare, and implement necessary intervention.
Based on 279 provincial panel data from 2011 to 2019, the SBM-GML index is used to measure agricultural total factor productivity in 31 provinces of China, and a fixed-effect model and a spatial Durbin model were constructed to analyze the impact of digital inclusive finance on agricultural total factor productivity. The results showed that digital inclusive finance improved agricultural total factor productivity mainly through technological progress, but there were dimensionality and regional heterogeneity. The depth of financial use was more effective in enhancing agricultural total factor productivity compared with the breadth of financial coverage and the degree of digitalization of inclusive finance; digital financial inclusion in the central and eastern regions promoted agricultural total factor productivity, while digital inclusive finance in the western region was not conducive to agricultural total factor productivity; digital inclusive finance in main grain producing helped to improve agricultural total factor productivity, but the effect of digital inclusive finance on agricultural total factor productivity was not significant in both the main food marketing areas and production and marketing balance areas. The analysis of spatial spillover effects showed that digital inclusive finance in this region had a positive impact on local agricultural total factor productivity, but digital inclusive finance in neighboring regions had a negative impact on local agricultural total factor productivity. For this reason, rural digital inclusive finance should be vigorously developed and the coordinated development of digital inclusive finance among the regions should be promoted.
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2010 to 2019, after considering the endogenous influence, the lag term of endogenous variables and sunshine duration were used as the instrumental variables to analyze the impacts of outsourcing service demand and financial credit on agricultural production investment.The study found that: the demand for outsourcing services significantly promoted investment in agricultural production, and topographic features had a moderating effect on the demand for outsourcing services affecting agricultural production investment; agriculture-related loans did not have a significant impact on the investment in fixed assets of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, but significantly promoted the investment in fixed assets of farmers, which meant that the current agriculture-related loans had deviations in actual use,and did not really follow the policy guidance to flow into agriculture production area. There was indeed a "positive U-shaped" relationship between the demand for outsourcing services and investment in agricultural production. Therefore, farmers should be encouraged to outsource production links to enhance the depth and breadth of outsourcing services, accelerate the transformation and construction of farmland suitable for mechanization, improve the access and operating conditions of agricultural machinery, and create good basic conditions for the development of the outsourcing service market in mountainous areas, strengthen supports for the rural financial market, especially to increase supervision in the flow of credit funds, and effectively ensure that the flow of loans can meet policy requirements.
Farmland is the basis of national food security and the launch of food crop production strategy based on farmland is an important measure to improve it. Overall, the protection of farmland system in China has undergone three stages. At the first stage, the purpose of farmland protection is ensuring the areas. Then,the goal has oriented to quantity guarantee and quality improvement. At last, ecology protection has also been added to the strategy. From the theoretical perspective, this strategy embodies the practice of Max’ idea of land and Factor theory in China. Improving the efficiency of farmland is an effective way to achieve the Pareto equilibrium. At present, farmland protection is faced with many challenges, such as insufficient arable and reserve farmland resources, limited sustainable development, non-grain production, misallocation of water and heat resources, etc. Under the new circumstance, in order to comprehensively implement the strategy,governments should strengthen the control of farmland use, vigorously improve the quality of arable land,optimize the match of resources, and press down the responsibility of food security to municipal authorities.
为构建消除相对贫困的长效机制,动态识别以及量化分解城乡相对贫困变动显得尤为重要.研究基于2010～2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)25省数据,利用"识别—增长—分配"三成分分解框架和洛伦兹曲线量化分解方法研究城乡相对贫困动态变化过程.结果表明,城乡相对贫困存在显著差异,使用全国统一的相对贫困线会低估城市相对贫困水平,高估农村相对贫困状况,需建立城乡差异化的相对贫困识别标准;城乡相对贫困变化的主要原因是精准帮扶政策实施带来的城乡收入分配差异,收入增长放缓和收入分配不平等加剧导致城市相对贫困不断增加,收入分配的减贫效应促使农村相对贫困得到有效遏制;同时发现城乡差异相对贫困线是一个可兼顾识别准确度和简易度的权衡选择.因此,应继续实施精准帮扶政策,加大低收入者分配力度,将城乡差异线作为相对贫困标准,建立城乡差异化相对贫困的动态识别机制.
随着人民生活品质不断提高,营养健康成为粮食安全的新关注点.通过反映营养健康的体质指数(BMI),关联平衡膳食,得到不同群体的营养满足程度,测算出具有营养健康特性的粮食自给率,并与其他测算方式相比较,分析粮食净进口对营养健康的影响.研究发现,2008～2018年,中国仍有10%左右人口营养不足,超重、肥胖人口比例持续增加;中国居民膳食结构不合理,薯类消费不足;肉类消费远超平衡膳食范围,造成过度摄入;现有膳食消费模式转向平衡膳食模式能有效提高粮食自给率;粮食安全内外循环总体正常,不同类别食物净进口对营养健康影响差异较大.建议有关部门制定针对营养不足人口的营养支持计划;建立粮食过度浪费与粮食供给不足之间的调节机制;倡导平衡膳食模式;采取措施增产奶类及奶制品、大豆及豆制品、薯类和水产类等食物,以提高人民健康饮食水平.
阻断农户返贫是高质量脱贫和实现共同富裕的关键.利用原"三区三州"西藏地区708份建档立卡户调查数据,考察社会资本对欠发达地区脱贫农户返贫风险的影响,探索并验证了职业类型和生计方式调节社会资本影响农户返贫风险的作用机制.研究表明,社会资本显著降低了脱贫农户返贫风险,社会资本越高、社会网络关系越强、社会信任程度越高、社会参与频率越高、社会地位声望越高,返贫风险越低.异质性分析发现,社会资本的减贫作用对中青年农户、贫困程度较低、农区的农户更显著.作用机制分析表明,非农业职业类型和非农业生计方式对社会资本降低农户返贫风险有正向调节作用,社会资本较丰富的农户,非农就业和非农生计更容易,更能降低生计风险和化解返贫风险.因此,应增强社会资本,提高农户应对风险的韧性,赋权增能,培育农户发展能力,促进非农就业和非农生计,降低农户返贫风险,化解"脱贫难、返贫易"难题.
水稻种植户绿色生产技术采纳有利于农业投入品减量增效,实现绿色生产.为了促进水稻绿色生产技术的推广应用,基于江西省520份水稻调研数据,运用二元Probit回归模型,探讨风险偏好、合作社参与对水稻种植户绿色生产技术采纳行为的影响.结果表明,风险偏好对水稻绿色生产技术采纳行为具有正向影响,即风险偏好程度越高的水稻种植户采纳绿色生产行为的概率越高;合作社参与能强化风险偏好对水稻绿色生产技术采纳行为的影响,同时风险偏好对不同规模水稻种植户的绿色生产技术采纳行为具有异质性影响.基于此,在水稻绿色生产技术推广中,应关注种植户的风险偏好,保障种植户收益;加大技术宣传与推广力度,以提高水稻种植户绿色生产的认知水平;加大水稻种植户的政策支持力度,以提高其抗风险能力.
探寻县城土地资源利用效率的提升路径,对于优化县城空间布局、推进以县城为重要载体的新型城镇化建设具有重要意义.研究基于TOE框架,运用非期望超效率SBM模型与模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA),探究中国28个省1881个县城的土地资源利用效率提升的数字化驱动路径.研究发现,我国县城土地资源利用效率提升具有"组织—技术""组织—环境""技术—环境""组织—技术—环境"四类数字化驱动路径.各县应结合自身条件,采取差异化驱动路径,有效组合数字技术建设、数字化治理、数字经济发展、数字普惠金融、数字生活服务等条件因素,实施土地资源最优配置的政策方针.
构建"稻谷—大米"价值链,对"稻谷—大米"价值链上价格形成过程进行描述性统计分析,采用Johansen检验、格兰杰因果检验方法及VEC模型方法,对价值链上主要环节价格联系及其主要影响因素进行实证研究.研究表明,稻谷收购市场和大米零售市场存在长期均衡状态,稻谷收购市场和稻谷国内期货市场存在长期均衡状态,但短期价格传导效率较低;"稻谷—大米"价值链上产生的价格增值主要集中在大米零售、大米加工和农户稻谷出售环节;所谓"稻强米弱"造成大米加工企业普遍经营不善的说法不能得到必要证据支持;过于强调国有粮库"顺价销售"出库大米不利于实现以粮食自产为基础的粮食安全目标.最后提出继续实施稻谷最低收购价格政策和以实现粮食自产为基础的粮食安全目标等政策建议.
随着土地流转规模逐年扩大,如何有效保障和稳定农户耕地的高效利用已成为一个重要议题.探讨土地租金与农户转入土地规模之间的关系形态,可助力保障农户利益、对推动土地规模化生产具有重要意义.因此,基于内蒙古自治区调研获得的418份微观数据,利用工具变量回归模型对土地租金与转入土地规模之间关系进行实证研究.结果显示,土地租金与农户转入土地规模呈倒"U"型关系,且种植结构能够对土地租金与农户转入土地规模产生显著调节效应,种植经济作物比种植粮食作物更能使曲线关系形态陡峭且拐点发生右移.为促进土地流转规模化经营,首先应从土地租金入手,积极推进土地流转市场化改革,健全土地租金价格形成机制.另外,基于种植结构的调节作用,为保证种粮农户收益,政府要加大种植户补贴力度,激励农户合理调整种植业结构,促进农业可持续发展.
粮食增产与农民增收是完成中国式现代化任务的双效指标.通过梳理粮食生产区域集聚对农民经营性、工资性、财产性与转移性收入影响机制,运用2013～2020年各省面板数据进行回归分析并作稳健性检验,结果表明,"重农抓粮"地区的粮食生产区域集聚对农民经营性收入增长影响有限;粮食生产集聚区域内农民偏好就近就地务工获取工资性收入;粮食生产集聚对农民财产性收入在统计上无显著影响,对农民转移性收入有正向影响.从兼顾粮食安全与农民增收角度,提出提高政府粮食最低收购价、增加对"穷省"的合计转移性支付、形成"粮食生产+粮食加工"的产业带、促进农民人力资本升值等政策建议.
通过构建我国30个省份的乡村振兴系统与农产品绿色物流系统评价体系,探究两大系统的耦合作用机制,同时分析其耦合协调度的空间差异性及收敛性.研究表明,我国30个省份的乡村振兴系统与农产品绿色物流系统耦合协调度存在较大的空间差异性,呈现出东、中、西部依次递减状态;两系统的耦合协调度不存在δ收敛,但存在绝对β收敛以及条件β收敛,两系统耦合协调度的空间差异性不断扩大,同时存在低耦合协调度地区对高耦合协调度地区的"追赶效应",整体的空间差异性将会不断缩小;就具体影响因素而言,地区经济发展水平及产业结构对两系统的耦合协调度具有显著正向影响,但物流业的政府财政支持比重对两系统的耦合协调度的作用不显著.基于此,继续强化农业在地区产业结构中的基础作用,进一步完善农村交通基础设施,加强物流企业对于绿色技术创新的人才与技术投入以及与农产品产地合作,促进农产品绿色物流健康发展.
提高农户农村基础设施投入水平是减轻财政负担、提高公共品供给效率的关键.利用8省711户农户实地调研数据,运用双变量Probit模型分析村庄治理对农户农村基础设施投入的影响,并基于农户分化视角探究其异质性.结果表明,村庄治理资源对农户投入存在"挤出效应",治理水平存在"激励效应";村庄治理资源和治理水平对农户投入形式及类型的影响存在差异;进一步的异质性分析表明,治理水平对兼业农户和非农户投入的激励作用更显著,正式治理对大农户、高收入农户投入的激励作用更显著,非正式治理对小农户、低收入农户投入的激励作用更显著.因此,建议政府持续加强财政投入力度,有效利用村庄治理资源、提高村庄治理水平,突出农村基础设施建设重点和优先序,探索不同类型农户差异化投入激励机制,进而提高农户农村基础设施投入水平.
大数据时代如何让数据服务乡村治理,是推进乡村治理现代化进程的关键.大数据基于数据服务平台赋能乡村治理,以其可持续性、动态性和智慧性等三个特征促进乡村治理转向合理、有效、科学.通过厘清大数据赋能乡村治理的作用机理和现实困境,发现当前大数据赋能乡村治理面临大数据"技术壁垒"、农民"适应力低"、网络"双刃剑"和数据"低利用率"四个方面的挑战.基于此,从优化数字治理体系、注重大数据人才培育、完善数据共享机制、推进宣教奖励落实四个方面,探索大数据有效赋能乡村治理的实现路径.
