The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a significant opportunity for Ghanaian women and youth entrepreneurs by broadening market access, improving economic involvement, and promoting regional value chains. Women and youth constitute a substantial segment of Ghana's entrepreneurial ecosystem; yet, institutional impediments—such as elevated tariffs, non-tariff barriers, insufficient access to trade finance, and restricted regulatory compliance—persistently hinder their comprehensive involvement in cross-border commerce. This paper examines how the AfCFTA can act as a catalyst for tackling these difficulties, providing possible benefits in export expansion, job creation, and poverty alleviation.The results suggest that AfCFTA may elevate Ghana's exports by 21% by 2035, while intra-African trade is anticipated to expand by 94%. Women-led enterprises are projected to have a 10.5% gain in salaries, surpassing the 9.9% growth anticipated for men. Women are projected to benefit from approximately 57,000 new jobs, and wage gains for both unskilled labor and women are expected to be driven largely by expanded opportunities in agriculture. Additionally, AfCFTA is projected to reduce iceberg trade costs and customs processing times in Ghana by 4.3%, enhancing trade efficiency and competitiveness. The Protocol on Women and Youth in Trade promotes gender-sensitive trade policies, facilitating enhanced inclusion in value chains and the formalization of informal trade. The efficacy of these initiatives relies on intentional policy measures, such as enhanced market information, trade facilitation, and financial inclusion strategies specifically designed for women and youth.This study contends that although AfCFTA known to have large positive effects on trade creation between member countries, Ghana must provide women and youth Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) with effective ways for easier utilization of the agreement by confronting challenges like insufficient gender-disaggregated trade data, Non-Tariff Barriers, feeble trade associations, and deficient trade infrastructure. Recommendations encompass bolstering the support mechanisms of the National AfCFTA Coordination Office, reducing administrative costs, streamlining customs procedures, and improving financing access for firms run by women and youth. Through the implementation of targeted policies and capacity-building activities, Ghana can optimize the AfCFTA's potential to foster inclusive economic growth and empower women and youth entrepreneurs in regional commerce.
This study investigates cost dynamics of Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) engaged in joint production of rural and urban loans. Employing a translog cost function, the paper examines economies of scale, cost complementarities, and elasticities of substitution using three MFI categories: those offering both deposits and loans (Dep-MFIs), those offering only loans (Non Dep-MFIs), and the aggregate sample. The analysis utilizes data from 2008 to 2015, sourced from over 1,000 MFIs worldwide. Results indicate increasing economies of scale for all MFI categories, with Dep-MFIs demonstrating the most significant cost reductions over time. Urban loans are generally more expensive to produce for Non-Dep-MFIs, while rural loans remain costlier for Dep-MFIs and the aggregate sample. Despite positive but minimal cost complementarities, approximately one-fifth of Dep-MFIs experience negative cost complementarities, suggesting potential learning effects. These findings contribute to the literature on financial inclusion by offering empirical insights into cost efficiencies and production dynamics within MFIs.
This paper tests whether changes in the accumulated stocks of gross FDI and net FDI (after subtracting net payments of profits and interest) have a positive or negative effect on Mexican economic growth over the 1970-2020 period. The novelty of the paper resides in the fact that it is one of the few in the extant literature to examine the effect of changes in the stock of net FDI on economic growth as opposed to changes in the stock of gross FDI. The focus on Mexico is based on the availability of time series data for a sufficiently long period of time (51 years) and on its strategic economic and geopolitical importance to the United States stemming from its membership in the USMCA. The first section examines the relevant literature and motivates the discussion of the economic importance of reverse flows in the Mexican case. This is followed by a presentation of the conceptual model and its empirical counterpart. The fourth section presents the results for an error correction model during the 1970-2020 period along with actual and in-sample (historical) forecasts generated by the model. Tests for reverse “causality” or precedence are undertaken via the VECM Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity test and they suggest that FDI flows lead economic growth rather than the reverse. The last section is the conclusion.
The capacity of a country to collect taxes can significantly impact its economic development, regardless of its economic system and social-political order. Governments carefully consider the amount of tax revenue they need to collect when determining their short- and medium-term fiscal policy goals. This paper's goal is to examine the problem of estimating Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) tax capacity and to present evidence of the elements that impact tax capacities based on the opinions of tax practitioners in this area through gender analysis. The sample in this study used a simple random sampling method. The results of the research are the formulation of some conclusions regarding the tax capacity and specific factors of social benefits and security regulation and regulation of the shadow economy, therefore, it is necessary to change them in many aspects. In order to determine which factors have the biggest impact on tax capacity, the article uses both theoretical and empirical analyses. The empirical analysis uses a chi-square proportion test.
Food cost is a fundamental factor in reducing world hunger and minimizing the food insecurity problem. Agricultural commodities prices, especially grains, are determinants of food costs. Therefore, studying the behavior of commodity prices responsible for food security on the planet is essential for economic agents, especially for macroeconomic policy decision-makers. Food production and prices are related to energy prices, mainly through biofuels and fertilizers. Among energy sources, crude oil is one of the main ones in the world's energy matrix. Many studies on crude oil and food prices have been carried out relating energy and food or, more specifically, crude oil and agricultural commodity prices. This work examines the dynamic relationship between oil and grain commodity prices: rice, wheat, corn and soybeans. It also verifies the causality and cointegration between each grain and crude oil price return. Besides that, Autoregressive vector models were estimated to infer the impulse response function and the variance decomposition. The sample period corresponds to the interval between the two biggest crises of the century, the subprime financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic sanitary crisis. Thus, the data is not impacted by significant abnormal variations caused by these crises. The inferences show an interaction between crude oil prices practiced in the international market and food commodity prices.
This article revisits the role of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). It investigates, in particular, the institutional quality of the host countries, the number of cases brought for resolution, plus a more nuanced formulation of numbers of BITs, focusing on developing host countries.The analysis looks at more recent developments in BITs and incorporates economic freedom as a proxy of institutional quality of the host countries and considers the number of Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) in the BITs. We assume a non-linear relationship between BIT and FDI. Models are run using feasible generalized least squares (FGLS). Our new findings reveal that there is an optimum level of BITs in attracting FDI (higher and lower numbers do worse), constituting a re-appraisal of past analyses. Previous ISDS cases show a significant negative relationship with FDI. Economic Freedom has a strong positive and significant relationship with FDI/GDP, as previously found.
Optimal control theory can be employed to gain novel insights on the self-organization and structure of networks. We develop a Cournot differential game to analyse the evolutionary dynamics of firm connections within a network. We determine the feedback (Markovian) Nash equilibrium strategies and the steady state of the model and identify the key factors affecting the strategic choice of network firms. Our model confirms the empirical evidence that network firms tend to increase their own connections over time; moreover, such growing connections are mainly affected by the market size and the spillover rate.
In this work we estimate different dose-response functions linking FDI inflows received by developing countries with their economic growth. Although the impact of FDI on the economic growth of host countries has been widely investigated in literature, findings have been ambiguous. Our study proposes a novel ‘dose-response’ approach which allows the response of recipients to different amounts of treatment in terms of FDI inflow to be observed. Our findings show that the estimated dose-response functions are statistically significant for treatment values greater than 20%, after the treatment has been rescaled to a percentage measure of the maximum dose observed, and increasing at a decreasing rate, therefore suggesting three relevant results: a) a country receiving a greater amount of FDI inflows will present a higher economic growth; b) there might be a minimum amount of FDI inflows required to reach some policy effectiveness; c) the initial amounts of FDI inflow are more effective than the subsequent ones. Results will help policymakers to better isolate the effect of FDI on economic growth and conduct informed FDI cost-benefit analysis.
Agricultural investment contributes to increased productivity and production. This research analyzes the determinants of agricultural investment decisions in Burkina Faso. A double hurdle model is used to analyze the factors that explain agricultural investment and intensification decisions based on data collected in 2017 by the Laboratory of Quantitative Analysis of Development in Sahel (LAQAD-S). The results show that off-farm income and level of education positively affect household agricultural investment. Economic policy measures to develop income-generating activities and improve household education levels are crucial to raising the level of agricultural investment by rural households in Burkina Faso.
The linear-quadratic flexible accelerator model has been a staple for empirical analysis in the inventories literature. A key assumption of the model is that sales are a proxy for demand, thus inventories are generated in instances where production does not equilibrate with demand. We seek to improve upon the benchmark linear-quadratic model by introducing firm orders, thus allowing for differentiation between realized and expected demand. Estimation results suggest that the omission of orders heavily biases the coefficient sign and magnitude associated with sales. Furthermore, the estimated adjustment speed of orders is both larger in magnitude and statistical significance than for sales. The disparity in the rates of adjustment between expected and realized demand provide a new contribution towards understanding the adjustment speed puzzles pervasive in the literature. Finally, the addition of orders provides stronger evidence of a cointegrating relationship in a trivariate system of equations versus a standard bivariate system containing strictly inventories and sales.
Governments use direct transfers as a fiscal measure to stimulate economic activities during shocks. As COVID-19 continues to ravage economies globally, governments worldwide have responded with fiscal and monetary policies to manage the pandemic’s economic impact. In addition, the U.S. government has intervened with direct transfers to provide liquidity to prevent a prolonged shock. However, opinions are divided on the efficacy of the Keynesian stimulus policy. This study used a mixed-method research design to analyze the classical Keynesian model and compares it with the monetarist model to provide insight into the stimulus policy outcomes of the Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act of 2020 and subsequent policies used to manage the COVID-19 shock. Time-series data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) of the percentage changes in GDP, disposable personal income (DPI), and personal consumption expenditure (PCE), as well as unemployment rates (UR), interest rates (INT), and inflation rates (IFL), were collected and analyzed. The study used multiple regression (MR) to empirically examine the variables' relationships to ascertain both models’ short-term efficacy. The results suggest that DPI, PCE, and UR significantly predicted the percentage change in GDP in the Keynesian model, whereas, UR, INT, and IFL did not substantially predict the change in GDP in the monetarist model.
This paper examines the relationship among budget deficit, inflation rate and debt to GDP ratio from the perspective of Functional Finance Theory and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory). Using an overlapping generations model under monopolistic competition with bequest motive of consumers, mainly we will show the following results. • Under full employment with constant prices or inflation the debt to GDP ratio does not change from a period to the next period • The interest rate on government bonds should equal the nominal growth rate to achieve full employment with constant prices or inflation under balanced budget excluding interest payments on government bonds. • The inflation rate we need to maintain full employment under balanced budget excluding interest payments on government bonds is determined by the interest rate
We empirically conducted a distinct analysis of the efficiency of the stock market before and during the Covid-19 pandemic in Nigeria as well as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on several indicators of stock market performance. Data were collected on stock variables on monthly basis for the pre-Covid-19 era (2018M02 to 2020M01) and Covid-19 pandemic era (2020M02 to 2022M01) from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, while data on the numbers of daily new confirmed cases (New cases and deaths) as well as the government response stringency index on COVID-19 pandemic were obtained from Our World in Data (OWID). We leveraged numerous advantages of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate stock market efficiency before and during the Covid-19 pandemic for the purpose of comparison. Also, we employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Mixed Data Sampling (ADL-MIDAS) approach to conduct the impact analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic on stock market performance. We found that, in terms of efficiency, the stock market was more efficient during the Covid-19 pandemic than in the pre-Covid-19 era, being the only active market among other financial markets especially when several restrictions and total lockdown were imposed. In terms of returns and volatility, the study concluded that the Covid-19 pandemic did not significantly influence Nigeria’s stock market performance negatively. However, the government stringency measures had a significant positive impact on the stock market return in Nigeria. Our findings are instructive to policymaking and financial regulation.
We study the effects of physician, hospital, and market characteristics on length of stay and discharge destinations for cardiac inpatients in Florida hospitals in 2004, while controlling for patient characteristics. Using a competing risks hazard model, we analyze the determinants of whether patients are discharged home, to a skilled nursing facility, home under the supervision of a home health agency, or die within the hospital. Our study is unique in that we estimate a competing risks hazard model to identify the impact of physician education and training on hospital length-of-stay and post-hospital discharge destination. We find that physician characteristics are significantly related to transition rates to home discharge and that hospital and county characteristics impact the hazard rates for discharge to home health agencies and skilled nursing facilities.
Human beings are intelligent. More importantly, they are a social species capable of cooperation. Other animals in the kingdom can cooperate. But human beings further distinguish themselves by their innate ability to collaborate. They not only take care of their children they also take care of each other. The purpose of this paper is to compare the relative impacts of collaboration and intelligence on economic growth and development. We illustrate by data and analysis, that collaboration is superior to intelligence as a predictor of per capita real gross domestic product adjusted for purchasing power parity. Collaboration is found to be a statistically significant predictor and intelligence quotient (IQ) is not.
The problem of poverty in the developing countries and what makes Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) a region with the “highest number of poor people” in the world remains a topical issue that requires serious research attention. Following extant studies, in which the mediating role of financial sector development has not been taken into consideration in their finance- growth and poverty nexus, this study deviates by using two measures of poverty level: absolute and multidimensional poverty level; and at the same time provides comparative analyses at SSA sub-regional communities. Our findings reveal that the effects of inclusive growth on poverty reduction (both absolute and multidimensional level), for most sub-regions in SSA except Central African countries, are positive. While the mediating role of financial sector development appeared to be slightly different with mixed results. In West and Central African countries, the mediating role of the financial sector, though very weak, complements theinclusive growth effects on poverty reduction. On the contrary, financial sector development does not complement inclusive growth when it comes to poverty reduction in South African countries. Also, financial sector development does not complement the absolute poverty reduction effect of inclusive growth in the East African sub-region but the result is otherwise under multidimensional poverty reduction. Therefore, we recommend that financial sector development in most SSA countries should be improved upon through relevant monetary policy that promotes financial innovations, financial sector reforms, efficiency in financial inclusion across the region, and at the same time efforts should be geared toward directing some of the gains in financial sector development to inclusive growth-enhancing activities in southern African sub-region
In recent years, a school of economics called MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) has been attracting attention, but it has not been analyzed theoretically or mathematically. This study aims to provide a theoretical basis for the skeleton of the MMT argument, while maintaining the basics of the neoclassical microeconomic framework, such as utility maximization of consumers by means of utility functions and budget constraint, profit maximization of firms in monopolistic competition, and equilibrium of supply and demand of goods. Using a simple static model that includes economic growth due to technological progress, we will argue that: 1) a continuous budget deficit is necessary to maintain full employment when the economy is growing, and that this deficit does not have to be covered by future surpluses; 2) Inflation is caused when the actual budget deficit exceeds the level necessary and sufficient to maintain full employment. In order to avoid further inflation, it is necessary to maintain a certain level of budget deficit; 3) A shortfall in the budget deficit leads to recession and involuntary unemployment. To recover from this, a budget deficit that exceeds the level necessary to maintain full employment is required. However, since a continuous budget deficit is necessary after full employment is restored, the deficit created to overcome the recession does not need to be covered by future budget surpluses, nor should it be.
This study examines the extent and reasons for differences in occupational distributions by race and ethnicity in the U.S. labor market from 2007 to 2018. Using IPUMS data, the study found that racial differences in occupational distributions were lower than ethnic disparities in occupational distributions. Racial disparity in occupational distributions increased slightly, while the ethnic disparity in occupational distributions decreased from 2007 to 2018. Most importantly, racial and ethnic disparities in occupational distributions were found to be not only due to observed socio-demographic variables of workers but also due to other unexplained factors. The effect of unexplained variables had more pronounced effects on the racial differences in occupational distributions than on the ethnic differences in occupational distributions.
The aim of this paper was to identify key issues facing social entrepreneurship in Morocco through the study of five social enterprises in the province of Ouarzazate in order to evaluate the current situation of this sector and explore its different challenges as well as its future in terms of promotion, development and sustainability.The finding show that the problems and challenges that social enterprise face prove the fact that this accompaniment is not enough or not efficient. Therefore, there are cases of cooperatives who are struggling to survive because of given to them at the start of their activity was not helpful. Reinforcing the capacity-building trainings and mechanisms for social entrepreneurs will enable them to gain a better knowledge and abilities of increasing their chances of succeeding their projects and make them viable.
Using a logit model and quarterly data from 1962 to 2021, we test the forecasting power of the yield spread, a popular leading indicator, and show that forecasting models that include the entirety of the term structure of interest rates provide more accurate estimates of future economic downturns. We also show that models that only include the yield spread are implicitly imposing restrictions in the coefficients of the model resulting in lower predictive power and omitted variable bias issues.
