This study stems from a research project in the subfield of rural economic organization, with a focus on credit and irrigation, and on how public policy in these domains influenced agricultural development. The fieldwork was carried out in three states of the Indian Union between 1980 to 1982, including 14 villages in Andhra Pradesh. The survey covered villagers’ dealings in the markets for labor, tenancies, credit, and crops. It revealed not only diverse contractual forms in those markets, but also their interplay with access to credit and its terms. Understanding what motivates agents to contract in a particular way—or not at all—is essential in such a study. At the beginning and toward the close of the survey work, the principal investigators conducted interviews with focus groups, some respondents in the household sample, and various public officials, who were encouraged to speak freely. The first part of the monograph comprises an introductory chapter and two long travelogues, which provide structured accounts of the proceedings of those interviews. Next are formal analyses of various alternative contractual arrangements and the villagers’ choices among them. These are partly inductive; they draw on what respondents had to say about their options and decisions as well as received theory. Four topics are treated in detail: (1) the choice between employment as a casual laborer and as an attached farm servant; (2) the choice between sharecropping and fixed-rents paid in kind, with special reference to land irrigated by percolation wells; (3) the closely related matter of loans, subsidies, and corruption in connection with the profitability of investments in wells; and (4) the tying of loans for the cultivation of commercial crops to the arrangements for marketing them. The central importance of villagers’ outside options and access to credit emerges clearly.
Education has a large untapped potential to contribute to human capital, well-being, and wealth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). It had been at the heart of the region’s history and civilizations for centuries. The region invested heavily in education for decades but has not been able to reap the benefits of its investments. Despite series of reforms, the region remained stuck in a low learning – low skills level. There are four key sets of tensions that are holding back education in the MENA region. These tensions: Credentials and skills, discipline and inquiry, control and autonomy, and tradition and modernity are shaped by society and are reflected in schools and classrooms. If not addressed, MENA will continue to operate below its potential. Addressing these tensions and unleashing the potential of education requires a new framework with a three-pronged approach: A concerted push for learning that starts early for all children regardless of background, with qualified and motivated educators that leverages technology and uses modern approaches and monitors learning. It also requires a stronger pull for skills by all stakeholders in the labor market and society and involves coordinated multi-system reforms within and outside the education system. Finally, it requires a new pact for education at a national level with a unified vision, shared responsibilities and accountabilities. Education is everyone’s business and not just the responsibility of the education system. The push, pull, pact framework offers an opportunity for the MENA region to charge forward and reclaim its heritage of a learned region and meet the expectations and aspirations of its people. The current situation in MENA requires a renewed focus on education not just as a national priority for economic growth and social development but as a national emergency for stability, peace and prosperity.
Despite multiple past efforts, fragile Sub-Saharan African economies such as those of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Guinea still rank among the least diversified worldwide, with natural resources constituting a high share of their gross domestic product or exports. Large-scale production of gold for Mali, oil for Chad, uranium for Niger, and bauxite for Guinea offers substantial opportunities, but also has major shortcomings. Conclusive evidence shows poor economic performance by resource-rich but fragile Sub-Saharan African countries. The primary reason is not only their high vulnerability to external shocks, but the greed or grievances that typically lead to rents appropriation by a small group of elites in countries that are prone to conflict. Leveraging Export Diversifi cation in Fragile Countries explores the following questions: What are Mali’s, Chad’s, Niger’s, and Guinea’s main constraints to export diversification as perceived by key exporting firms? How it could be beneficial for these countries to target certain emerging export products? Are their current interventions to promote global value chain (GVC) adequate? What lessons can be extracted from specific cases? How can trade and logistic policies favor (or hamper) export diversification–led growth? The book lays the groundwork for effective step-by-step multidimensional policies to propel export diversification in fragile economies that are hindered not only by poor governance and weak institutions, but also by their landlocked position (except Guinea), small domestic markets, and business-unfriendly environments. Recognizing that traditional project interventions in these countries have had limited success, mainly due to their unidimensional focus on single components of an agricultural value chain, the book proposes a GVC 2.0 cluster-based approach to export diversification, in which complementary efforts attract foreign firms and public investment in support of agribusiness. Promising pilot examples of joint implementation plans among multiple donors, risk-sharing facilities, and agribusiness clusters provide valuable insights into recent global value chain developer interventions.
Most policy makers readily acknowledge the economic, environmental, and social benefits of moving freight and passengers by waterways. However, why do many countries struggle to develop and revive their inland waterways transportation (IWT)? One reason is because of the dearth of successful examples of IWT revival. Aside from the United States and Europe, which have been relatively successful, the experience of many emerging countries has been a tale of intensive use followed by total collapse of the IWT sector. However, the combination of societal, economic, and environmental imperatives is motivating reassessment, as countries look to develop sustainable transport systems and to curb greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. China’s experience has similarities to the experience of many countries and offers valuable lessons. This report is the result of an in-depth retrospective study of IWT in China and fills a gap in global knowledge. From an IWT system that carried less than 150 million tons in 1978, IWT in China carried 3.74 billion tons of cargo in 2018—six times more than either the European Union or the United States. China now has the busiest IWT system in the world. China’s leadership in IWT development started with years of investment in infrastructure that transformed lowgrade waterways, allowing larger vessels to use the waterways, which resulted in higher transport efficiency and lower cost. China also invested in development of skills and technical know-how. To date there are 127,000 km of inland waterways in China that have high-quality navigability and a good safety record. During the period of rapid economic development, China also adopted or developed internationally recognized technical innovations for river classification, vessel replacement, navigation technology, and environmental protection. What China achieved is informative. In particular, how and why China improved IWT provides valuable lessons for other countries.
Fragility and conflict pose a critical threat to the global goal of ending extreme poverty. Between 1990 and 2015, successful development strategies reduced the proportion of the world’s people living in extreme poverty from 36 to 10 percent. But in many fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS), poverty is stagnating or getting worse. The number of people living in proximity to conflict has nearly doubled worldwide since 2007. In the Middle East and North Africa, one in five people now lives in such conditions. The number of forcibly displaced persons worldwide has also more than doubled in the same period, exceeding 70 million in 2017. If current trends continue, by the end of 2020, the number of extremely poor people living in economies affected by fragility and conflict will exceed the number of poor people in all other settings combined. This book shows why addressing fragility and conflict is vital for poverty goals and charts directions for action. It presents new estimates of welfare in FCS, filling gaps in previous knowledge, and analyzes the multidimensional nature of poverty in these settings. It shows that data deprivation in FCS has prevented an accurate global picture of fragility, poverty, and their interactions, and it explains how innovative new measurement strategies are tackling these challenges. The book discusses the long-term consequences of conflict and introduces a data-driven classification of countries by fragility profile, showing opportunities for tailored policy interventions and the need for monitoring multiple markers of fragility. The book strengthens understanding of what poverty reduction in FCS will require and what it can achieve.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the youngest population of any region of the world, and that growing working-age population represents a major opportunity to reduce poverty and increase shared prosperity. But the region’s workforce is the least skilled in the world, constraining economic prospects. Despite economic growth, declining poverty, and investments in skills-building, too many students in too many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are not acquiring the foundational skills they need to thrive and prosper in an increasingly competitive global economy. This report examines the balancing act that individuals and countries face in making productive investments in both a wide range of skills – cognitive, socio-emotional, and technical – and a wide range of groups – young children through working adults – so that Sub-Saharan Africa will thrive.
Recognizing that services affect the ability of countries and their firms to compete on international markets, the World Bank’s Trade and Regional Integration Unit has developed an extensive work program to promote the performance of countries’ domestic services sectors, including services trade. Services for Trade Competitiveness presents selected applications of new methodologies that were developed to assess the competitiveness of countries’ services sectors, discern the types of barriers to services that exist in the regulatory environment, and identify the resulting policy implications. Its assessments are designed for a wide audience, including policy makers in developing countries and development practitioners in international organizations, policy-making institutions, and academia. The purpose of this book is to help developing countries make informed policy choices to increase their chances of benefiting from the increasing prominence of services in international trade.
Building a capable public service is fundamental to postconflict state building. Yet in postconflict settings, short-term pressures often conflict with this longer-term objective. To ensure peace and stabilize fragile coalitions, the imperative for political elites to hand out public jobs and better pay to constituents dominates merit. Donor-financed projects that rely on technical assistants and parallel structures, rather than on government systems, are often the primary vehicle for meeting pressing service delivery needs. What, then, is a workable approach to rebuilding public services postconflict? Paths between Peace and Public Service seeks to answer this question by comparing public service reform trajectories in five countries—Afghanistan, Liberia, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Timor-Leste—in the aftermath of conflict. The study seeks to explain these countries’ different trajectories through process tracing and structured, focused methods of comparative analysis. To reconstruct reform trajectories, the report draws on more than 200 interviews conducted with government officials and other stakeholders, as well as administrative data. The study analyzes how reform trajectories are influenced by elite bargains and highlights their path dependency, shaped by preconflict legacies and the specifics of the conflict period. As the first systematic study on postconflict public service reforms, it identifies lessons for the future engagement of development partners in building public services.
El Nino is a local warming of surface waters that takes place in the entire equatorial zone of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean of the Peruvian coast and which affects the atmospheric circulation worldwide. La Nina refers to the cold equivalent of El Nino. El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean that swings back and forth every 3 to 7 years on average. El Nino and La Nina can make extreme weather events more likely in certain regions. Predicting the life cycle and strength of El Nino and La Nina is critical for helping people plan for, avoid, or mitigate potential damages in every sector of society, including agriculture, fisheries, energy, water, transportation, and healthcare.
For millennia, the Mediterranean has been one of the most active trading areas, supported by a transport network connecting riparian cities and beyond to their hinterland. The Mediterranean has complex trade patterns and routes--but with key differences from the past. It is no longer an isolated world economy: it is both a trading area and a transit area linking Europe and North Africa with the rest of the world through the hub-and-spoke structure of maritime networks. Understanding how trade connectivity works in the Mediterranean, and elsewhere, is important to policy makers, especially those in developing countries in the Mediterranean, concerned with the economic benefits of large investment in infrastructure. Better connectivity is expected to increase trade with distant markets and stimulate activities in the hinterland. This book is a practical exploration of the three interdependent dimensions of trade connectivity: maritime networks, port efficiency, and hinterland connectivity. Because of the complexity and richness of maritime and trade patterns in the Mediterranean, the research book combines both a regional focus and globally scalable lessons. This book is intended for a wide readership of policy makers in maritime affairs, trade, or industry; professionals from the world of finance or development institutions; and academics. It combines empirical analysis of microeconomic shipping and port data with three case studies of choice of port (focusing on Spain, Egypt, and Morocco) and five case studies on hinterland development (Barcelona; Malta; Marseilles; Port Said East, Egypt; and Tanger Med, Morocco).
A unique strategic opportunity beckons Bangladesh. Dhaka, the economic powerhouse of the country, stands on the cusp of a dramatic transformation that could make it much more prosperous and livable. Today, Dhaka is prone to flooding, congestion, and messiness, to a point that is clogging its growth. But toward its east, where two major highway corridors will one day intersect, is a vast expanse of largely rural land. And much of it is within 6 kilometers of the most valuable parts of the city. The time to make the most of this eastward opportunity is now. Many parts of East Dhaka are already being developed in a haphazard way at an alarmingly rapid pace. Private developers are buying land and filling it with sand so they can build and sell new houses and apartments. Canals and ponds are disappearing, and the few narrow roads crossing the area are being encroached by construction. This spontaneous development could soon make East Dhaka look like the messy western part of the city, and retrofitting it later will be more difficult and costlier than properly planning and developing it now. Toward Great Dhaka: A New Urban Development Paradigm Eastward seeks to analyze how the opportunity of East Dhaka could be realized. Using state-of-the-art modeling techniques, the study simulates population, housing, economic activity, and commuting times across the 266 unions that constitute Greater Dhaka. It does so under various scenarios for the development of East Dhaka, but always assessing the implications for the entire city. The simulations suggest that pursuing a strategic approach to the development of East Dhaka would make Greater Dhaka a much more productive and livable city than continuing with business as usual. Based on current trends, Greater Dhaka would have a population of 25 million in 2035 and an income per capita of US$8,000 at 2015 prices. However, embracing a strategic approach would add 5 million people to the city. And, it would be a more productive city, with nearly 1.8 million more jobs and an income per capita of more than US$9,200 at 2015 prices, enough to put Dhaka on the map of global cities.
This book lays out a range of policy and implementation actions that are needed for countries in sub-Saharan Africa to meet the challenge of improving learning while expanding access and completion of basic education for all. It underscores the importance of aligning the education system to be relentlessly focused on learning outcomes and to ensuring that all children have access to good schools, good learning materials, and good teachers. It is unique in characterizing countries according to the challenges they faced in the 1990s and the educational progress they have made over the past 25 years. The authors review the global literature and contribute their extensive new analyses of multiple datasets from over three dozen countries in the region. They integrate findings about what affects children's learning, access to schooling, and progress through basic education. The book examines four areas to help countries better align their systems to improve learning: completing the unfinished agenda of reaching universal basic education with quality; ensuring effective management and support of teachers; targeting spending priorities and budget processes on improving quality; and closing the institutional capacity gap. It concludes with an assessment of how future educational progress may be affected by projected fertility rates and economic growth. The primary audience for this book are policy makers in Africa, practitioners, and partners concerned about building the knowledge capital of sub-Saharan Africa.
Eruptions of Popular Anger: The Economics of the Arab Spring and Its Aftermath sets out to answer three puzzles—the “Arab inequality” puzzle of civil uprisings in countries with low-to-moderate and stagnant economic inequality, the “unhappy development” paradox of increasing dissatisfaction at a time of moderate-to-rapid development, and the paradox of political violence in middle-income countries. The book’s empirical investigation rules out high and rising inequality as a reason for the Arab Spring uprisings. It shows that the real problem was the erosion in middle-class incomes and the growing dissatisfaction with the quality of life, the shortage of formal sector jobs, and corruption. Frustration was particularly high among the young, educated, middle-class residents in urban areas. The old social contract, which had delivered development results in the past and under which Arab governments provided public-sector jobs and subsidized services in return for subdued voice, was unsustainable and malfunctioning. The public sector could no longer be the employer of choice, but the private sector did not generate enough formal sector jobs, because of distortions that constrained its growth and policies that offered advantages to a few firms with political connections, limiting competition and private investment. The breakdown in the social contract increased the premium on freedom and created impetus for political change. This report shows that the Arab Spring revolutions and the subsequent spread of violence and civil wars in the post–Arab Spring Middle East and North Africa region can be traced to the broken social contract, institutional weaknesses, and regional divisions in societies polarized along ethnic and sectarian lines. The Arab Spring and its aftermath indicate the need for a new social contract under which governments promote private-sector job creation, design public services in a way that holds providers accountable to beneficiaries, and promote inclusion and good governance.
Natural resources have the transformational potential to support economic and political stability as well as contribute to national prosperity and economic development. However, in countries dependent upon natural resource sectors, poor management of these sectors often contributes to corruption, illicit financial flows (IFFs) and thus, poverty. Adequate transparency and accountability in regulatory management of these sectors is a challenge for resource rich countries. Poor licensing decisions in natural resource management can open a pandora’s box of corruption risks. This manual provides methods and options based on good practices to improve transparency, accountability, and integrity in the regulatory licensing process and integrity due diligence. The manual borrows models from the Basel Core Principle ‘fit and proper’ concept, and provides options for conducting effective (a) beneficial ownership; (b) criminal/legal; and (c) conflicts of interest checks, with a goal of integrating these into the regulatory licensing process. The manual also identifies common legal framework defects that can facilitate corruption risks, and offers options based on principles of regulatory integrity to reduce these risks. The good practices identified can help countries allocate limited financial resources in conducting thorough background checks in a cost-effective manner, as well as meet EITI’s requirements for public disclosure of beneficial owners and politically exposed persons. These strategies for reducing opportunities for corruption in extractive sectors can help reduce IFFs that can sap resources from the economy and inhibit a country’s ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
As urban growth and development continue at a breathtaking pace across the world, cities are increasingly bearing the brunt of conflicts, crises and disasters, which themselves are growing in number, magnitude and complexity. The convergence of these two trends – increasing urbanization and growing crises – demands an enhanced approach to city reconstruction and recovery, one that puts culture at its heart. Elaborated by the World Bank and UNESCO, this Position Paper outlines one such approach, the Framework for Culture in City Reconstruction and Recovery, also known as the CURE Framework. The CURE Framework is a culture-based approach to the process of city reconstruction and recovery in post conflict, post disaster and urban distress situations that accounts for the needs, values and priorities of people.
MIGA provides political risk insurance and credit enhancement for cross-border private sector investors and lenders, in support of projects in developing member economies across the world. Marking its 30th year of operation, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) has become the third leading institution among the MDBs in terms of mobilizing direct private capital to low- and middle-income countries. This year, MIGA issued a record $5.3 billion in political risk insurance and credit enhancement guarantees, helping finance $17.9 billion worth of projects in developing countries. New issuances and gross outstanding exposure—at $21.2 billion this year—almost doubled as compared to fiscal 2013.
While adoption of new technologies is understood to enhance long-term growth and average per-capita incomes, its impact on lower-skilled workers is more complex and merits clarification. Concerns abound that advanced technologies developed in high-income countries would inexorably lead to job losses of lower-skilled, less well-off workers and exacerbate inequality. Conversely, there are countervailing concerns that policies intended to protect jobs from technology advancement would themselves stultify progress and depress productivity. This book squarely addresses both sets of concerns with new research showing that adoption of digital technologies offers a pathway to more inclusive growth by increasing adopting firms’ outputs, with the jobs-enhancing impact of technology adoption assisted by growth-enhancing policies that foster sizable output expansion. The research reported here demonstrates with economic theory and data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico that lower-skilled workers can benefit from adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies biased towards skilled workers, and often do. The inclusive jobs outcomes arise when the effects of increased productivity and expanding output overcome the substitution of workers for technology. While the substitution effect replaces some lower-skilled workers with new technology and more highly-skilled labor, the output effect can lead to an increase in the total number of jobs for less-skilled workers. Critically, output can increase sufficiently to increase jobs across all tasks and skill types within adopting firms, including jobs for lower-skilled workers, as long as lower-skilled task content remains complementary to new technologies and related occupations are not completely automated and replaced by machines. It is this channel for inclusive growth that underlies the power of pro-competitive enabling policies and institutions—such as regulations encouraging firms to compete and policies supporting the development of skills that technology augments rather than replaces—to ensure that the positive impact of technology adoption on productivity and lower-skilled workers is realized.
Brazil approaches its 2018 election with an economy that is gradually recovering from the deepest recession in its recent economic history. However, for many Brazilians, the recovery has not yet translated into new and better jobs, or rising incomes. This book explores the drivers of future employment and income growth. Its key finding: Brazil needs to dramatically improve its performance across all industries in terms of productivity if the country is to provide better jobs for its citizens and generate lasting gains in incomes growth for all. This is particularly important as Brazil is aging rapidly and the boost the country has enjoyed thanks to its young and growing labor force in the past decades will disappear in just a few years’ time. The book recommends a change in the relationship between the state and business, from rewarding privileged incumbents to fostering competition and innovation—together with supporting workers and firms to adjust to the demands of the market. The book is addressed to all scholars and students of Brazil’s economy, especially those interested in why the country’s economic performance has not kept up with earlier achievements since the reintroduction of democracy in the mid-1980s. Its conclusions are urgent and pertinent but also optimistic. With the right policy mix, Brazil could enter the third century of its independence in 2022 well on track to join the ranks of high income countries.
The Dominican Republic stands out as a fast growing economy that has not been able to generate a commensurate reduction in poverty. Three reasons have been raised before to explain this conundrum: (i) a labor market that does not translate productivity gains into salary increases; (ii) a domestic economy with weak inter-sectoral linkages; (iii) and a public sector that does not spend enough nor particularly well to reduce poverty. In addition, the country remains largely exposed to natural disasters and exogenous shocks that, if not mitigated properly, may affect the sustainability of growth in the medium and longer terms. This book assembles a collection of empirical analyses that explore three complementary hypotheses that could help understand why the Dominican Republic continues, to this date, experiencing high economic growth rates with limited poverty reduction. The first hypothesis is concerned with testing whether the observed pattern of fast economic growth cum persistent poverty in the DR is partly driven by a poverty methodology that does not account for price variation that affects distinctly the consumption patterns of low-income and better-off households. If that hypothesis holds, the DR may face a situation in which household income for households at the bottom of the distribution is underestimated. The second hypothesis tests whether the pattern of specialization in the DR might be such that it does not favor unskilled labor. If that hypothesis holds, then returns to capital are probably much higher than returns to labor which would be an indication that the DR has had a comparative advantage in products that are capital intensive instead of labor-intensive. The third hypothesis investigates whether poverty and wage inequality in the DR are affected not only by immigration but also by emigration. The contribution of the volume, therefore, lies in precisely offering a more careful exploration of specific issues around common explanations for the shortcomings of the DR in reducing poverty on a faster basis.
Moving toward universal access to financial services is within reach, thanks to new technologies, transformative business models, and ambitious reforms. Instruments such as e-money accounts and mobile accounts, along with debit cards and low-cost traditional bank accounts, can significantly increase financial access for those who are excluded. Bringing e-Money to the Poor: Successes and Failures examines the lessons of success from four country case studies of “gazelles”?Kenya, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Thailand?that leapt from limitation to innovation by successfully enabling the deployment of e-money technology. These countries have thereby transformed the landscape of financial access to their poor. In addition, two country case studies (Maldives and the Philippines) yield lessons learned from constraints that stalled e-money deployments. Because technology is not a silver bullet, the case studies also explore other strategic elements that need to be in place for a country to expand access to financial services through digital technology.
